Sony Open in Hawaii Key Fantasy Stats

Sony Open in Hawaii

January 9th – 12th, 2025

Waialae C.C.

Honolulu, HI

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,044

Purse: $8.7 million

with $1,566.000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Grayson Murray

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and data from all the players in the field with rankings from 2024 stats.
The field’s scoring average at Waialae last year was 68.82, making it almost a shot under par and the 27th hardest course of the 50 on Tour.

Here is a look at the scoring average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – Average was 69.19, was the 36th hardest of the 58 courses that year
2022 – Average was 68.00, was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
2021 – Average was 67.97, it was the 45th hardest of the 51 courses that year
2020 – Average was 70.51, was 9th hardest of 41 courses that year
2019 – Average was 68.92, was 32nd hardest of 49 courses that year
Many will wonder why there was a difference of almost two and a half shots between 2020 and 2021.

In 2021, the scoring average was 67.97, making it play just over two shots under par and the 45th hardest course on Tour (7th easiest). The reason for such an easy scoring average in the last three years was the perfect weather conditions with limited winds. It was a significant difference over 2020 when the field’s scoring average at Waialae was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event, with the most significant change being part of the course going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course has played under par every year until 2020. The reason for this is wind; in 2020, they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday and 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This year will be a different story, with warm skies but winds between 13 mph and going up to 14 mph on Friday, 16 mph on Saturday and 17 mph on Sunday.

As we saw at Kapalua last week, weather plays an important factor in scoring, and with light winds and firm, fast conditions, the scores were low on Sunday. So, looking at the forecast, it seems perfect for the players on Thursday, but scoring will be complicated from every day to Sunday. That brings in a different realm of players; those with explosive offensive skills will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course, but it’s still a layup for the best players in the world with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shoot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. The fairways are different than those in Kapalua, which are wide and welcoming. At Waialae, the fairways are tight, making for a tough go. Last year, the course ranked 15th in driving accuracy as the players hit 56.84% of the fairways. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murray, was ok off the tee as he hit 67.86% (38 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-11th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kim ranked 1st.

Here is a look at the driving average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – Driving Accuracy was 54.56%, and was the 18th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Si Woo Kim was ok off the tee as he hit 62.50% (35 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kim ranked 1st.
2022 – Driving Accuracy was 61.56%, and was the 29th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama was ok off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Matsuyama ranked 5th.
2021 – Driving Accuracy was 57.64%, and was the 19th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na was not straight off the tee as he hit 55.46% (31 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-50th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Na ranked 2nd.
2020 – Driving Accuracy was 65.53%, and was 32nd hardest of 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith was better off the tee as he hit 64.29% (36 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-41st. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Smith ranked 30th.
2019 – Driving Accuracy was 56.27%, and was 13th hardest of 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar was great off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-4th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kuchar ranked 3rd.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the excellent weather.

Our second stat is Greens in Regulation. In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 17 of the 23 have been in the top 12, while nine of the 22 have been in the top three.
Last year, Waialae ranked 27th out of 47 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 69.06% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murry, hit 57 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked T-2nd.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – Greens in Regulation was 71.64%, and was the 43rd hardest of the 58 courses that year
Winner Si Woo Kim hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked T-2nd.
2022 – Greens in Regulation was 72.61%, and was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama hit 53 of 72 greens (73.61%) and ranked T-36th.
2021 – Greens in Regulation was 73.21%, and was the 48th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-29th.
2020 – Greens in Regulation was 64.51%, and was the 14th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith hit 51 of 72 greens (70.83%) and ranked T-20th.
2019 – Greens in Regulation was 68.89%, and was the 31st hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked 1st.
Again, weather is the key; players will hit many greens if it doesn’t blow like in 2019. But when it does blow, like in 2020, greens are hard to hit, and scores go up.

Our third stat is Par Breakers. Since Waialae ranked 37th in birdies with 1,675 and the 48th highest in Eagles with 68, the course ranked 17th in Par Breakers. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murray, made 19 birdies, T-14th in the field, and one eagle to rank T-11th in Par Breakers with a 27.78%.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – 1,678 birdies were made (T-41st hardest) and 42 eagles (44th) as 34.72% of the holes played under par, making it the hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Si Woo Kim made 24 birdies (Best) and one eagle, and 34.72% of the holes were played under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
2022 – 1,795 birdies were made (41st hardest) and 53 eagles (43rd) as 23.69% of the holes played under par, making it the 39th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama made 26 birdies (Best) but had no eagles, as 36.11% of the holes were played under par, and he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
2021 – 1,725 birdies were made (46th hardest) and 60 eagles (47th) as 25.75% of the holes played under par, making it the 44th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na made 24 birdies (T-5th) and one eagle, and 34.72% of the holes were played under par, ranking him T-3rd in Par Breakers.
2020 – 1,269 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 34 eagles (T-24th) as 17.28% of the holes played under par, making it the 6th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith made 21 birdies (T-1st) and no eagles, as 29.17% of the holes played under par, ranking him T-1st in Par Breakers.
2019 – 1,643 birdies were made (39th hardest) and 56 eagles (46th) as 21.45% of the holes played under par, making it the 19th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar made 34 birdies (T-1st) and one eagle, and 34.72% of the holes were played under par, ranking him T-1st in Par Breakers.
So we can see that the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

Our last stat is putting average. We picked this stat because most past winners, like the previous three winners, Grayson Murray, Si Woo Kim and Hideki Matsuyama, are notoriously not very good putters. Yes, Cameron Smith won, and he is one of the best putters in golf, but you look at all the winners, and we find a lot of poor putters.
Last year, Grayson Murray ranked 30th at the Sony in putting, averaging 28.75 putts per round. In 2024, Murray was T57th in putting average for the year and 108th in Strokes Gained Putting.

In 2023, winner Si Woo Kim ranked T-30th in putting, averaging 29.5 putts per round. In 2023, Kim was 42nd in putting average for the year and 163rd in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2022, winner Hideki Matsuyama ranked 3rd in putting, averaging 27.0 putts per round. In 2022, Matsuyama was T-69th in putting average for the year and 174th in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2021, winner Kevin Na was also T-3rd, averaging the identical 27.0 putts per round for Sony. In 2021 on Tour, Na was T-34th in putting average and 87th in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2020, winner Cameron Smith was T-4th, averaging 27.75 putts per round for the Sony. On the year on Tour, Smith was T-32nd in putting average and 46th in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2019, winner Matt Kuchar was T-13th. He averaged 28.00 putts per round for the Sony. During the year on Tour, Kuchar was T-51st in putting average, and T-41st in Strokes Gained Putting.
So what does this show? You don’t have to be a wizard on the greens to win. The greens of Waialae are flat, with no undulations, and are perfect for rolling a putt. This tends to help poor putters do well, so players who are great ball strikers, like a lot of the champions, are the makeup of most of the winners. Some of golf’s worst putters have found glory at Waialae, so look for the combination of great ball striking and weak putting to prevail this week.
So look for players who hit it straight because you want to avoid the rough, along with players who hit a lot of greens to do well this week.

One thing that will be hard to judge is who is in the field. Of the 23 rookies playing the PGA Tour this year, 13 are teeing up this week. Also, of the ten DP World Tour players who got their cards by being in the top ten of the Race to Dubai, only two, Jesper Svensson and Rikuya Hoshino, are playing this week in Hawaii. On top of that, 39 players have never played in this event. So those are 54 players who will be hard to judge.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Waialae:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. So it is important to find a player that will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This is a stat that shows who it’s the most greens in regulation.

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Putting average: The lowest amount of putts for the week.

97 of the 144 Players from this year’s field with stats from last year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.