BlogZozo Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This is a premier event that, unfortunately, really doesn’t work in the format.  The fall events are about grinding it out and first securing a players PGA Tour card for 2025 and then trying to get better status by climbing up the points list.  But this event goes against that premise. Sure, it will have the best field of any of the fall events, but the field is only 78 players, and 8 are Japanese players off the Japan Golf Tour points list.  Then 12 players are in the top-50 of the FedExCup points list (#2 Collin Morikawa, #3 Sahith Theegala, #4 Xander Schauffele, #7 Sungjae Im, #9 Hideki Matsuyama, #14 Justin Thomas, #29 Tom Hoge, #32 Si Woo Kim, #38 Will Zalatoris, #46 Max Homa, #48 Max Greyserman, and #50 Eric Cole), these players can’t improve their status for 2025.  So that leaves just 58 spots for those desperately trying to make the top 125 or get into the top 60 and earn a spot into the Sentry and Genesis events.  Then you have the fact that players have to travel from Las Vegas to Japan, in which you lose a day, which means you have very little time to learn the course and get over jet lag.  The bad news is that the PGA tour doesn’t seem to have a chartered plane like in past years, so it’s going to be a long travel for those who played in the Shriners. Those who made the cut will probably get to Japan on Tuesday night and will only have a day to prepare.  So we can see why  this event just doesn’t fit.

So forget about these guys for this week:

We all know how hard travel is, but those who made the cut at the Shriners are at a big disadvantage.  First the Shriners was a hard event with the wind delays, but not getting in till Tuesday night and only having a day to prepare put these players at a disadvantage:

Doug Ghim, Kurt Kitayama, Gary Woodland, Rico Hoey, K.H. Lee, J.J. Spaun, Matt Kuchar, Harry Hall, Chad Ramey, Mark Hubbard, Jhonattan Vegas, Nate Lashley, Taylor Moore, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Fishburn, Sam Stevens, Davis Riley, Ryan Fox, Beau Hossler, Andrew Putnam, Maverick McNealy, C.T. Pan, Nick Taylor, S.H. Kim, Luke List, Chris Gotterup, Adam Schenk, Ben Silverman, Zac Blair, and David Skinns.

So I can just about guarantee that the winner won’t come from these 29 players.

Now 14 players didn’t make the cut and were able to get to Japan a bit earlier, but still I don’t like these players chances:

Chandler Phillips, Andrew Novak, Charley Hoffman, Ben Griffin, Adam Svensson, Seamus Power, Justin Lower, Eric Cole, Nico Echavarria, Kevin Yu, Chan Kim, Sami Valimaki, Brendon Todd, and Tom Hoge.

One last thing…

There is no PGA Tour event next week; in fact, the only tour with a tournament is the LPGA. Good news for me: My daughter is getting married on November 2nd, which gives me a good excuse to lend a helping hand at the wedding. We will return with a preview of the event in Bermuda in two weeks.

Course information:

• Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
• 34 – 36 = 70
• 3,279 – 3,762 = 7,079

There are 5 par 3s, 10 par 4s and 3 par 5s

All 5 par 3s are under 191 yards

There are 3 par 4s under 400 yards, 5 par 4s over 480 yards

1 par 5 over 600 yards

This event started five years ago when it was played in Japan in October of 2019.  It became an instant success when Tiger Woods won it, the last event Woods has won.  Because of COVID-19, the event the next year was played outside of Los Angeles at Sherwood C.C. With the pandemic easing, it returned to Japan in October of 2022, and the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, the same club that Tiger Woods won, was again pressed into service.  That year it was won by Hideki Matsuyama, in 2022 it was won by Keegan Bradley and last year Colin Morikawa was the champion.

As for Accordia Golf, it’s not one of the best courses in Japan.  It also doesn’t have the reputation of being a brute of a course. Last year, 20 of the 78 players broke par, and the year before, 48 of the 78 broke par, and the course played to a 69.15 average for the par 70 layout.  Last year, with some tough weather conditions, the course played hard with a 70.508 scoring average, making it the 12th hardest course of 2023 and the hardest fall event.  The year before, the course lost some of the bites it had the year before.  When Keegan Bradley won the course, it was the 32nd hardest course on tour.  But the year before, when Hideki Matsuyama won it, the course had more bite to it as only 27 of the 78 broke par with the course playing to a 70.48 scoring average as it was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2022.

So the course does have some bite to it, a course that long hitters best win.  One of the reasons we didn’t do a key fantasy stat feature is that the course lacks history due to the course not having complete stats, so it has mixed returns to the point that we really couldn’t come to any true conclusion.  From last year’s stats, we see that the driving distance on the course is 287.5, which means that the average drive is short.  It ranked sixth on tour, and the ones in front of it were on courses that weather made the fairways soft with no role.  That makes sense; this course is perfectly manicured, and I can see a limited roll on the fairways.  As for accuracy, the course was the 23rd toughest on tour, meaning it’s midstream on players hitting the fairways.  Last year, winner Colin Morikawa hit 53 of 72 greens and ranked T-3rd.  In fairways hit, Morikawa hit 19 of 52 fairways and ranked T-67th.  Five of the top 11 were in the top ten in hitting fairways.  The year before, Keegan Bradley hit 56 of 72 greens, ranking T-3rd.  He hit 31 of the 52 fairways and ranked T-23rd.  Of those that finished in the top 11, only two were in the top ten so hitting fairways is not that important.  But a stat that is important is hitting greens, we saw that with Morikawa and Bradley.  The same thing happened in 2021 when Hideki Matsuyama won. He led the field, hitting 59 of 72 greens.  The same with the runner-ups, Cameron Tringale was 2nd in greens hit and Brandan Steele was T-7th.  Returning to the first Zozo won by Tiger Woods, he was T-3rd in Greens hit.  So it’s best to hit this link and look at the Greens in Regulation list to see who to pick this week.

As for any other stats, nothing sticks out.

About the course:

Accordia is outside of Tokyo and was picked because it can accommodate many spectators.  The original course opened in 1965, and a second 18 was opened soon after. Japan course architect Junya Fujita did both, and they have held several professional events, the biggest being the 1977 Japan Open.  The course being played this week is a composite of the 36 holes as it will play to a par 70 at 7,079 yards.  The first thing for everyone to realize is that this is a concise course under the standards of having the best players in the world play it.  With Zoysia fairways, the course will play to its true yardage, but the combination of many mature trees and most of the holes bending to one way or another takes the driver out of the hands of the long drivers.  The rough is thick, but since most shots will be between a six iron to pitching wedge, it’s nothing the pros can’t handle.  There are a lot of thick trees that line the fairways, and wayward drives will cause problems for those that are wild off the tee, but still, the length will be an advantage this week. One thing the players find strange, each hole has two greens. That’s because they have summer and winter greens in Japan.  So, like last year and the previous years, the PGA Tour will pick the green that is in the best shape and presents the best challenge.  The greens are extensive and easy to hit from the fairways, but they do have some undulations.  The players will find the greens a bit slow for what they are used to, which could be a significant advantage for poorer putters.  Bunkers are no problem and are there more for cosmetic looks, and any chip around the green will be easy.

Now the good news, the weather for the week will be near perfect, something that didn’t happen last year.  Thursday will hit a high of 77, dropping to 71 on Friday. Saturday and Sunday in the low 70s.  There will be some rain on Sunday, but the good news is there will be very little win.

Players we shouldn’t forget about

This week’s event is being played in Japan, which has a very capable tour in which 8 members of that Tour are playing this week.  We all know about Hideki Matsuyama, who won this event three years ago.  But a few others are playing that we don’t know much about but could also be in contention.  One is Kensei Hirata, who leads their money list and has won three times this year.  Last year, Hirata played the Zozo for the first time and finished T-6th.  Takumi Kanaya is second on the Japan Tour money list for 2024 and won twice.  In his last three Japan events, he was 2nd at the Vantelin Tokai, won the ACN Championship, and 4th at the Japan Open.  He has played in four Zozo’s, was T-31st last year, and his best finish was T-7th in 2021.  Now third on the Japan Money list is Ryo Ishikawa, won was T-4th last year at the Zozo.  On the Japan Golf Tour this year, won once at the Mizuno Open and was 2nd last week at the Japan Open.  Shugo Imahira is fourth on the Japan money list and won last week at the Japan Open.  He has played in all five Zozo’s, but his best finish is T-18th in 2021, so I will dismiss him for this week.

Another Japanese player to watch is Ryo Hisatsune, who plays full-time on the DP World Tour.  Ryo has played in the last three Zozo’s and was T-6th last year and T-12th in 2022.  Hisatsune has played in 24 PGA Tour events and was T-3rd at the Wyndham Championship so watch him.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Xander Schauffele – $11,500
• Collin Morikawa – $10,500
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,200
• Sahith Theegala – $10,000
• Sungjae Im – $9,800
• Justin Thomas – $9,500
• Min Woo Lee – $9,300
• Kurt Kitayama – $9,200
• Si Woo Kim – $9,100
• Will Zalatoris – $9,000

Before we start, we have to remind you that Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of us, so you have to get your picks in by Wednesday afternoon. The game will probably close on Wednesday night at 7:30. It is interesting that only one of the 29 players who made the cut at the Shriners (Kurt Kitayama) is among our high-priced players, so DraftKings must know something.

We have an event in which there won’t be a cut so we can have all six players generating points for 72 holes.  One thing I don’t like Xander Schauffele at $11,500, sure he won the Olympics in Japan in 2021 and was T-9th in 2022.  I just don’t like that he hasn’t played since the Presidents Cup, and I don’t think he is worth the money, even though he makes a lot of DraftKings points.  Now I could be wrong, since winning the British Open Schauffele hasn’t finish worst than 9th in his last four events.  Still, I am not high on Schauffele.  Collin Morikawa at $10,500 is a yes for me, like his roots in Japan and the fact that he was 2nd at the Tour Championship.  Think that he likes playing this event.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,200 is a yes for me, even though he finished T-51st last year and T-40th the year before.  He finished strong on the PGA Tour and I think his link to Japan makes him a player who will do well this week, also he is a winner at Accordia.  Sahith Theegala at $10,000 is a yes, has played well at Accordia, played well of late including 3rd at the Tour Championship and T-7th at Procore.  Sungjae Im at $9,800 is a good pick this week, has played well at Accordia and was 7th in his last start at the Tour Championship.  Justin Thomas at $9,500 is a no for me, hasn’t played in this event since it was played in California in 2020.  I don’t like him because he is weeks away from his first child, just think that is on his mind and he hasn’t played much.  Min Woo Lee at $9,300 may not be playing great, hasn’t had a top ten since July.  But does play well at Accordia, was T-6th last year.  Kurt Kitayama at $9,200 is a no, was T-9th at the Shriners but hasn’t played well at Accordia and just think he will be too tired to play well.  Si Woo Kim at $9,100 is a no, just hasn’t played well at Acccordia and hasn’t played much lately.  Will Zalatoris at $9,000 is still in flux over his game so he is a no.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I do like Beau Hossler at $8,900, was T-2nd last year and has played well of late, even played at Shriners and was T-23rd.  Tom Hoge at $8,400 has played well at Accordia and good this year, did miss the cut at Shriners.  Andrew Putnam at $7,900 was T-2nd at the Zozo in 2022, has played OK in 2024, shot 64 in final round at Shriners.  Rico Hoey at $7,600 is worth the price, has played well of late including T-3rd at the Shriners.  I think this is a good time to take Rickie Fowler at $7,600.  Price is right, came is coming around was T-23rd at Shriners and T-2nd at Zozo in 2022.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Zozo Championship

With all of the Japanese players, this section is ripe with many players worth the money.  Off the bat I like Patrick Fishburn at $7,500.  He is still playing well, was T-34td at Shriners. Our first Japanese player is Ryo Hisatsune at $7,300, he was T-6th last year at the Zozo and he has played well on PGA Tour in 2024.  Also, like Kensel Hirata at $7,000, he was T-6th last year and is the leading money winner on the Japan Golf Tour, winning three times this year.  Shugo Imahira at $6,900  is fourth on the Japan money list and won last week at the Japan Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Zozo Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

Of the field of 78 players, only a handful have seen the course.  20 of the 78 players will be a new adventure learning the course.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Just like last week, this course can be seriously attacked, and long hitters have a big advantage.  Now that doesn’t mean you can be wild, just off the fairway works, but if your way off line it will be a tough go because the course has a lot of trees down each fairway.
• We can see that the greens are easy to hit, but since many of them sit up if a green is missed by a lot it will be hard to get it up and down, so those that scramble well will have an advantage.
• Look for a birdie fest this week. Last year, the 78 players made 964 birdies on the course, which works out to 3.09 per round. Of the 11 who finished in the top ten, they averaged 4.41 birdies per round.
• Don’t disregard any Japanese players, a half dozen could be in the mix to content this week.
• One last thing: Look for players who have done well lately.