BlogAT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week, we have a reimagined AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am. Have to think that its tournament founder is rolling in his grave as the heart and soul of the event, and its celebrity players are no longer a part of the event. No more Bill Murray, Kevin Costner, or Andy Garcia. Yes, you will see some football and baseball players who are in the amateur field, but things have drastically changed. As that has become more important, you will see more CEOs and business types. There are two ways of looking at this. First, the celebrity portion was growing old and cumbersome. On top of that, they had to play three different courses, and most of the marquee professionals were taking the week off. Things have changed; this week, the PGA Tour has designated this a signature event in which the best of the best are in the field. There will be 80 pros playing two courses in a no-cut event with $3.6 million as the first prize. The first two days, they will rotate between Pebble and Spyglass Hill; each pro will have an amateur partner. After 36 holes, the amateurs are out, and the 80 pros will play at Pebble Beach. Yes, it will be different not having all of the celebrities, but this has now become a big-time event played on one of the iconic courses in Golf. In a way, the tournament has been drastically changed as the interest in the event has drastically been elevated. Of course, it’s disappointing that something that has been around for nearly 90 years has drastically changed, but for the sake of the PGA Tour, this is a good thing, having a signature event played on two great golf courses.

The first four winners of the year have been surprises. First, you had Hideki Matsuyama win in Maui; the surprise was how he did it. He finished with a 35-under par total, the lowest 72-hole score to par in PGA Tour history.

The next surprise was Nick Taylor winning; it was not surprising to win because he did it for the fifth time, but the surprise was how he played. Last year, Taylor won the WM Phoenix Open in a playoff over Charley Hoffman, and everybody thought it would be the first of many accomplishments for the talented, talented Taylor in 2024. But it wouldn’t be; in the remaining 23 events, he only had one top ten, and that was in the Zurich team event. He only had one top-24 finish in the remaining events, a T-12th at the Arnold Palmer. So many thought, what was up? In the season-opening Sentry, he only beat nine other players as he finished T-48th.  Maybe we should have taken notice of Taylor as he finished with rounds of 66-69, but things got better as he shot 66-68-65-65, chipped in from off the green on the 72nd hole for an eagle, getting him into a playoff with Nico Echavarria. Taylor beat him with a birdie on the second playoff hole. Showing that the victory wasn’t a “fluke,” Taylor finished T-12th at the American Express the following week.

The following week at the American Express, Sepp Straka surprised us all by winning in the La Quinta desert. In 2024, Straka had a great spring, starting with his T-5th at the Heritage; this added three top-8 finishes. But after his T-5th at the Memorial, Straka struggled with only one top-20 finish. He did make it to East Lake, but finishing T-27th was a big disappointment. Straka didn’t show any signs of his game being sharp as he finished T-15th at the Sentry and the T-30th at the Sony. Straka put together rounds of 65-64-64 at the Amex to put together his first career 54-hole lead, going into the final round with a four-shot lead. Straka wasn’t great in the final round, but he wasn’t pressured by those close to him, and a final round 70 was good enough for a two-shot victory over a charging Justin Thomas, who shot 66 in the final round.

At the Farmers, Harris English was the big surprise. Not that he played well at Torrey Pines. He had a good track record on the course; in 2015, he lost a playoff to Jason Day, and at the 2021 U.S. Open, he finished 3rd, just three shots back of winner Jon Rahm, so we knew he had the game to win at Torrey Pines. The week after, he won the Travelers Championship for his fourth PGA Tour victory. Unfortunately, a nagging problem would become a significant problem in the weeks after. For the last ten years, he had pain in his hip, but at the start of the 2022 season, things got out of hand as the nagging pain turned into excruciating pain. By the Phoenix Open, it was something that had to happen; he withdrew from Phoenix, flew home, and on February 14th, had to have Surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip. He tried to return for the Masters but couldn’t play until the Memorial. The rest of the season wasn’t great, as his best finish was T-19th while trying to defend his Travelers title. Things improved in 2023; he finished T-2nd at the Arnold Palmer, one of five top-ten finishes, finishing 38th in the FedEx Cup standings. In 2024, things didn’t get any better as he finished with four top tens and was 57th in the FedEx Cup standings. His best finish was T-6th at the Black Desert Championship. 2025 didn’t seem any better as he missed the cut at the Sony and was T-43rd at the American Express. At Torrey, he had one advantage, the toughest of the course, and with high winds Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, it played super hard. He also realized his putting was terrible at the Sony and Amex and worked on it in the days before the Farmers. The work paid off, and his good putting was one of the keys to the victory, the fifth in English’s 14-year PGA Tour career. The key to his victory was his experience; he made a bogey at 1 and 5, followed by a birdie at 6. Little did English know then, but he would make 12 pars on his final 12 holes, which was enough for the one-shot win over Sam Stevens.

So, the big question coming into AT&T is, do any of these four winners have a chance of winning?

For English and Straka, I say no; they have terrible track records in this event. Hideki Matsuyama is a good choice for many, but you must be a great putter and expert in getting it up and down on the greens, so I eliminate him. That leaves Nick Taylor, who won in 2020 but has struggled on the course since his best finish is T-14th in 2022. I wouldn’t count him out; he was T-12th at the American Express and is playing well.

Xander Schauffele

It seemed weird to me when Schauffele didn’t play the Hero World Challenge at the start of December. It’s not a big deal; players take time off and don’t always play an event. Schauffele didn’t play at the Hero in 2023. I also had a weird feeling about Schauffele when he finished T-30th at the Sentry. Besides Xander withdrawing in 2023, he hasn’t finished out of the top 25; that made me wonder if something was wrong. But Schauffele played in a TGL event a few days later, and everything seemed okay, but it wasn’t.

According to Gabby Herzig of the Athletic, Schauffele hurt himself in a pre-season workout sometime in December. He’s recovering from a rib cage injury. It’s on his right side, and it’s an acute intercostal strain/micro tear. Nobody is saying anything, but the first thing on my mind is, if it’s a micro tear, could he need Surgery, which would keep him out at least for two months? We will have to wait and see what happens in the coming days.

Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler

They are two players returning from Surgery this week. We know the deal with Scheffler; on Christmas, while making ravioli, his right hand was pierced by a glass that needed Surgery. As we said last week, Scottie and his team have been very quiet, but he is returning this week at Pebble. Scottie talked to reporters during a media call for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He said, “I’m definitely anxious to get back, excited to get back, but I’m also not going to rush back just to rush back.” Now, the one thing that may get gamblers a bit concerned: a week ago, Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis reported that Scheffler was only chipping and putting and hadn’t made any full swings. In a report on Tuesday from the driving range at Pebble, Lewis reported that Scheffler was on the range hitting full shots and looked good with no bandage or wrap on his right hand. The old proverb says, beware of the injured golfer; it’s not wise to bet much on Scheffler, and we should wait for his next start at the Genesis.

Jordan Spieth

Of all the wounded, I like Jordan Spieth this week. Yes, he hasn’t played at the FedEx St. Jude since August, but the last couple of years has been rough on Spieth. The wrist has been getting bad for years, and in that time, Spieth has picked up some bad swing habits and moves, which always happens with injuries. The injury started at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill, and after the British Open last July, Spieth knew what he had to do. After he got eliminated in the FedEx Cup race in Memphis, Spieth underwent Surgery. He went through a normal rehab and told AP writer Doug Ferguson he was taking his time to eradicate some unwanted habits. So, Spieth has done a complete redo of his golf game, and it will be interesting to see how he looks. Of course, he is not a treat this week, but I can see Jordan in the top ten. One thing I like is that I have to think that Jordan will be one of the favorites by the Masters. So again, we have to show some patience and allow Spieth to get back into stride, but I like him very much in the coming weeks.

How about the weather for the week?

For years, the weather for the AT&T has had its share of terrible conditions. Last year, it was so bad that on Sunday, the final round was postponed until Monday, but that outlook was so bad that the event was reduced to 54 holes. So things are always touchy. In 2023, the event saw terrible conditions during the first three days, with rain and wind gusts of 30 to 36 mph. The weather got so bad it backed things up, and they had to finish on Monday. In 2022, the event had perfect conditions with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to high 60s; in 2021, the events saw mostly cloudy skies with rain on Saturday and windy conditions every day; it never got above 60. In 2020, it was one of those perfect years of sunshine and temperatures in the mid-60s. The point, you never know.

This year will be better, but not great. All three days will be pushing to get to 60 degrees. Other than Thursday afternoon, when the sun peaks out, the sun won’t show up as we will have cloudy, overcast skies. Rain is predicted for Saturday, but that will be the only wet day. The good news is the lack of wind; all three days will see between 8 and 11 mph, creating a different scenario in which players who hit it longer will have an advantage. Those mudders will have a golden opportunity this week.

Course information:

• Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,972 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 74.4 rating and slope rating of 142 from the championship tees Pebble Beach Golf Links is a resort and open to the public.
• The course is situated on the Monterey Peninsula, its 120 miles south of San Francisco, Pebble Beach is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world.
• Despite the official name, the course is not a real links course because it is set on craggy cliffs above Carmel Bay.  Eight of the holes skirt the coastline, and these holes distinguish Pebble Beach.
• In prepping Pebble for the 2019 U.S. Open in 2015, the 17th Green was modified and rebuilt, and over the summer of 2016, the 14th Green went through a severe change.  The green doesn’t have the drastic elevation change in the front, back right.  The bunker is still deep and tough, making the green a bit flatter and having more pin places.  In 2017 the 13th hole saw the green rebuilt to create a hole location on the right side of the green, and a bunker was put into the left of the green.

The other course used this year:

• Spyglass Hill Golf Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 7,041 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 75.3 rating and a slope rating of 148 from the championship tees. The course resorts and is open to the public.
• Last year, Spyglass played to a 70.57 average and was the 31st hardest course on Tour. In 2023, it played to a 72.80 average and was the 8th hardest course on Tour. The close-to-two-shot easiest scoring average between 2023 and last year was due to only 80 players in the field, compared to 156 in 2023.
• The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and opened in 1966. The Spyglass Hill was built thanks to Samuel Morse, who had initially thought of creating it as part of the Lodge at Pebble Beach. The course was to be called Pebble Beach Pines Golf Club, but Morse changed it to Spyglass Hill. This was partly because of his friend Robert Louis Stevenson, who got the inspiration for his book Treasure Island while visiting the area in which Spyglass was built.
• Spyglass is a mix of several different courses. The first five holes go down through dunes and offer magnificent views of the Pacific. The next couple of holes play back into the pines, still offering ocean views. The last nine, you wouldn’t even know that the ocean is a mile away; the holes play through Monterey pines. Spyglass is a different course than Pebble. While Pebble’s greens are small, Spyglass’s are large and undulating. Weather is a big part of Pebble; while it can be blowing up a storm there, Spyglass could be calm just a few miles away. When Spyglass first opened up, it would drive the pros that played in the Crosby crazy annually and would be among the hardest courses on Tour. It’s still one of the most challenging courses on Tour, but the course has softened with time, and now there is nothing but praise about the course.
• The significant advantage of playing Spyglass Hill is that after the first six holes, the last 12 holes are protected from wind, which helps on windy days.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at Pebble Beach:

For the second time, we have a key fantasy article for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am. In past years, Pebble was only used for two rounds, but as a signature event using only two courses, it now warrants looking to see what kind of player could win at Pebble. Unfortunately, last year’s final round was rained out, so only two rounds were played at Pebble.

Pebble Beach is on the Monterey Peninsula, 120 miles south of San Francisco. It is considered the most spectacular golf course in the world and is loved by different organizations. Pebble is not only the yearly site of a PGA Tour event but also a Champions Tour event, as well as the U.S. Open, PGA Championship, and U.S. Women’s Open.

Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay: the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th, and 18th. The 18th hole is considered by many to be the best finishing hole in golf. It was initially a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards. Many call it the greatest finishing hole in golf, but the changes in equipment have ravished it. Before 2000, nobody would dare try to reach the green in two, but now about half the pros can go for the green in two.
The next time the USGA returns to Pebble in 2027 for the U.S. Open.
Pebble Beach has held many tournaments, including four U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61, ’99 & 2018) and the 1989 Nabisco Championship. It is also the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am, which was once the Bing Crosby. Pebble has one distinction: it is the first public course to hold the U.S. pen. Since then, Pinehurst, Bethpage, and Torrey Pines have joined the rota, with Chambers Bay and Erin Hills holding U.S. Opens in 2015 and ’17.

The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet, making the greens the smallest used on the PGA Tour. The course has 92 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine holes along the Pacific.

So what does this mean for you who are trying to make a pick for this week or if you are looking for six winners in your DraftKings picks? If you look at the scoring average for Pebble, it’s been around its par of 72. Last year, it was 69.63 and was the 40th hardest course of the year. Since course stats have been kept by the PGA Tour going back to 1983, this is the first time the average score was in the 60s. The previous low was 70.24 in 2015.
So why was it so low? Perfect conditions, no wind and rain. In fact, it rained so hard on Sunday that the event was shortened to 54 holes. Another reason for the low scores is that the field consisted of only 80 of the best players in the world. In past AT&Ts, the field was always at 156.
In 2023, the average for Pebble was 71.53, making it the 21st hardest course of the year. In 2022, it was 70.76, and the 35th hardest course. In 2021, it was 71.20, and the 29th hardest, while in 2020, it was 72.52 and the 8th hardest course of the year on the PGA Tour. Now, for the U.S. Open, Pebble plays to a par of 71; in 2019, it played at 72.24, and in 2010, it played at 74.98. So, what brings the discrepancy in the scoring average? The time of year, the AT&T is played in February as the course is usually wet with all the rain. The course is also much lusher with all the previous months’ rain. In June, the course is dry and plays fast; winds play a significant role in making the course harder, along with how the USGA sets up courses.

So, with that said, how can we judge this course? One thing we are going to do is use only strokes-gained stats. It’s not that stats like driving accuracy or greens in regulation don’t work, but strokes gained are more defining and will help us pick players better.

Our first is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee because driving will be necessary. Driving distance is always essential, but many players will need to throttle back this week, so getting it in the fairway is essential, and the closure you get to the greens is better but unnecessary.

Last year, AT&T, Pebble was the shortest driving course on the PGA Tour, with the average drive going just 277.4 yards per drive. As for driving accuracy, 69.38% of the fairways were hit, as it was the 42nd hardest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. Last year’s winner, Wyndham Clark, hit 27 out of 28 fairways, which ranked T-45th, and his average drive was 290.8, which ranked 2nd. So for the week, Clark was 17th in Strokes Gained off-the-Tee. Now remember, because of rain, the final round was canceled, so Clark only played two rounds at Pebble, which the stats were kept on.
In the 2023 AT&T, Pebble was the shortest driving course on the PGA Tour, with the average drive going just 270.9 yards per drive. As for driving accuracy, 66.25% of the fairways were hit, as it was the 11th easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. Last year’s winner, Justin Rose, hit 36 out of 54 fairways, which ranked T-44th, and his average drive was 282.1, which ranked 45th. So for the week, Rose was 55th in Strokes Gained off-the-Tee. One thing about Pebble with the small greens is if you miss a fairway, you will not get it on the green, so you can see hitting it straight is essential.

Our next stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green because hitting greens is essential, and you have very few targets with 3,500 square foot greens.

Last year at AT&T, 72.22% of the greens were hit, ranking the course 37th. Winner Wyndham Clark hit 37 of 54 greens and ranked T-47th. So, for Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, Clark ranked 20th.
In the 2023 AT&T, 65.73% of the greens were hit, ranking the course 25th. Winner Rose hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-34th. So, for Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, Rose ranked 14th.

Our third stat is Strokes Gained around the green because players will miss greens and, to win, have to get it up and down.

Last year, with 35.87% of the greens missed, 64.13% of the players got it up and down, ranking Pebble the 38th hardest course to scramble on. As for Clark, of the 8 greens he missed, he got it up and down on 5 of them to rank 46th in scrambling and 14th in Strokes Gained around the green.
At the 2023 AT&T, 34.27% of the greens missed, 55.09% of the players got it up and down, ranking Pebble the 11th hardest course to scramble on. As for Rose, of the 22 greens he missed, he got it up and down on 18 of them to rank T-4th in scrambling and 4th in Strokes Gained around the green.

Last is Strokes Gained-Putting because it will be essential for players this week.

Last year, Clark was first in putting average, first in one putt, and 20th in three putts. He ranked first in Strokes Gained Putting.
In 2023, Rose was 3rd in putting average, T-5th in one putt, and T-11th in 3 putting. He ranked 14th in Strokes Gained Putting.

The one thing we can’t stress more is that there is no known stat for a player being smart. Many great players, from Tiger to Jack to Tom Watson to Billy Casper to Sam Snead and Bryon Nelson, have won at Pebble. So, look over the stats, and you can narrow the 80 in the field down to about 30. From there, look at who has great minds in how they play the golf course, and you will have your winner.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The per-round average of the number of strokes based on the number of fairways and distance hit

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: This takes into account the number of greens and the proximity to the hole in the interest of saving shots.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: The number of strokes gained from shots around the green, a lot of it is scrambling and bunker play..

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of strokes gained in putting

This is the 70 of the 80 players from this year’s field with PGA Tour stats from 2025.
Seven players are participating in their first event in 2025, so for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Rose, we are using their ranks for stats from 2024. Those players with 2024 stats are in bold.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the very costly guys:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,900
• Rory McIlroy – $10,700
• Collin Morikawa – $10,200
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,900
• Justin Thomas – $9,800
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,400
• Sam Burns – $9,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
• Sungjae Im – $9,000

So we have the best of the best, so it’s all about going through these folks and finding value players, those that will do well for the least amount of money. DraftKings’ first choice is Scottie Scheffler – $11,900, sorry I don’t see it.  He is returning from a serious injury to the palm of his hand, and frankly, with him not playing competitively since the first week of December and the injury, I will not spend such an amount.  Yes, he finished T-6th last year in his only AT&T start, and yes, he won in his last start at the Hero, but I am just watching him play this week.  I am not very enthusiastic about Rory McIlroy at $10,700.  He was T-4th two weeks ago in Dubai, but his record is not good at Pebble, so pass on him.  I like Collin Morikawa at $10,200, feel his game is going to be great in 2025, he showed that with his runner-up finish at the Sentry.  Even though he has played in the AT&T once, I think he will be good this week.  I do like Ludvig Aberg at $9,900, he finished 2nd in his only AT&T start last year and was T-5th at the Sentry and shot 63 in the first round at the Farmers to lead.  He got very sick over the weekend, throwing up on Sunday to drop down to T-42nd.  Despite that, I think he will be in top form this week on two courses that are perfect for his game.  Justin Thomas at $9,800 is also a player I like, he was T-6th last year at the AT&T and is playing well now.  It’s only a matter of time before he wins. It could be this week.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,600 is not my cup of tea this week.  Both courses need great tee-to-green games, which is up Matsuyama’s alley, but he is not good around and on the greens.  So it’s best to take a pass on him this week.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,400 is one of those players that is hard to gauge each week.  But I like him due to his good play at the AT&T of late, he hasn’t been higher than T-11th in last four starts (was T-3rd in 2021).  Also has played well this year, was T-15th at the Sentry (after first round 74), and T-5th at the Amex.  Sam Burns at $9,200 is an ok pick, nothing great, but nothing terrible.  He was T-10th last year, and in his two starts in 2025, he was T-8th at the Sentry and T-29th at the Amex.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100 is a no, sorry I don’t think Pebble and Spyglass suit his game, he is not playing well right now.  Sungjae Im at $9,000 is not for me, yes, he was 3rd at the Sentry and T-4th at the Farmers, but he missed the cut at the Amex.  I don’t like him because he is expensive, doesn’t make that many birdies, and seems to be a good top-ten pick, but he struggles to get higher than 3rd.  He has struggled in this event.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Jason Day at $8,900, is a perfect pick this week; in 14 AT&T starts, he has 9 top ten, including top 11s in eight of his last nine starts.  He was T-6th last year, was T-40th at Sentry, T-3rd at Amex, and T-32nd at Farmers.  Keegan Bradley at $8,500 is an excellent price for a player who is in good form.  He was T-15th at the Sentry, T-6th at the Sony and T-15th at the Farmers, last year was T-11th at the AT&T which makes him a great pick.  Taylor Pendrith at $8,300 is a very good choice, he has played well for months now and was T-7th at AT&T in 2023.  I like Maverick McNealy at $8,100. He grew up at Pebble and was runner-up in 2021. He is getting over a shoulder problem, and his game has improved; he was T-37th last week at Torrey.  Jordan Spieth at $7,900 is a good pick, even though this is the first event back from wrist surgery.  I advise him since this is a no-cut event, and his price is dirt cheap.  Same with Robert MacIntyre at $7,700.  Playing in the AT&T for the first time, his price is great for a player who plays well on courses on the sea.  Adam Scott at $7,600 is another great player at a great price.  A top ten is within his grasp, so at such a low price, he is a bargain.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

So, who are our bargains for the week? Thomas Detry at $7,400 is someone not to be passed up on.  He was T-4th last year at AT&T, and he has been good this year, T-5th at the Sentry and T-15th at the Farmers.  Tom Hoge at $7,300 is also too good to pass up on, he won the AT&T in 2022, was T-48th in 2023 and T-6th last year.  The year he has been ok, including a T-8th at the Sentry.  Nick Taylor at $7,200 is a great price, considering he won the AT&T in 2020 and the Amex two weeks ago.  Denny McCarthy, at $7,000, is also worth a look; he was T-4th at AT&T in 2023 and T-16th at Sony.  Eric Cole at $6,800 is good, considering that two AT&T starts were T-14th last year and T-15th in 2023.  He has played in all four events in 2025 and was 5th at the Sony.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Key stat for the winner:

• The AT&T Pebble Beach brings on some particular problems; it takes a lot of patience to endure this week with amateur partners. Another problem is the luck of the draw; someone could be playing at Spyglass, which is tree-lined on the last 12 holes, and may not get the brute of a heavy wind that some players encounter at Pebble Beach, which in places is tree-less and could get clobbered by the wind. For some that play in the late afternoon, the conditions of the greens get dicey, especially since Poa Annua greens get bumpy and hard to predict. So, it takes a particular breed of player to endure this.
• Mixed news: the weather will not be great during the event, with rain possible and winds each day. So, if you are on Pebble’s ocean holes, you will feel the winds while those at Spyglass will be protected.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: Except for Brett Ogle in 1993, Dustin Johnson in 2009, and Nick Taylor in 2020, those who won at Pebble were veteran players. A perfect example is the 2023 winner, Justin Rose. The point here is don’t look for inexperienced players winning here; in its history going back to 1950, only one pro won on his first visit to Pebble, which was Ogle. In 2019, 48-year-old Phil Mickelson won for the fifth time. But on the other end of the spectrum, Daniel Berger won in 2021 at the age of 27; the previous year, Nick Taylor won for the first time at 31 and has been around since 2008. In 2022, Tom Hoge shocked the golfing world by winning the AT&T at 23 after spending seven years struggling. Last year’s winner, Wyndham Clark, was 30 when he won.
• Could we expect a rookie or someone with minimal experience to win this week? Look at D.A. Points in 2011; he missed three out of four cuts before winning. Some could call this a flunk; having comedian Bill Murray as his partner helped him, and without Murray, Points probably would have never won. In 2016, Vaughn Taylor saved his career with a victory that surprised many. In 2018, Ted Potter, Jr. won in his ninth start. It wasn’t that great of a year; he missed the cut in five events, and his best finish was T-13th before winning at Pebble.
• Also, look at Dustin Johnson. In 2009, Johnson was a surprise winner because the weather reduced the event to 54 holes; winning a tournament that you lead after 54 holes is always easy. The same was true with Wyndham Clark last year, thanks partly to shooting 60 on Saturday at Pebble. This type of player, the guy you least expect to win, will win this week.
• The best-kept secret of this event between 1981 and 2005 is that none of the first-round leaders went on to win. However, Phil Mickelson started a trend in 2005; 8 of the last 16 winners, Mickelson twice, Johnson twice, and Points in 2011, were in the lead after the first day. 2015 Brandt Snedeker led after the first and second rounds, then was T-2nd in the third round. In 2016, it was back to normal as Taylor was way back after the first and second rounds and six back of the 54-hole leader, But in 2017, Jordan Spieth had the lead after every round, the first player to have the outright lead after every round since Mickelson did it in 2015. In 2020, Nick Taylor shot a first-round 63 to take the lead and never looked back, leading after every round. In 2021, Daniel Berger opened with a 67 and was T-11th before he went crazy, shooting 66-72-65 to win. In 2022, Tom Hoge shot 63 to lead after the first round and never looked back to win by two shots.
• One streak that is on the line and looking to stay intact is that in the previous 65 years of American Express, nobody has ever won AT&T and American Express in the same year. Amex winner Nick Taylor is playing, he is playing well and possibly could break this streak.
• Putting is always a key at AT&T, especially since the tricky poa annua greens tend to get very bumpy in the afternoon. Those who can deal with this will be mentally ahead of the game.
• Look for someone who hits many greens or putts very well to win. He also has to play very well over the weekend, which is the key to the rest of the winners. Pro’s play Pebble twice, which has the most petite greens on the PGA Tour. Putting becomes vital in winning because of that, and the greens at Pebble do not have many undulations. In making putts between 4 and 8 feet, it has ranked one of the hardest courses on tour 8 of the last 15 years; last year, it ranked 3rd; in 2022, it ranked 4th. In 2021, it ranked 1st while. In 2020, it ranked 3rd. It was 1st in 2019, 10th in 2018, 2nd in 2017, and 3rd in 2016. In putts inside 10 feet, Pebble was 1st in 2023 and 2019, 6th in 2018, 4th in 2017 and 2016, and 15th in 2015, but first in 2014.
• Lastly and very importantly, to win, you must make sure you play well at Spyglass Hill. That is the hardest of the courses, and a good round there gives you a significant advantage. A perfect example was in 2005 with Phil Mickelson; he opened up with a 62 at Spyglass, shattering its scoring record, and could build upon that great round. To show how important it is to play well at Spyglass, since 2015, every winner except for one shot in the 60s has been at Spyglass. The only one not in the 60s was Ted Potter, Jr. in 2018, who shot 71. In 2023, Justin Roe shot 69 at Spyglass Hill, and Wyndham Clark shot 72 in his first round last year at Spyglass.