BlogSanderson Farms Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

What can be said about America winning again in the Presidents Cup? I know the PGA Tour makes a lot of money on these matches, but something has to be done to make it more competitive. As I said last week, there are two ways to help. First, add 12 female players, six American, and six International. With the great players from Korea and Japan, it will make the matches closer, and frankly, I feel adding women will create a certain appeal.

The second thing that can be done is to ensure that the 12 best International players are in the field, even those with no mark on the PGA Tour.  Right now you have to be a member of the PGA Tour to get in, this left off a dozen or so players who could of made the International Team better.  Off the top of my head, I feel that if Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Smith, or even Kensei Hirata had been on the team, it would have made the International team a lot better.

There is some player buzz from the Presidents Cup. Max Homa, who has not had a great 2024, fired his swing coach, Mark Blackburn.  Homa told the media that he is not currently working with a coach and is searching for one.  Homa and Blackburn have been working together since the 2020 U.S. Open, and since then, Homa has won five of his six PGA Tour victories.  Homa also had great years, in 2022 he was 5th in the FedEx Cup making $5.2 million.  The next year was even better, he was 9th in the FedEx Cup, but won twice ad earned $10.8 million.

Let’s talk about the Sanderson Farms:

The Sanderson Farms has been a part of the PGA Tour since 1968 when the tournament was known as the Magnolia Classic and was played in Hattiesburg.  It became an official event in 1986, and its first eight years were played opposite to the Masters, before changing dates to July in 1994.  Of all the events on tour, it’s one of the lowest in attracting marquee players, but since the chicken company Sanderson Farms took over sponsorship in 2013, it’s always had its niche as a fall event.  Despite having a contract through 2026, the company decided to drop its title sponsorship after this year and downgrade to a major sponsor.  That means the event needs a new company to take over sponsorship, thus putting some strain on tournament and PGA tour officials.  I can see the concern, it’s in a small town in Jackson, Mississippi and getting a sponsor to pay up to $10 million for this event is a hard sell.  It’s also up against football and both Mississippi State and Ole Miss are more appealing for the community.   Of course, the tournament has seen tougher times, but that was in an era where an event could survive without a title sponsor.  Without one, the odds are that this event will cease to exist, which will be a shame since the tournament has raised more than $17 million for local charities since Sanderson Farms took over in 2013.  Still, it’s concerning for the PGA Tour, which has weathered a half dozen sponsors leaving.  In the coming weeks the faith of LIV Golf will come to a resolution and if by chance LIV Golf mysteriously goes away (yes, this could happen) it would help slow down sponsors leaving.

Here are some tournament and course information:

This event has been played in Mississippi since 1968.  Initially, it was an unofficial event, and it became an official event on the PGA Tour in 1986.  In its first year and until 1993, it played opposite to the Masters.  It was called the Deposit Guaranty and was played at Hattiesburg C.C. in Hattiesburg, Miss.  Not only did the date change to July and opposite the British Open, but in 1994, the event moved to Madison, Miss, and the Annandale Country Club.  It again was moved in the schedule in 1999 when it was opposite the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup and the Presidents Cup.  In 2011 it switched back to July and the same week as the British Open, with Sanderson Farms taking over in 2013.  Not only did the date change, but the course was different for the first time in 20 years as it moved to The Country Club of Jackson.

The course wasn’t the whole reason for the change. Unlike Annandale, the country club offers more than 120,000 square feet of roofed infrastructure for hospitality, which means more money will be donated to charity. The course is also terrific and has undergone a lot of changes. The biggest change is that the fairways have been narrowed and a second cut added, with the rough being allowed to grow in.

The course is a John Fought design with “Golden Age” architectural features, including pushed-up greens and closely mown run-off areas. If the course stays dry, the greens will be treacherous, which could make things interesting.

The site had a fascinating history because it was better known in Mississippi not for golf but for a famous raid in 1966 that caused liquor to be legalized in the state. So, the Country Club of Jackson will this week be remembered as the site that changed the last dry state in the United States instead of for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sanderson Farms Championship:

This event is always up for grabs. Not many players have any history at Country Club of Jackson, so it’s always hard to pick this event. But we learned a lot in the last ten years it’s been played there. First, hitting greens is important. C.C. of Jackson ranked in the middle in hitting greens, while it was the 45th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 70.25 scoring average.

On the face of it we’re looking at a pretty long golf course, with the par-five fifth hole able to stretch to 612 yards before the difficult-looking sixth at close to 500 (482). Holes 14 and 15 would look to offer up birdie opportunities before a tough closing stretch, in which the finishing hole is a 505-yard, par 4.  Oh, for the record there is no let-up on the par-4s, only one the 16th is under 400 yards so maybe a power hitter is the player to look for.  The par 5s played tough last year as they averaged four under per player.

This is also one of those courses that you have to hit it long and straight.  Last year it ranked 16th in driving distance but in 2016 it was 1st and in 2015 it was 10th.  In looking at our ten winners at C.C. of Jackson the first four champions were mostly short hitters, but the last four winners hit it long so the course has in a way changed to a bombers course.  Look for long-hitters to do very well this week.

The average winning score from the last ten years has been a notch below 19 under. So, going low will be a premium in Mississippi.

The weather is going to be perfect for the week. Winds will be low, so look for low scoring, like last year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Country Club of Jackson.

This is based on the most vital stats from Country Club of Jackson, data from last year’s Sanderson Farms, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. Now, in 2023, because of the change in the schedule, the Sanderson Farms was played twice in September of 2202, which we call the 2023-1 event, and last year, which we call the 2023-2. The big problem is that the PGA Tour hasn’t listed the 2023-2 event stats, so we can’t compare them. But we have Luke List stats, who won it in 2023-2.
As we delve into the rich history of the Sanderson Farms tournament, we find that last year marked the tenth year that C.C. of Jackson has been its esteemed host. Reflecting on the stats from the winners of these events dating back to 2013, we observe a compelling trend. Each champion has excelled in Greens hit, with nine of the 11 champions ranking in the top ten in this stat. The 2021 & ’22 winners, Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns, even led the field in Greens Hit. Another stat that leaps out is the number of birdies made, a testament to the skill and determination required to emerge victorious.

The par 72 track at the Sanderson Farms tournament is a fascinating study in unpredictability. In 2023-2, it played to a 70.25 average, making it the 45th hardest course on Tour. The previous year (2023-1), it played a shot harder at 71.15 due to adverse weather conditions, ranking it the 30th hardest course on Tour. However, in 2022, the course played to a 69.87 average under perfect conditions, more than two shots under par per round. It ranked 45th out of 50 courses, and only two full-field events played over four days played easier. This unpredictability adds an extra layer of excitement to the tournament, especially when the weather is perfect, as it will be this week.

The other big question is, does the course favor long hitters? Is it a bombers’ paradise? It’s not a haven for long-hitters. Yes, long hitters won in 2019, ’20 & ’21. The champions have been long off the tee, but long hitters don’t have that significant advantage. Finesse around the greens is effortless; the course ranked 40th last year and, in 2022, 41st out of 50 courses in scrambling, so that stat is not vital in the scheme of things. Scrambling is a statistic that measures a player’s ability to recover from a missed green and still make par, and the winners of the Sanderson Farms have not necessarily excelled in this area. So, what is the prototype for winning the Sanderson Farms?

In our four categories, we have picked four that are needed to win. First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-the-Green, which looks at the length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens. Last year (2023-2), was won by Luke List, and he was 14th in this stat. The previous year (2023-1), the average drive was 293.5 yards for all drives and ranked 22nd, meaning that 16 other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 8th with 51.06% of the drives in the fairway, meaning that you can’t be wild and win at C.C. of Jackson. In 2022, the average drive was 294.4 yards for measured drives and ranked 22nd, meaning only 14 other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. Looking at the 2023-1 winner, Mackenzie Hughes, he ranked T-26th in driving distance and T-50th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2022, Sam Burns ranked 17th in driving distance and T-8th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2021, winner Sergio Garcia ranked 9th in driving distance and T-14th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. As for 2020 winner Sebastian Munoz, he ranked 3rd in Driving Distance and T-36th in Accuracy, so he ranked 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. So we can see a trend for the last four champions: driving is vital at Sanderson Farms.

Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This type of course is where greens are easy to hit in regulation, as Luke List hit 56 of the 72 greens and ranked T-7th. The previous year, 2023-1, the C.C. of Jackson was ranked 21st on Tour with 64.54% of the greens hit. The year before, 2022, the course was 37th on Tour, with 70.36% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner last year, Hughes hit 48 of 72 greens for a 66.67% ranking T-37th, which is poor. The previous year saw Sam Burns hit 63 of 72 greens for 87.50%, ranking 1st. In 2021, Garcia hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, ranking T-1st. In 2020, winner Munoz hit 57 of 72 for 79.17%, which ranked T-9th.

Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting, an integral part of the game. Last year’s winner, Luke List, was 7th in Strokes Gained Putting. The year before, 2023-1, the putting average at C.C. of Jackson was 1.738 as the course ranked T-37th, meaning that the overall course is easy to putts on. It averaged 28.44 putts per round, ranking it 39th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked T-36th. As for 2023-1 winner Hughes, he took 107 putts, ranked 1st, and in Strokes Gained Putting, was ranked 14th, showing that putting was more critical than ball striking. In 2022, the putting average at C.C. of Jackson was 1.712 as the course ranked 44th. It averaged 28.42 putts per round, ranking it 37th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked T-21st. As for 2022 winner Burns, he took 115 putts, which ranked T-52nd, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked 57th, showing that ball striking was more important than putting. 2021 Garcia took 115 putts, ranking T-42nd, and Strokes Gained Putting was 28th. In putts inside ten feet, he ranked T-36th, making 65 of 74 putts. In 2020, Munoz took 112 putts, ranked T-14th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 5th. In the critical putts made inside 10 feet, Munoz made 63 of 70 and ranked T-16th.

The last category is Par Breakers. Last year, 1,739 birdies were made, and the winner, Luke List, made 23, which was tied for first. List ranked T-1st in Par Breakers. The year before, 2023-1, 1,678 birdies were made, with only 12 other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 32 eagles, which ranked T-33rd. 2023-1 winner Mackenzie Hughes made 21 birdies, ranked T-5th, and didn’t make an eagle. So Hughes was T-5th in Par Breaker. In 2022, 1,846 birdies were made at the Country Club of Jackson, with 12 other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 47 eagles, which ranked 40th. 2022 winner Sam Burns made 26 birdies, ranked 2nd, and didn’t make an eagle. So Burns was 2nd in Par Breaker. In 2021, Sergio Garcia made 22 birdies, ranked T-2nd, and made one eagle. So Garcia was T-2nd in Par Breaker. In 2020, Munoz made 21 birdies and no eagles, as he was T-6th in Par Breakers.
So we can see this week’s trend: hit fairways and greens and make a lot of birdies.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent to putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 132 players in the field, 100 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2024.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Keith Mitchell – $10,400
• Seamus Power – $10,200
• MacKenzie Hughes – $10,000
• J.J. Spaun – $9,900
• Maverick McNealy – $9,800
• Nick Dunlap – $9,700
• Ben Griffin – $9,500
• Patrick Fishburn – $9,400
• Eric Cole – $9,200
• Patrick Rodgers – $9,100
• Stephan Jaeger – $9,000

Like in Napa three weeks ago, the person you least expect to win will be the winner. So, we have to find the next Patton Kizzire.  Could Keith Mitchell at $10,400 be that man?  I tend to doubt it, first he hasn’t made the cut in four of his starts at C.C. of Jackson.  He does have a pair of T-12th finishes in his last two starts at Wyndham and Procore, and he has good driving and greens hit but is terrible in putting.  I feel it will be more of a struggle to make the cut, let alone winning it.  As for Seamus Power at $10,200, his price is too high for a person who hasn’t done anything good in over a year.  MacKenzie Hughes at $10,000 is a thought since he won this in 2023 and was T-4th in his last start at the Procore.  But his record was 1-3-0 at the Presidents Cup, and driving and hitting greens have been a problem in the last year. As for J.J. Spaun, at $9,900, he had a pair of top-tens in July/August, but still, his price is too high.  For those in this price range, I can see picking Maverick McNealy at $9,800.  He has good stats for the course and was T-17th last year at the Sanderson Farms.  He is ready to break out and can do it this week.  For Nick Dunlap at $9,700, this is just down the road from his home in Alabama, this is his first go on this course and he has played well over the summer, so he is a good pick.  The same for Ben Griffin at $9,500, he was T-2nd last year and played good over the summer.  Another good choice is Patrick Fishburn at $9,400, he is a rookie this week but played well over the summer including finishing 3rd at the Procore, his last start.  Eric Cole at $9,200 is a tossup pick, he played well this summer but is still not strong in hitting fairways and greens.  Patrick Rodgers at $9,100 is a no for me, yes if you want a guy that will finish 30th, Rodgers is you guy, but his price is too high for finishing 30th.  Stephan Jaeger at $9,000 is also a no for me, sorry but hasn’t played well since winning in Houston in March.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Need to look carefully at this price range, this is were the champion will come from.  At good example of a person to watch is Matthew McCarty at $8,800, he was great on the Korn Ferry Tour with two wins in August.  Also, like Adam Svensson at $8,700, he was T-7th at Wyndham and T-13th at Procore.  Matt Kuchar at $8,500 is also a good choice, has never played at C.C. of Jackson but finishing his year playing well.  Also, like Justin Lower at $7,900, he played well at Procore, finishing T-7th.  Charley Hoffman at $7,800 is a reasonable price; this is the type of course he plays well on.  Emiliano Grillo at $7,700 is a good choice, one thing you can bet on he will make the cut, he could get rolling and be better than some think.  Rickie Fowler is $7,700, and we have to think that he has been working hard on his game and will be the Rickie Fowler we remember him being.  I think he wants to show off his game since he has never played in this event until this year.  Taylor Moore at $7,600 is a good choice, he has made three of three previous cuts in this event and I think he has a great chance for a top ten this week.

Some of the “bargains” this week at Sanderson Farms

I like C.T. Pan at $7,500, he has played well in this event with three top-12 finishes in his last four starts in this event.  He was runner-up at the John Deere.  Henrik Norlander at $7,500 is a great choice, considering he was T-4th at C.C. of Jackson in 2021 & ’22, T-24th in the first 2023 event, and T-2nd the last time it was played.  Cameron Champ at $7,400 has the risk of missing the cut since he misses the cut in 65% of the events he plays in, but this course seems to be good for him, he won in 2019 and was T-9th last year.  But buyer beware there is risk in taking him.  Pierceson Coody, at $7,000, is a good choice, he has played well, making his last eight cuts, including finishing T-2nd at the ISCO and T-5th at Colonial.  Peter Malnati at $6,800 is a good choice since he has played well in this event including a win in 2016 and runner-up in 2021.