BlogTour Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So, we have gotten to the last FedEx Cup event of the 2024 season. It’s hard to believe the year has gone by so fast, and it’s been challenging for the players. LIV golf became even more prominent in 2024, creating an enormous rift between players. In June of 2023, PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan announced a merger with the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia; the money behind LIV golf created an even bigger problem. Many players felt Monahan gave up the fight that the players had supported. Many didn’t take multi-million dollar payouts to stay loyal to the Tour. So this didn’t go over very well, but 15 months later, nothing has happened, and we all wonder if LIV Golf will get another billion-dollar grant to continue in 2025.

As for the season, things went well, as 29 players won the 38 events. At the top, we saw little change as Scottie Scheffler won six times, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Nick Dunlap won twice, and Scheffler dominated most of the season. We saw 11 first-time winners on Tour (The American Express – Nick Dunlap, Farmers Insurance – Matthieu Pavon, Mexico Open – Jake Knapp, Cognizant Classic – Austin Eckroat, Houston Open – Stephan Jaeger, CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Taylor Pendrith, Myrtle Beach Classic – Chris Gotterup, RBC Canadian Open – Robert MacIntyre, John Deere – Davis Thompson, ISCO Championship – Harry Hall, and Wyndham – Aaron Rai).

As for the majors, Scottie Scheffler won his second major at the Masters, Xander Schauffele won his first major at the PGA Championship, and then his second title at the British Open. Bryson DeChambeau won the U.S. Open for the second time. For the first time since 1982, Americans swept the majors.

The winners’ ages ranged from 20 to 40. Twelve players won 19 titles in their 20s, 16 won 17 titles in their 30s, and Brice Garnett was the only player in his 40s to win on the PGA Tour.

Some of the year’s big surprises were the return of Billy Horschel, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jhonattan Vegas to the winning circle.

On the other end of the spectrum, after winning an event for two straight years on the PGA Tour, Jordan Spieth was winless in a season where his best finish was 3rd at the Sentry Open.   Many have looked to see what is wrong with Spieth, and the answer is his wrist, which he will have to fix surgically in the coming weeks. Of the four major winners last year, Wyndham Clark was the only winner on the PGA Tour in 2024. Some other disappointments in 2024 were Brian Harman, Patrick Cantlay, and Jason Day, who just never got it going.

For the second time since 2013, the Tour Championship won’t be the year’s last event. With the PGA Tour going back to a calendar year, for the first time since 2013, eight events will be played in the next two months, and 55 players will have to be careful not to lose their PGA Tour card if they drop outside of the top-125 after the RSM Classic just before Thanksgiving. The jury is out on how this will play. After nine seasons of the Tour starting in September, seeing what people think of these eight upcoming events, with the season beginning in January, will be interesting. Last year, many people found it confusing how people won enough to get eligible for the first two signature events of the year, and frankly, the fact that players were playing for their Tour cards was not worth watching, unlike football. Still, golf is golf, and people will still have a reason to gamble in golf during the fall, but the main goal of the fall events will be to make sure to retain a player’s PGA Tour card for 2025.

So, for many of us, the Tour year will end this week, but we will officially have eight events left. Considering that only 70 players participated in the playoffs instead of 125, it was a big success. It was much cleaner and easier to handicap, and I don’t believe anyone missed out that 55 players weren’t in Memphis. Still, many, like myself, felt we had to watch golf in the fall instead of football, which never happened. We must realize that golf will be from January to the end of August, with those months having the most significant events on the calendar.

The importance of making it into the Tour Championship

The PGA Tour has made getting into the top 30 a critical feat in the last couple of years.

Money isn’t the only prize for playing at the Tour Championship. Being in the top 30 brings on a lot of other great things. You get to play in any tournament you want to play in 2025, including getting into all four majors. They also get to play into all eight $20 million Signature events next year: The Sentry, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, The Genesis Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, RBC Heritage, Truist Championship, the Memorial Tournament, and the Travelers Championship.

So you can see the minimum importance of making it to East Lake. But for every winner, we can find others who came close but won’t get in.

Course information:

• East Lake Golf Club
• Atlanta, Ga.
• 7,490 yards     Par 35-36–71

Tom Bendelow designed East Lake around 1905. In 1913, Donald Ross completely reworked the course. Even though the layout is the same today, George Cobb altered it before the 1963 Ryder Cup matches.

East Lake has had a somewhat tumultuous existence. From its inception until the early 1960s, East Lake was one of the top courses in the entire country. It was Bobby Jones’s home golf course; he learned to play the game on this course. The Ryder Cup was held at East Lake in 1963. However, problems began at the Atlanta Country Club as the area got seedy. Higher-income people started emigrating to the suburbs, leaving only lower-income households to inhabit the once-storied Country Club area. In the ’60s, the membership abandoned the site and moved across town to Atlanta Athletic Club, with East Lake becoming a public course.

For the next 30 years, the golf course and the community floundered as the area became the most dangerous part of Atlanta. In the 1970s and 1980s, police often referred to the site surrounding East Lake as “Little Vietnam.”

In 1993, Tom Cousins, an esteemed real estate developer, and East Lake resident joined a charitable foundation to restore the East Lake Golf Club and the surrounding community to their previous leviathan stature. The two-phase plan included restoring all housing and overhauling the old golf course. Rees Jones was hired to do the restoration in 1994. He made many changes, but the course will differ from past years with the new Andrew Green renovation.

Today, the course plays as a 7,460-yard, par 71. It features Zorro Zoysia grass on the tees and fairways, while the rough is Tifway 419 Bermudagrass. The greens are also Bermudagrass. Thus, it can tolerate the hot days of August/September and will be in great shape for this week.

The signature hole at East Lake is the Par 3, 15th. The hole plays at around 215 yards, but the downhill shot eliminates some distance. The tee was expanded, and if officials wanted, they could stretch the hole to 225 yards. The green itself provides the challenge of the hole. Golfers must attack a peninsula green with water left, correct, and in front of the green and part of the backside. Adding to the difficulty is a small bunker on the front left and the green, making this an island green. Another change: with the renovation, hundreds of trees have been removed.

In 2015, the course played to a 70.38 average and was the 17th hardest course on Tour. For years, the course played with a par 3 finish. The hole was challenging, and this created terrible finishes. So for 2016, the nines at East Lake were reversed as the PGA Tour was hoping to create a more exciting finish. They got that as the new par 5 18th hole began, there was a lot more drama than the par 3, the ninth hole, which was the final hole in the previous 15 years. In 2016, Rory McIlroy birdied the 72nd hole to get into a playoff. It was the first time in the history of East Lake at the Tour Championship that the winner birdied the 72nd hole. That year, the course played much easier, with a 69.61 average, and was the 27th hardest course on Tour. In 2017, the course played to a 69.38 average and was the 31st hardest course on Tour. In 2018, it played to a 69.62 average and was the 24th hardest course on Tour that year. In 2019, East Lake played to a 70.03 average and was ranked the 14th hardest course on Tour. In 2020, East Lake played to a 68.92 average and was ranked the 24th hardest course on Tour. In 2021, the scoring average was 68.81, which was T-36th hardest course on Tour. In 2022, the course played to a scoring average of 67.91, making it the 44th easiest course on Tour. Last year, the course played to a scoring average of 68.76, which was the 37th hardest course. Look for the course to play much tougher this year, with par being 71 instead of 70

Let’s look at essential stats for East Lake players this week.

This is based on the most vital stats from East Lake G.C., data from last year’s Tour Championship, and data from all the players with stats from 2024.

This is a classic Tom Bendelow design that Donald Ross completely reworked, a course that favors the shot maker and one that hits lots of greens. The course was considered one of the best in America in the 20s and 30s, but things turned around with changes in the community in the 50s and 60s. The course held the 1963 Ryder Cup, and George Cobb made some changes. The club fell into some tough times in the 60s and 70s, with members deciding to move to a new site. With the move, the course became a public course and was in serious shape. It took Tom Cousin, an important real estate developer in Atlanta, to return the course from its low point. Ross Jones did the restoration in 1994, but the goal was to get it back to Donald Ross’s changes, which he did correctly.
The course is a gem because each hole is tree-lined, so you must drive it reasonably straight. The most crucial aspect is hitting greens; in the 23 times the course has held the Tour Championship, only two champions have been out of the top ten in greens hit (Bill Haas in 2011 and Tiger Woods in 2018), and nine of the winners including last year’s champion Viktor Hovland led that stat. The greens are also hard to putt, and since most of the greens are built up, you miss a green, so scrambling becomes key. The bottom line is this isn’t a course for the power hitter; short hitters have as much chance of doing well as long hitters.
Before continuing, we should mention that after the last putt dropped at last year’s Tour Championship, bulldozers started digging up the course the day after the tournament’s completion with a significant renovation to East Lake. The routing of East Lake is the same, but everything else, from tee to green, will be completely different.
East Lake hired architect Andrew Green to deliver the magic he has done on other classic layouts like Oak Hill, Inverness, and Congressional. Green’s agenda was to reprise the course the way it was after Donald Ross reworked the original Tom Bendelow course in 1913. Green went through hundreds of photos showing how the course was in the 20s, 30s, and 40s before George Cobb renovated it for the 1963 Ryder Cup.
So, in the year since dirt was first cut into, all 18 greens have been completely rebuilt and bear no resemblance to how they were. In some cases, like the 4th, 6th, 8th. 16th and 17th have been moved to 50 yards from their original place. In some cases, like the 8th and 17th, the greens have been moved to make them drivable when the tees are moved up. All the fairways have been recontour with bunkers being placed in the driving areas for the pros today. Instead of being pushed to the edges of the fairways, ready to catch wayward shots, the traps are cut into the landing areas, forcing players to decide if they’ll play over, around, or short of the sand. There is more movement in the fairways, as well, and added humps and hollows. All 18 tees have been redone and placed, making it harder to hit the fairway.
Green completely redone all 18 greens, making them more in the style of Donald Ross. Another element that Green eliminated was the rough around the greens, which meant players would have to gauge the ball out. Green has shaved the areas around the Greens so that the balls that miss the greens will run off like they were at Pinehurst, making a tough shot back to the pin.
With all the changes, green added 144 yards to the course. The holes with the biggest additions are the 1st (41 yards) and the 3rd (24 yards). The most yardage added is to the 14th hole, with 60 yards added as the hole went from a 520 par 4 to a 580 par 5, so par will be 71. Now, some of the holes saw a significant subtraction of yards. The par 4, 8th has gone from 455 yards to 390 yards as the green was brought up, and the Tour will move the tees up, making the hole drivable.
The one player who will hate the changes is Xander Schauffele, who has never shot over par in seven starts and 28 rounds. He has three rounds of 70 and 25 under-par rounds. He shot 65 or lower seven times. In his seven starts, his highest position was T-7th in 2018.

So, in looking at this year’s Tour Championship, we have to talk about the format that went into effect in 2019. In previous years, there seemed to be two events in one, creating confusion. In the 12 years of the FedExCup between 2007 and 2018, 8 times, the FedExCup winner and the Tour Championship winner were the same. It became a noticeable thing when Xander Schauffele in 2017 and Tiger Woods in 2018 won the Tour Championship but didn’t win the FedEx Cup. The excitement of Tiger winning the Tour Championship drowned out any excitement about Justin Rose winning the FedExCup playoffs. So, the PGA Tour decided to try a new format for the 2019 Tour Championship. The Tour Championship winner is also the FedExCup playoffs winner with the new format. They did that by taking the points after the BMW Championship and giving the players a point advantage based on their finish to start the Tour Championship. The winner would start the Tour Championship at 10 under, the person 2nd in the FedExCup standings would begin at 8 under, and the player in 3rd start the Tour Championship at 7 under par. They staggered the start in a way that if you are 6th in the FedExCup list, you started the Tour Championship at 4 under and worked down the list that those players between 26th and 30th on the points list started at even par, ten shots back of the leader of the FedExCup points race. So, statically speaking, the person 30th in the FedExCup race could still win but has to cover ten shots and slip past 29 players, which is a tall order. On the surface, that seems like a lot, but in 2022, Rory McIlroy started six shots back and made up those strokes off of Scottie Scheffler; as McIlroy beat Scheffler by seven shots, anything is possible. Last year, Scottie Schaeffler was in the pole position, but he stumbled in the final round to shoot 73 and finish T-6th, with Viktor Hovland winning by five shots. In the five-year history of this format, only two who had the “pole” position won (Patrik Cantlay in 2021 and Dustin Johnson in 2020).
So for this year, Scottie Scheffler will again begin the week at 10 under, with Xander Schauffele at 8 under, Hideki Matsuyama at 7 under, Keegan Bradley at 6 under, and Ludvig Aberg at 5 under par.
The next five (Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, and Patrick Catlay) will begin at 4-under.
The next five (Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, and Tony Finau) will begin at 3-under.
From there, they regressed by one stroke per five players until those ranked Nos. 26-30 start at even par (Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Justin Thomas). Now, for those players who are 20 and below in the FedExCup and will find themselves 9 or 10 shots back of Scheffler, it will be like entering the Indy 500 in a hybrid car. It’s hard enough to cover ten shots over any player, but to do it simultaneously, having to jump over 20 of the best players in the world is an impossible task – sure, mathematically feasible, but not realistic.

In 2019, the first year the format was used, Justin Thomas started at 10 under but was caught and passed by three other players. The winner was Rory McIlroy, who shot 267, ten shots better than Thomas. So despite having a 5-shot lead over McIlroy, he only was 3 under par, so he finished 13 under par. McIlroy, who shot 13 under, started the week at 5 under, so he was 18 under. Xander Schauffele began the week at 4 under par; his 270 score was 14 under, and he took 2nd. Brooks Koepka started the week at 7 under and, with his 274 total, ended at 13 under to T-3rd with Thomas.
2020 was different. Dustin Johnson was the leader of the FedExCup and thus started out at 10 under. He shot 11 under 269 and won by three shots over Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. Schauffele was remarkable. He started at 3 under but, with his 265 total, was able to take 2nd place, but he wasn’t good enough to catch Johnson.
In 2021, Patrick Cantlay led the FedExCup point list and started the week at 10 under. He shot 269 (-11), and the score was T-4th for the week. He started the week at 10 under, with his 10 under reward finished at 21 under, a shot better than Jon Rahm, who started the week at 6 under, and his 14 under par performance for the week finished at 20 under and 2nd place. Kevin Na also shot 14 under par but started the week at 2 under, so his 16 under total got him 3rd place. Xander Schauffele was 12 under for the week, but since he started at 2 under, he finished at 14 under and was T-5th. Cantlay was a bit lucky because Tony Finau started at 8 under par, so his 8 under total finished T-11th. The same is true with Bryson DeChambeau, who started the week at 7 under but shot a 6 under 274 to finish the week 13 under and 7th. So Cantlay wasn’t the best for the week but did good enough and, with some luck of those close to him at the start, could win.
When the new format came about, many people weren’t happy. Some said it was taking away from the Tour Championship, and no money was won. It was okay in the first year when Rory McIlroy won the tournament after making up the five shots over Justin Thomas and had a low score of 267. In 2020, Xander Schauffele was the low scorer at 265, but Dustin Johnson shot 269 to hold onto the tournament and become the first leader on Thursday morning to lead after 72 holes. In 2021, Jon Rahm and Kevin Na shot 266 but started too far behind Patrick Cantlay, who won by a shot.
In 2022, McIlroy was the best player for the week, shooting 17 under. Sungjae Im shot 16 under, and like McIlroy, he was six back at the start. Scheffler was 10 under, but he was a shot back of McIlroy, as Scottie finished T-2nd.
Last year, Viktor Hovland, who started in the second position and was two shots back, shot 19 under to win by five shots over Xander Schauffele, who also shot 19 under. Scheffler, who started with the lead, shot 71 in the first round to drop out of the lead. With his one-under-par total for the week, only one player was worse, as Scheffler finished T-6th, 16 shots worse than Hovland.
After five years, everyone agrees that the new format is good and does bring out both the Tour Championship and the FedExCup race. Even playing on DraftKings, it’s weird that some players have an advantage, but that is reflected in their price. One hint for those in Draftkings: look at the birdie average and par breakers list to help make picks.

So, in our four categories for this week, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. We pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because putting the ball in play off the tee at East Lake is very important, probably one of the essential items on this Donald Ross course. Last year, East Lake was 21st in Driving Accuracy. In looking at Viktor Hovland, who won, was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was 1st (Out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. In 2022, East Lake was 19th in Driving Accuracy. In looking at Rory McIlroy, who won, he was 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-10th (Out of 29 players) in Driving Accuracy. Patrick Cantlay, who won in 2021, was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-10th (out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. The year before, the winner, Dustin Johnson, was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green while he was 28th (out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. Rory McIlroy, who won in 2019, was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-3rd in Driving Accuracy. The year before, Tiger Woods won, and he was T-3rd in Driving Accuracy and 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
For our second category, getting the ball on the greens is essential, and we all know how hard it is to hit Donald Ross’s greens.
Last year, East Lake ranked 32nd in Greens in Regulation, and Viktor Hovland was T-1st in Greens in Regulation. In 2022, East Lake ranked 33rd in Greens in Regulation, and Rory McIlroy was T-4th in Greens in Regulation. The previous year 2021, Patrick Cantlay was T-1st in hitting greens. In 2020, Dustin Johnson was T-5th. The year before, in 2019, McIlroy was T-5th in Greens in Regulation. In 2018, Tiger Woods won and was T-14th in Greens in Regulation, which was the worst finish for any East Lake Champion in Greens in Regulation. Still, it shows that anything can happen.
That is why next up is scrambling: the greens are hard to hit, and when you miss the green, you have to get it up and down to win. On top of that, with the new renovation, the collars have now been shaved so that the ball will roll off the green, making it hard to get it up and down. Last year, East Lake was ranked 31st in scrambling, and in winning, Hovland was T-1st, getting it up and down 85.71%, with 12 of the 14 greens missing. In 2022, East Lake was ranked 40th in scrambling, and in winning, McIlroy was 23rd, getting it up and down 55.56%, 10 of the 18 greens missed. The previous year, 2021, Patrick Cantlay was 16th, getting it up and down 58.82%, 10 of 17 greens missed. In 2020, the winner, Dustin Johnson, was T-13th, getting it up and down 14 of 22 times. In 2019, McIlroy was 5th, as he got it up and down 68.18% of the time. The previous year, Tiger was 1st in scrambling, getting it up and down 70.83% of the time.
The last and vital stat for those playing the Donald Ross golf course is putting; last year, the course ranked T-51st on the PGA Tour. In Strokes Gained Putting, last year Viktor Hovland was 4th, in 2022 Rory McIlroy was 2nd, in 2021 Patrick Cantlay was 14th, in 2020 Johnson was 12th while in 2019 McIlroy was 11th, and in 2018 Tiger Woods was 2nd

This week’s format will make it hard to judge who could win, as half the field has been eliminated. But if Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, and Ludvig Aberg falter early, it will open up many more players chances and make the event very interesting. The one thing about this format is that on paper, it looks great, and many think that we can put either Scottie Scheffler’s or Xander Schauffele’s name on the trophy. However, after seeing what happened to Justin Thomas in 2019, having the lead for 72 holes is challenging. Weather is also going to play a part as it will be very hot, each day will be around 94 each day.  So, the big question with this forecast is whether it will change the characteristics of East Lake. With the course firm and hard, more players will have trouble hitting fairways and greens, which opens up the possibilities for those who could be better shotmakers to win.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then gets the ball on the green to determine who is best at all of these items.

*Greens in Regulation: Players that hit the most greens in regulation

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

Of the 30 players in the field, 30 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

The field is only 30, and with staggered to-par totals, it will make Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, and Ludvig Aberg very popular picks.  But in DraftKings, making birdies and eagles, plus playing low, plays an essential role in earning points.  So here is a cheat sheet to help you find a player with the most production value this week.

First up is birdie average

As you can see, Scottie Scheffler is first, Sam Burns is 2nd, Xander Schauffele is third.

But we need to find a more manageable cost-wise player. Tony Finau is 5th and costs $7,700. Wyndham Clark is 8th and costs $8,100. Tom Hoge is 8th and costs $6,100. Byeong Hun An is 11th and costs $7,200.

Our second stat is Par Breakers

The same problem exists: Scottie Scheffler is 1st, Sam Burns is 2nd, Xander Schauffele is 4th, Wyndham Clark is 5th, and Tony Finau is 6th.  All these players are costly, so we have to look for players with a better price.  Byeong Hun An is 11th on the Par Breaker list, only $7,200.  Now there are some cheap players that are high in Par Breakers, Sungjae Im is 19th and cost $7,500.  Taylor Pendrith is 29th and costs just $6,500.  Justin Thomas is 42nd and costs only $6,800.  The best bargain, Tom Hoge, is 9th and only costs $6,100.

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,200
• Xander Schauffele – $11,000
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,100
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,900
• Rory McIlroy – $9,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,400
• Colin Morikawa – $9,100

Just remember this week is not an ordinary PGA Tour event. There are only 30 players in the field, and with Scottie Scheffler starting at 10-under, it’s supposed to give him an advantage for leading the FedExCup rankings. That is why the figures seem out of wack, as the top three players are over $10,000, while there are ten players under $7,000. But before you get suckered in on picking one of those over $10,000, remember this. If you pick Scheffler at $12,200, that leaves you $37,800 to make five other picks or an average of $7,560. Most of the ten players under $7,000 are not worth considering. So think about who has the most firepower and makes the most birdies and eagles; those players will give you the most points. Another thing to remember is that winning is important because you gain 30 points. But let’s say you take Scheffler at $12,200, and he wins but has very little offense of making birdies and eagles; that 30 points honestly means very little. Try to find the person with the best shot at making eagles, earning 8 points. In looking at the history of East Lake, in the last eight years going back to 2011, 101 eagles have been made; of those in the field this year, here is the list of those that have made the most eagles:

• Rory McIlroy – 6
• Xander Schauffele – 5
• Justin Thomas – 3
• Sungjae Im – 3
• Hideki Matsuyama – 2
• Russell Henley – 2
• Tony Finau – 2
• Sepp Straka – 2
• Viktor Hovland – 2

Making birdies is also essential; a birdie gets you 3 points, so if you make 20 birdies, that’s 60 points. Since 2011 at East Lake, 5,582 birdies have been made, with the most being Rory McIlroy with 165. The next best is Hideki Matsuyama with 134, Xander Schauffele with 127, Justin Thomas with 125, and Adam Scott with 114. What about Scottie Scheffler, who has played four at East Lake and made 59 birdies (just a notch under 15 per event)? Also, Patrick Cantlay has played in six Tour Championships and made 80 birdies, which is a 13.33 per-event average.

Here are some others to think about:

• Tony Finau, with 108 birdies in 7 starts
• Billy Horschel, with 90 birdies in 6 starts
• Sungjae Im with 85 birdies in 5 starts
• Viktor Hovland With 69 birdies in 4 starts
• Keegan Bradley with 69 birdies in 5 starts
• Collin Morikawa, with 67 birdies in 4 starts
• Russell Henley, with 51 birdies in 3 starts

So let’s get down to the chase on all this; for Draftkings, I am hesitant, but I can’t endorse Scottie Scheffler at $12,200. Sure, he has a big advantage to start, but he has struggled in past years at the Tour Championship and has yet to play great; he won the Olympics, but his game looks tired after a long season. Still, anything is possible with Scottie, and we can’t underestimate him. But remember this: by taking Scottie, you can’t take anyone else for over $9,500. Many will take Xander Schauffele at $11,000. It makes sense; in 28 rounds, he has never shot over par, as he has 25 under-par rounds. In the past, I have been a big believer in Schauffele at East Lake, so it made sense. What worries me is the changes to the course. For Schauffele, it’s like trying to make the Mona Lisa look better; Much of what made Schauffele good at East Lake may have been dug up and replaced by something that Schauffele may not be able to handle. Despite playing well in the last few months, I am not picking him this week. Hideki Matsuyama at $10,100 is an easy no for me, sorry, but a combination of him struggling lately at East Lake, plus we don’t know if the back/neck will flair up. The last thing you want to experience is a withdrawal of Matsuyama. I picked him up in numerous DraftKings games last week, and he was a loser because of his withdrawal. The same is true with Robert MacIntyre, who withdrew due to back pains last week; he has flown in his trainer from Scotland to help ease the problem, but you can’t pick him. Could this be the week for Ludvig Aberg at $9,900? His game has been spotty all summer, but he looked good at Castle Pines, finishing T-2nd. The only problem, he shot a second-round 63 but was not good in his other rounds, shooting 72-71-71. I still think he is close; the course is perfect for him. Now we come to the most demanding player to judge, Rory McIlroy at $9,600. He has struggled since Pinehurst, plus he was T-68th at FedEx: St. Jude and T-11th at BMW. But the one thing about Rory is that he always does his best when you least expect it and always plays well at East Lake; this is the week to take Rory. Patrick Cantlay at $9,400, is also a good choice. He has played great at East Lake for the last three years, and his game has improved over the previous two weeks. As for Colin Morikawa at $9,100, he has been good and bad at East Lake. Last year, he opened with scores of 61-64 but shot 73-72 over the weekend, which hurt him. He has struggled with his game since the Memorial. He has been in the top 28 in his last eight starts from the Memorial, but other than his 2nd place at the Memorial and T-4th at the Scottish Open, he has yet to be in the top ten.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

So, the big question for Keegan Bradley at $8,700 is whether he can keep the good vibes going after his victory at Castle Pines. Do I think Bradley can do what Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, or Patrick Cantlay have done?

• 2012 Rory McIlroy won BMW, next week was T-10th at East Lake
• 2013 Zach Johnson won the BMW, next week was 7th at East Lake
• 2014 Billy Horschel won the BMW and won the next week at East Lake
• 2015 Jason Day won the BMW, next week was T-10th at East Lake
• 2016 Dustin Johnson won the BMW, next week was T-6th at East Lake
• 2017 Marc Leishman won the BMW, next week was T-24th at East Lake
• 2018 Keegan Bradley won the BMW, next week was T-26th at East Lake
• 2019 Justin Thomas won the BMW, next week was T-3rd at East Lake
• 2020 Jon Rahm won the BMW, next week was 4th at East Lake
• 2021 Patrick Cantlay won the BMW, next week also won at East Lake
• 2022 Patrick Cantlay won the BMW, next week was T-7th at East Lake
• 2023 Viktor Hovland won the BMW, and won the next week at East Lake

Sam Burns at $8,500, is a player to watch. Not only has he played great of late (T-12th at the 3M Open, T-5th at the FedEx St. Jude, and T-2nd at the BMW Championship), but Burns makes a lot of birdies and eagles and could earn a lot of points this week. Adam Scott at $7,900, is also a good pick. He played well last month and had six top-ten finishes in 12 Tour Championship starts, including a win at East Lake in 2006. Tony Finau at $7,700 is a reasonable price for a player who makes lots of eagles and birdies, plus has been playing better of late. Tommy Fleetwood at $7,600 is also an excellent price for a player who can get a top-five and win a lot of DraftKings points.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Tour Championship, those under $7,500

Billy Horschel at $7,100 is an incredible price for a guy who has won at East Lake, been runner-up, and has played well over the last month. Justin Thomas at $6,800 is also a great buy when you consider that in seven East Lake starts has two runner-up finishes and hasn’t finished worse than T-7th. He still needs to play great of late but hasn’t played poorly; he is still a great price. Tom Hoge at $6,100 is good since he makes a lot of eagles and birdies, he was 10th in his only East Lake start in 2022

Here are some of the secrets to playing well at East Lake:

Key stat for the winner:

• Let’s be frank: Of the 30 players on the field, only 10 can win. If you’re at 4 under, you can win if you play well. But even those guys have a long uphill slush as they need to go low. This is a four-person race between Scheffler, Schauffele, Bradley, and Aberg. These players have done great things in 2024, and I can see they are doing well. At the same time, we need to be cautious with Scheffler with his putting and Bradley winning last week. You also need to watch McIlroy because of his outstanding record in this event. That’s a lot of shots to make up, but if McIlroy could make up six shots in 18 holes, anything can happen with 72 holes.
• As was proven in past Tour Championships played at East Lake, it favors those that hit lots of greens. Just look at the 23 winners of previous Tour Championships at East Lake. Hal Sutton in 1998 was 1st while in 2000 Phil Mickelson was T4th in greens hit, Vijay Singh was T8th in 2002, Retief Goosen was first in 2004 and Bart Bryant first in 2005, Adam Scott was T6th in 2006 while in 2007 Tiger Woods led, in 2008 Camilo Villegas was T3rd while in 2009 Phil Mickelson was T8th. in 2010 Jim Furyk led the greens hit. Still, Bill Haas slacked off to T-11th in ’11, and Brandt Snedeker was T-7th in 2012. In 2013, Henrik Stenson proved the importance of hitting greens as he led that stat and the same was true in 2014 with Billy Horschel. In 2015, Jordan Speith was T-9th in greens hit, while in 2016, Rory McIlroy was 2nd in greens hit. 2017 Xander Schauffele was 2nd, hitting 56 of the 72 greens. Tiger Woods 2018 went against the grain when he hit only 48 greens and ranked T-14th. But as you can see, hitting greens is essential because if you miss a green at East Lake, getting up and down for par will be challenging. In 2019, Rory McIlroy hit 50 of the 72 greens and ranked T-5th, while Dustin Johnson in 2020 hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th. In 2021, Patrick Cantlay hit 55 of 72 greens to rank T-1st, showing that those who hit greens tend to do well on this course. In 2022, McIlroy hit 54 of 72 greens to rank T-4th, while last year, Viktor Hovland was T-1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 58 of 72 greens.
• Another key is holding the lead going into the final round. Of course, it didn’t work out very well for Scheffler in the last couple of years. But since 1987, the player who either led or had a share of the lead through 54 holes has gone on to win 20 out of 23 times – Tom Watson (1987), Curtis Strange (’88), Jodie Mudd (’90), Craig Stadler (’91), Paul Azinger (’92), Billy Mayfair (’95), Tom Lehman (’96), David Duval (’97), Tiger Woods (’99), Vijay Singh (2002), Chad Campbell in 2003, Bart Bryant in 2005, Adam Scott in 2006, Tiger Woods in 2007, Jim Furyk in 2010, Brandt Snedeker in 2012, Henrik Stenson in 2013, Billy Horschel in 2014 and Jordan Spieth in 2015.
• Check it out at GolfStats.Com.
• 2016 winner Rory McIlroy broke the streak as he was T-3rd, 4 shots back, and shot a final round 64 to tie for the lead before winning in a playoff. In 2017, Xander Schauffele was T-2nd, 2 shots back, and shot a final round 68 to win by a shot, while Tiger was co-leader in 2018. In 2019, Rory McIlroy went into the final round T-2nd and won, the same with Dustin Johnson, who shot 64 on Sunday to win. In 2021, Patrick Cantlay led by two going into the final round. In 2022, Scottie Scheffler had a six-shot lead going into the final round but lost to Rory McIlroy, who shot a final round 66 while Scheffler shot 73. Last year, Viktor Hovland had a six-shot lead over Xander Schauffele going into the final round and held on for the win.
• Experience and having a good year are also factors, especially coming into the event. Just look at the winners over the years. Viktor Hovland last year, Rory McIlroy in 2022, Patrick Cantlay in 2021, Dustin Johnson in 2020, Rory McIlroy in 2019 and 2016, Tiger Woods in 2018, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Henrik Stenson in 2013, Brandt Snedeker in 2012, Jim Furyk in 2010, Phil Mickelson the year before, Tiger Woods in 2007, Adam Scott the year before that. Bart Bryant in 2005 and Retief Goosen in 2004 were examples of this. Scott finished either 2nd or 3rd six times going into the event. Bryant won the Memorial early in the year, while Goosen won the U.S. Open and capped off with the Tour Championship. They all won, capping off great years, so this year’s winner will be one of the top three: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, or Ludvig Aberg. They have all had great seasons and could carry it on this week.
• One last thing to look for. Yes, the course is demanding and should be even better with the renovation. But as it goes into the year being played for the 24th time and the 21st year in a row as the host course, the pros are starting to learn it better and shoot lower scores. Yes, it will take four rounds in the ’60s to win, but other than Bart Bryant’s brilliant 17 under-par performance in 2005 and Tiger Woods’s 23 under performance in 2007, it’s rarely been taken apart. Look for that trend to get broken this year because of the changes made to the course.
• Lastly, the weather in Atlanta.  It’s going to be hot, hot, and very hot this week.