BlogSony Open in Hawaii Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Since 1999, when it was slotted behind the Sentry Tournament of Champions, Sony has received an added boost because most of those at the Sentry made the short flight to Honolulu to play this event. Over the years, it’s gone up and down, but most of the time, being behind the Sentry has helped Sony’s field.

Of the 59 players in Kapalua last week, 33 have made it to the Sony.

The good news was that not only was it an elevated event, but there was double the field that used to attend the Sentry.  Because of that, a lot more players tagged along and are in the field this week:

• Winner at Sentry – Hideki Matsuyama
• T-5th at Sentry – Corey Conners
• T-5th at Sentry – Thomas Detry
• T-8th at Sentry – Tom Hoge
• T-8th at Sentry – Harry Hall
• T-8th at Sentry – Maverick McNealy
• T-13th at Sentry – Taylor Pendrith
• T-13th at Sentry – Cam Davis
• T-15th at Sentry – Austin Eckroat
• T-15th at Sentry – Sepp Straka
• T-15th at Sentry – Keegan Bradley
• T-15th at Sentry – Robert MacIntyre
• 29th at Sentry – Adam Hadwin
• T-30th at Sentry – Russell Henley
• T-32nd at Sentry – Nico Echavarria
• T-32nd at Sentry – Byeong Hun An
• T-32nd at Sentry – Si Woo Kim
• T-36th at Sentry – Stephan Jaeger
• T-36th at Sentry – Davis Thompson
• T-36th at Sentry – Sahith Theegala
• T-40th at Sentry – Patton Kizzire
• T-40th at Sentry – J.T. Poston
• T-44th at Sentry – Chris Kirk
• T-46th at Sentry – Denny McCarthy
• T-46th at Sentry – Chris Gotterup
• T-48th at Sentry – Nick Hardy
• 51st at Sentry – Billy Horschel
• 52nd at Sentry – Eric Cole
• T-53rd at Sentry – Peter Malnati
• T-53rd at Sentry – Matt McCarty
• 55th at Sentry – Nick Dunlap
• 56th at Sentry – Jake Knapp
• 58th at Sentry – Brian Harman

Since the Sentry and Sony are back-to-back, only Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) have won both events in the same year. The good news is that last week’s winner, Hideki Matsuyama, is in the field at the Sony, so there is a chance for a back-to-back Hawaii Slam, the first since 2017 with Justin Thomas.

Great start in Kapalua for 2025

I have to say that since the Sentry Tournament of Champions was started in 1953 in Las Vegas, over 3,000 PGA Tour events have been played.  In those 3,054 events, there have been eight different scores (only four winners, four didn’t win) of 30 under par or better.  People don’t realize how tough shooting 30 under par for 72 holes is.  That means a player makes one birdie for every two and a half holes played.  Ernie Els was the first to accomplish the feat in 2003 when he shot 31 under, 261 in 2003 to beat K.J. Choi and Rocco Mediate by 8 shots at the Sentry.  The next time it was done was in 2016 when Jordan Spieth shot 30 under par and beat Patrick Reed by 8 shots at the Sentry.  Dustin Johnson did it in 2020, but his 30-under score and 11-shot victory was at the Northern Trust at TPC Boston.  In 2022 at the Sentry, the record was shattered as Cameron Smith got it to 34 under and beat Jon Rahm by a shot, and Matt Jones, who shot 32 and was beaten by two shots. So, in just over 3,000 PGA Tour events, the feat was accomplished three times.

Last week, Hideki Matsuyama joined the 30-under club, breaking Cameron Smith’s record by shooting 35 under to beat Collin Morikawa by three shots.  It was amazing for Morikawa to go so low without a victory, but Hideki Matsuyama had a really special week in Maui.  He played 72 holes with two eagles and 33 birdies and only had two bogeys.  Unfortunately for Matsuyama he didn’t break the PGA Tour record of birdies made.  Holding that record is Sungjae Im who had 34 birdies in last year’s Sentry.  Despite making 34 birdies, he has seven bogeys and one double bogey and finished T-5th.

Couple of other things

Collin Morikawa also had a great week, he made 32 birdies and two bogeys to finish 12 under par to show he is hot and ready to go for 2025.

Sungjae Im was at it again at the Sentry, shooting 62-65 on the weekend to finish third at 29 under par. He again showed to be a birdie machine, making 31 for them, but had four bogeys for the week. Im is proving to be the player to pick at the Sentry. In five starts, he has only been out of the top ten once, finishing T-13th in 2023. In his last two starts, he was 3rd this year and T-5th last year.

First-round leader Tom Hoge may have only had one victory in his career and four top-ten finishes last year, but he came to Maui with new responsibilities as his wife delivered a new baby son at the beginning of December. Hoge opened with a 64 to take the first round. Hoge, one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour and one of the best picks for DraftKings, shot rounds of 68-68-69 to finish T-8th.

Another player to watch in 2025 is Will Zalatoris.  He joined the PGA Tour in 2021 and became one of the best on tour, winning the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship.  But the following week at the BMW Championship, Zalatoris tweaked his back during the third round and, with the pain not subsiding, was forced to withdraw. Zalatoris’s season was over. He couldn’t make another start and finished 30th in the FedExCup standings because of the injury. He suffered two herniated discs in his back and was told he had to rest the injury. He couldn’t play in the Presidents Cup, and what he thought would be 12 weeks turned into a four-month wait. Zalatoris explained the issue as more of a motor pattern problem, not structural. So Zalatoris consulted with Dr. Greg Rose at the Titleist Performance Institute to evaluate how he swung and make necessary changes to ensure it wouldn’t happen again. He had to make changes so that he wouldn’t push off his right side and make more of a turn than a lateral shift. He also changed his driver to shorten it by an inch and a quarter, which helped him turn more. Zalatoris had suffered back pain problems for the past two years, and the hope was that the new regimen would end the back problems. Zalatoris started hitting balls and playing on December 1st, making the changes. Zalatoris felt he could take the injury and turn it into a positive. His minor swing changes and the shortened driver have become more clubhead speed. With the time off, Zalatoris could relax, and in December, he married his college sweetheart Caitlin, and Kapalua would be their honeymoon.

The 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions was Zalatoris’ first event in 138 days, and he finished T-11th with an 8-under 65 in the final round. He took a week off and returned to the American Express, finishing T-36th. He shot a final round 64 to finish 4th at the Genesis Invitational, four shots back of winner Jon Rahm. At the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, he lost to Andrew Putnam 3 & 2, then lost to Harris English 5 & 3 and conceded his match to Ryan Fox, saying he was ill. Doctors had told him he wouldn’t be 100 percent until the Masters. He got together with his doctors, and they reevaluated his situation. He withdrew from the Masters, and during that week, Zalatoris had a microdiscectomy, a surgical procedure to relieve the pain caused when a herniated disc in the spine presses on an adjacent nerve. It was the same surgery Tiger Wood underwent. Zalatoris said the surgery was made after “Careful consideration” and seeking multiple opinions. “As much as I hate not being able to play the rest of this season, I am happy that I am already seeing the benefits of the procedure,” he wrote in a social media post. “Playing and living in pain is not fun.” So, with all this time on his hands, since he was shut down for the rest of the season, he decided to return to Wake Forest. He left the school a semester early to start his golf career and promised his parents that he’d graduate. In August, he finished up the requirements to get his psychology major. At the same time, he went through a thorough rehabilitation process and, in August, started to chip and putt. He worked his way up to hitting golf balls and was hoping by mid-September, when he was completely out of the rehab protocol, to start playing again, with the hope of playing a couple of fall events before returning full-time to the PGA Tour in January. He started at the Hero World Challenge and finished 20th (dead last).  In 2024, he started the season at the Sony Open and missed the cut.  But he did finish T-2nd at the Genesis, T-4th at the Arnold Palmer, and T-9th at the Masters.  After that he struggled, his best finish was T-12th at the FedEx St. Jude.  He took two months off after failing to reach the Tour Championship and used that time to build some muscle, which he hopes will give him a little more longevity from back issues that have forced him to miss too much time.  He put on 20 pounds and arrived in Maui weighing 182 pounds.  He had a great start to his week at Kapalua, shooting rounds of 65-70-65, and was in contention going into the final round.  A 73 dropped him into a T-26th, but he still has a lot of confidence, feeling that 2025 will be a magical season for him.

Lastly, we have the Viktor Hovland saga.  After an incredible 2023 with three wins, including the last two of the FedEx Cup playoffs, he won the FedEx Cup.  So, with a great season, the thought was that Hovland would do some minor tweaks, especially to his around-the-green play, which was the weakness of his game.  So many will question what Hovland did after winning the FedEx Cup, with over $32 million in earnings and FedExCup bonus money. He fired one coach, hired another, and is now working with another. It’s hard to explain his musical chairs among instructors – from Jeff Smith to Joe Mayo and now taking his tips from former Tour pro, Grant Waite. The mystery was the departure of Mayo, responsible for improving one of Hovland’s greatest weaknesses, chipping. Since the change, Hovland goes into the Masters with his best finish being T-19th at the Genesis, and many wonder if he would piece together something. He missed the cut at the Masters and was back working with Mayo. He had his best finish of the year, with his 3rd place finish at the PGA Championship, with three shots back from winner Xander Schauffele.  He also came close to winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship, finishing T-2nd just two back of winner Hideki Matsuyama, and finished the season T-12th in the FedExCup.  Hovland spent the fall working on several things and was back working with Mayo.  But they broke up right after Thanksgiving, and he is now consulting with a teacher via email.  He went to Norway to be home for Christmas and then flew in a day to Maui for the Sentry.  He was so tired and jet-lagged that he went to sleep in his room with his traveling clothes on and the lights on.  He woke up in the middle of the night to turn off the lights and stubbed his right pinky toe on the bed, breaking it.  He decided to play with a lot of pain and, with rounds of 70-69-68-70, finished T-36th.  His stats for the week weren’t great, again his short game showed to be a problem as he finished T-44th in Strokes Gained Around the Green.  But questions will arise again this season as he tries to implement everything.  He has admitted that his game is not sharp, and after spending most of the fall working on it, he is no better off.  So, for a few months, we need to just wait and see if he can get everything settled down and regain the game he had in 2023.

Waialae Course information:

The course was designed by Seth Raynor and Charles Banks and opened in 1925. It has undergone a series of changes, first by Bob Baldock in 1966, then Arthur Jack Snyder in 1969, then Robert Nelson and Rodney Wright in 1984, then by Arnold Palmer & Ed Seay in 1991, and finally by Desmond Muirhead in 1992.  To make things even tougher, Waialae hired Rick Smith in the late ’90s to develop some more renovations for the future.  Smith returned the course to the original design that Seth Raynor first produced.

One of the significant changes made, which didn’t affect the course but did affect the tournament, came in 1999.  That’s when championship and PGA Tour officials moved up the tees on the 1st and 13th holes and changed them from par 5s to 4s. It didn’t make the course easier or more demanding. It was a perception that the course was harder with scores going up, even though that wasn’t the case.

The average green size at Waialae is 7,500 square feet, and the course has 79 bunkers.  Nine of the holes have water on them, but only three are affected for the touring pros.  For tournament week, the nines are reversed so that the par3 8th hole, which runs along the Pacific, becomes the 17th and is shown on television. One rarity you don’t see on many courses is that four of the closing five holes (14, 15, 16 & 18) are sharp dogleg left, so those that hook the ball have an advantage.

Another thing about Waialae: It’s been the only home of the Sony Open since 1965.  The only other courses with a better track record on the PGA Tour are Augusta National, which has been the home of the Masters since 1934, Pebble Beach, which has been the home of the AT&T since 1947, and Colonial, which has been the home of the Charles Schwab Challenge since 1948

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Waialae:

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and data from all the players in the field with rankings from 2024 stats.
The field’s scoring average at Waialae last year was 68.82, making it almost a shot under par and the 27th hardest course of the 50 on Tour.

Here is a look at the scoring average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – Average was 69.19, was the 36th hardest of the 58 courses that year
2022 – Average was 68.00, was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
2021 – Average was 67.97, it was the 45th hardest of the 51 courses that year
2020 – Average was 70.51, was 9th hardest of 41 courses that year
2019 – Average was 68.92, was 32nd hardest of 49 courses that year
Many will wonder why there was a difference of almost two and a half shots between 2020 and 2021.

In 2021, the scoring average was 67.97, making it play just over two shots under par and the 45th hardest course on Tour (7th easiest). The reason for such an easy scoring average in the last three years was the perfect weather conditions with limited winds. It was a significant difference over 2020 when the field’s scoring average at Waialae was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event, with the most significant change being part of the course going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course has played under par every year until 2020. The reason for this is wind; in 2020, they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday and 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This year will be a different story, with warm skies but winds between 13 mph and going up to 14 mph on Friday, 16 mph on Saturday and 17 mph on Sunday.

As we saw at Kapalua last week, weather plays an important factor in scoring, and with light winds and firm, fast conditions, the scores were low on Sunday. So, looking at the forecast, it seems perfect for the players on Thursday, but scoring will be complicated from every day to Sunday. That brings in a different realm of players; those with explosive offensive skills will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course, but it’s still a layup for the best players in the world with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shoot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. The fairways are different than those in Kapalua, which are wide and welcoming. At Waialae, the fairways are tight, making for a tough go. Last year, the course ranked 15th in driving accuracy as the players hit 56.84% of the fairways. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murray, was ok off the tee as he hit 67.86% (38 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-11th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kim ranked 1st.

Here is a look at the driving average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – Driving Accuracy was 54.56%, and was the 18th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Si Woo Kim was ok off the tee as he hit 62.50% (35 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kim ranked 1st.
2022 – Driving Accuracy was 61.56%, and was the 29th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama was ok off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Matsuyama ranked 5th.
2021 – Driving Accuracy was 57.64%, and was the 19th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na was not straight off the tee as he hit 55.46% (31 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-50th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Na ranked 2nd.
2020 – Driving Accuracy was 65.53%, and was 32nd hardest of 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith was better off the tee as he hit 64.29% (36 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-41st. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Smith ranked 30th.
2019 – Driving Accuracy was 56.27%, and was 13th hardest of 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar was great off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-4th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kuchar ranked 3rd.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the excellent weather.

Our second stat is Greens in Regulation. In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 17 of the 23 have been in the top 12, while nine of the 22 have been in the top three.
Last year, Waialae ranked 27th out of 47 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 69.06% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murry, hit 57 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked T-2nd.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – Greens in Regulation was 71.64%, and was the 43rd hardest of the 58 courses that year
Winner Si Woo Kim hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked T-2nd.
2022 – Greens in Regulation was 72.61%, and was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama hit 53 of 72 greens (73.61%) and ranked T-36th.
2021 – Greens in Regulation was 73.21%, and was the 48th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-29th.
2020 – Greens in Regulation was 64.51%, and was the 14th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith hit 51 of 72 greens (70.83%) and ranked T-20th.
2019 – Greens in Regulation was 68.89%, and was the 31st hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked 1st.
Again, weather is the key; players will hit many greens if it doesn’t blow like in 2019. But when it does blow, like in 2020, greens are hard to hit, and scores go up.

Our third stat is Par Breakers. Since Waialae ranked 37th in birdies with 1,675 and the 48th highest in Eagles with 68, the course ranked 17th in Par Breakers. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murray, made 19 birdies, T-14th in the field, and one eagle to rank T-11th in Par Breakers with a 27.78%.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
2023 – 1,678 birdies were made (T-41st hardest) and 42 eagles (44th) as 34.72% of the holes played under par, making it the hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Si Woo Kim made 24 birdies (Best) and one eagle, and 34.72% of the holes were played under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
2022 – 1,795 birdies were made (41st hardest) and 53 eagles (43rd) as 23.69% of the holes played under par, making it the 39th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama made 26 birdies (Best) but had no eagles, as 36.11% of the holes were played under par, and he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
2021 – 1,725 birdies were made (46th hardest) and 60 eagles (47th) as 25.75% of the holes played under par, making it the 44th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na made 24 birdies (T-5th) and one eagle, and 34.72% of the holes were played under par, ranking him T-3rd in Par Breakers.
2020 – 1,269 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 34 eagles (T-24th) as 17.28% of the holes played under par, making it the 6th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith made 21 birdies (T-1st) and no eagles, as 29.17% of the holes played under par, ranking him T-1st in Par Breakers.
2019 – 1,643 birdies were made (39th hardest) and 56 eagles (46th) as 21.45% of the holes played under par, making it the 19th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar made 34 birdies (T-1st) and one eagle, and 34.72% of the holes were played under par, ranking him T-1st in Par Breakers.
So we can see that the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

Our last stat is putting average. We picked this stat because most past winners, like the previous three winners, Grayson Murray, Si Woo Kim and Hideki Matsuyama, are notoriously not very good putters. Yes, Cameron Smith won, and he is one of the best putters in golf, but you look at all the winners, and we find a lot of poor putters.
Last year, Grayson Murray ranked 30th at the Sony in putting, averaging 28.75 putts per round. In 2024, Murray was T57th in putting average for the year and 108th in Strokes Gained Putting.

In 2023, winner Si Woo Kim ranked T-30th in putting, averaging 29.5 putts per round. In 2023, Kim was 42nd in putting average for the year and 163rd in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2022, winner Hideki Matsuyama ranked 3rd in putting, averaging 27.0 putts per round. In 2022, Matsuyama was T-69th in putting average for the year and 174th in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2021, winner Kevin Na was also T-3rd, averaging the identical 27.0 putts per round for Sony. In 2021 on Tour, Na was T-34th in putting average and 87th in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2020, winner Cameron Smith was T-4th, averaging 27.75 putts per round for the Sony. On the year on Tour, Smith was T-32nd in putting average and 46th in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2019, winner Matt Kuchar was T-13th. He averaged 28.00 putts per round for the Sony. During the year on Tour, Kuchar was T-51st in putting average, and T-41st in Strokes Gained Putting.
So what does this show? You don’t have to be a wizard on the greens to win. The greens of Waialae are flat, with no undulations, and are perfect for rolling a putt. This tends to help poor putters do well, so players who are great ball strikers, like a lot of the champions, are the makeup of most of the winners. Some of golf’s worst putters have found glory at Waialae, so look for the combination of great ball striking and weak putting to prevail this week.
So look for players who hit it straight because you want to avoid the rough, along with players who hit a lot of greens to do well this week.

One thing that will be hard to judge is who is in the field. Of the 23 rookies playing the PGA Tour this year, 13 are teeing up this week. Also, of the ten DP World Tour players who got their cards by being in the top ten of the Race to Dubai, only two, Jesper Svensson and Rikuya Hoshino, are playing this week in Hawaii. On top of that, 39 players have never played in this event. So those are 54 players who will be hard to judge.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Waialae:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. So it is important to find a player that will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This is a stat that shows who it’s the most greens in regulation.

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Putting average: The lowest amount of putts for the week.

97 of the 144 Players from this year’s field with stats from last year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

• Hideki Matsuyama – $11,000
• Corey Conners – $10,200
• Russell Henley – $9,900
• Tom Kim – $9,900
• Keegan Bradley – $9,500
• Byeong Hun An – $9,400
• Robert MacIntyre – $9,300
• Maverick McNealy – $9,200
• Sahith Theegala – $9,100
• Si Woo Kim – $9,000

In past Sony’s because of the weather conditions with lack of wind and perfect conditions, we have looked for players that produce the most offensive power, meaning lots of birdies and eagles this week. This week, that will be necessary, with excellent conditions and lack of wind, it will create a big onslaught on Waialae. Now we know that predicting weather is very dicey in Hawaii. Even the TV stations in Hawaii are vague on long-term predictions because they know that it could switch at a moment’s notice. But in all of the time I have spent in Hawaii, yes, it’s a rarity to see four straight days of hardly any wind.

One thing to realize, the winner could be anyone and usually is.  Again it’s best to look for a great ball striker and good putting is not needed to win.

Going back to 1972, only two players won Sony on their first try.  They were Bruce Lietzke in 1977 and Russell Henley in 2013.  That shows us one important element about the Sony, experience means something.  It’s important to note that since Henley won:

• In 2014 Jimmy Walker won on his eight visit to the Sony.
• In 2015 Walker won again on his ninth visit.
• In 2016 Fabian Gomez won on his fourth visit.
• In 2017 Justin Thomas won on his third visit.
• In 2018 Patton Kizzire won on his second visit.
• In 2019 Matt Kuchar won on his 14th visit.
• In 2020 Cameron Smith won on his fifth visit.
• In 2021 Kevin Na won on his 14th visit.
• In 2022 Hideki Matsuyama won on his ninth visit
• In 2023 Si Woo Kim won on his sixth visit.
• In 2024 Grayson Murray won on only his second start, in his previous start, he missed the cut in 2021

So, as you can see, experience means a lot.  Of the 10 players on the top of DraftKings point total, all of them have played at the Sony.  Still, some first-timers are playing well right now, and we should watch

First is amateur Luke Clanton, who is a junior at Florida State.  He played in eight events on the PGA Tour in 2024 and had four top tens, including a 5th at the Wyndham, a T-2nd at the John Deere, and T-2nd at the RSM Classic.  He could be in line to play well again at Waialae, as he ranks 5th in driving accuracy, first on greens in regulation, and 43rd in Strokes Gained putting in stats for the 2024 season (they didn’t rank in standings since he only played in 32 rounds).  20-year-old Aldrich Potgieter from South Africa is one to watch.  Potgieter played on both the DP World Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour.  He got his PGA Tour card by finishing in the top 30 of the 2024 Korn Ferry Tour Point list, finishing 29th.  Earlier in 2024, he won the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic.  In his last three starts on the DP World Tour, he was T-42nd at the Alfred Dull, T-2nd at the Nedbank Golf Challenge, and T-6th at the BMW Australian PGA.  So watch him this week.

That said, I would like Hideki Matsuyama at $11,000.  He has struggled in ten of his eleven starts at Waialae, but that one good start was a win in 2022.  Matsuyama was great last week at the Sentry, and he seems to be injury-free.  One thing to look at is how he does the week after winning.  I was shocked to find out he withdrew at the BMW Championship a week after winning the FedEx St. Jude.  But he has three top-12 finishes after winning the Genesis last year.  He finished T-30th at the 2022 Farmers after winning the Sony.  After winning the 2021 Masters, he was T-39th at the Byron Nelson.  The point is Hideki is in his best shape with no back problems.  In his last Japan Golf Tour start last year, he was T-2nd at the Dunlop Phoenix, so I think he will play great this week, and last week shouldn’t be a problem.  Corey Conners at $10,200 is one to also watch, he was T-5th last week at the Sentry.  Like that he hits the ball straight and is good in hitting greens.  His weakness is putting, but that is not a problem playing Waialae.  So he is a good choice.  Russell Henley at $9,900 always finds a way to do well at Waialae, he won in 2013 and was runner-up in 2022 and T-4th last year.  Tom Kim at $9,900 is a no for me, he missed the cut in his only Sony start.  One thing that could change your mind, he had a pair of runner-up finishing in the Genesis Championship in October in Korea and was 2nd at the Hero World Challenge last month.  Keegan Bradley at $9,500 is a yes for me, he was T-2nd at the Sony last year.  You would think this course is Taylor made for his game.  Byeong Hun An at $9,400 is priced to high for me.  Yes he was T-2nd last year at the Sony and was T-12th in 2024.  Now, his game has drastically improved; he won the Genesis Championship in Korea last October, but his price is too high.  I do like Robert MacIntyre at $9,300.  He was T-52nd last year at the Sony but his game has improved since last year.  He ended 2024 T-7th at the DP World and 7th at the Hero World, he was T-15th last week in Maui.  Sahith Theegala at $9,100 is a no for me, his two Sony starts are not very good and he struggled a bit at Maui last week.  Si Woo Kim at $9,000, won at the Sony in 2023 and has the game to do well at Waialae.  He is straight off the tee, and his iron play has improved.  His price is right, and it could be a home run this week.

*Players in the $7,500 to $8,900 range:

Taylor Pendrith at $8,800 is a good bet for this week.  He was T-10th last week at the Sony and has the game to play well at Waialae.  He has been very solid since his last missed cut at the PGA Championship.  He was T-13th last week at the Sentry, I think he is a lock to finish in the top ten this week.  Austin Eckroat at $8,700, is another player who plays well in win; his two wins in 2024 came at the Cognizant and World Wide Technology.  He has quietly become a star player who should do well on this course.  Luke Clanton at $8,400 is a great pick, I talked about him above and how well he has played on the PGA Tour as an amateur.  Thomas Detry at $7,500, is a Waialae rookie but has played well since joining the PGA Tour.  He was T-5th last week at the Sentry.  Daniel Berger at $7,500, has proven to be a very good pick for the Sony.  His last start in 2021 he was T-21st, his game got better in the fall, he was runner-up at the RSM Open in November.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

Andrew Putnam at $7,400, is a great pick.  He was T-10th last year at the Sony and T-4th in 2023, along with his runner-up finish in 2019.  Lucas Glover is $7,300, and it has surprised me that he constantly doesn’t play better at the Sony.  Sure, he was T-5th in 2022, but he missed the cut last year and in 2024.  I still think he is too good not to be content this week.  Patrick Fishburn at $7,200 is an excellent choice, even as he plays the Sony for the first time.  I like him due to his excellent play in the Summer and fall.  His game should suit Waialae.  Patton Kizzire at $6,900 is a cheap choice that will cut the price and make some money.  He plays great at the Sony, and along with his 2018 victory, he has played well, including a T-13th last week.  Aldrich Potgieter at $6,600 is too good to pass up.  I explained the reasons why up above, he ended 2024 player great and it should carry over to this week.  Taylor Montgomery at $6,400 is cheap enough to take a stab at.  He was T-13th last year at the Sony and T-12th in 2023, his game was touch and go in 2024 but still think he will make the cut

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sony Open in Hawaii

The key stat for the winner:

• The PGA Tour is still in Hawaii for the Sony Open. Played at Waialae C.C. it’s a fun course for the pros, especially if the wind doesn’t blow. The wind is the only true protection Waialae gets. If it blows, scores are reasonable, but without winds, scores go low, and just as Justin Thomas showed us in 2017 by shooting 59. So with no winds this week, we could see a lot of low scoring. 

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• The first thing to realize is that Waialae is the opposite of the Plantation Course, which held the Sentry last week. Driving accuracy meant nothing, as the Plantation course has the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. But this week is a different story; Waialae is one of the most demanding driving courses on tour each year. So it helps to drive the ball straight, so look at the driving accuracy charts for 2024 and in the top 20, you may find your winner. Looking at the last couple of years’ driving accuracy list, it is funny how past champions in the previous decade, like Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Zach Johnson, Paul Goydos, David Toms, and Jerry Kelly, have ranked high.
• Another critical stat to look at is total driving which combines distance with accuracy and looks for the leaders in this stat playing at the Sony to do well.
• On a scale of 1 to 10, hitting greens is essential, with 10 being the most critical; give hitting greens a 7. Still, you can’t dismiss this stat since 2002, 17 of the last 24 champions have been in the top ten in this stat, and only four are worse than the 20th.  That is until 2021 when winner Kevin Na hit 55 of the greens and ranked T-29th.  Even worse was in 2022 when Hideki Matsuyama hit 53 of the 72 greens and ranked T-36th.  In 2024, Si Woo Kim hit 60 of 72 greens and was T-2nd in that stat.  Last year was more of the same as winner Grayson Murray hit 57 of 72 greens to rank T-2nd.  In the previous years, 2019, Matt Kuchar led the stat hitting 60 of 72 greens, he joined Jimmy Walker in 2015, and John Huston in 2008 as the three champions to lead the greens hit category since 1997.
• More important stats this week include picking a high on the par breaker list. Hideki Matsuyama, Cam Davis, Thomas Detry, Harry Hall, and Austin Eckroat are in the top ten.
• Finally, the par 4s at Waialae is U.S. Open-caliber, they are tough and rank on top of the tour as the toughest in golf. Again, in looking at the winners going back to 2000, when changes were made to reduce par from 72 to 70, every champion was between 2 under and 10 under. Last year Grayson Murray was seven under, in 2023 Si Woo Kim was five under, 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama was 12 under on them, while in the previous year Kevin Na was 9 under. In 2020, Cameron Smith was 4 under when he won; Matt Kuchar was 11 under; in 2018, Patton Kizzire was 8 under; 2017 winner Justin Thomas was 15 under, and Fabian Gomez was 12 under the year before. In 2015 Jimmy Walker was 16 under, the previous year he was 10 under. In 2013, Russell Henley had the tournament best in this stat, playing the par 4s in an incredible 17 under.