AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Key Fantasy Stats

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

January 30th – February 2nd, 2025

Pebble Beach Golf Links

Pebble Beach, CA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 6,972

Purse: $20 million

with $3,600,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Wyndham Clark

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

For the second time, we have a key fantasy article for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am. In past years, Pebble was only used for two rounds, but as a signature event using only two courses, it now warrants looking to see what kind of player could win at Pebble. Unfortunately, last year’s final round was rained out, so only two rounds were played at Pebble.

Pebble Beach is on the Monterey Peninsula, 120 miles south of San Francisco. It is considered the most spectacular golf course in the world and is loved by different organizations. Pebble is not only the yearly site of a PGA Tour event but also a Champions Tour event, as well as the U.S. Open, PGA Championship, and U.S. Women’s Open.

The land was owned by Samuel Morse, the nephew of the telegraph and Morse code inventor. Morse had an eye for the natural beauty of the Monterey Peninsula and bought 7,000 acres of the Penisula, including seven miles of Pacific oceanfront, for $1.3 million in 915. Morse then formed the Del Monte Properties Company and envisioned a resort with a golf course on prime acreage that ran along the bluffs above Carmel Bay. Morse built his golf course instead of selling the oceanfront property for homes tes. One of his real estate agents was Jack Neville, who won the California Amateur Champion hip. Even though Neville had never built a course before, Morse decided to give him a chance to handle the de ign. Neville asked another California Amateur Champion, Douglas Grant, to help him with the project, and they spent a month routing the 18 holes.
The course opened for play in 1918, but in the inaugural competition, it was deemed unplayable for the average golfer and closed for revision. Neville and Grant softened it up, and in 1919, it was again open for play.

Over the next ten years, Neville and Grant modified the course, and in 1928, H. Chandler Egan, Robert Hunter, and Roger Lapham strengthened it for the 1929 U.S. Ama eur. Since then, the course has remained the same, except for redesigning the fifth hole, which undoubtedly endorses Neville and Grant’s sound design.

Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay: the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th, and 18th. The 18th hole is considered by many to be the best finishing hole in golf. It was initially a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards. Many call it the greatest finishing hole in golf, but the changes in equipment have ravished it. Before 2000, nobody would dare try to reach the green in two, but now about half the pros can go for the green in two.
The next time the USGA returns to Pebble in 2027 for the U.S. Open.
Pebble Beach has held many tournaments, including four U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61, ’99 & 2018) and the 1989 Nabisco Championship. It is also the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am, which was once the Bing Crosby. Pebble has one distinction: it is the first public course to hold the U.S. pen. Since then, Pinehurst, Bethpage, and Torrey Pines have joined the rota, with Chambers Bay and Erin Hills holding U.S. Opens in 2015 and ’17.

The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet, making the greens the smallest used on the PGA Tour. The course has 92 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine holes along the Pacific.

So what does this mean for you who are trying to make a pick for this week or if you are looking for six winners in your DraftKings picks? If you look at the scoring average for Pebble, it’s been around its par of 72. Last year, it was 69.63 and was the 40th hardest course of the year. Since course stats have been kept by the PGA Tour going back to 1983, this is the first time the average score was in the 60s. The previous low was 70.24 in 2015.
So why was it so low? Perfect conditions, no wind and rain. In fact, it rained so hard on Sunday that the event was shortened to 54 holes. Another reason for the low scores is that the field consisted of only 80 of the best players in the world. In past AT&Ts, the field was always at 156.
In 2023, the average for Pebble was 71.53, making it the 21st hardest course of the year. In 2022, it was 70.76, and the 35th hardest course. In 2021, it was 71.20, and the 29th hardest, while in 2020, it was 72.52 and the 8th hardest course of the year on the PGA Tour. Now, for the U.S. Open, Pebble plays to a par of 71; in 2019, it played at 72.24, and in 2010, it played at 74.98. So, what brings the discrepancy in the scoring average? The time of year, the AT&T is played in February as the course is usually wet with all the rain. The course is also much lusher with all the previous months’ rain. In June, the course is dry and plays fast; winds play a significant role in making the course harder, along with how the USGA sets up courses.

So, with that said, how can we judge this course? One thing we are going to do is use only strokes-gained stats. It’s not that stats like driving accuracy or greens in regulation don’t work, but strokes gained are more defining and will help us pick players better.

Our first is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee because driving will be necessary. Driving distance is always essential, but many players will need to throttle back this week, so getting it in the fairway is essential, and the closure you get to the greens is better but unnecessary.

Last year, AT&T, Pebble was the shortest driving course on the PGA Tour, with the average drive going just 277.4 yards per drive. As for driving accuracy, 69.38% of the fairways were hit, as it was the 42nd hardest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. Last year’s winner, Wyndham Clark, hit 27 out of 28 fairways, which ranked T-45th, and his average drive was 290.8, which ranked 2nd. So for the week, Clark was 17th in Strokes Gained off-the-Tee. Now remember, because of rain, the final round was canceled, so Clark only played two rounds at Pebble, which the stats were kept on.
In the 2023 AT&T, Pebble was the shortest driving course on the PGA Tour, with the average drive going just 270.9 yards per drive. As for driving accuracy, 66.25% of the fairways were hit, as it was the 11th easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. Last year’s winner, Justin Rose, hit 36 out of 54 fairways, which ranked T-44th, and his average drive was 282.1, which ranked 45th. So for the week, Rose was 55th in Strokes Gained off-the-Tee. One thing about Pebble with the small greens is if you miss a fairway, you will not get it on the green, so you can see hitting it straight is essential.

Our next stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green because hitting greens is essential, and you have very few targets with 3,500 square foot greens.

Last year at AT&T, 72.22% of the greens were hit, ranking the course 37th. Winner Wyndham Clark hit 37 of 54 greens and ranked T-47th. So, for Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, Clark ranked 20th.
In the 2023 AT&T, 65.73% of the greens were hit, ranking the course 25th. Winner Rose hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-34th. So, for Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, Rose ranked 14th.

Our third stat is Strokes Gained around the green because players will miss greens and, to win, have to get it up and down.

Last year, with 35.87% of the greens missed, 64.13% of the players got it up and down, ranking Pebble the 38th hardest course to scramble on. As for Clark, of the 8 greens he missed, he got it up and down on 5 of them to rank 46th in scrambling and 14th in Strokes Gained around the green.
At the 2023 AT&T, 34.27% of the greens missed, 55.09% of the players got it up and down, ranking Pebble the 11th hardest course to scramble on. As for Rose, of the 22 greens he missed, he got it up and down on 18 of them to rank T-4th in scrambling and 4th in Strokes Gained around the green.

Last is Strokes Gained-Putting because it will be essential for players this week.

Last year, Clark was first in putting average, first in one putt, and 20th in three putts. He ranked first in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2023, Rose was 3rd in putting average, T-5th in one putt, and T-11th in 3 putting. He ranked 14th in Strokes Gained Putting.

The one thing we can’t stress more is that there is no known stat for a player being smart. Many great players, from Tiger to Jack to Tom Watson to Billy Casper to Sam Snead and Bryon Nelson, have won at Pebble. So, look over the stats, and you can narrow the 80 in the field down to about 30. From there, look at who has great minds in how they play the golf course, and you will have your winner.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The per-round average of the number of strokes based on the number of fairways and distance hit

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: This takes into account the number of greens and the proximity to the hole in the interest of saving shots.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: The number of strokes gained from shots around the green, a lot of it is scrambling and bunker play..

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of strokes gained in putting

This is the 70 of the 80 players from this year’s field with PGA Tour stats from 2025.
Seven players are participating in their first event in 2025, so for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Rose, we are using their ranks for stats from 2024. Those players with 2024 stats are in bold.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.