BlogWorld Wide Technology Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So, after a week off, the Tour moves from Japan to Cancun, Mexico. The big challenge of this week is that they will play by the ocean and have a lot of wind, making it complicated. We saw what wind can do last year, with gusts up to 30 mph. For the average player, El Cardonal at Diamante is a brutally tough course, but for the pros this week, if it’s calm, they will tear it apart.

For some, this week will be critical.

After this week, there are just two fall events, Bermuda and RSM Classic. The goal of a dozen in this week’s field is to finish the year in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. For those, it’s a ticket to unlimited golf. You get to play in the best events on the PGA Tour and get invites to play in the majors. So for Lucas Glover, who is 47th, he has to make sure to make the cut this week, next week in Bermuda, and then at the RSM.  As for those outside the top 50, Austin Eckroat is the closet at #59, followed by #65 Tom Hoke, #7 Harris English, #69 Ben Griffin, and #70 Maverick McNealy.

For those looking to keep their tour card, right now, Matt Wallace is the bubble boy at 125, and he isn’t playing.

Course information:

• El Cardonal at Diamante
• Los Cabos, Mexico
• 7,452 yards     Par 36-36–72

El Cardonal was built by Tiger Woods and opened in 2014. El Cardonal encourages swinging away off the tee with spacious driving widths of 60 yards wide that are countered with plenty of bunkers and death if you leave the short grass. The length and undulating greens will test the best of players while the ocean views distract players and will be the only natural defense for the course, ocean breezes.

Though there are some short par fours, you’ll rarely be tempted to hit anything but driver on the non-par threes given the width of the short grass and confidence it breeds. On a calm day, you almost can’t miss a fairway, but when the wind is up, things get tough quickly, and leaving the fairway often results in a lost ball. The difficulty in the course comes from the overall length combined with the pin placements. Some pins could prove to be diabolical, but enough real estate on the greens would also allow easy pins. The course is kept in good shape, and you’ll enjoy rolling your putts, taking note that balls tend to break towards the water.

The course has six par 4s over 450 yards, and since the course is at sea level, that yardage is big. There is only one short par 4s under 400 yards on both sides, the 351-yard third hole and the 344-yard tenth hole. Three of the par 3s are over 189 yards, and the shortest is the 11th at 189 yards. The par 5s will get destroyed this week. Three of them are between 554 and 585 yards. The Par 5 sixth hole is 601 yards.

Bunkering is the weakness of this course. There are only 48 of them, and they are straightforward, not deep, and not that challenging for PGA Tour players. It’s hard to believe there is only one water hazard on the right side of the third fairway, and you have to hit an inferior drive to find that hazard. We have said how wide the fairways are. You can land a 747 on them. But if you stray off them, don’t even look just play another ball. Off the fairway is instant death.

There will be two key stats to watch. Look for players that hit it close from 100 to 150 yards. Since the fairways are so wide, length off the tee is important to leave players with 125-yard shots into the green. If we look at the stat for the players who hit it the closest from 125 to 150 yards, those in the field that are leading that stat are (1) Tom Hoge, (3) Joel Dahmen, (5) Justin Lower, (T-8) Doug Ghim and (T-8) Chandler Phillips. Our second important stat is Putts Inside ten feet, and those in the top ten that are playing this week are (1) Taylor Montgomery, (2) Cameron Champ, (4) Vince Whaley, (T-5) Aaron Baddeley, and (8) Andrew Putnam.

Remember this: the player who hits his irons into the greens the closes and makes those putts inside ten feet will win.

Looking at long-range forecasts, the weather is supposed to be picture-perfect for the week.   Every day will be 80 and sunny. Now, for the players, winds will be very light in the 10 mph range, so look for really low scoring this week.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Max Greyserman – $10,400
• Cameron Young – $10,200
• Ben Griffin – $9,900
• Beau Hossler – $9,800
• Doug Ghim – $9,600
• Matti Schmid – $9,600
• Lucas Glover – $9,500
• Maverick McNealy – $9,300
• Harry Hall – $9,200
• Keith Mitchell – $9,100
• J.J. Spaun – $9,000

The field is so weak this week that it’s hard to find any marquee players to pick.  Max Greyserman at $10,400 is the top dog.  The reason for this is his great play since the U.S. Open, including runner-up finishes in the 3M Open, Wyndham Championship, and the Zozo Championship.  He is playing the W.W. Technology for the first time, and I feel he will be good at it.  Cameron Young at $10,200 is also a good pick, despite not playing well at the end of the year.  But we feel that since he last played at the BMW Championship he has worked on his game and Young is still looking for that first win, and it could come this week.  Ben Griffin at $9,900 is a toss-up, mostly because his price is too high.  He was T-23rd last year at El Cardonal, but I don’t like him on this course.  Beau Hossler at $9,800, was T-15th last year in this event, and we like how he has played in the fall, including a runner-up finish at the Sanderson Farms.  The same with Doug Ghim at $9,600, he also was T-15th last year and was runner-up at the Shriners Children’s.  Matti Schmid at $9,600 is a yes for me, playing well after finishing 5th at the black Desert and T-3rd at the Shriners.  The same with Lucas Glover at $9,500, in his last two starts was T-3rd at the Sanderson Farms and Black Desert Championship.  Maverick McNealy at $9,300 is a no, sorry has not played well since finishing T-3rd at the 3M Open.  Harry Hall at $9,200 is good since he has played well since winning the ISCO in July.  Keith Mitchell at $9,100 is a no for me, yes was T-3rd at the Sanderson Farms but missed cuts at Black Desert and Shriners.  J.J. Spaun at $9,000 has been pretty consistent since finishing T-10th at the Rocket Mortgage.  He was T-6th at the Zozo Championship.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Harris English at $8,900 is a good choice, he wasT-6th at the Black Desert and T-9th at the Shriners Children’s.  Matt Kuchar at $8,500 is a good choice, he was T-2nd at El Cardonal last year and has been consistent since the 3M Open.  Rico Hoey at $8,200, has played well since the Rocket Mortgage, and I can see he has the game to play well and win this week.  Same with Patrick Fishburn at $8,000, he has played well since the summer and was 3rd at the Barracuda and Procore.  I also like Charley Hoffman at $7,600, he plays well at courses on the water, was T-4th at Corales Puntacana.  Patton Kizzire at $7,600 is also one of the best picks for this week.  He was T-15th last year at El Cardonal and has played well in the fall, including winning the Procore Championship.  Justin Lower at $7,500 is also good, was T-23rd last year, I like that he was T-4th at the Corales Puntacana and T-3rd at the Mexico Open.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the World Wide Technology Championship

Like Henrik Norlander at $7,300, he was T-8th at the European Masters and T-8th at the Black Desert.  Justin Suh at $7,200 is also worth the money, he was 4th at El Cardonal last year.  Carson Young at $7,200 was 9th last year at El Cardonal and has been consistent in the fall.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the World Wide Technology Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

This event has been held since 2007, and even though a lot of younger players are participating, older, more experienced players have done well.  One historical oddity is that 12 of the 16 past winners were over 30, with all the winners averaging just a notch below 35.  But things changed in 2021 when 23-year-old Viktor Hovland won, only the third player in his 20s to win this championship.  He also won in 2022 at age 24, but this event still favors older players, like last year’s winner Erik Van Rooyen, who was 33 when he won. Four of the 16 champions are older than 40 years.  Age also means experience, and despite Hovland’s young age, he has a lot of experience.  So old may be something to look for this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Although the tournament has limited stats, we can see that if you hit it long and straight, can deal with the wind, hit lots of greens, and putt reasonably well, you can win here. Again, long-hitters will spend a lot of time at the beach instead of being in contention. Also, in looking at the past winners of this event, many of them were favorites, so look for the player you least expect to win.