BlogButterfield Bermuda Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Hard to believe that the fall portion of the PGA Tour is almost finished, we have this week and next.  Have to say I am a bit disappointed at how poor the fields have been for this week and next.  I thought last week was poor with just 19 top 100 players, but this week is even worse with 13 top ten and just one top 50 players.  Of the five past champions, we had three in the field this week: defending champion Camilo Villages, 2023 winner Seamus Power, and 2019 champion Brendon Todd.  Even worse, of the 45 events played on the PGA Tour in 2024, only five champions bothered to show up this week (Nico Echavarria (Zozo Champ.), Kevin Yu (Sanderson Farms), Jhonattan Vegas (3M Open), Peter Malnati (Valspar) and Nick Taylor (Phoenix)).

There are lots of reasons for the poor turnout.  First, it’s not only hard but also an expensive trip, as accommodations are very expensive in Bermuda.  Another important item is the weather.  People think of Bermuda as this tropical island, but it’s way up north, and this time of year is not very warm.  This week temperatures will vary between 67 and 71 degrees with not much sunny and rain on Sunday.  But the worst problem is the wind, blowing 23 mph for the four tournament days.  Last year, winds were between 15 and 20 mph daily, with winds reaching 31 mph on Sundays.  If there ever is something that professional golfers hate the most is wind.  Playing five or six straight days in windy conditions hurts players because they tend to make little swing tweaks that carry over to the weeks after.  Many have said that playing in a place of high winds is detrimental, so a lot of pros just don’t play in places of wind.  The last reason for good players not to show up is the course. Port Royal GC is a bit conceived to get it in the realm of a competitive course.  The course is not very good, so you don’t have many pros saying you must get back to Port Royal.

Players are in Bermuda for financial reasons and saving their PGA Tour card.

The first battle is for those between 51 and 60 in the FedExCup fall standings.  Here is a look at those fighting to get into positions 51 through 60:

• 51 – Mackenzie Hughes – He is playing this week, just about guaranteed to talk to 60 finish.
• 52 – Harris English – He is not playing, but just about guaranteed to talk to 60 finish.
• 53 – Maverick McNealy – He is playing this week, just about guaranteed to talk to 60 finish.
• 54 – Seamus Power – He is playing this week, and making cut will help his keep in the top 60
• 55 – Patrick Rodgers – He is playing this week, and has played in five of the six fall events helping stay in top 60
• 56 – Tom Kim – He is not playing but will be in the field at the RSM Classic
• 57 – Nick Taylor – Playing this week, a win at Phoenix gets him in all 2025 Signature events.
• 58 – Ben Griffin – Playing this week, needs to make the cut and a good finish to help him
• 59 – Justin Rose – Not playing this week, possibly playing next week.
• 60—Kevin Yu – He is playing this week. A win at Sanderson Farms will get him into all 2025 Signature events.
• 61 – Nico Echavarria – He is playing this week, started in the fall at 110, and has done well. Win at Zozo gets him in all 2025 Signature events.
• 62 – Lucas Glover – Playing this week, has two top-three finishes in the last three starts so needs one good finish to get into top 60
• 63 – Jake Knapp – Not playing this week, hasn’t played since St. Jude.  Win in Mexico gets him in all 2025 Signature events.
• 64 – Min Woo Lee – Not playing this week, possibly playing next week.
• 65 – Beau Hossler – Not playing this week, possibly playing next week.

Those looking to save his PGA Tour card for 2025:

• 120 – Alex Smalley –  Playing this week and needs to make cuts this week and next, but looks in good shape
• 121 – Joel Dahmen –  Playing this week and needs to make cuts this week and next, but looks in good shape
• 122 – Henrik Norlander –  Playing this week and needs to make cuts this week and next
• 123 – Vince Whaley –  Playing this week and needs to make cuts this week and next
• 124 – Daniel Berger –  Playing this week and needs to make cuts this week and next
• 125 – Hayden Springer –  Playing this week and needs to make cuts this week and next
• 126 – Dylan Wu –  Playing this week but has struggled in Fall was 119 before Procore and gone the wrong way
• 127 – S.H. Kim –  Playing this week but has struggled in Fall was 113 before Procore and gone the wrong way
• 128 – Wesley Bryan –  Playing this week, started the fall 156th and moved up thanks to T-6th last week.  Needs to play well next two weeks to move up further
• 129 – Kevin Tway – Playing this week, has struggled in last three starts, could use a top 25 this week
• 130 – Matt Wallace –  Playing this week in Dubai, exempt for 2025 with win in 2023 Corales Puntacana

Things you need to know about the Port Royal GC

It is located on the island of Bermuda, which is in the Atlantic Ocean 650 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The course is on the southwest part of the island, with most of the holes and views of the Atlantic.  It was originally supposed to be built in 1965, and they had some problems with one farmer who changed his mind on selling the property.  In 1967 all the land was bought, and Robert Trent Jones did the routing, and the course opened in 1970.

Course information:

• Port Royal GC
• Southampton, Bermuda
• 6,828 yards     Par 36-35–72

The course is government-run and one of the most popular public courses in the world. It was the host of the Bermuda Open. In 2009, the course received a $16 million renovation so that it could host the PGA Grand Slam of Golf. With the support of the Bermuda Government, Port Royal is now one of the world’s premier public golf courses, boasting TifEagle greens, a state-of-the-art irrigation system, and sweeping ocean views from nearly every hole.

Jones built the course to utilize the ocean views along with the par 3 16th hole that dangles over the Atlantic Ocean.  At 6,828 yards, it’s the shortest course on the PGA Tour for 2023 (The Travelers TPC River Highlands at 6,835 is 7 yards longer), but one that won’t appeal to long hitters.  The reason is that most of the holes have sharp doglegs, which require finesse off the tee.  The course only has three holes that don’t dogleg, so most players have to throttle back off the tee.  So off the bat, those who are short off the tee have an advantage.  In looking at the previous champions, Brian Gay, Brendon Todd, and last year’s champion Camilo Villegas are the shortest players on the PGA Tour.  The most significant protection Port Royal has is mother nature.  Sitting on a bluff over the Atlantic, it has severe wind coming off of the ocean.  On a perfect day, winds will be around 10 mph.  But on average, expect average winds between 17 and 20 mph, which gusts up to 30 miles per hour.  So look for a player that does well in windy conditions.  This is one of the reasons you don’t see more marquee names; most players tend to avoid courses with a history of high winds.  Many players have found themselves all messed up after playing a few rounds in the wind.  So look for those who excel in windy conditions, players who grew up in windy places like Texas, Florida, Australia, or Great Britain and Ireland. Those players who fit the bill are Lucas Glover, Alex Smalley, Aaron Baddeley, Andrew Putnam, Ryan Moore, and Russell Knox.  I also have to look at players with a lot of experience, this is not a course that will be tough on a young player to win, so I see the champion who has won before.  Most importantly, look for those that have played a lot in windy conditions.  Lastly, you want a player who can play well on par 4s, past winners Camilo Villegas was 13 under, Brendon Todd was 12 under on the par 4s, 2021 winner Brian Gay was 15 under, 2022 winner Lucas Herbert was 7 under, and 2023 winner Seamus Power was 11 under on the par 4s.

Still, the course will allow many birdies and eagles, so those with offense will do well.

Putting has been key to success at Port Royal in recent years. Only two winners have ranked outside the top five in putts per round (Villegas last year T-26th, Herbert in 2022,ranked T6 in that stat). The narrow, winding Port Royal layout offers plenty of wedge opportunities, generally leading to several mid-range birdie putts in the 10- to 15-foot range. Players know they’ll likely need to convert several in this range to have a chance on the back nine on Sunday.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Seamus Power – $10,500
• Mackenzie Hughes – $10,300
• Maverick McNealy – $9,900
• Ben Griffin – $9,700
• Doug Ghim – $9,600
• Patrick Rodgers – $9,500
• Lucas Glover – $9,400
• Justin Lower – $9,300
• Sam Stevens – $9,200
• Matti Schmid – $9,100
• Andrew Putnam – $9,000

This is another really hard event to peg.  There are lots of players at the top that you don’t want to pay over $9,000 for.  Making it harder, there is a 36-hole cut, so we have to try and pick six that will be around all four days.  I really feel that the most important thing is to make sure all your players stick around for the weekend.  Lot’s of former Korn Ferry Tour players in the field, along with a lot of no-name players, it’s time to pick those that will do well.  Remember the golden rule from past Bermuda Championships: short hitters do very well in this event, plus guys you least expect, like last year’s winner Camilo Villegas.

Easy to see why DraftKings picked Seamus Power at $10,500 as the top player.  The reason for that is his impressive record in this event with a win in 2022 and T-12th in 2021.  Power loves playing in the wind and, in his last six starts, has been in the top 11 three times.  Yes he is worth the money.  Mackenzie Hughes at $10,300 is not a great choice even though he was T-4th at Procore and T-8th at Sanderson Farms.  Has never played in Bermuda, I don’t think he is a wind player and don’t think his driver is suited for the course.  Also not a fan for Maverick McNealy at $9,900 for the week.  He was T-21st at Bermuda his last time he played in 2020.  Yes his game seems to be coming around, just don’t think the course suits him.  I like Ben Griffin at $9,700, he is short off the tee and pretty accurate, and was T-3rd in 2022 and T-37th last year.  His game is consistent and this is a good course for him. Doug Ghim at $9,600 is a no for me.  Yes, he fits the mold of those who have won here, but I just don’t think the course suits him.  Patrick Rodgers at $9,500 is a hard choice, his stats don’t seem to help him at Port Royal, but he was T-3rd last year and 4th the previous year so have to take him.  On paper, Lucas Glover at $9,400 is a very good pick even though he was T-45th last year and T-63rd the year before.  I like that in his last four starts was T-13th at Procore, T-3rd at Sanderson Farms and Black Desert and T-24th at WWTechnology.  Also like Justin Lower at $9,300, was T-20th last year, T-8th the year before.  He is a short hitter, and he played well last week in Mexico, finishing T-2nd, he was T-4th at Corales and T-3rd in the Mexico Open, all played close to the ocean in windy conditions.  I don’t like Sam Stevens at $9,200, hits it too long and hasn’t played well in the wind.  At odds on Matti Schmid at $9,100, he was 3rd in Bermuda last year and was 5th at Black Desert and T-3rd at Shriners.  But he missed the cut last week in Mexico, just think it’s best to pass on him.  Andrew Putnam at $9,000 could be a very good longshot, he is the shortest hitter on the PGA Tour in 2024, like that he is a good wind player.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money and will make the cut?:

Nico Echavarria at $8,600 could be a good pick, has played well of late and seems to be able to handle windy conditions.  Kevin Yu at $8,100 is a good pick, was T-30th last year and T-3rd the year before in Bermuda.  Won at Sanderson Farms, he has also played well in the wind finishing T-9th at Cognizant and T-4th at Myrtle Beach.  Rico Hoey at $7,900, playing for the first time in Bermuda but has played well in the fall including T-3rd at the Shriners.  Alex Smalley at $7,900 has a good record in Bermuda, with a T-30th last year, T-11th in 2022 and T-12th in 2021.  Was T-5th at the Sanderson Farms and T-6th on the water at Corales.  Greyson Sigg at $7,800 is also a good longshot, was T-11th in Bermuda in 2022 and T-22nd the year before that.  Was T-4th at Procore and T-9th at Corales.

*Some of the “bargains” this week?

There are lots of players that you must go through very carefully to find a combination of making lots of cuts and potential for doing well this week in very windy conditions. Off the bat, I like Chesson Hadley at $7,400, he was T-17th in 2022 and T-16th in 2020.  Hasn’t played great in the fall, but has made a lot of cuts.  David Lipsky at $7,300 was T-13th last year in Bermuda and in the fall was 2nd at Procore and T-6th last week in Mexico.  Like that he hits it straight and short off the tee.  Kevin Streelman at $7,300 is one of those dark horses to watch.  He has never played in Bermuda but his short and straight game could prove to work this week  Was T-3rd at Black Desert and T-24th in Mexico last week.  Ryan Moore at $7,200 could be the Camilo Villeges of this year.  Has struggled for the last couple of years, very short but straight off the tee.  Played for the first time in Bermuda last year and was T-5th.  Plays well in wind, he isn’t a player that many will take this week.  Peter Malnati at $6,700 has made the cut in all three of his Bermuda start, was T-7th in 2021.  You take Russell Knox at $6,500 because he has made five of five Bermuda cuts and was T-11th in 2019.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Bermuda Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• So, what vital stats are essential at Port Royal GC? This is the shortest course on the PGA Tour, and short hitters who keep it safe off the tee seem to do better than bombers. Because of the high winds that buffer the course, hitting greens is hard.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event.  It’s what you can call a throwaway event in which the top stars in golf take this week off.  So there are no real favorites because you know no real marquee players. Yes, the field only has one major champion playing (Lucas Glover), but after that, Seamus Power, Mackenzie Hughes, and Maverick McNealy are your key guys. But none of them will win because the winner will be the person you least expect.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.