BlogHero World Challenge Preview and Picks

The Buzz

So, 2024 is ending, and the last individual event is the Hero World Challenge. This event started in 1999 as another off-season event. Back then, it was called the Silly Season, with half a dozen unofficial events that were nothing more than a big money grab. Twenty-five years later, the Hero World Challenge is the last end-of-the-season event left, mainly because Tiger Woods associated himself with it. In 2016, the event moved to the Bahamas, one of the most exclusive resorts on the planet.

Things you need to know about the Albany Golf Club

The course is part of a luxury resort community on 600 oceanside acres in New Providence in The Bahamas. The course, designed by Ernie Els and opened in 2010, is unique because it sits on an oceanfront site with the best weather in the Bahamas. The course gets gentle breezes off the ocean to keep the temperature around 80. In its seventh year as host, the Ernie Els-designed Albany GC combines the best of links and desert features with windswept dunes and numerous scenic and strategically challenging water features. The club has one of the finest practice faculties, which features a 400-yard driving range and plenty of chipping and putting greens. The club also has an art performance center. So it only makes sense that many PGA Tour pros are members of Albany, including Els, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Trevor Immelman, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, and Tim Clark. On top of that, Woods, Scott, Els, and Rose have a home in Albany.

Course information:

• Albany Golf Club
• New Providence, The Bahamas
• 7,449 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course can stretch to 7,500, but this week will play at 7,449. It has five par 5s and 3s. Els took a flat site and dug out some water hazards, excavating sand from the deep-water channel, which became the resort’s marina. The excavated material became sand dunes that separated the fairways and made the course look like it’s been on Linkland for thousands of years. The course is challenging for those playing this week in Albany, but low scores are the norm. That’s because the course is in pristine shape. Along with wide-open fairways, greens that allow players to attack the pin are the reason for the low scores. One element that makes it more challenging is the wind, which blows every day but is mostly around 10 mph. When it blows, the course has some bite, but winds will be 7 mph on Thursday and Friday, and then it will be normal over the weekend at 13 to 15 mph this week.

The secret to playing well at Albany Golf Club

This course has had an incredible eight years. Intriguingly, the winners weren’t the marquee players, who were favorites. Each of the winners is a player you wouldn’t believe could win. A perfect example is the 2022 winner of the Hero, Viktor Hovland, and the previous winner, Henrik Stenson. They were not the favorites, but both played very well, beating the favorites. Last year, the winner, Scottie Scheffler, won by three shots over Sepp Straka.  This seemed to set Scheffler up for his perfect season.  The year before, Hovland was a shot ahead of Scottie Scheffler, while Stenson looked like a superstar, beating Jon Rahm by a shot. Unfortunately, both didn’t play well after that; Hovland did win the Dubai Desert two months later and was great in the Florida swing but played terribly after the Players. One of the other winners, Hideki Matsuyama, finished dead last year in 2016 and won it the following year. So the key is to look at those in the field and see who has played well of late. In 2018, Rickie Fowler won and has struggled since.  If you are looking for a possible dark horse, check out Justin Thomas, who has played in the last six Heroes, finishing in the top 12 in all six starts.  Last year, he was 3rd, the year before 5th, and the year before that T-5th, so he could be the player to beat this year.

Since this is an unofficial event, stats aren’t kept, so we have little intel on the keys to winning. In looking at seven of the eight champions at Albany, all of them are great ball strikers. The exception is 2018 winner Rickie Fowler, who was a great putter and won thanks to the short-stick. You can’t go wrong with a player high in greens in regulation, but look at those with Great Proximity to Hole numbers. Also, look at players who have been on the cusp of winning and haven’t achieved many wins. Look at players like Thomas, Cameron Young, and Sepp Straka. For this year, I have to say there is no true favorite for this week.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2024 season and going through the 2024 RSM Classic (we don’t include team events), a total of 46 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during each event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Here is a look at all 20 players in the field:

DraftKings tips

So, let’s make some picks for the Hero Challenge based on the above lists and pick six players who could be winners.

Remember, with a $50,000 cap that means we have to average $8,333 per player:

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,900
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,200
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,000
• Justin Thomas – $9,600
• Sam Burns – $9,300
• Russell Henley – $8,800
• Tom Kim – $8,400

There are only 20 players in a non-cut event, and this is a dream come true. Making the dream even better, only three of the 20 are over $10,000, while between $7,000 to $9,900 are only seven players. Those under $7,000 are players like Cameron Young, Brian Harman, Keegan Bradley, and Sepp Straka, who was runner-up last year.

Still, as we told you above, this event hasn’t seen many marquee winners, so maybe that is why DraftKings priced things. This is all good news, but the bad news is that you better pick winners. I will say that the person with the most points will have five of his players in the top six.

Off the bat is Scottie Scheffler at $11,900, and after his great year, it’s hard not to take him.  He has played in the event three times, winning last year and finishing runner-up the other times, so you almost have to pick him.  I feel that 90% of those playing DraftKings will have Scottie as one of their picks.  So if you are one of the 10% that doesn’t pick him and he plays poorly, that puts you in a perfect position.  But come on, playing against Scheffler and playing poorly is not a smart bet.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,200 should be a good pick since he is a great shotmaker.  But the reality on Patrick he is not a great wind player so he is a big no for me this week.  Ludvig Aberg at $10,000 is also not that great of a pick, he is playing this event for the first time and two weeks ago at the RSM was very rusty, so I won’t pick him this week.  My favorite (next to Scheffler) is Justin Thomas at $9,600.  Now Thomas is a new father. His daughter Molly was born on November 18, and he should be at the point where this week could be a sound-off week for him.  I feel that he has been working hard on his game and will be the surprise of 2025, which will start this week.  Sam Burns at $9,300 has not played since the Tour Championship.  But he is good on Bermuda, and in the wind, he could be a good pick.  The same with Russell Henley at $8,800, he is great on Bermuda and wind, but hasn’t played in this event so be careful with him.

*Players in that $6,000 to $8,4600 price range, which ones are worth the money and get you maximum points?

Off the bat, I see problems with Tom Kim at $8,400, Wyndham Clark at $8,000, and Sungjae Im at $7,800. They all have the same thing in common: they haven’t played well at Albany and haven’t played much in the last three months, so you want to avoid these three. Now I know that Jason Day, at $7,500, despite not playing well in his two tries on the Albany course, was T-8th at the Australian PGA Championship two weeks ago, so I think he is in a good place.  I like Sahith Theegala at $7,300. He hasn’t played in this event but does well in the wind, and I think he could be great this week.  Robert MacIntyre at $7,100 is another player to think of, he grew up in Scotland playing in wind and won the Scottish Open.  I think he will enjoy Albany in his last start was T-7th at the DP World Tour Championship.  Many may think that Cameron Young at $6,800 will be a good buy, he was 3rd two years ago in this event.  What bothers me is that he has withdrawn from two fall events, which makes me wonder if something is up with him, so I am avoiding him.  Akshay Bhatia at $6,700 is a great pick, yes playing for the first time at Albany but he won in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour three years ago and plays well in the wind, he was runner-up in Puerto Rico two years ago.  Two other good picks are Keegan Bradley at $6,900 and last year’s runner-up Sepp Straka at just $6,100.