BlogBMW Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

I have to say that the FedEx St. Jude Championship turned out better than some thought. This new format is in its second year in reducing the field from 125 to 70. It made the event cleaner. Not only did it create more interest for Wyndham that the field was reduced to 70, but we always noticed the 55 players that weren’t on the field. But the most significant race was on Sunday of the players getting into the top 50. In previous years, getting into the top 30 was important because it got players into the majors. Frankly, it was good, but most of those in the top 30 were already exempt from the majors. So, the significant change is what players get when they get into the top 50. Now, to get into the majors, you have to be in the top 30, but what is on the line for getting into the top 50 is being exempt from the eight signature events, which have 20 million dollar purses.

We had a big race to see who got into the top 50 after Memphis. Going into the final round, these players were outside the top 50 and looking in: Eric Cole (54) and Nick Dunlap (67). On the other end of the spectrum, these players were inside the top 50 and had to hold on: Tom Kim (43) and Mackenzie Hughes (48). A final round 63 for Eric Cole helped him move up 37 places as he finished T-18th. Dunlap shot 69 and finished T-5th; it was good enough to give him the points to finish 48th. For Mackenzie Hughes, he finished 58th of the 70 players and dropped from 48 to 52. However, the most significant change came with Tom Kim. When he stepped onto the 16th tee, all he had to do was play the last three holes in two over. But Kim played them in five over and, just like that, found himself out of the picture as he finished 51st and has the next few weeks off. For Kim, the time will give him time to realize how serious his last three holes could cost him. It will be at least $340,000 if he finished last in all eight signature events. Let’s say that if Kim finishes 25th in each of the eight signature events, he will win just over $1.5 million, so yes, that bogey-double-double finish will hit Kim in his wallet. Now, for Kim, he has an out, a small print rule in which a player in the top 30 of the World Rankings gets into signature events. Since Kim is 18th in the world rankings, he gets in but has to stay in the top 30. Hey, Justin Thomas never made the list for getting into signature events last year, but he got to play them because of his top 30 ranking, making a great season for Thomas. So Kim will probably have to play in two or three fall events. No problem. He will defend in Las Vegas in October but must still find those other two spots. For Mackenzie Hughes, he will have to play in the fall since he is 64th in the rankings and, even with a win, would not make it into the top 30. So now we are seeing the importance of getting into the top 50.

Castle Rock

When Castle Rock first held the International, I was fortunate to know some folks who ran the tournament. So, I was lucky to play the course three times and attend two Internationals.  Castle Rock is one of my favorite courses; it has the same beauty as Pebble Beach, Turnberry, or even a European Club in Ireland. The difference between these three and Castle Rock is an ocean. But Castle Rock has the backdrop of the Rocky Mountains, so its beauty is just a bit different. But like Augusta, it has plenty of flowers off the fairways, the same with Castle Rock, so yes, the course is one of the most scenic in the world.

What Castle Rock will offer is a different type of challenge. The course is an ego trip in which we will see 300-plus drives on every hole. Don’t be surprised to see drives of 350 and even 370 yards on some straightaway holes like one and ten. That’s what you get on a course that is 6,200 feet in altitude. Another thing is how much longer you get off of your irons. We will see 7-irons that go 200 to 230 yards. Another thing is that three of the four par 5s will play over 600 yards. The first hole is 662 yards, and we could see a player going for the green in two with a five, six, and even seven iron; that is what happens when you play a course at this elevation. The 532-yard, par 5 17th hole will play the easiest at 532, which will be a driver and flip wedge for most players. All four of the par 3s are 200 yards and longer. Of the ten par 4s, the shortest will be 439 yards on the 15th hole. The 10th is the longest par 4 at 545. So when you see that the course is 8,130, that’s not a misprint, but at the same time, it’s not realistic. The course will play like it’s 7,300 yards at sea level. Still, those that hit is long will have a significant advantage this week.

Buyer beware

For years, we have seen Hideki Matsuyama play well; unfortunately, because of back problems, we have been cheated of his true abilities. Matsuyama is labeled the best Asian player of all time; if he could have only been healthy, he could easily be on the same level as Scheffler, McIlroy, and Schauffele. We all know what a great ball striker Matsuyama is; along with his back, another Achilles heel for Matsuyama is putting. It’s alright, but it’s a notch below average. That has held him back, but when he gets into a groove like he did at the 2021 Masters, we see him dominating. Watch Matsuyama on a putting green. He is notorious for bringing between a half dozen to a dozen putters onto the green, trying them all out. Since he came out on tour a decade ago, he has always tinkered with different putters but rarely changes. This week was somewhat similar; the big difference was that he had a new Scotty Cameron in the bag when he started playing. If you look at Matsuyama’s stats, in Strokes Gained Total, he has never been worse than 48th in 2021 and has never been higher than 27th in any other year. However, in looking at Strokes Gained Putting, his best two years were 78th in 2018 and 86th in 2015. But after that, it’s always high. This year he is 105th, in 2023 he was 119th, in 2022 114th, in 2021 he was 175th, in 2020 170th.  So putting, along with his dodgy back, has been his two biggest problems.

At the St. Jude, Matsuyama had one of his best putting weeks since turning pro, thanks to the new putter he threw into the bag. He was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting, a rarity. On putts inside ten feet, Matsuyama made 90.7% of them (59 of 66), but surprisingly, he made five of 15 putts longer than 25 feet. When you put that well and have a great tee-to-green game, good things happen to you; just ask Scottie Scheffler. I am making a point: don’t disregard Hideki just because he won last week; I can see him winning again this week and next.

On the other hand, many believe Viktor Hovland found his game in Memphis last week when he finished T-2nd. I should remind you that Hovland was 3rd at the PGA Championship and then progressively went downhill from there, T-15th at the Memorial, missing the cut at the U.S. Open and the British Open. I need proof that this trend will carry over, so don’t jump in thinking that Hovland will do well again this week.

Another player to watch is Patrick Cantlay. He has had a sluggish year; I can’t say it has been terrible since he was T-4th at the Genesis, T-3rd at the Heritage and U.S. Open, and T-5th at the Travelers. I thought that Cantlay would play great last week. But he opened with a 72, which took him out of the equation early. But after that, Cantlay was brilliant. In his last 54 holes, he made only one bogey and 11 birdies, and his 67-66-66 got him a share of 12th place. So watch Cantlay, I think he will have a great week.

Scottie Scheffler has been Scottie Scheffler of late. His last three starts have been in the top ten, but other than that, nothing spectacular. That’s because of his putting. After winning the Memorial, Scheffler was 71st in Strokes Gained Putting. After that, he struggled with the putter. At the U.S. Open, he ranked 70th. In his Travelers win, he was 16th in SG Putting. At the FedEx St. Jude, he was 19th. So, since winning the Memorial, Scheffler’s putter could have been more productive, so that worries me. But we know Scheffler will find a way to get a top ten.

Lastly, I don’t know what to say about Rory McIlroy. Since his win at Wells Fargo, I have struggled to predict anything on Rory. When he will do well, the opposite happens. The same is true when I say he will struggle; he plays well. How best to handle the Rory problem other than to say, I leave it up to you how you feel about Rory. He will play well, so that should help you go down and place a bet on Rory not playing well this week.

Tournament information:

The Western Open was initially founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, this will be the 117th edition of the event.

From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at various locations, including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.

In 1974, the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook became the annual venue for the Western Open. The Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities to be members.

This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill hosted the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a name change was in order. The event name was changed to the BMW Championship.  Along with the change, it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008, for the first time since 1962, the event was not played in Chicago as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012, it went to Indianapolis, Indiana, and in 2013, it went for the first time to Conway Farms, the site of last year’s BMW Championship.  In 2014, it was played at Cherry Hills in Denver, returning to Conway Farms in 2015, Crooked Stick in 2016, and Conway Farms for the 2017 BMW Championship.  In 2018, it was played at Aronimink, in 2019 at Medinah, and in 2020 at Olympia Fields.  In 2021, BMW was played at Caves Valley outside of Baltimore.  In 2022, it was played in Wilmington Country Club, while it returned to Olympia Fields last year.  This year, the event will be played at Castle Pines in Colorado, the site of the International between 1986 and 2006.  In 2025, the BMW returns to Caves Valley, and in 2026, it goes to Bellerive, which hosted the BMW Championship in 2008 along with the 1965 U.S. Open, the 1992 and 2018 PGA Championship.

Course information:

• Castle Pines Golf Club
• Castle Rock, Colorado
• 8,130 yards (yes, 8,130 that is not a misprint)    Par 36-36–72

This year, the BMW Championship will go to Castle Pines, one of the hottest golf courses 20 years ago, and it will hold the hottest tournament 20 years ago, the International.  Castle Pines was the dream of Jack Vickers, who brought in Jack Nicklaus to build the course in 1980.  Nicklaus created a jewel among towering pine trees.  The course is set in the foothills, with many elevation changes and narrow fairways.  The greens are large, and water comes into play in eight holes.  When the International was first played at Castle Pines in 1986, it was at 7,559, the longest course on the PGA Tour schedule, but that yardage is very deceptive.  Set in the Rocky Mountains at 6,290 feet, the ball flies about 15 percent farther than at sea level, so in reality, the course played at around 6,900 yards.  Another plus for the players is that since Castle Pines only has 350 members, with most of them not living in the immediate area, the course got very little play, meaning it’s one of the best-condition courses on tour.  Castle Pines, the International, and the Stableford format made it an exhilarating tournament.  Still, despite all of that, the tournament mysteriously went away in 2007.  There are a lot of factors: no title sponsor since 1999 and no corporate sponsorship since 2003.  It was a hard fit having to be played in August, and despite it being loved in February of 2007, the PGA Tour pulled the plug on the tournament.  A lot of players, media, and fans were not happy.

Looking now, one of the most complex parts of not having the International is that a significant marketplace, Denver, does not have a PGA Tour event.  They join a list of many communities that would be perfect for the PGA Tour.  Places like St. Louis, Seattle, Washington, and the Pacific Northwest.  And how about the biggest cities around, Boston, New York, San Francisco and even Chicago, these places would really love a PGA Tour event.  We have seen what the 3M Open has done for Minnesota and the Rocket Mortgage in Detroit.

The course has changed since the International was last played in 2006.  Back then, the course stretched out to 7,619.  Since Castle Pines got serious about holding a PGA Tour event about a decade ago, the course’s original designer, Jack Nicklaus, has been working on it and giving it a significant face-lift.  Nicklaus redesigned ten holes, redid 77 bunkers, and ten water features.  On top of that, the club added 500 pine trees and steadily dried the greens to 12% moisture to make them firmer and faster.  But the topper of all Nicklaus did was add 600 yards to help it deal better with technology off the tee.  At 8,130, it will be the first event on the PGA Tour to break the 8,000-yard mark.  If the PGA Tour wants to, the course has tees, making it play 8,463 yards long.  Right now, the longest course to ever hold a PGA Tour event was the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, which for the 2021 PGA Championship was played at 7,876.  So, we can see that the record will shatter this week.  Still, it won’t play to its yardage.  Since the course is up in the thin Rocky Mountain air, a ball tends to travel between 10% to 15% farther.  So, considering that, the course plays anywhere from 7,200 to 7,400 yards.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at the Castle Pines Golf Club:

This is based on the most important stats for Castle Pines, piecing it together from a course that used to hold a PGA Tour event but has yet to have one in 18 years. We will try to figure all of this out and use data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024

As I say, each year on the eve of the BMW Championship, the PGA Tour and BMW have gotten it right in moving this event to some of the great courses we have yet to hear much of and showcase the course. For example, last year, they went to Olympia Fields Country Club and had a great tournament in which Viktor Hovland won. Still, on Sunday, a long list of the greatest players, Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, and Brian Harman, could have won the tournament. The same year before, held at Wilmington Country Club, Patrick Cantlay won again; he had won the year before at Caves Valley, and Patrick Cantlay won on both courses. In 2020, Olympia Fields held the BMW, and Jon Rahm beat Dustin Johnson in a playoff. The great thing about BMW is that they find a great course each year to play. In 2019, they went to Medinah, the site of the U.S. Opens, the PGA Championships, and the Ryder Cup. In 2018, they went to Aronimink, a course outside of Philadelphia, where they saw a PGA Championship play. The event has also been to Crooked Stick and Cherry Hills, which held a major championship. The point is that there have been a lot of great courses that have hosted the BMW Championship.
This week, the PGA Tour returns to Castle Pines Golf Club, one of those incredible gems. The course is about 45 minutes south of Denver. As many remember, it was the home of The International, a Stableford event between 1986 and 2006. Of those who were champions, eleven of them won a major championship. The cream of the time, players like Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, Vijay Singh, Jose Maria Olazabal, Lee Janzen, Retief Goosen, and Ernie Els all won at Castle Pines.
The course is considered the modern-day Augusta National. It has an elite membership that does everything right, no matter how much it costs. The course has the Rocky Mountains as its backdrop, which meanders through tall pine trees, making it look like you’re driving down Park Avenue in New York through its majestic skyscrapers. Players will have to drive it long and straight and be able to hit crisp iron shots to very undulating greens. Putting is always a key; you can only make a lot of birdies with some decent putting. Patience is a virtue; Colorado’s weather in August is volatile, especially in the afternoon. Thunder is to be expected and comes more time than the club would like. In the 21 years that the International was played, the lighting record for this tournament was perfect, with at least one delay during the week of every International.
Judging yardage is critical; hitting the right club is always a challenge. A 230-yard shot to the ninth green at Castle Pines is a bit of an adventure compared to a 230-yard shot at, say, the ninth hole at TPC Southwind. With the high altitude, a 230-yard shot could be an 8-iron at Castle Pines, while the same shot at TPC Southwind could be a six or five-iron.
Even though Castle Pines held 21 PGA Tour events on it, we need more data since the tournament used the Stableford system. The format made it play differently than it will play this week. So, with very little data to base our conclusions, it’s a guessing contest to match a player’s game with the course. The things to watch for are accuracy, Which will be the key to winning at Castle Pines, not only in driving accuracy but also in precious iron play into the greens. This course demands a great shotmaker, and when you miss a green, you will have to show the skill of handling both sand play and pitch shots from harsh conditions around the green. A poor putter won’t cut it on this course if that isn’t enough. The greens have a lot of undulations and mounds; the greens aren’t big, averaging 5,600 square feet, so good lag putting is required along with the nerves to make most of those nasty five and six-footers. Now, weather will play an important role; rain will soften it up and make the course play much more manageable.

So this is based on the most important stats for Castle Pines, based on what I feel is essential based on what happened during the 21 years the course held the International and all the changes made since. Weather plays a factor in scoring, and the prediction is for afternoon thunderstorms between Wednesday and Friday.
The scoring could be low because the course is wet, the temperature is high, and the conditions are soft. But I see very little rain in the forecast, more thunder than heavy patches of rain so that the course will dry out each day. It could be substantial by the weekend, and the greens very quickly. But there has been some rain leading up to this week, so expect the rough to be even harder to manage.
It’s crucial to keep it in the fairway and drive it far. I use a stat that is a bit old and not used much, but I feel it is essential to Total Driving, which adds up the ranks of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to create a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week.
Our second category is Greens in Regulation, the number of greens hit from the fairway. To score well in this course, hitting greens is critical.
Our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. This category combines all skills in getting up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens, which have close to 50 of them.
Our last category is Strokes Gained Putting. This is a great way to determine a player’s performance on the greens since putting is vital to winning this week at Castle Pines.
So, as we can see, the player who plays well at Castle Pines drives it far and straight, hits many greens, and makes his share of putts.

*Total Driving: The total rank is calculated by adding up the Driving Distance and Accuracy scores. This rank will determine which players hit it long and straight, two very important items for the week.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This combines all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way to determine a player’s overall performance on the greens by determining the length of the putt, calculating the percentage the player should make the putt, and coming up with a stroke figure.

The 50 players from this year’s field with stats from 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,300
• Xander Schauffele – $11,100
• Rory McIlroy – $10,800
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,500
• Viktor Hovland – $10,400
• Collin Morikawa – $10,100
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
• Tony Finau – $9,700
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,600
• Sam Burns – $9,400
• Billy Horschel – $9,300
• Wyndham Clark – $9,200
• Russell Henley – $9,100
• Sungjae Im – $9,000

The good news for this week is that there will be no cut. The bad news is that, as we wrote last week, the cost of the best players is way too high, making taking them risky. So yes, it’s buyer beware. Of the 50 players in the field, only two have played competitively at Castle Rock, and that is Adam Scott and Jason Day. Scott played just once in 2000 and missed the cut while Day finished T-63rd in 2006, so I don’t think the memories are great. So, nobody has a big advantage this week.

So, who do I recommend?  I know that Scottie Scheffler at $12,300 is high, but he shows week in and week out that he is worth the money and produces a lot of points.  He also should be good at this course.  The same with Xander Schauffele at $11,100, Castle Pines is right up his alley and Xander seems to find his game last week in Memphis.  Rory McIlroy at $10,800 is hard to predict, and with that said, you can base an opinion.  But since I have no opinion, that should sway you not to pick Rory.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,500 is a big yes for me, his game is in great shape and now that he can putt makes him even more dangerous.  Look for him to play well this week and possibly next week.  Viktor Hovland at $10,400 is a big no for me.  I realize how well he played in Memphis, but he played well at the PGA Championship and struggled after that.  Collin Morikawa at $10,100, has been a big disappointment to me since he almost won the Memorial.  His game has been ok; it’s the putter that makes it a struggle for him, and I don’t see that turning around this week.  Ludvig Aberg at $10,000, has struggled a bit since finishing 2nd at the Masters.  I think it’s all a learning process, which means he isn’t a good choice this week. Patrick Cantlay, at $9,800, is a good pick. I think his game has come around, and he should find Castle Pines to his liking.  Tony Finau, at $9,700, has not played badly since the Masters, but he is just a shot a round away from being really good.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,600 was a disappointment last week, still think he will do well this week, the course is good for him.  Sam Burns at $9,400, is a player who has quietly made noise each week and is ready to put together that one awesome week.  Billy Horschel at $9,300 is another player to watch, he has been playing well the last month since his runner-up finish at the British Open.  Wyndham Clark at $9,200 is one that many think has a big advantage growing up in the area but never really played at Castle Rock, so there is no advantage.  As for his game, it has been good since the Travelers. I think he will have a good week, but I just don’t think he is a solid DraftKings pick. Russell Henley at $9,100 is a no for me. I don’t think the course suits his game, and since he isn’t a bomber, I don’t see him contending.  The same can be said of Sungjae Im at $9,000.  He doesn’t have the length to keep up with others who will do well on this course, so he is not worth the pick.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I feel that Sahith Theegala at $8,700, could be a good choice.  He is good on long courses and could surprise us this week.  Aaron Rai at $8,600 is still a solid pick, he can play well on any course and I think he will be good this week.  Akshay Bhatia at $8,400, has the game to do well at Castle Rock and is a great pick.  Davis Thompson at $7,900, has been inconsistent since winning the John Deere, but this course is right up his alley, and I see good things out of him this week. Alex Noren at $7,500, will not win this week but will give you many points and make you happy.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the BMW Championship

We are in the price range, and a good finish could help at a low price.  Taylor Pendrith at $7,300 is a good pick since he is consistent and will bring in many points cheaply.  Nick Dunlap at $6,900 is a great pick, considering he won last month in Reno at 6,200 feet high.  Played well last week in Memphis to get him to Castle Rock.  Eric Cole at $6,500 is a perfect pick, he is solid and has played well for much of the summer.  Max Greyserman at $6,300 is cheap and has been on a great run of late; don’t miss out on him.

Here are some of the secrets that it will take to play well this week at the BMW Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Remember that very few have seen the course, which tends to help those long-shot players. The need for patience in the course will also take a lot of patience, and birdies will be the norm this week.  It’s a delightful course, and the players will fall in love with it
• Emphasis must be made on making many birdies because those whose games are good will be able to score low.
• Length and the lack of accuracy will give bombers a significant advantage.  Still, we can’t say the course is a layup; it’s not.  For those that are too greedy and get in trouble, they can make bogeys and higher.
• Sharp iron play will also help with imagination when you get in trouble. The key is to peak on Wednesday, right before the start of the championship.
• Look for good lag putters to have a significant advantage because Castle Rock greens are small and fast, giving good putters a field day.