BlogShriners Children’s Open Preview and Picks

Shriners Children’s Open

October 17th – 20th, 2024

TPC Summerlin

Las Vegas, NV

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,255

Purse: $7 million

with $1,260,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tom Kim

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 32 of the top 100 and 6 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with no top ten players in the field.  Those top-100 players are #25 Tom Kim, #40 Davis Thompson, #43 Cam Davis, #45 Stephan Jaeger, #46 Taylor Pendrith, #47 Matt McCarty, #52 Adam Hadwin, #55 Eric Cole, #56 Nick Taylor, #58 Austin Eckroat, #61 Tom Hoge, #64 J.T. Poston, #67 Harris English, #68 Ben Griffin, #70 Erik Van Rooyen, #71 Kevin Yu, #72 Kurt Kitayama, #73 Rickie Fowler, #74 Maverick McNealy, #75 Taylor Moore, #76 Emiliano Grillo, #77 Ryan Fox, #79 Beau Hossler, #81 Brendon Todd, #82 Jhonattan Vegas, #83 Adam Schenk, #84 Keith Mitchell, #89 Ben Kohles, #90 Lee Hodges, #91 Patton Kizzire, #93 Davis Riley, and #100 Matt Kuchar.

Last year, there were 32 top-100 players and 8 out of the top-50.

The field includes five past champions: Tom Kim (2023a & 23b), Martin Laird (2021 & 2009), Ben Martin (2015), Webb Simpson (2014), and Ryan Moore (2012).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in the last five years, or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Shriners Children’s Open

Player Black Desert Sanderson Farms Korn Ferry Tour Champ. Procore Champ. Nationwide Children’s Simmons Bank Tour Champ. Boise Open BMW Champ. FedEx St. Jude Wyndham Champ. 3M Open Barracuda Champ.
Matt McCarty
(232.67 pts)
Win
(132)
T63
(0)
DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
T35
(10)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Patton Kizzire
(144 pts)
T43
(7)
T11
(39)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T8
(16.67)
Beau Hossler
(138.33 pts)
T11
(39)
2
(100)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Stephan Jaeger
(134.17 pts)
2
(100)
T23
(27)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T39
(5.5)
T40
(5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Kevin Yu
(125.33 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T73
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Matti Schmid
(116.67 pts)
5
(70)
T16
(34)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T64
(0)
T12
(12.67)
T57
(0)
Keith Mitchell
(116 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T3
(90)
DNP 12
(25.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Seamus Power
(109.67 pts)
T11
(39)
T11
(39)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T10
(20)
T28
(7.33)
T37
(4.33)
DNP
Alex Smalley
(103.33 pts)
T25
(25)
T5
(70)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T12
(12.67)
T33
(5.67)
Patrick Fishburn
(98.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T48
(2)
DNP 3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T6
(20)
3
(30)
Taylor Pendrith
(97.17 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T14
(18)
DNP T13
(18.5)
T22
(14)
DNP 5
(23.33)
T5
(23.33)
Henrik Norlander
(94.33 pts)
T8
(50)
T28
(22)
DNP T61
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T12
(12.67)
T11
(13)
J.J. Spaun
(88 pts)
T25
(25)
WD
(-5)
DNP T26
(16)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T3
(30)
T9
(15)
T29
(7)
Kevin Streelman
(88 pts)
T3
(90)
T42
(8)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T64
(0)
DNP
Jhonattan Vegas
(88 pts)
DNP T23
(27)
DNP T32
(12)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T40
(5)
T61
(0)
Win
(44)
DNP
Joe Highsmith
(80 pts)
T6
(60)
T55
(0)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T44
(2)
CUT
(-3.33)
Nick Hardy
(74.67 pts)
T8
(50)
T28
(22)
DNP T50
(0.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(4)
T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Greyson Sigg
(72.33 pts)
T11
(39)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Ben Griffin
(67.5 pts)
T11
(39)
T37
(13)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T50
(0.5)
T7
(18.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Charley Hoffman
(67.33 pts)
DNP T28
(22)
DNP T26
(16)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
T59
(0)
T8
(16.67)
Bud Cauley
(65.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T5
(70)
DNP T32
(12)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Tom Hoge
(64.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP DNP T29
(10.5)
DNP T13
(18.5)
T46
(2)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Rico Hoey
(63.67 pts)
T21
(29)
68
(0)
DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T22
(9.33)
T67
(0)
T8
(16.67)
Eric Cole
(63.67 pts)
DNP T16
(34)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T46
(2)
T18
(16)
T7
(18.33)
DNP DNP
Morgan Hoffmann
(62 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T3
(60)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Vince Whaley
(60.67 pts)
67
(0)
T16
(34)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 63
(0)
DNP 2
(33.33)
Daniel Berger
(60 pts)
T35
(15)
7
(55)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T45
(1.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
WD
(-1.67)
Justin Lower
(60 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T28
(22)
DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(5.67)
T33
(5.67)
DNP
Adam Svensson
(59 pts)
T25
(25)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T7
(18.33)
T37
(4.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Matt Kuchar
(57.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
T3
(30)
DNP
Emiliano Grillo
(56.17 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(8.5)
T59
(0)
T24
(8.67)
DNP
Jacob Bridgeman
(56 pts)
T46
(4)
T11
(39)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
T19
(10.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Doug Ghim
(55.67 pts)
T25
(25)
T33
(17)
DNP T47
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T41
(3)
T24
(8.67)
DNP
Ben Silverman
(53.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T53
(0)
T40
(3.33)
Chan Kim
(53.33 pts)
T46
(4)
T33
(17)
DNP T26
(16)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T29
(7)
Dan McCarthy
(49.33 pts)
DNP DNP T44
(6)
DNP T7
(36.67)
T35
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Cam Davis
(47 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(35)
T40
(5)
CUT
(-3.33)
T19
(10.33)
DNP
Chad Ramey
(45 pts)
T21
(29)
WD
(-5)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T52
(0)
T24
(8.67)
T13
(12.33)
Harris English
(43.33 pts)
T6
(60)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T61
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Ben Kohles
(43.33 pts)
T46
(4)
T16
(34)
DNP T64
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T24
(8.67)
DNP
Kurt Kitayama
(41.67 pts)
T25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T6
(20)
DNP
K.H. Lee
(40.67 pts)
T46
(4)
T23
(27)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T41
(3)
T9
(15)
WD
(-1.67)
Ryan Fox
(39.67 pts)
T46
(4)
T11
(39)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Gary Woodland
(39 pts)
DNP T16
(34)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T28
(7.33)
T37
(4.33)
DNP
Michael Thorbjornsen
(39 pts)
WD
(-5)
T8
(50)
DNP T50
(0.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T61
(0)
Lee Hodges
(38.67 pts)
T8
(50)
T48
(2)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
David Lipsky
(36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Austin Eckroat
(34.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T46
(2)
T18
(16)
6
(20)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Rickie Fowler
(34 pts)
DNP T16
(34)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Maverick McNealy
(34 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(19)
T45
(1.67)
T3
(30)
DNP
Chandler Phillips
(32.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T33
(17)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(4)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Neal Shipley
(32.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T37
(4.33)
T40
(3.33)
Nico Echavarria
(31.67 pts)
T11
(39)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T22
(9.33)
DNP DNP
Andrew Novak
(30.67 pts)
WD
(-5)
T23
(27)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T52
(0)
T24
(8.67)
DNP
Brendon Todd
(30.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T44
(4)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T22
(14)
T12
(12.67)
DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Shriners Children’s Open

Player Black Desert Sanderson Farms Korn Ferry Tour Champ. Procore Champ. Nationwide Children’s Simmons Bank Tour Champ. Boise Open BMW Champ. FedEx St. Jude Wyndham Champ. 3M Open Barracuda Champ.
Troy Merritt
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Ryan Brehm
(-33.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
56
(0)
Camilo Villegas
(-33.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Ryan McCormick
(-31.67 pts)
WD
(-5)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Kevin Dougherty
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T64
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Ben Taylor
(-29.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T52
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T50
(0.33)
Robby Shelton
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T67
(0)
52
(0)
Tyson Alexander
(-26.67 pts)
T54
(0)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Peter Malnati
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T59
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
65
(0)
Callum Tarren
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T61
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz

Off to Sin City:

The oldest running fall event, Shriners Hospitals for Children, has all the glamour of Las Vegas on a course that many players like to play on. For some, this will be a fun week with a little bit of golf mixed in with the fast-paced action of Las Vegas.

Founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic, the event has undergone six name changes in its history. In 2006, Frys.Com became the title sponsor for the event, replacing its former title, the Michelin Championship at Las Vegas. 2007 was the final year of Fry’s involvement, and in 2008, Justin Timberlake took on the duties of becoming the tournament presenter, with Shriners Hospitals for Children sponsoring the event. Timberlake is no longer associated with the tournament.

At the tournament’s inception, the tournament managers prided themselves on running a tournament that stood out amongst the slew of annual PGA events. It was the first event to offer a total purse of $1 million; at the trophy presentation, the winner used to receive his trophy with two showgirls by his side. Though these ideas help separate the event from others, the most drastic deviation from the norm is the tournament’s format, which in a way, “borrowed” the format at the Bob Hope Open.

In its inception, the tournament was played over five rounds at between three and four courses. However, in 2003, when the original tournament founders abdicated control to another volunteer organization, the event was immediately switched to the more conventional four-round format. Over the years, courses have been dropped, and for the 16th straight year, it’s only played on the TPC Summerlin.

One thing about this event is that it’s always lovely winning an event, but some of its past champions never got back to the winner’s circle again on the PGA Tour. Look at the 23 past winners since 2000, only 13 Tom Kim (2023, Kevin Na (2019), Bryson DeChambeau (2019), Patrick Cantlay (2018), Webb Simpson (2014), Ryan Moore (2012), Kevin Na (2011), Jonathan Byrd (2010), Martin Laird (2021 & ’09), George McNeill (2007), Troy Matteson (2006), Stuart Appleby (2003) and Bob Estes (2001) won again on the PGA Tour. The others, Sungjae Im (2021), Martin Laird (2020), Rod Pampling (2017), Smylie Kaufman (2016), Ben Martin (2015), Marc Turnesa (2008), Wes Short Jr. (2005), Andre Stolz (2004), Phil Tataurangi (2002), and Billy Andrade (2000) never made it back to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour. Some of them don’t even play anymore on the PGA Tour.

Course information:

TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1992. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The tees, fairways, and rough all comprise 419 Bermuda Grass, cut at 3/8″, 3/8″, and 2″, respectively. The greens consist of a 1/8″ cut of A-1/A-4 Creeping Bent Grass. This short cut mixed with the always speedy Bent Grass, explains the rather Stimpmeter reading of 11 feet. As for hazards, the course features 99 sand bunkers (with 51 around the greens), and water comes into play on four holes.

The signature hole at TPC Summerlin is the short 341-yard par-four 15th hole. The sizeable elevated green is reachable from the tee; however, numerous bunkers guard the green, making the play risky but possibly very rewarding. As for accolades, Golf Digest rated this as the fourth “Best in State” course for 1995-96 and the fifth-best for 1997-98. Also, GolfWeek awarded it 98th in the “America’s 100 Best Modern Courses” category for 1997.

Last year was the 16th time that Summerlin was the only course used.  In 2009, they made significant changes, switching par to 71 by making the third hole a long par 4 at 473 yards. In addition to this change, trees were added along the fairways’ right side on Nos. 9 and 16, both par 5s. The rough has also grown longer than in years past, and for holes 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, and 16, the fairways will be between 3 and 5 yards narrower than in 2008. All of these changes were made to try and make the course play a bit tougher, but the key to this course playing tough is wind.  Without it, the pros have a field day on it.

There are many birdies on this course. Last year, 1,747 were made (there were fewer players in the field), along with 79 eagles. The finish is demanding, with the par 3 17th hole being the hardest hole at 3.232, while the 18th hole was the 11th hardest at 3.929.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Summerlin.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. Now, in 2023, because of the change in the schedule, the Shriners Hospital for Children was played twice for 2023, first the 2202 event, which we call the 2023-1 event, and last year, which we call the 2023-2. The big problem is that the PGA Tour hasn’t listed the 2023-2 event stats, so we can’t compare them. But we have Tom Kim’s stats, who won it in 2023-2.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour. It was the first part of the Shriners rota in 1992, just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995, it was the home course of the event and became the tournament’s sole venue in 2008. The course has always been well respected, a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course since they can score low on a typical day without wind.

The last three years have seen calm and perfect playing conditions. Last year in 2023-1, the course played to a 69.29 average and was the 44th if 58 courses, for the 2023-1, the course played to a 69.00 average and was the 48th if 58 courses. In 2022, the course played to a 68.93 average, making it the 42nd hardest of 50 courses on the 2022 PGA Tour schedule. The same is true in 2021, as the course played easy at a 68.34 average, ranking it 48th of 51 courses. Of the three courses that played easier in 2021 (Sherwood C.C., Caves Valley & Kapalua), they didn’t have full-field events, so the course was the easiest in events that had full fields. The same with 2020, it played to a 68.88 average, which ranked 39th on the PGA Tour. Only two courses played easier that year; both were at the American Express, so TPC Summerlin played the easiest full-field course on the PGA Tour 2020. The course played to a 69.13 average in the previous year, which ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour. But the year before, in 2018, in very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the course played much tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 10th most demanding course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things. In 2017, Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th most challenging course on tour. So, with that, it changed the minds of many who thought the course was a bomber’s delight.
If you look at the winners of this event since 2008, only two bombers won, Bryson DeChambeau in 2019 and Smylie Kaufman in 2016. Last year’s champion, Tom Kim, finished the year T-121st in Driving distance as he was 48th in 2023-2, hitting 303.3, and for the 2023-1 event, he was 56th with an average drive of 299.1. In 2022 SingJae Im, finished the year 80th in driving distance and ranked 26th during the Shriners. In looking at the other winners, champions like Martin Laird, Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers, so they don’t hit it far. 2021 winner Martin Laird was 15th during the week in driving distance (was T-104th for 2021). The year before, champion Kevin Na was 25th at the Shriners in driving distance, but for the year, he was 170th, one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019, before Bryson DeChambeau became the longest hitter on tour, he was 30th for the week and T-34th over the 2019 season. In 2018, Patrick Cantlay was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for the year.

So, what kind of players win at TPC Summerlin?

Of the 17 champions since 2007, eight were in the top-five of greens in regulation, and only two winners, Patrick Cantlay in 2017 was T-17th, and Kevin Na in 2020 was T-46th, were both higher than 15th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). In 2023-2, Tom Kim was T-40th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 54 of 72 greens. In 2023-1, Tom Kim was 3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 63 of 72 greens. In 2022, Sungjae Im was 1st in Greens hit, joining Bob Estes (2001) as the only two players since 1996 to lead the Greens in Regulation category. Another essential item is putting. Six winners were in the top 10 in putting average, with only four not in the top 25 (Kim was T-15th lin 2023-1 and T-10th in 2023-2. Im was T-16th in 2022, Laird was T-25th in 2021, Na was 1st in 2020). The one essential stat is that 12 of the previous 17 winners were in double digits in under-par figures on the par 4s. Last year’s winner (2023-2) Tom Kim was 13 under while in 2023-1 Kim, was 11 under, 2022 winner Sungjae Im was 15 under, the best total of a winner since Bob Estes in 2001 was 18 under. In 2010, winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under. In 2017, Rod Pampling was 13 under, 2018 champion Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s, Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under in 2019, Kevin Na was 10 under in 2020 the same as Laird was in 2021.

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 41st most challenging course to drive in 2023. The average of all the players in 2023 was 64.54%, compared to the hardest course for the year, Oak Hill Country Club (site of the PGA Championship). The average for the week in 2023-1 was 45.04%, meaning that the fairways of TPC Summerlin are easier to hit, meaning players rear back, and it hit far. It was the same in 2022 when TPC Summerlin was the 42nd hardest course to drive. In 2021, driving in the fairway in calm conditions was the 37th most challenging course. In 2020, it was the 35th hardest course to drive in the fairway in calm conditions, but in windy conditions in 2018, it was the 8th hardest course to drive. In 2017, it was 7th, the hardest in looking at the history of the course. In 2016, it ranked 11th; in 2015, it was 17th, so hitting it straight is essential. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them except Kevin Na finished in the top 20, with last year’s winner Tom Kim (2023-2) ranking T-5th and in 2023-1 Kim ranked T-14th. 2022 winner Sungjae Im ranking T-19th, 2021 winner Martin Laird ranking T-5th and 2020 winner Kevin Na ranked T-25th in driving accuracy.

Some other keys to playing well are making lots of birdies; last year 2023-2, Tom Kim made 27 birdies while in 2023-1 Kim had 24. 2022 winner SungJae Im made 26, 2021 winner Martin Laird made 22, and in 2020, Kevin Na had 26 birdies and ranked 3rd. In 2019, DeChambeau had 22 birdies, while in 2018, Cantlay had 20 birdies, which were tied for most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played.

One essential item is the weather. This year, every day will be primarily perfect in Las Vegas, with lots of sun and temperatures ranging from 65 degrees on Friday to 81 on Thursday, 71 on Saturday, and 74 on Sunday. Last year, the wind was very low, averaging about 10 mph each day, this year, it will be very windy on Thursday and Friday averaging 18 mph going down to 12 mph on Saturday and 6 mph on Sunday. So, look for the scores to be a bit higher than previous years..

In looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So, we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. For Tom Kim, last year, 2023-2, he was 38th, while in 2023-1, he was 32nd. In 2022, SungJae Im was 9th, in 2021, Laird was 26th, while Na ranked 54th in 2000. However, in 2019, Bryson DeChambeau was 6th, and in 2018, winner Patrick Cantlay was 1st.
Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked 20th in that stat and 49th in greens in regulation last year (2023-2) The previous year, 2023-1, the course ranked 19th in that stat and 47th in greens in regulation. The course was 11th in 2022 and 50th in greens in regulation in 2022 while the winner Im ranked 16th, Martin Laird ranked 44th in 2021, Kevin Na was terrible, ranking 60th, but in 2019, DeChambeau was 10th. Also, wind plays a significant factor in this stat. In 2018, in the wind, it was 5th in Proximity to Hole and 28th in Greens in Regulation, which means many greens will be hit.
Next, we pick scrambling and sand saves because you must make par if the greens are missed. Last year 2023-2, the field averaged 28th in scrambling, and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 15th in sand save percentage, so our third category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Tom Kim was 58th in Strokes Gained Around the Green as Kim was T-9th in scrambling and T-12th in Sand Save percentage. For 2023-1, the field averaged 25th in scrambling and 14th in sand save percentage. Tom Kim was 19th in Strokes Gained Around the Green as Kim was 1st in scrambling and T-59th in Sand Save percentage. In 2022, the field averaged 28th in scrambling and 25th in sand save percentage. Im was 13th in 2022 in Strokes Gained Around the Green. Laird was great in this stat in 2021, ranking 4th.
Our last category is par breakers, the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lots of birdies and eagles is essential, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin. Last year (2023-2), Tom Kim made 27 birdies and one eagle as he was 1sst in Par Breakers. For the 2023-1 event, 1,956 birdies and 41 eagles were made. 2023-1 winner, Tom Kim, made 24 birdies but didn’t have any eagles, so he ranked 5th in Par Breakers. In 2022, 1,905 birdies were made and 43 birdies. The course was T-44th in Par Breakers. 2022 winner Sungjae Im made 26 birdies (2nd) and one eagle and was 2nd in Par Breakers. In 2021, Laird was T-4th. In 2020, Na was 1st in Par Breakers, DeChambeau was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Cantlay was T-2nd in 2018.
So, in the long run, what does this mean? This is a bomber delight and look for the player who hits it long-winning.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then gets the ball on the green, determining who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of a shot going into the green from off the fairway.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

108 of the 132 players from this year’s field with stats from 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

  • Tom Kim – $10,800
  • Davis Thompson – $10,300
  • Taylor Pendrith – $10,200
  • Stephan Jaeger – $9,900
  • Tom Hoge – $9,800
  • Kurt Kitayama – $9,700
  • Beau Hossler – $9,500
  • Seamus Power – $9,300
  • Keith Mitchell – $9,200
  • Matt McCarty – $9,100
  • Eric Cole – $9,000

Yes, he has won two Shriners in a row, so you think maybe he knows something about this.  But Tom Kim at $10,800 has been inconsistent, and I don’t see any way he makes it back to the winner’s circle for the three-peat.  Davis Thompson at $10,300 is a thought; he has played okay in Vegas and has been hot since finishing T-9th at the U.S. Open.  His win at the John Deere is on a course that is a bit like TPC Summerlin, so it’s worth a try.  Taylor Pendrith, at $10,200, is a good choice, he was T-3rd last year and after a terrible start to his year, but in his last 15 starts, he only missed one cut, won the Byron Nelson, and had nine top 20 finishes.  Stephan Jaeger at $9,900 may have the season stats, but he hasn’t played well in Las Vegas and, despite making lots of cuts, seems to love finishing 25th each week.  Tom Hoge at $9,800 could surprise us, but I think he is priced too high to take a gamble on him. Kurt Kitayama, at $9,700, is three for three in missing the cut at the Shriners. He has struggled most of the year and is a no for me.  Beau Hossler at $9,500 has made six of six cuts in Vegas and was T-7th last year.  Has played well in his last two starts, 2nd at Sanderson Farms and T-11th at Black Desert, he is a yes for me.  Seamus Power at $9,300 has had to fight back after injury, I say no despite some good play in his last four starts, but he is a no because of poor play in this event.  Like Keith Mitchell at $9,200, he has missed four of five cuts at the Shriners and the cut last week at the Black Desert.  Matt McCarty at $9,100 is on a roll, winning three Korn Ferry events over the summer and winning last week.  So keep up the support for him.  Eric Cole, at $9,000, did finish T-3rd last year in Las Vegas, but he is still struggling, so he is a no.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Have to say that there are some good picks in this price range.  First is Adam Hadwin at $8,900, his record at TPC Summerlin is good, he was 2nd last year, T-10th the previous year and T-6th in 2022.  He hasn’t played great over the summer, but he loves playing in the desert and will do well for you this week.  Cam Davis at $8,800 is also a great pick, he has made five of five cuts at the Shriners and was T-7th last year.  Davis had a good summer, including a win at the Rocket Mortgage, so I say yes to him.  Harry Hall at $8,400 is a sneaky good pick.  Has made the cut three times at the Shriners and was T-8th in 2022, he won at the ISCO in July and been solid.  Ben Griffin at $8,200 is also a look at, has played well over the summer and was T-11th at Black Desert and T-9th at the American Express played on desert courses in Palm Springs.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Lots of good choices, first Matt Kuchar at $7,300 he was 2nd at the Shriners in 2008 and has been ok of late. Should watch Patton Kizzire at $7,300, he has played well in this event earlier finishing T-2nd in 2016 and T-4th in 2018.  We should watch Charley Hoffman at $7,300.  He hasn’t played well at the Shriners but has played well in the Desert, finishing 2nd in February at the Phoenix Open, and has been consistent over the summer.  Daniel Berger at $7,200 is worth a try because he is close to getting it right.  They still like Patrick Fishburn at $7,200, even with a miss-cut last week in Utah.  I think his game is right, and this is a course he can win at.  The same is true with Henrik Norlander at $7,000.  He played well last month and could find success in Vegas.

Who to watch for at the Shriners Children’s Open

Best Bets:

Taylor Pendrith

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T3 T44 T47

He was T-3rd last year, and after a terrible start to his year, in his last 15 starts, he only missed one cut, won the Byron Nelson, and had nine top-20 finishes.

Adam Hadwin

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
2 T10 T6 T34 T4 T27 CUT T10

His record at TPC Summerlin is good, he was 2nd last year, T-10th the previous year and T-6th in 2022. He hasn’t played great over the summer but loves playing in the desert and will do well for you this week.

Beau Hossler

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T7 T64 T34 T29 T23 T7

Has made six of six cuts in Vegas and was T-7th last year. He has played well in his last two starts, 2nd at Sanderson Farms and T-11th at Black Desert, he is a yes for me.

Best of the rest:

Matt McCarty

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
First time playing in this event

Is on a roll, having won three Korn Ferry events over the summer and last week. So keep up the support for him.

Cam Davis

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T7 T37 T27 T52 T28

Is a great pick, he has made five of five cuts at the Shriners and was T-7th last year. Davis had a good summer, including a win at the Rocket Mortgage, so I say yes to him.

Tom Hoge

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
CUT T4 T14 T24 CUT T7 T67 T67

He could surprise us.

Harry Hall

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T26 T15 T8

He is a sneaky good pick. Has made the cut three times at the Shriners and was T-8th in 2022, he won at the ISCO in July and been solid.

Solid contenders

Ben Griffin

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
CUT T60

He has played well over the summer and was T-11th at Black Desert and T-9th at the American Express played on desert courses in Palm Springs.

Patrick Fishburn

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
First time playing in this event

Even with a miss-cut last week in Utah. I think his game is right, and this is a course he can win at. Henrik Norlander

Patton Kizzire

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T46 T75 CUT T24 T42 T4 CUT T2

He has played well in this event, finishing T-2nd in 2016 and T-4th in 2018.

Long shots that could come through:

Charley Hoffman

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
CUT CUT T44 CUT T74 T18 CUT CUT CUT 4 CUT

He hasn’t played well at the Shriners but has played well in the Desert, finishing 2nd in February at the Phoenix Open, and has been consistent over the summer.

Daniel Berger

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T18 CUT

Is worth a try because he is close to getting it right.

Matt Kuchar

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T35 T34 T57

He was 2nd at the Shriners in 2008 and has been ok of late.

Not this week:

Tom Kim

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
Win Win

Yes, he has won two Shriners in a row, so you think maybe he knows something about this event. But he has been inconsistent, and I don’t see any way he can make it back to the winner’s circle for a three-peat.

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