Tour Championship Key Fantasy Stats

Tour Championship

August 29th – September 1st, 2024

East Lake G.C.

Atlanta, GA

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,490

Purse: $100 million for the top-125 players

with $25 million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Viktor Hovland

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from East Lake G.C., data from last year’s Tour Championship, and data from all the players with stats from 2024.

This is a classic Tom Bendelow design that Donald Ross completely reworked, a course that favors the shot maker and one that hits lots of greens. The course was considered one of the best in America in the 20s and 30s, but things turned around with changes in the community in the 50s and 60s. The course held the 1963 Ryder Cup, and George Cobb made some changes. The club fell into some tough times in the 60s and 70s, with members deciding to move to a new site. With the move, the course became a public course and was in serious shape. It took Tom Cousin, an important real estate developer in Atlanta, to return the course from its low point. Ross Jones did the restoration in 1994, but the goal was to get it back to Donald Ross’s changes, which he did correctly.
The course is a gem because each hole is tree-lined, so you must drive it reasonably straight. The most crucial aspect is hitting greens; in the 23 times the course has held the Tour Championship, only two champions have been out of the top ten in greens hit (Bill Haas in 2011 and Tiger Woods in 2018), and nine of the winners including last year’s champion Viktor Hovland led that stat. The greens are also hard to putt, and since most of the greens are built up, you miss a green, so scrambling becomes key. The bottom line is this isn’t a course for the power hitter; short hitters have as much chance of doing well as long hitters.
Before continuing, we should mention that after the last putt dropped at last year’s Tour Championship, bulldozers started digging up the course the day after the tournament’s completion with a significant renovation to East Lake. The routing of East Lake is the same, but everything else, from tee to green, will be completely different.
East Lake hired architect Andrew Green to deliver the magic he has done on other classic layouts like Oak Hill, Inverness, and Congressional. Green’s agenda was to reprise the course the way it was after Donald Ross reworked the original Tom Bendelow course in 1913. Green went through hundreds of photos showing how the course was in the 20s, 30s, and 40s before George Cobb renovated it for the 1963 Ryder Cup.
So, in the year since dirt was first cut into, all 18 greens have been completely rebuilt and bear no resemblance to how they were. In some cases, like the 4th, 6th, 8th. 16th and 17th have been moved to 50 yards from their original place. In some cases, like the 8th and 17th, the greens have been moved to make them drivable when the tees are moved up. All the fairways have been recontour with bunkers being placed in the driving areas for the pros today. Instead of being pushed to the edges of the fairways, ready to catch wayward shots, the traps are cut into the landing areas, forcing players to decide if they’ll play over, around, or short of the sand. There is more movement in the fairways, as well, and added humps and hollows. All 18 tees have been redone and placed, making it harder to hit the fairway.
Green completely redone all 18 greens, making them more in the style of Donald Ross. Another element that Green eliminated was the rough around the greens, which meant players would have to gauge the ball out. Green has shaved the areas around the Greens so that the balls that miss the greens will run off like they were at Pinehurst, making a tough shot back to the pin.
With all the changes, green added 144 yards to the course. The holes with the biggest additions are the 1st (41 yards) and the 3rd (24 yards). The most yardage added is to the 14th hole, with 60 yards added as the hole went from a 520 par 4 to a 580 par 5, so par will be 71. Now, some of the holes saw a significant subtraction of yards. The par 4, 8th has gone from 455 yards to 390 yards as the green was brought up, and the Tour will move the tees up, making the hole drivable.
The one player who will hate the changes is Xander Schauffele, who has never shot over par in seven starts and 28 rounds. He has three rounds of 70 and 25 under-par rounds. He shot 65 or lower seven times. In his seven starts, his highest position was T-7th in 2018.

So, in looking at this year’s Tour Championship, we have to talk about the format that went into effect in 2019. In previous years, there seemed to be two events in one, creating confusion. In the 12 years of the FedExCup between 2007 and 2018, 8 times, the FedExCup winner and the Tour Championship winner were the same. It became a noticeable thing when Xander Schauffele in 2017 and Tiger Woods in 2018 won the Tour Championship but didn’t win the FedEx Cup. The excitement of Tiger winning the Tour Championship drowned out any excitement about Justin Rose winning the FedExCup playoffs. So, the PGA Tour decided to try a new format for the 2019 Tour Championship. The Tour Championship winner is also the FedExCup playoffs winner with the new format. They did that by taking the points after the BMW Championship and giving the players a point advantage based on their finish to start the Tour Championship. The winner would start the Tour Championship at 10 under, the person 2nd in the FedExCup standings would begin at 8 under, and the player in 3rd start the Tour Championship at 7 under par. They staggered the start in a way that if you are 6th in the FedExCup list, you started the Tour Championship at 4 under and worked down the list that those players between 26th and 30th on the points list started at even par, ten shots back of the leader of the FedExCup points race. So, statically speaking, the person 30th in the FedExCup race could still win but has to cover ten shots and slip past 29 players, which is a tall order. On the surface, that seems like a lot, but in 2022, Rory McIlroy started six shots back and made up those strokes off of Scottie Scheffler; as McIlroy beat Scheffler by seven shots, anything is possible. Last year, Scottie Schaeffler was in the pole position, but he stumbled in the final round to shoot 73 and finish T-6th, with Viktor Hovland winning by five shots. In the five-year history of this format, only two who had the “pole” position won (Patrik Cantlay in 2021 and Dustin Johnson in 2020).
So for this year, Scottie Scheffler will again begin the week at 10 under, with Xander Schauffele at 8 under, Hideki Matsuyama at 7 under, Keegan Bradley at 6 under, and Ludvig Aberg at 5 under par.
The next five (Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, and Patrick Catlay) will begin at 4-under.
The next five (Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, and Tony Finau) will begin at 3-under.
From there, they regressed by one stroke per five players until those ranked Nos. 26-30 start at even par (Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Justin Thomas). Now, for those players who are 20 and below in the FedExCup and will find themselves 9 or 10 shots back of Scheffler, it will be like entering the Indy 500 in a hybrid car. It’s hard enough to cover ten shots over any player, but to do it simultaneously, having to jump over 20 of the best players in the world is an impossible task – sure, mathematically feasible, but not realistic.

In 2019, the first year the format was used, Justin Thomas started at 10 under but was caught and passed by three other players. The winner was Rory McIlroy, who shot 267, ten shots better than Thomas. So despite having a 5-shot lead over McIlroy, he only was 3 under par, so he finished 13 under par. McIlroy, who shot 13 under, started the week at 5 under, so he was 18 under. Xander Schauffele began the week at 4 under par; his 270 score was 14 under, and he took 2nd. Brooks Koepka started the week at 7 under and, with his 274 total, ended at 13 under to T-3rd with Thomas.
2020 was different. Dustin Johnson was the leader of the FedExCup and thus started out at 10 under. He shot 11 under 269 and won by three shots over Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. Schauffele was remarkable. He started at 3 under but, with his 265 total, was able to take 2nd place, but he wasn’t good enough to catch Johnson.
In 2021, Patrick Cantlay led the FedExCup point list and started the week at 10 under. He shot 269 (-11), and the score was T-4th for the week. He started the week at 10 under, with his 10 under reward finished at 21 under, a shot better than Jon Rahm, who started the week at 6 under, and his 14 under par performance for the week finished at 20 under and 2nd place. Kevin Na also shot 14 under par but started the week at 2 under, so his 16 under total got him 3rd place. Xander Schauffele was 12 under for the week, but since he started at 2 under, he finished at 14 under and was T-5th. Cantlay was a bit lucky because Tony Finau started at 8 under par, so his 8 under total finished T-11th. The same is true with Bryson DeChambeau, who started the week at 7 under but shot a 6 under 274 to finish the week 13 under and 7th. So Cantlay wasn’t the best for the week but did good enough and, with some luck of those close to him at the start, could win.
When the new format came about, many people weren’t happy. Some said it was taking away from the Tour Championship, and no money was won. It was okay in the first year when Rory McIlroy won the tournament after making up the five shots over Justin Thomas and had a low score of 267. In 2020, Xander Schauffele was the low scorer at 265, but Dustin Johnson shot 269 to hold onto the tournament and become the first leader on Thursday morning to lead after 72 holes. In 2021, Jon Rahm and Kevin Na shot 266 but started too far behind Patrick Cantlay, who won by a shot.
In 2022, McIlroy was the best player for the week, shooting 17 under. Sungjae Im shot 16 under, and like McIlroy, he was six back at the start. Scheffler was 10 under, but he was a shot back of McIlroy, as Scottie finished T-2nd.
Last year, Viktor Hovland, who started in the second position and was two shots back, shot 19 under to win by five shots over Xander Schauffele, who also shot 19 under. Scheffler, who started with the lead, shot 71 in the first round to drop out of the lead. With his one-under-par total for the week, only one player was worse, as Scheffler finished T-6th, 16 shots worse than Hovland.
After five years, everyone agrees that the new format is good and does bring out both the Tour Championship and the FedExCup race. Even playing on DraftKings, it’s weird that some players have an advantage, but that is reflected in their price. One hint for those in Draftkings: look at the birdie average and par breakers list to help make picks.

So, in our four categories for this week, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. We pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because putting the ball in play off the tee at East Lake is very important, probably one of the essential items on this Donald Ross course. Last year, East Lake was 21st in Driving Accuracy. In looking at Viktor Hovland, who won, was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was 1st (Out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. In 2022, East Lake was 19th in Driving Accuracy. In looking at Rory McIlroy, who won, he was 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-10th (Out of 29 players) in Driving Accuracy. Patrick Cantlay, who won in 2021, was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-10th (out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. The year before, the winner, Dustin Johnson, was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green while he was 28th (out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. Rory McIlroy, who won in 2019, was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-3rd in Driving Accuracy. The year before, Tiger Woods won, and he was T-3rd in Driving Accuracy and 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
For our second category, getting the ball on the greens is essential, and we all know how hard it is to hit Donald Ross’s greens.
Last year, East Lake ranked 32nd in Greens in Regulation, and Viktor Hovland was T-1st in Greens in Regulation. In 2022, East Lake ranked 33rd in Greens in Regulation, and Rory McIlroy was T-4th in Greens in Regulation. The previous year 2021, Patrick Cantlay was T-1st in hitting greens. In 2020, Dustin Johnson was T-5th. The year before, in 2019, McIlroy was T-5th in Greens in Regulation. In 2018, Tiger Woods won and was T-14th in Greens in Regulation, which was the worst finish for any East Lake Champion in Greens in Regulation. Still, it shows that anything can happen.
That is why next up is scrambling: the greens are hard to hit, and when you miss the green, you have to get it up and down to win. On top of that, with the new renovation, the collars have now been shaved so that the ball will roll off the green, making it hard to get it up and down. Last year, East Lake was ranked 31st in scrambling, and in winning, Hovland was T-1st, getting it up and down 85.71%, with 12 of the 14 greens missing. In 2022, East Lake was ranked 40th in scrambling, and in winning, McIlroy was 23rd, getting it up and down 55.56%, 10 of the 18 greens missed. The previous year, 2021, Patrick Cantlay was 16th, getting it up and down 58.82%, 10 of 17 greens missed. In 2020, the winner, Dustin Johnson, was T-13th, getting it up and down 14 of 22 times. In 2019, McIlroy was 5th, as he got it up and down 68.18% of the time. The previous year, Tiger was 1st in scrambling, getting it up and down 70.83% of the time.
The last and vital stat for those playing the Donald Ross golf course is putting; last year, the course ranked T-51st on the PGA Tour. In Strokes Gained Putting, last year Viktor Hovland was 4th, in 2022 Rory McIlroy was 2nd, in 2021 Patrick Cantlay was 14th, in 2020 Johnson was 12th while in 2019 McIlroy was 11th, and in 2018 Tiger Woods was 2nd

This week’s format will make it hard to judge who could win, as half the field has been eliminated. But if Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, and Ludvig Aberg falter early, it will open up many more players chances and make the event very interesting. The one thing about this format is that on paper, it looks great, and many think that we can put either Scottie Scheffler’s or Xander Schauffele’s name on the trophy. However, after seeing what happened to Justin Thomas in 2019, having the lead for 72 holes is challenging. Weather is also going to play a part as it will be very hot, each day will be around 94 each day.  So, the big question with this forecast is whether it will change the characteristics of East Lake. With the course firm and hard, more players will have trouble hitting fairways and greens, which opens up the possibilities for those who could be better shotmakers to win.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then gets the ball on the green to determine who is best at all of these items.

*Greens in Regulation: Players that hit the most greens in regulation

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

Of the 30 players in the field, 30 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.