BlogFedEx St. Jude Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s the home stretch of the 2024 PGA Tour season. After 36 events since January, for many, their season is over. Guys like Davis Riley (72), who won at Colonial but couldn’t get into the top 70. To think he was 55th after his win, he just played terribly. (he wasn’t the only winner in 2024 not to make it into the playoffs; Harry Hall, Brice Garnett, and Chris Gotterup also won’t play)  Keith Mitchell has played in the FedExCup every year since his rookie year in 2018, but he will be home watching after finishing 77th. How about Lucas Glover (78th)? Last year, he won the Wyndham and FedEx St. Jude, but this year, he didn’t chalk up a top ten, as he will be home for the first time since he did not qualify in 2018. C.T. Pan (93rd) has played in the FedEx since 2021 but will miss this year, primarily due to injuries. K.H. Lee (101st) has also played in the FedEx since 2019 but, despite three top-ten finishes, will not play. Matt Kuchar (105th) has played in every FedEx playoff event for 17 years, but the streak is broken as he needed to win at Wyndham but just had a tough final day. Rickie Fowler (108th), who seemed to get his game back last year, winning the Rocket Mortgage and getting to the Tour Championship, goes for 16th in the rankings to (108th).

Last year, they would have been in the playoffs, but with the new system of just 70, more players will be watching the playoffs on TV than playing in them.

Tournament information:

This is the 58th annual event for the recently changed FedEx St. Jude Championship. Originally dubbed the Westchester Classic, the tournament has undergone a slew of name changes over the years. Just a decade after Jack Nicklaus captured the inaugural tournament in 1967, the tournament became the American Express Westchester Classic.

In 1979, American Express pulled out as title sponsor three years later, and the event became known as the Manufacturers Hanover Westchester Classic. The name lasted until 1990, when Buick became the title sponsor. In 2005, Barclays took over as chief sponsor of the event, which lasted for 12 years. Northern Trust took over sponsorship in 2017 and gave it up in 2021.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship, which used to be played the week before or after the U.S. Open in June, was shifted to the middle of August to accommodate being the first event in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

In the first year of the playoffs, Westchester was used, and Steve Stricker won. Since then, FedEx St. Jude moved away from Westchester and never returned. There were many reasons for this, but most of them were related to logistics rather than the course itself.

The future of FedEx St. Jude changed a bit with the new schedule coming out for 2019. With Dell Technology leaving, the Boston market had no PGA Tour events. But FedEx St. Jude stepped up and said they would put TPC Boston into its rota, and the course held the event in 2020. After that, it was supposed to move around the New York and New Jersey area, but it was played for the last time in the New York, New Jersey area at Liberty National Golf Club.

Course information:

• TPC Southwind
• Germantown, Tenn.
• 7,243 yards     Par 35-35–70

The TPC at Southwind opened in 1988 and became the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic in 1989. The course was designed by Ron Prichard, with help from Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. It opened as a small, tight course with many trees, bunkers, and water hazards. Originally, Southwind featured zoysia grass on the fairways and bent grass on the greens. The course stayed this way until after the 2004 FedEx St. Jude Classic. Following the tournament’s conclusion, the course closed for renovation.

All of the greens were redone during the renovation, and the grass was switched from bentgrass to Champion Bermuda Grass. Many of the fairways were narrowed and re-contoured to make an already tight course even tighter. Additionally, 15 new bunkers were added, bringing the total number of sand traps to 96, three of the ten water hazards were enlarged, and more than 125 trees were planted on the course. Overall, the course yardage increased by more than 200 yards to its length of 7,244 yards. After the renovation, the course’s rating was 75.9, with a slope rating of 138.

Last year, TPC played to an average of 68.64, making it the 39th hardest course on tour. Still, the holes are tough, as four of the last seven holes were played over par last year. Four of the holes were among the toughest 400 holes on the PGA Tour in 2023, with the par 4 fifth hole being the 187th hardest with a 4.146 average.

Before the 2021 WGC event, the course saw all the bunkers completely overhauled, with several eliminated while a couple were added. But overall, the course played the same way in 2020. For most of the field, the course is delightful to play. If there is a key to winning at TPC Southwind, it’s hitting lots of greens. Eight out of the last 13 winners finished in the top ten in Greens in Regulation. Last year, Lucas Glover was T-37th, hitting only 46 of 72. But in 2022, Will Zalatoris was T-8th, hitting 51 of 72 greens. In 2016 Daniel Berger was 1st in that stat.

Which player has done the best at TPC Southwind over the last six years?

Over the last six years, TPC Southwind has held three different events: the FedEx St. Jude Classic, the WGC-Fed Ex St. Jude, and now the FedEx St. Jude Championship. So, to judge who has played the best on the course over the last ten years, we have provided this list of those in the field and their records at TPC Southwind.

62 of the 70 have played at TPC Southwind.

This year’s rookies are Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Max Greyserman, Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, and Davis Thompson.

Of the 62 that have played before at TPC Southwind, Billy Horschel has played the most with 12 starts; his best finish was T-7th in the 2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic. Of all the players in the field, his five top-ten finishes are the most. Of those in the field that have won at TPC Soundwind, Harris English won the 2013 FedEx St. Jude Classic. Will Zalatoris won the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship, while Justin Thomas won the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. These three are the only winners of this course, which is hard to believe.

• Of the favorites, Scottie Scheffler has played at Southwind six times, and his best is 14th at the 2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
• Xander Schauffele has played six times, and his best finish was T-6th at the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, which was his only top-10.
• Rory McIlroy has played seven times at Southwind and has four top-12 finishes, the best of which was T-3rd last year.
• Some other things to watch: Russell Henley has finished in the top ten twice in six starts; last year, he was T-6th.
• Like Will Zalatoris, he won last year and was T-8th in 2021.
• Patrick Cantlay has played five times and was runner-up last year.
• Also, like Hideki Matsuyama, who was runner-up in 2021, Collin Morikawa was T-5th in 2022.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Southwind.

This is based on the most important stats for the TPC Southwind, data from last year’s FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
TPC Southwind has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 1989. Between then and 2018, it was the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Between 2019 and 2021, it hosted the World Golf Championship FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Starting in 2022, it became the first event of the FedExCup playoffs, which three years ago was the Northern Trust played in the New York area.
The one surprising aspect of TPC Southwind was that many felt it would be a more challenging test. The last year that the FedEx St. Jude Classic was played at TPC Southwind was in 2018; the course played to a 70.52 scoring average and was ranked 11th on the PGA Tour. Since course stats were kept in 2003, the oddity of TPC Southwind was that it always played over par. So when the WGC-FedEx was moved to the course in 2019, it played to a 69.50 average. Many wondered what had happened to the course. The course played again under par with a 69.55 average in 2020 and was ranked 14th hardest. In 2021, the average went down to 69.05, ranking 33rd on the PGA Tour. In 2022, it was 69.16 and the 30th hardest course on tour; last year, it was 68.64 and the 39th hardest course. So why did it all of a sudden become such an easy course? There are a couple of reasons for the drop: first, with the event played at the end of July and August, it didn’t rain as much, so the rough wasn’t as high and lush as it was when the old FedEx St. Jude Classic, which was played in mid-June. Another reason for the lower scores is that the old FedEx St. Jude had fields of 156, while the field for the World Golf Championship and now the first leg of the playoffs is under 80. In 2022, there were 120 players in the field; last year, it went down to 70, and since they are the best players in golf, look for the scoring average to be in the 68.50 area.

Memphis has been pretty dry, hot, and muggy of late; since the start of July, they have only gotten 3 inches of rain, with 2 inches of it coming on July 19th and half an inch on July 27th, the last time it rained in Memphis. Now, they are supposed to get some rain on Wednesday at TPC Southwind, but that is it for the rest of the tournament week, and the Wednesday rain will not make the rough harder. So, with the lack of rain, the rough has yet to grow and become lush like it usually is in June.

In looking at our four categories, our first for TPC Southwind are strokes gained tee-to-green. Last year, the course ranked 28th in driving accuracy and 21st in greens in regulation, while winner Lucas Glover was T-12th in driving accuracy and T-37th in greens in regulation, so he was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2022, the course ranked 20th in driving accuracy and 18th in greens in regulation, while winner Will Zalatoris was T-34th in driving accuracy and T-8th in greens in regulation, so he was 18th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2021, the course ranked 25th in driving accuracy and 20th in greens in regulation, while Abraham Ancer, who won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude in 2021, was T-10th in driving accuracy and T-5th in greens in regulation, so he was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. During the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude, the course ranked 22nd in driving accuracy and 9th in greens in regulation, while winner Justin Thomas was T-12th in driving accuracy and T-7th in greens in regulation, so he was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Over the years, this has been an essential stat for the champions. In 2019, Brooks Koepka won and was 6th. In 2018, Dustin Johnson won and was 1st in this category. The same with the winner, Daniel Berger, in 2017 and 2016; he was the first in both years. In 2015, champion Fabian Gomez ranked 1st, which is consistent and the reason that strokes gained tee-to-green is essential.

Our 2nd essential stat is one-putt percentage; TPC Southwind ranked 54th (That means there are more one-putts). Now, it was 49th last year and again ranked 49th in 2021. For some more years, the PGA Tour played at TPC Southwind. It was 36th in 2020, 47th in 2019, and 45th in 2018. This means many players had many one-putts, probably because the greens at TPC Southwind are large at 12,276 Square feet. Last year’s winner, Lucas Glover, was T-19th in this stat with 34 one-putts. In 2022, the course ranked 49th, while winner Will Zalatoris was T-10th in this stat with 35 one-putts. In the year before that, 2021, Ancer was T-18th in this stat with 34 one-putts. In 2020, Justin Thomas could have done better in this state; he ranked T-51st with only 29 one-putts. The previous year, Brooks Koepka was T-1st with 42 one-putts. In 2018, Johnson ranked T-30th; in 2016, he was T-52nd, while Gomez ranked T-2nd in 2015. Still, the norm is for the best players to have a lot of one-putt greens.

Our third important stat is scrambling; players will miss greens and get it up and down. The course ranked 50th last year, 38th in 2021, 34th in 2021, and 31st in 2020. In 2019, it ranked 37th and 31st in 2018. Last year’s winner, Glover, ranked 1st while the winner in 2022, Zalatoris, ranked 7th; in 2021, Ancer ranked 1st; Justin Thomas was 6th in 2020, while in the previous year, Koepka was 1st while Johnson was 4th in 2018; t-24th in 2016, and Gomez was 8th in 2015.

Our final category was birdie average; last year, it ranked T-36th, while in 2022, it ranked 30th. in 2021, it ranked T-32nd; in 2020, it ranked 16th; in 2019, it ranked T-24th. In 2018, it ranked 10th; in 2017, it ranked T-10th; it was 14th in 2016; and in 2015, it was 11th, which means it was hard to make birdies as the field average was 3.92 birdies per round last year while in 2022, it averaged 3.84 birdies per round. In 2021 it averaged 3.93 per round, 3.70 in 2020, 3.73 in 2019, 3.27 in 2018, 3.11 in 2017, 3.16 in 2016 and 3.15 in 2015. For Glover last year, he made 16 birdies and ranked T-26th. In 2022, Zalatoris made 21 birdies and ranked T-3rd. In 2021, Ancer made 20 birdies, which ranked T-6th. In 2020, Thomas made 19 birdies, ranking T-8th, while in 2019, Koepka averaged 5.25 birdies per round and was 3rd. Johnson also averaged 5.25 in 2018 and ranked 1st; in 2016, it was 5.00 and T-1st, while Gamez averaged 5.00 and was T-2nd in 2015.
So yes, TPC Southwind can be considered a shotmaker type, of course, and we will probably get a shotmaker winner. But the fact is, with hard fairways making the course play short, the course will see a lot of low scoring.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of hitting fairways and greens. So, finding a player that will do well in this stat is important.

*One-Putt Percentage: The figure that shows how many times a player one-putts a green.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round

The 70 of the 70 players from this year’s FedEx St. Jude field with stats from 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,400
• Xander Schauffele – $11,400
• Rory McIlroy – $11,100
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,200
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,800
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,700
• Viktor Hovland – $9,500
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,300
• Corey Conners – $9,100
• Russell  Henley – $9,000

A week in which we will have to work hard to find some good picks. Frankly, it’s less cut and dry than we all hope. Yes, Scottie Scheffler has been close to perfect, but you have to wonder if he can keep it up. As for Xander, he disappointed us at the Olympics after what he did at the British. Then you have Rory McIlroy; we have talked a lot about him over the summer; you don’t know when he will be great and win or play great, but he makes errors that prevent him from winning. We must take it easy and remember that TPC Southwind is a different course with different points that make a player good or bad. This is another great challenge and one that anything can and will happen.

We can usually find a marquee name or a promising player for under $9,000. However, this week, we need to exercise caution in our selections. At the British Open, I stressed the importance of careful selection, whether it’s a high-profile player like Scottie Scheffler at $12,400 or Rory McIlroy at $11,100. These picks look promising on paper, but as we saw, Rory missed the cut, and Scottie finished T-7th. This week, we must approach our selections thoughtfully and cautiously.

Scottie Scheffler, at $12,400, has always been a great pick; even at the British Open, he earned 67.5 points. Besides the U.S. Open, Scottie has been near perfect and is always a great choice. The one thing that will prevent me from picking him is his record at TPC Southwind. In six starts, he missed the cut twice, once in 2022. His best finish was 14th in 2021, and he was T-31st last year. Just think, like Pinehurst, there may be better courses for him, so it’s best to pass on him. I can see my email light up again when he wins and earns 150 points; oh well. I have to say Xander Schauffele at $11,400, was a big disappointment in France. Le Golf National is a lot like TPC Southwind; Xander has yet to play well at Southwind other than a T-6th in 2020. But since then, he was T-46th in 2021, T-57th in 2022, and T-24th in 2023, so I will pass on Xander this week. Now you have Rory McIlroy at $11,100. He missed the cut at the British and was T-5th in France. I like him because of his good finishes at TPC Southwind; he was T-3rd last year and T-4th in 2019. Now, not to put a wrench in things, Rory missed the cut at TPC Southwind in 2022, so buyer beware. Ludvig Aberg at $10,200 is not for me; he has had some problems this summer, and it showed it missing the cut at the British Open and finished T-18th at the Olympics. Collin Morikawa at $10,000 has frustrated me since he was runner-up at the Memorial. Since then, he has struggled; yes, he was T-4th at the Scottish Open, but in the other four events, he has struggled; in the Olympics, he was T-24th. As for Morikawa at TPC Southwind, he was T-5th in 2022 and T-13th last year, but I can’t go for him this week. Now, Tommy Fleetwood at $9,800 may be a great choice. Since finishing T-3rd at the Masters, he has only one top-ten finish, which was in France for the Olympics. He was 2nd. But I like him this week; he has been good at TPC Southwind, T-4th in 2019, and T-3rd last year. I also like Patrick Cantlay at $9,700. His year has been his worst in quite a while, but since missing the cut at the Memorial, he was T-3rd at the U.S. Open, T-5th at the Travelers, and T-25th at the British Open. But he was runner-up last year at TPC Southwind, and we know that the next three weeks are essential for Cantlay to salvage his season. Everyone knows that Viktor Hovland, at $9,500, is an automatic no for me.  I do like Hideki Matsuyama at $9,300.  TPC Southwind is his type; he is an excellent shotmaker and was T-2nd at Southwind in 2021 and T-16th last year. Hideki played well at the Olympics, finishing 3rd, and the course is similar to TPC Southwind. Corey Conners at $9,100 is a hard pick. Yes, he makes a lot of cuts and hasn’t missed one since the U.S. Open last year. But he has no top tens between last year’s Tour Championship and the PGA Championship. But since then, he has been 6th in Canada, T-9th at the U.S. Open, and T-9th at the Olympics. What changed my mind about him was that he was T-6th in this event last year. Russell  Henley at $9,000 could be the longshot of marquee players. He was T-7th at the U.S. Open, 5th at the British Open, and T-6th last year at TPC Southwind.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

So, I need to make a lot of good picks in this price range.  Tony Finau at $8,800 is a good choice; he was T-5th at TPC Southwind in 2022 and has played well of late, including a T-3rd at the U.S. Open and T-5th at the Travelers.  Sungjae Im at $8,700, is a player that only a few will pick but should be one of your picks.  He has played well since missing the cut at the PGA.  He was T-4th at the Scottish Open and T-7th at the British.  At Southwind was 12th in 2022 and T-6th last year.  Billy Horschel at $8,500, is a good pick; he played well last week at the Wyndham and were great at the British.  But like his record at TPC Southwind, he has five top-ten finishes.  Justin Thomas, at $8,400, could be a great pick since he has won at TPC Southwind and has shown signs of playing better since the Masters.  Aaron Rai at $8,200, will be a trendy pick; he is a story like Lucas Glover last year.  We remember how Glover found his putting touch over the summer and played great, winning the Wyndham and then the following week at TPC Southwind.  For Rai, who has putted well since the British Open, has played great, and I can see him doing what Glover did last year.  I like Adam Scott at $7,700.  He has played better over the summer and was 2nd at the Scottish Open and T-10th at the British Open.  But I like him because of his TPC Southwind record, he was T-5th last year.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the FedEx St. Jude

This week gives you a lot of choices in the $7,500 to $8,900 category, but only some bargains. The first one is Jason Day at $7,500. We have been waiting to hear from him since he last won 15 months ago in Dallas. It’s not that he has poorly played; he just hasn’t contended much. Since missing the cut at the U.S. Open, his game is getting better; he was T-13th at the British Open and could have been closer if he didn’t hit 76 in the third round. He was solid at the Olympics, finishing T-9th. His record is okay at Southwind; he finished T-6th in 2020, so he can play well. But you take him because there are few stellar players at this low point range, so at least you know what you are getting from him. Akshay Bhatia at $7,300, has played well this summer, and I can see him doing well this week on a course he has never played on. Taylor Pendrith at $7,100, is also someone to watch, he was 5th in his last two starts at Barracuda and 3M, so watch him. Maverick McNealy at $6,900, was T-3rd in his last start at the 3M; he has been solid for most of the year. The best in the low price range could be Cam Davis at $6,800. Since winning at the Rocket Mortgage, he was T-26th in Scotland and T-19th at the 3M, but I like him because of his Southwind play. Was T-13th in 2022 and T-6th last year. Also, watch Eric Cole at $6,700; after a slow start, he has played well. He was T-6th at the Rocket Mortgage, T-7th at the John Deere, and shot a final round 63 at Wyndham to finish T-7th. Our last person to watch is Victory Perez at $6,400; he has played well of late, including a 3rd in Canada, T-10th at the Scottish and 4th at the Olympics, and finished T-33rd at Wyndham but didn’t play poorly.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Picking a winner should be more about feel than strategy. The most important stat to look for is players high up in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  It’s no surprise that 15 of the last 20 winners have been in the top ten in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, with eight leading that stat, including 2020 winner Justin Thomas, 2018 winner Dustin Johnson, and 2017 champion Daniel Berger. So for this week, Scottie Scheffler is 1st on this year’s list, followed by #2 Rory McIlroy, #3 Xander Schauffele, #4 Hideki Matsuyama, #5 Tony Finau, #7 Aaron Rai, #8 Corey Conners and #9 Collin Morikawa.
• In trying to pick a winner, look at those who seem to be just starting to play well. Maybe this means those who have had a good finish in the British Open, 3M Open Rocket Mortgage, or even the Wyndham. If that is the case, we just can’t forget about Aaron Rai, who has been close to flawless all summer.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium. For example, hitting lots of greens in a U.S. Open goes a long way in this event. In the last 25 years, six champions led the greens hit category, and 20 of the 25 were in the top 11 in this category. Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
• Look for a winning score of 266 this week. That’s the average winning total since TPC Southwind was first used in 1989. Last year, Lucas Glover won with a 265 total.
• Since 1989, nine champions in Memphis (playing at TPC Southwind) (Dicky Pride in 1994, Notah Begay III in 2000, Dustin Johnson in 2012, Harris English in 2013, Daniel Berger in 2016 & ’17, Brooks Koepka in 2019, Justin Thomas in 2021 and Will Zalatoris in 2022) were younger than 30.  Six were over 40, the oldest being Lucas Glover last year at 43 years, nine months, and one day old. Next up is Woody Austin in 2007 at 43 years, four months, Greg Norman in 1997 at 42 years, four months, and 2006 winner Maggert, who was 42 years, three months. 2021 winner Abraham Ancer was 30 years, five months, 17 days old. In 2019, Brooks Koepka was 29 years, two months, and 25 days, while in 2016 (also won in 2017), Daniel Berger was 23 years, two months, and five days old, making him tied for the youngest winner in Memphis. Bob Lunn, in 1968, was also 23 years, two months, and five days old. Another oldie was in 2011 when Harrison Frazar was 40 days short of his 40th birthday, while Brian Gay in 2010 was 37 years, one month old.

Last but not least, the weather.  

• It’s Memphis, and it’s August, so of course, it’s going to be hot, muggy, and stormy. Each day will be in the low-90s, but it will feel more with very high humidity. No real rain is forecast, but at this time of year, Memphis gets afternoon thunderstorms. There is very little wind in the forecast, making it hotter, which will lower the scores. The course will be firm and fast each day.