BlogThe Sentry Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Happy New Year to all of you.

So, this week, we will start the new PGA Tour 2024 season.

Before discussing The Sentry, we have to talk about the elephant in the room, LIV golf, and what is happening. The frank answer? Not many people know what is happening. Yes, the PGA Tour is a bit of a mess for several reasons, but how many people take LIV golf seriously? LIV says they are trying to make a better tomorrow for golf, but that’s not the case, it’s all about how much money star players are making. We are all left to wonder how much some players make. My first feeling is that the only way they get any credible tour is to pay players a boatload of money.

Honestly, we have heard very little from the folks at LIV Golf.  Last year, they signed both Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton.  This year, the new players are Max (Chieh-po) Lee, Yubin Jang, and Frederik Kjettrup.  I have to say these players, as great as they have been on the Asian Tour and Kjetttrup off the PGA Tour University list will not move the needle.  The first event is just five weeks away in Saudi Arabia, and even with hiring a new CEO, there is no buzz.  The only thing we have heard is the tour is working hard on getting a TV entity to come aboard.  We keep on hearing that Fox is their target. We have to think they are a bit gun-shy as their Billion dollar bet on the USGA blew up, and since 2020, they have paid NBC around $250,000 just to get away from the contract.  So I can’t see them spending anything for LIV Golf.  Sure, they may go for a time-buy, just like LIV Golf did with the CW network the last couple of years.  The only other talk, and it’s very little, is TNT and TBS, with some early coverage going to Max.  But Warner has cut things to the bone, and if anything, they are finding the product going away, not coming.

The other problem for LIV Golf is competition from the TGI Golf League, which starts its programming next week on ESPN.  It’s a fresh new concept emphasizing team golf in a new format that will be played live in the evenings on ESPN.  I think this will be a big hit, especially among folks in their 20s, and after the league gets rolling, it will make LIV Golf obsolete.  I believe any negotiations between the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, and the Saudi Public Investment Fund are probably about finding a way for LIV golfers to return and also if the Saudis can get a piece of the Strategic Sports Group that has invested $1.5 billion to the newly form PGA Tour Enterprises.  As I have said before I have no credible information and nothing has been written on this, I am just reading the tealeaves and reporting some of the thoughts of those looking to write about this.  But as I said before, I think LIV Golf is running on fumes, and the end is very near.

Off to Maui

Still, one of the best perks on the PGA Tour for playing well the previous year is starting the year off in Maui. For the average person, they would kill just to get to Hawaii. The winners in 2024 and those in the top 50 will get to go to Hawaii and spend a week at the Ritz Carlton on one of the prettiest beaches in the world. Food couldn’t be any better; the scenery is the best, and the Kapalua beaches are the best for those who like water sports, from surfing to snorkeling. Yes, this is arduous work, and to think, there is no hustle or bustle this week, play lousy, finish last, and you’ll still make $50,000 grand. But if you play well and win, it’s a $3.6 million payday. What a life.

Player news

Of course, the whole golfing world knows what happened to Scottie Scheffler.  What a tough way to end a great year! Scottie sustained a puncture wound to the palm of his right hand from a broken glass, and surgery was required to remove small glass fragments.  Despite his manager Blake Smith saying Scottie will be back to 100% in three or four weeks, many wonder if this is feasible.  Scottie is still on the list to play in the American Express in three weeks, but that may not be possible.  The injury was to the palm of his right hand, and frankly, I think it may take more than a few weeks to properly heal and allow him to regain the form that he showed us last month in winning the Hero Challenge in the Bahamas.  I think a reasonable goal is for Scottie to return to Genesis and get up to speed for the Florida swing.

What a mess Viktor Hovland is

Did you think that Viktor Hovland was a mess over the summer?  Things aren’t getting any better, first he got into the mess when he fired his swing coach Joe Mayo.  Around the U.S. Open, they both started working again, and Hovland’s game improved.  His last start was four months ago at the Tour Championship.  According to Brentley Romine of NBCSports.com, Hovland also worked with coaches Grant Waite and Dana Dahlquist this year, but it didn’t seem to work.  Currently, he is sending videos to “another coach” in consulting.  It was also revealed that Hovland is dealing with calcium buildup around the cartilage in his right pinky, which he injured in 2019.  On top of these problems, Norsk Golf reported that Hovland spent the holidays home in Norway.  He flew straight through from Norway to Maui for the Sentry and was so jet lagged he fell asleep in his room with his clothes on and the light on.  He awoke to turn off the lights and stubbed his toe on the corner of the bed.  He went to the emergency room, and X-rays showed a fracture on his right pinky toe.  He was told to take up to six weeks off, but he hit some balls and says the pain is subsiding and will decide on Thursday if he will play.  So we all know who not to bet on this week and in future weeks as he deals with all of his problems.

Another person struggling is Max Homa who has a short-term solution for this week

2024 was not a great year for Max Homa.  He finished 46 in the FedExCup race, his worst finish since 2020.  Not only didn’t he win for the first time since 2020, but he also went from 13 top tens in 2023 to just 3 in 2024.  Homa’s regular caddie, Joe Greiner, couldn’t caddie at the Sentry, and for the week, Homa is “borrowing” Jordan Spieth’s longtime caddie, Michael Greller.  According to Homa, the move is only temporary as Greller will return to Spieth when he makes his 2025 debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.  Spieth had surgery on his wrist just after the FedEx St. Jude Championship in August. He has said that everything is progressing and that he is looking forward to playing without pain.

Course information:

The Plantation course was designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw and opened in May of 1991. Between 1992 and 1997, the course was the venue of the Lincoln-Mercury Kapalua Open, with the Mercedes Championships moving to the Plantation course in 1999. The average green size at Kapalua is 8,700 square feet, meaning it has some of the largest greens on Tour. This will place a premium on putting, especially on long putts. The course has 95 bunkers and no water hazards, with vast fairways that a 747 can land on. The event has been played on this course since 1999, and looking at the champions, there are as many short hitters in their winners’ roles as long hitters. Mother nature makes the course difficult; without an abundance of trees, the course is entirely open to the elements. Along with the Maui sunshine, winds affect the course daily, sometimes as a gentle breeze, but on most days, wimping from off the Ocean up the hillside, winds of 15 mph are the norm. When the winds go higher, sometimes in the 40 mph range, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is challenging to maneuver around.

Last year, the course average was 68.36 (remember it’s a par 73), so the course played to an average score of just over 4 and a half shots under par, making it the easiest of the 50 courses on the PGA Tour in 2024.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Plantation Course at Kapalua:

This is based on the most important stats for the Plantation Course at Kapalua, data from last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, and data from all the players in the field with stats from the 2024 season.
It is essential to know that this course looks tough on TV, but it’s one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. Last year, the field’s scoring average was 68.36, so with par being 73, the average score was 3 and a third shot under par, making it the easiest of the 50 courses on the PGA Tour in 2024.
Here is a look at the scoring average of the Sentry for the last few years:
2023 – Average was 68.92, was easiest of the 58 courses that year
2022 – Average was 68.22, was easiest of the 50 courses that year
2021 – Average was 69.32, was easiest of the 51 courses that year
2020 – Average was 72.23, was 20th hardest of 41 courses that year
2019 – Average was 70.92, was 44th hardest of 49 courses that year
Many will wonder why there was a difference of almost four shots between 2022 and 2020.

First, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most unique courses for holding a PGA Tour event. The course was carved out of the side of a mountain, so the elements play an essential role. The architects Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore put a lot of thought into routing the holes and built the course with trade winds in mind. The trade wind blows toward the ocean, meaning the wind goes in the same direction as the slope and the grain. The ball then rolls for miles, or it seems that way. Each year, the Plantation course has its share of 400-yard drives. With Kona winds, it blows up the hill and into the grain, which reduces the role. Last year, the course had six drives of 400 yards or longer.
Last year, 340 drives of 400 yards or longer were on the PGA Tour. This shows how it’s become the norm to hit 400+ drives at the Plantation course, and 236 of those drives came at Kapalua. Of the 236, 42 drives of 425 yards and longer were played at Kapalua, with Max Homa hitting one 477 yards in the third round on the 7th hole.
In 2023, the course had 90 drives of 400 yards or longer, with 8 drives over 427 yards, the longest being Luke List’s 459 yards on the 7th hole in the third round.
In both 2022 and 2021, the Plantation Course at Kapalua had 8 drives of 400 yards and longer.
In 2000, there were only five; the difference in 2000 was that the week had Kona winds while the other years had trade winds.
So, the course is at the mercy of the weather conditions, mainly the degree of wind and the direction, but long drives are becoming the norm.
The Plantation Course is a resort course not geared to be super tough. It is the only par 73 course on the PGA Tour, and that is because it has four par 5s but only three par 3s. The main reason the course is accessible is the fairways; there is no way you can’t hit the fairways at Kapalua; a 777 can land on them.
Last year, the course ranked 21st out of 50 courses in driving accuracy, with 58.59% of drives in the fairway. Looking at previous years, you can see that hitting fairways was easier. The big reason for that is the accessibility of the event. Last year, with the event becoming a signature, the field expanded to 59 players. In 2023, the field was 39, while in 2020, only 34 players were in the field, so that accounts for the lower driving accuracy numbers.
Here is the Driving Accuracy of the Sentry for the last few years:
2023 – Driving Accuracy was 62.75%, ranking 40th out of the 58 courses for the year
2022 – Driving Accuracy was 73.82%, ranking 49th out of the 50 courses for the year
2021 – Driving Accuracy was 79.01%, ranking 51st out of the 51 courses for the year
2020 – Driving Accuracy was 80.93%, ranking 41st out of the 41 courses for the year
2019 – Driving Accuracy was 76.62%, ranking 48th out of the 49 courses for the year

One thing about the course is that since the fairways are firm and many of them go downhill, you may think the average drive would be enormous. It is. Last year, the average drive for every drive was 313.9 yards and ranked 40th out of 41 courses.
In 2023, the average drive was 307.3 yards, making it the 41st hardest course out of 41 courses on the PGA Tour.
In 2022, the average drive was 304.3 yards, making it the 34th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
Many say that the course is for bombers, but it isn’t. Yes, long hitters have a significant advantage; last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, finished T-71st on the PGA Tour in driving distance for 2024 and 16th at Kapalua with a 318.1 average. Last year, Sahith Theegala was runner-up but finished 7th (out of 59 players) at Kapalua, averaging 321.2 yards.
Here is a look at the last five champions of the Sentry and how they did in driving distance:
2023 – Jon Rahm ranked 2nd, average drive 322.9 yards. Was T-35th in Driving Accuracy, hitting 51.67% of the fairways. The same year, Collin Morikawa was runner-up but finished 26th (out of 38 players) at Kapalua, averaging 304.2 yards.
2022 – Cameron Smith ranked 4th, average drive 313.1 yards. Was T-14th in Driving Accuracy, hitting 75.0% of the fairways.
2021 – *Harris English ranked 25th, average drive 277.1 yards. Was T-14th in Driving Accuracy, hitting 83.3% of the fairways.
2020 – Justin Thomas ranked 11th, average drive 271.5 yards. Was T-19th in Driving Accuracy, hitting 78.3% of the fairways.
2019 – Xander Schauffele ranked 14th, average drive 280.4 yards. Was T-15th in Driving Accuracy, hitting 78.3% of the fairways.
*English was the second shortest winner in the 24-year history (the shortest was Jim Fury, 44.4% in 2001).

In other years, short hitters have won. Look at some of the champions in the last few years.
*Jordan Spieth was the 51st longest hitter on tour in 2016.
*Even better yet, Zach Johnson won in 2014, Steve Stricker in 2012, and Jonathan Byrd in 2011 were three of the shortest hitters in PGA Tour history.
*Even guys like Geoff Ogilvy (who won twice) and Daniel Chopra were very average on tour in driving distance.
So, the myth that this course is for bombers is incorrect, except for one little fact. Being on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the Pailolo Channel, the Plantation course tends to get hit by high winds. When that happens, especially if the winds are out of the north (Kona), it helps short hitters. The same thing happens when it’s dry, firm, and fast; it allows the short hitters.
A strange thing could happen this week. Winds will come out of the northeast and are predicted to be very low, with the average being between 9 and 12 mph. There has been very little rain over the last week, and with no rain this week, the course will be dry, firm, and very fast, so look for this to be a massive help for shorter hitters.

After play in 2019, the Plantation Course was closed and had an intensive, $11 million renovation project. The course was re-grassed and reshaped to make it play firmer and faster, which it did, making it a bit harder. They also redid the greens, removing some slope and undulations, making the course easier.

The one undisputed fact that many still don’t understand about the winners at Kapalua that will probably continue, in most cases, is that the best putter has been the victor. Here is a stat that will blow your mind: of the Kapalua winners since 1999, the highest any of them have ranked in putts per round was 4th until 2020.
Justin Thomas ranked T-11th, which is the highest of any winner. Still, if you looked at the playoff that year, Patrick Reed was in it and ranked 1st in putts per round. Last year, Chris Kirk also finished 11th in Strokes Gained putting.
In 2021, Harris English ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in putts per round, so you can see that putting is the key to winning at Kapalua. If you’re a poor putter, you have just about no chance of winning.
2022 was won by Cameron Smith, who is considered one of the best putters in the game. For the week, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and, from 4 to 8 feet, was ranked 2nd, making 16 of 18 putts.
In 2023, Jon Rahm was 1st in putts per round and 1st in Strokes Gained Putting. In putts from 10 to 15 feet, he was 2nd, making 5 of 8 tries. In putts from 15 to 20 feet, he was 5th, making 3 of 10 attempts. In putts from 20 to 25 feet, he was 3rd, making 2 of 5 putts, and from inside ten feet, he ranked 15th, completing 61 of 68 tries. More importantly, he was 1st in making 31 one-putts; in 3 putts, he only had one for the week.
Last year, Chris Kirk was 11th in Strokes Gained Putting in his victory. He was 1st in total putting and 1st in putts per round. Kirk didn’t have a single three-putt and had 35 one-putts, which ranked T-2nd. In putting inside ten feet, Kirk made 64 of 66 putts and ranked 1st again, showing that putting is the key to winning the Sentry.

Now, Thomas didn’t put that great in his win in 2020. In putts inside 10 feet, he ranked 29th (out of 34 players in the field), making 66 of 78 putts. But what Thomas did right was hitting greens. He ranked 3rd, hitting 56 of 72. They all ranked in the top ten of the last seven winners, so hitting greens is essential. Another critical item inputting is the lack of three-putts.
Last year, Chris Kirk didn’t have a three-putt.
In 2023, Jon Rahm only three-putted once.
In 2022, Cameron Smith had only one three-putt
In 2021, Harris English didn’t have a single three-putt
In 2020, Justin Thomas had one three-putt over the 72 holes, which ranked T-2nd
In 2019, Xander Schauffele had 1 in the first round
In 2018, Dustin Johnson didn’t have a single three-putt
In 2017, Justin Thomas had just 2 three-putts

Also, all of the winners were good at scrambling except for the four champions between 2020 and 2023.
Last year, Chris Kirk was near perfect in scrambling, getting it up and down 11 of the 12 greens he missed, which ranked first.
In 2023, Jon Rahm ranked T-13th in scrambling
In 2022, Cameron Smith ranked T-17th in scrambling
In 2021, Harris English ranked T-17th in scrambling
In 2020, Kevin Thomas ranked 32nd as he only got it up and down in 7 of the 16 greens missed
In 2019, Xander Schauffele was 8th
In 2018, Dustin Johnson was 6th
In 2017, Justin Thomas was 12th in scrambling
In 2016, Jordan Spieth was 3rd
In 2015, winner Patrick Reed was 2nd
The same goes for 2014 winner Zach Johnson.
One thing to remember about Thomas’s victory in 2020: it wasn’t pleasant. He made bogeys on 16 and 18 to force the playoff but made up when he went birdie, par, birdie in the playoff. The year before Xander Schauffele’s victory was historic as he shot 62, the lowest round shot by a champion at Kapalua. But how about Jon Rahm’s win in 2023? After entering the final round seven shots back, Rahm equaled the most significant come-from-behind victory at the Sentry. Things looked even grimmer as he bogeyed the first hole while 3rd round leader Collin Morikawa made birdie to lead by nine over Rahm. The Spaniard birdied four of the next five holes he played, and with birdies at 9, 13, and 14, he was only three back. Morikawa made his first bogey of the week at 14, and minutes later, Rahm made an 11-footer for eagle as they were tied. Morikawa’s problems continued with bogeys at 15 and 16. When Rahm birdied 18, he won by two. Rahm one-putted six of his final seven holes.
Last year, Chris Kirk was spectacular in his win. He went 72 holes, dropping just one shot with a bogey on the 3rd hole in the third round. Kirk was 16 under on the par 4s and 11 under on the par 5s
So the key to remember about this week’s event in Maui is to look for those who putt well and are good scramblers. Sure, if they hit it long, it’s an added plus, but putting rules this week. Also, remember the course will play firm and fast, so look for those short hitters.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Kapalua:

*Strokes Gained Putting: The greens average 8,722 square feet at Kapalua, making them above average on the PGA Tour. So, with shots ending up far from the hole, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. In putting stats last year, the Plantation Course was 16th in One-putt percentage and 27th in 3-putt avoidance. Overall, putting stats ranked it as the 8th hardest to putt in 2023, as one putt is at a premium, and the course was the 8th hardest in that stat. Three putts are expected, as the course ranked 38th in 3-putt avoidance last year. Last year, Jon Rahm was 1st in one-putts (31) and T-8th in 3-putt avoidance (only 1). In 2022, Cameron Smith was 1st in one-putts and T-13th in 3-putt avoidance.

*Proximity to Hole: In greens in regulation, 82.16% were hit last year, making it the easiest course to hit greens on the PGA Tour. In Proximity to hole, players tended to have a tough time getting it close to the hole; last year, they averaged 38 feet, 7 inches, which was 14th on the course in 2024. As for winner Kirk, he averaged 37 feet, 6 inches and ranked 22nd So you have to not only get on the green, but Proximity to hole is important

*Par Breakers: The Plantation Course has always been a pushover for the best players in the world. The field was the easiest in birdie average and easiest in Par Breakers last year. Kirk made 30 birdies, T-3rd for best of anyone in the field.

*Scrambling: With big greens, it’s nearly impossible to miss them; still, if you do miss a green, you have to get it up and down. Last year, the course ranked 37th on tour in scrambling, but that was misleading because you had better get it up and down for those who win. Last year, Kirk missed 12 greens but got it up and down 11 times. In 2023, Rahm missed 11 greens and got it up and down 7 times (63.64%) to rank T-13th, again showing how this stat has been significant in past years.

59 of the 60 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Playing in events on the Ocean

This is a stat that more and more folks should be interested in. In the last few years, 15 of the 50 events played are on the Pacific, Atlantic, or Caribbean seas. Here is a look at some of the players who have done well on courses by water since the start of 2020.

Viktor Hovland could be the King in Ocean events. Three of his PGA Tour wins have come by the sea at Mayakoba and Puerto Rico. He also has won two Hero World Challenges in Bermuda. In 30 starts since 2020 by the sea, he has nine top-ten finishes. Still, we don’t expect anything from Hovland, and his big accomplishment is playing 72 holes.

Justin Thomas has played in 25 ocean events. He won the 2017 and 2020 Sentry along with the 2021 Players and has 12 top-ten finishes.

Others who have played well in Ocean events include Collin Morikawa, Xander Scheuffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Max Homa.

DraftKings tips

Historical totals

Of the 60 in the field, 41 have played at least once in the Sentry.  Here are the players with the most under-par rounds at Sentry since 2010:

• 14 by Adam Scott
• 11 by Justin Thomas
• 10 by Billy Horschel
• 9 by Chris Kirk
• 9 by Keegan Bradley
• 8 by Patrick Cantlay
• 8 by Sungjae Im

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2024 season and going through the 2024 Hero Challenge (we don’t include team events), a total of 47 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during each event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Here is a look at all 60 players in the field:

Here is a look at the players who have played the best at the Sentry based on their DraftKing points going back to 2020.

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys who will make a lot of points this week. This chart shows that the best player for the money is Justin Thomas, who is $9,700. He has won twice at the Sentry and had a good 2024, averaging 73.7 points per start. He played well last month at the Hero, finishing third. He is ready to break out of his slump, and I expect him to shine in 2024.

You must also like Sungjae Im, who cost $9,500 and has played well at the Sentry.

Patrick Cantlay, at $9,900, also plays well and averages 75.5 DraftKings points per event.

When it comes to value picks, Aaron Rai is the bargain of the bunch at $6,700, averaging 72.2 points per round. He is so cheap because he has never played in this event, which is something to think about.

One person to wonder about is Xander Schauffele, who was T-2nd in his first Sentry start but has progressed downward, finishing T-10th last year.

More DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Xander Schauffele – $11,000
• Collin Morikawa – $10,100
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,900
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,800
• Justin Thomas – $9,700
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,600
• Sungjae Im – $9,500
• Viktor Hovland – $9,300
• Tony Finau – $9,100
• Sam Burns – $9,000

A happy New Year to you and great picking in DraftKings for the year.

In looking at the prices for The Sentry, the first one is Xander Schauffele at $11,000. After finishing T-2nd at his first start in 2020, he was T-5th the next year and went the other way, finishing T-10th last year.  He had a great summer but has only played once since the Tour Championship, finishing T-41st at the Zozo Championship.  A great player I just think he may have too much rust that he needs to chisel off his game.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,900 has been up and down at the Sentry, he has played solidly since the U.S. Open last year.  Collin Morikawa, at $10,100, is a sensible pick and has played well at the Sentry, finishing in the top seven in his last five Sentry starts.  Ludvig Aberg at $9,800 is priced too high.  He had a bit of a sophomore slump and is still getting surgery on his left knee in the first part of September.  I am not touching him this week.  Justin Thomas at $9,700 is my favorite for this week, everything is pointing to a great week and winning for the third time at Kapalua.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,600 is a good bet for this week despite his poor play at the Sentry in his last four starts.  But he was T-3rd in 2015, 2nd in 2017, and T-4th in 2018, so if he gets hot with the putter, he is an excellent choice for this week.  I also like Sungjae Im at $9,500.  He played well at the Sentry, and in 2024, the only problem is that he will give you a fourth or fifth-place finish, but he can’t seem to win or finish runner-up.  Viktor Hovland at $9,300 is a big no because we wrote about him in our player section.  Also a big no for Tony Finau at $9,100, he is still coming off knee surgery on October 15th and just will not be 100%.  Sam Burns at $9,000 is a no for me because of his poor play at the Sentry.  It’s kind of disappointing, he plays well on Bermuda and in wind, but can’t seem to master this event, probably because of his putting.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I see Akshay Bhatia at $8,900 to have a great week and be fighting for the win on Sunday.  Course suits his game, he is a good putter and scrambling around the greens, he also can hit it long which are all traits to suit him at the Sentry.  The same with Sahith Theegala at $8,600, he is a good putter who came very close to winning last year and can do it this year.  Watch Robert MacIntyre, who is $8,200.  He is making his Sentry debut, so he probably won’t win, but he has the game to do well on this course so close to the ocean.  Adam Scott at $8,100, is a person to watch.  He has had some good finishes at the Sentry, including a runner-up finish in 2007.  Jason Day at $7,600 is a very good pick.  Consider this: in six starts at Kapalua has four top-ten finishes, including a T-3rd in 2015.  Maverick McNealy at $7,500, is also a good pick.  He is playing the Sentry for the first time but is playing well and is a good putter; watch him.

*So, are there any “Bargains” out there?

Of the field of 60, 19 of the players have never played in the Sentry. So that will mean it will be hard to dig up a bargain or two this week when you consider that 13 of the 19 are priced below $7,500. I like Brian Harman at $7,400; he is an excellent putter who could strike any time. He is not the longest of drivers, so firm conditions will benefit him. He has played in this event twice and was T-5th last year. Defending champion Chris Kirk is priced at $7,000 probably because he hasn’t played well since winning at the Sentry last year.  A rookie I like is Aaron Rai at $6,700, I don’t think he will let you down.  The same with Cam Davis at $6,500, he should be good when the wind blows at the Sentry.  One last person to think about is Peter Malnati at $6,000.  One of the best putters on tour, he played once at Kapalua and was T-8th in 2016.  Look for him to be the big surprise.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sentry Tournament of Champions:

The key stat for the winner:

• The Plantation Course is not a driving course. A good driver has no advantage here, so players must rear back and hit it as far as possible. The fairways are big enough to land a 747 on them, and for those that miss the fairway, the rough terrain is of no worries, so this is one of the rare events that driving means nothing. 2013 was a perfect example. Winner Dustin Johnson missed the most fairways of anyone in the field (37 of the 60 attempts), but on the other end of the spectrum, Johnson’s average drive of 279.5 yards was the second longest. 2017 winner Justin Thomas was T-17th in driving accuracy, hitting 44 of 60 fairways, while he was 3rd in driving distance for the week at 301.6 yards per drive. Thomas in 2020 was T-19th, hitting 47 of 60 fairways, but was 3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 56 of 72 and ranking 3rd. 2021’s winner, Harris English, was T-14th, hitting 50 of 60 fairways, but was T-3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 62 of the 72.  2022 winner Cameron Smith was T-14th, hitting 45 of 60 fairways, but was T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 62 of 72. In 2023, Jon Rahm won; he was T35th, hitting 31 of 60 fairways, but was T-7th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 61 of 72.  Last year, Chris Kirk won, hitting 35 of 60 fairways, ranking T-30th and T-19th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 60 of 72 greens.
• The motto in this is that hitting it long does not have that much of an advantage.
• Again, in some cases, stats are misleading because even though you can hit it long, the course is one where everyone hits all the greens, so everyone is in the same boat.
• So, along with players hitting it as far as they can, look for players hitting lots of greens. Since they are so large, averaging 8,700 square feet, you can see that players miss only three greens per round. So, hitting lots of greens is a misnomer. The average proximity to the hole last year was 38 feet 7 inches, which made the pins hard to get close, so you can see that lag putting is crucial.
• So, two key stats stand out as necessary. The first approach is putt performance, which gauges who lags putts the closest to the hole. Last year, those playing at Kapalua averaged getting their first putt within 2 feet, 5 inches away. The other key stat is birdie or better conversion per greens hit; Kapalua was 47th as players birdied 40.20% of the greens they hit, so making birdies is easy and necessary.
• Here are some more key stats to look for this week:
• Still, the king of stats is putting. With big greens, putting is essential.
• Look at last year’s winner, Chris Kirk. He was T-19th in hitting greens, averaging 37 feet, 6 inches from the hole that ranked 22nd. But he won the tournament with his putter as he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting.
• Last but not least, we need to assess the true changes made to the course. These changes are often just cosmetic, but in the case of these changes after the 2019 tournament, we won’t see them on TV, but the players have experienced them. The players talked about how careful you had to be when driving the ball. Now, the ball can roll into danger because there is more roll in the fairway. What could be misleading this year is the winds; they will be low, and with the changes to the course, many will say it will be interesting to see if more of the shorter hitters, the Sungjae Im’s, the Denny McCarthy’s, the Brian Harman’s and the Russell Henley’s of the world will have a better chance and will content this week on a long course.