BlogArnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The Tour is back at Bay Hill, which was the pride and joy of Arnold Palmer. This will be the ninth time this event has returned to Bay Hill without Palmer. Despite the concern that marquee names wouldn’t attend the last few years, that isn’t the case, as it’s a designated event with a top prize of $4 million. So, just about anybody that is anybody is playing this week. That is good because if the event isn’t a designated event next year, many will probably not go.

As we said last week, it’s not about the course, the money, the sponsor, or how the tournament is run. Again, it’s all about the scheduling, and players can’t play week in and week out. Unfortunately, the fields will be weak at the Valspar and the Houston Open, but the Valero Texas Open may have a better field because players want to get ready for Augusta. Still, with the Masters six weeks away, we have a great stretch of golf.

One thing to think about is that no matter how good the folks running the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you will never substitute Arnold Palmer, who had a critical role in this event. The tournament and course had been his pride and joy for nearly four decades since he bought the course in 1976 and had the Florida Citrus Open transferred to Bay Hill in 1979. Not only did Palmer tinker with the course each year to make it fresh, but Palmer also used to contact and write letters to players asking them to play. You just had to play in the event when you get a letter from Palmer. Byron Nelson used to do that for his tournament. No matter what you thought about the course, you wouldn’t say no to Palmer or Nelson, down to the point that when players didn’t play, like Bubba Watson a couple of years ago, they would come over and meet with Palmer to explain their reason for being absent.

Unfortunately, even though each week has a great event with powerful sponsors, some events will only attract some of the marquee names. So, it will be interesting to see how the Arnold Palmer Invitational will cope in the coming years. It’s evident that even with a purse of $20 million and a first-place check of $4 million, you just aren’t going to get everyone to play.

Things you need to know about the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

According to the PGA Tour, this will be the 60th Arnold Palmer Invitational, which started in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open. But if you look around, there is no big splash. You can’t find anywhere in the tournament’s material raving about its 59th anniversary.

There is a good reason for that:

If you asked Arnold Palmer, he only counted the years when the event moved to Bay Hill, so this would be the 46th time this tournament has been played. The event started in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open, and it barely survived when Arnold Palmer and his associates took over in 1978. They gave new life to the event by moving it to Bay Hill in 1979. In the 45 years since it changed to the Bay Hill Club, the tournament has been elevated to a level considered one of the premier stops on tour, as voted by the players.

Some other things to consider from past winners of the Palmer:

One streak that broke in 2023 was that 16 of the previous 16 champions made the cut the previous time they played in the Palmer. But Kurt Kitayama had never played in the Palmer, bringing up another record. Before Kitayama’s win, only Bob Byman in 1979 and Robert Gamez in 1990 won in their rookie Bay Hill start, and in a way, Byman doesn’t matter since it was the first time the event was at Bay Hill.

27 of the last 28 Palmer winners had at least one previous career PGA Tour or European Tour victory. The only player to win without a victory before winning the Palmer was Matt Every in 2014.

27 of the last 29 champions had at least one other top-ten in that season

17 of the previous 20 winners had a top-20 finish in another Palmer start and had played in at least three Arnold Palmers.

Course information:

• Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• Orlando, Fl.
• 7,466 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 73.9 rating and a slope rating of 136 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those who stay there and its members.

The average green size at Bay Hill is 6,500 square feet, which is slightly over the PGA Tour average. The course has 103 bunkers, and water is present on nine of the 18 holes.

The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 72.33, making it the 10th most challenging course on the PGA Tour. In 2020, however, due to high winds all week, it was the hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 74.11 average.

Dick Wilson and Joe Lee initially designed and built the course in 1960.

It’s funny how Arnold Palmer got associated with it. In 1948, 78 years ago, Palmer played college golf at Wake Forest, and they made a trip down to Orlando to play against Rollins College.  According to Orlando Sentinel writer Mike Bianchi, Palmer loved the area and the beauty of the Orlando area.  The town was still 21 years before DisneyWorld and was not considered a big area. Still, Palmer loved it so much that he considered transferring to Rollins College.  But he stayed at Wake Forest and ten years later became the top golfer in the world.  But Palmer still had Orlando in the back of his mind, and in 1965, those memories were rekindled.

In the early 1960s, when Bay Hill opened, Palmer and Jack Nicklaus played an exhibition tournament at the course, and the King was so attracted to Bay Hill that he got together a group of investors and leased the club with an option to buy it.  In January of 1976, the group purchased the course, and since then, until his death, Palmer would spend most of the winter in a condo behind Bay Hill.  Palmer loved to tinker with the course. Since Palmer left the Champions tour and had more time on his hands around 2000, he spent lots of time making changes, probably the biggest coming in 2007 when he took the par 5, 4th, and 16th holes and converted them into par 4s, thus reducing the par of the course to 70.  That didn’t last long, as Palmer changed his mind again in 2010 and changed the par back on the 4th and 16 holes, and the course returned to par 72.

Only about 11 years ago, before he started slowing down, Palmer would constantly tinker with something on the course, making small changes here and there, but there have been no changes in nine years until now.  The course took out the big bunker in front of the green of the par 3, 17th hole.  That has been the only change to the course since Palmer passed away.  Despite the club not tinkering with the course anymore, there is always one thing consistent each year: rough, which is very high and difficult to get out of and helps bring scores up each year.  We can see a bit of a trend; scores were high with the winners between 2012 and 2014 at 13 under par, but in the two years Matt Every won, he was 13 under in 2014 and 19 under in 2015.  In 2016, Jason Day was 17 under par; two years later, Rory McIlroy was 18 under par, and it hasn’t decreased since then.

Bay Hill received a facelift before the 2016 event as all the greens on the course were re-grassed with Emerald Bermuda, making the greens roll more accurately and faster.  The fairways and tees were also re-grassed with Celebration bermudagrass.  One last change was when they closely mowed areas around the green, which meant chipping and scrambling were more laborious than in past years. The scores hovered right around that 15 under total until severe weather brought the winning score down to 4 under in 2020 by Tyrrell Hatton.  In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau won with an 11 under figure; in 2022, Scottie Scheffler won at 5 under, while Kurt Kitayama was 9 under in 2023.  Last year, with very little wind and perfect scoring conditions, Scottie Scheffler won with a 15 under-par total, the lowest score since Rory McIlroy won with an 18 under-par total in 2018.  The weather is supposed to be a lot like last year, but I don’t see a winning score in double digits because the rough is way up this year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Bay Hill:

This is based on the most important stats for Bay Hill, data from last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2025. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth of eight designated events of the year and has a great field.

The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 72.33, and it was the 10th hardest of 50 courses on the PGA Tour. The conditions weren’t perfect, as the winds blew with gusts up to 23 mph on Friday and Saturday, but the course conditions were soft, and the course played the easiest since 2019.

Here is a look at the scoring average at Bay Hill for the last few years:
*2023 – Average was 72.66, was the 10th hardest of the 58 courses that year (The conditions were good early with winds between 5 and 10 mph. Saturday got up to 80 degrees with southwest winds blowing 15 to 20 mph with gusts at 30mph. Sunday was as perfect as can be, with a high of 77 and winds at 10 to 15 mph.
*2022 – Average was 73.89, was the 4th hardest of the 50 courses that year (Reason for the high average, high wins up to 20 mph over the weekend).
*2021 – Average was 73.02, it was the 9th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 74.11, and it was the hardest of 41 courses played that year (The course was dry and fast, and each day saw gusts to 22 to 25mph)
*2019 – Average was 712.38, was 9th hardest of 49 courses that year

As we can see, the course is very tough, with 103 bunkers with water coming into play on nine of the 18 holes. The rough and hard greens and the elements of wind make the course a true brute. But could there be a significant change this week? Last week at the Cognizant, we again saw record scores as they changed the course was wet and rough not as bad as past years So scores were low on a course that used to be hard.
The folks who run the Arnold Palmer Invitational have never made Bay Hill any easier over the past few years. But with conditions this year, Thursday and Friday will be perfect with winds under 15 mph. Over the weekend, again, good conditions with winds under 15 mph, with possible thunderstorms on Sunday. So again, the pros will get a break from really hard conditions, and scores could be lower this year.

So, what are the keys to picking a winner this week? It’s said that ball striking is becoming a dinosaur on the PGA Tour, but that isn’t the case at Bay Hill, where hitting lots of greens is essential. Between 1997 and 2008, there wasn’t a winner that didn’t finish out of the top 20 of greens hit for the week.  In 2009, Tiger Woods changed that when he finished T50th, but since then, 11 of the last 15 winners were in the top 9, including last year’s champion Scottie Scheffler, who was 2nd in Greens in regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. The year before, Kurt Kitayma led the greens hit category, hitting 51 of 92 greens. Since 1997, six champions have led the green in regulation category. (Phil Mickelson in 1997, Tiger Woods in 2003 & ’12, Keny Perry in 2005, Marc Leishman in 2017 and Kitayama in 2023).

So yes, Greens in Regulation is important, but our #1 category for this week is Strokes Gained tee-to-green
This stat considers distance, accuracy off the tee, and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in examining Bay Hill’s stats over the last couple of years. Greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical every year, and they are key to playing the course well.
The course ranked 10 in greens hit last year. In 2023, it ranked 7th in greens hit and 2nd in 2022. It was 5th in Greens in Regulation in 2021 and 1st in Greens hit in 2020, the norm for any year of perfect weather. In 2020, it ranked 5th in 2019 and 17th in 2018.
The course was 23rd in driving accuracy last year, 19th in 2023, 16th in 2022, 12th in 2021, 10th in 2020, 26th in 2019, and 39th in 2018. So, hitting fairways and greens is essential.
In driving distance for all holes, the course ranked 11th last year with a 287.2 average.
In 2023, it ranked 11th with an average drive of 287.2.
In 2022, it ranked 13th with an average drive of 285.8.
In 2021, it ranked 6th with an average drive of 281.7.
In 2020, it ranked T-9th with an average drive of 282.4.
In 2019, it ranked 14th with an average drive of 282.0.
In 2018, it ranked 10th with an average drive of 280.7.
Last year, tournament winner Scottie Scheffler ranked 12th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 295.0 yards per drive, and was T-38th in Fairways hit (32 of 54) and 2nd in greens hit (50 of 72). Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green

Here is a look at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit and their rank in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green for the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners in the last few years:
2023 – The course ranked 11th in driving distance with an average drive of 287.2 yards (out of 58 courses), 19th in driving accuracy, and 7th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Kurt Kitayama was 57th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 282.0 yards per drive, T-1st in accuracy, hitting 39 of 54 fairways, and T-1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 51 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 14th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2022 – The course ranked 13th in driving distance with an average drive of 285.8 yards (out of 50 courses), 16th in driving accuracy, and 2nd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 7th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 295.3 yards per drive, T-55th in accuracy, hitting 29 of 54 fairways, and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 44 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2021 – The course ranked 6th in driving distance with an average drive of 281.7 yards (out of 51 courses), 13th in driving accuracy, and 5th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was 1st in driving distance (all holes), averaging 304.9 yards per drive, T-25th in accuracy, hitting 32 of 54 fairways, and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – The course ranked T-9th in driving distance with an average drive of 2982.4 yards (out of 41 courses), 10th in driving accuracy, and 1st in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was 34th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 282.3 yards per drive, T-33rd in accuracy, hitting 30 of 54 fairways, and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2019 – The course ranked 14th in driving distance with an average drive of 282.0 yards (out of 49 courses), 26th in driving accuracy, and 5th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Francesco Molinari was T-31st in driving distance (all holes), averaging 284.4 yards per drive, T-3rd in accuracy, hitting 43 of 54 fairways, and T-6th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 48 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our second category is Proximity to hole. In our ranking, we consider hitting greens one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 10th in greens in regulation, again reflecting the easy scoring conditions with the weather. Still, for the previous 13 years, ten of the winners have been in the top 9 in greens hit; taking it a step further, six of those same champions finished in the top two, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship. Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked 2nd in his five-shot victory over Wyndham Clark. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 15th as the field averaged 3389 feet, 5 inches from the hole. Last year’s winner, Scheffler, ranked T-13th and averaged 35 feet, no inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with proximity to hole for the Arnold Palmer winners the last few years:
2023 – The course ranked 7th in Greens in Regulation (out of 58 courses) and 11th in proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and five inches.
Winner Kurt Kitayama was 1st in Greens in Regulation (hitting 51 of 72 greens) and 3rd in proximity to hole, averaging 32 feet and two inches.
2022 – The course ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation (out of 50 courses) and T-3rd in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and three inches.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was T-9th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in proximity to hole, averaging 36 feet and 11 inches.
2021 – The course ranked 5th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and 6th in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and 11 inches.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was T-2nd in Greens in Regulation and T-54th in proximity to hole, averaging 43 feet and three inches.
2020 – The course ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation (out of 41 courses) and 2nd in proximity to hole, averaging 44 feet and one inch.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was T-9th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and 11 inches.
2019 – The course ranked 5th in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and 3rd in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and 1 inch.
Winner Francesco Molinari was T-6th in Greens in Regulation and 18th in proximity to hole, averaging 38 feet and no inches.

Our third category is Scrambling, mainly because of its history, where many greens are missed. Since Bay Hill is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, it ranked 17th hardest, with players getting it up and down 56.90% of the time, while winner Scottie Scheffler ranked 8th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 22 greens (68.18%) he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling of the Arnold Palmer winners over the last few years:
2023 – Bay Hill finished 25th in scrambling, getting it up and down 58.39% of the time
Winner Kurt Kitayama was ranked T-7th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 21 greens he missed.
2022 – Bay Hill finished 7th in scrambling, getting it up and down 52.88% of the time
Winner Scottie Scheffler was ranked 40th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 28 greens he missed.
2021 – Bay Hill finished 19th in scrambling, getting it up and down 56.80% of the time
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was ranked 10th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 22 greens he missed.
2020 – Bay Hill finished 15th in scrambling, getting it up and down 57.01% of the time
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was ranked T-7th, getting it up and down in 20 of the 30 greens he missed.
2020 – Bay Hill finished 27th in scrambling, getting it up and down 59.77% of the time
Winner Francesco Molinari was ranked 5th, getting it up and down in 19 of the 24 greens he missed.
The winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Our last critical category is Putting inside Ten Feet. In looking at the winners’ stats, the one thing that stands out each year is that they either hit a lot of greens and don’t putt that great, or they are super in putting but don’t hit a lot of greens. The greens at Bay Hill are some of the best on the PGA Tour to putt on. The big reason is the lack of undulation, making the greens easy to read; thus, a lot of putts can be made. The most crucial aspect is to make putts inside ten feet; last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill ranked 32nd (out of 38 courses) in making putts inside ten feet as the field made 88.91% of the putts in that range. As for winner Scottie Scheffler, he ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Putting for the week but was T-33rd in Putting inside ten feet, making 62 of 70 putts. It shows how perfect the greens at Bay Hill are in making putts when you consider that Scheffler only missed eight putts inside ten feet (88.57%). For the week, Ludvig Aberg led that stat, with an average of 96.88%, as he only missed two putts in that distance, so it shows that putts can be made.

Here is a look at the Putting Inside Ten Feet of the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners for the last few years:
2023 – For those putting inside ten feet, 88.49% of the putts were made, which ranked 31st of the 41 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Kurt Kitayama was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting, and he made 62 of 69 putts inside ten feet (89.86%) and ranked T-30th. Kitayama had 17 putts in the four to eight-foot range, making seven of them.
2022 – For those putting inside ten feet, 86.64% of the putts were made, which was the 5th hardest of the 36 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 17th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 61 of 75 putts inside ten feet (81.33%) and ranked 76th. Scheffler’s Achilles’ heel in putting was that he had 25 putts between five and nine feet and only made nine of them.
2021 – For those putting inside ten feet, 88.14% of the putts were made, which was the 24th hardest of the 39 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was 21st in Strokes Gained Putting, making 64 of 69 putts inside ten feet (92.75%) and ranking T-12th. DeChambeau had 61 putts from six feet in and made 58.
2020 – 87.84% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 15th hardest of the 29 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 63 of 70 putts inside ten feet (90.00%) and ranked 21st.
2019 – 88.95% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 32nd hardest of the 35 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Francesco Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 60 of 65 putts inside ten feet (92.31%) and ranked 16th. He was 4th in total putts made at 379 feet, 3 inches; in the 56 putts he had of seven feet or under, he only missed once.
In 2018, McIlroy was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in total putting. He had 54 putts of seven feet and didn’t miss a single putt, the key to winning that year.
The same is true with 2017 winner Marc Leishman, who was second in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in Total Putting. He had 58 putts of seven feet and in and only missed one, the key to his victory.
The same thing happened with the 2016 champion, Jason Day. He was 6th in Storkes Gained Putting and 7th in Total Putting. As for putts inside 7 feet, he had 60 and only missed one, so you can see that putting is essential for those who have won at Bay Hill.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT BAY HILL:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This stat is a good barometer of overall play, from drives to hitting into the greens. For years, Bay Hill has always been in the top 20 in Driving Accuracy and Greens hit; last year, it ranked 10th in Greens Regulation and 23rd in Driving accuracy.

*Proximity to Hole: Average length that a player hits from the pin; last year, it was 15th, with each shot ending up 38 feet, five inches from the hole.

*Scrambling: Of the 47 courses on tour in 2024, players at Bay Hill got it up and down 56.90% of the time, ranking 17th. So it’s essential for players to make sure to get it up and down on those holes that they miss the greens.

*Putting inside ten feet: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. In 2016, Bay Hill ranked the hardest of the 37 courses, while last year, it ranked 32nd out of 38 courses, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

70 of the 72 players from this year’s field with stats from this year.

Please note that Xander Schauffele has been out due to a rib injury, so we as using his 2004 stat rankings. (no stats for Jackson Koivun):

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Players who like and play well at Bay Hill:

Each year, players vote Bay Hill as one of their favorite courses on the PGA Tour.  So which players seem to do the best at Bay Hill year after year?

Of course, many will say that Scottie Scheffler plays the best at Bay Hill.  Sure, he has played it four times and won twice, but the first time he played it in 2020, he finished T-15th and was 3 over par, including three rounds over par.

The player who has been the most consistent is Rory McIlroy.  In ten trips to Bay Hill, he has made every cut, and his worst finish was T-27th in 2016.  Throughout 40 rounds, he has only been over par 11 times and shot in the 60s 14 times.  He won at Bay Hill in 2018 and was runner-up in 2023.  Of the ten times he has gone into the final round, he has only not been in contention once in 2016.  The final round has been McIlroy’s achilles’ heel, in his lsat six starts he has only broken par once, so he has left a lot of possible wins on the course.  The question will be if he can find the same magic he had in 2016 when he shot rounds of 69-70-67-64.

Keegan Bradley always seems to be able to play well at Bay Hill.  In his first start in 2011, he shot 78-77 to miss his only cut.  Since 2013, he has been 12 for 12 in making the cut; in 2013, he was T-3rd and the next year runner-up.  It’s hard to believe that since then, his best finish is T-10th in 2021 and ’23.  Bradley’s big problem is that one bad round knocks him out of contention, but again, if you are looking for someone who does well at Bay Hill, Keegan is the man.

Sungjae Im is also a player who does well at Bay Hill.  In six trips, he has been inside the top 21, six times.  He was T-3rd in 2019, and 3rd in 2020, and since then has four finishes of T-18th, T-21st, 20th, and T-21st.  One thing you shouldn’t expect from Im is to go low.  That isn’t in the cards as his low round is just 68, and he has only broken 70 four given times.  Still Im is very consistent year in and year out at Bay Hill.

Max Homa is another player who has done well at Bay Hill.  in five starts he has never been higher than 24th and last year was T-8th.  We know he isn’t playing well now, but last year wasn’t a great year and he had his lowest finish at Bay Hill so expect the unexpected with Homa.

Another player coming into Bay Hill not playing well is Viktor Hovland. But he has found success making six of six cuts, his best finishes being T-2nd in 2022 and T-10th in 2023. He wasn’t playing well last year and finished T-36th.

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,000
• Rory McIlroy – $10,800
• Xander Schauffele – $10,100
• Ludwig Aberg – $9,900
• Collin Morikawa – $9,800
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,500
• Justin Thomas – $9,400
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,300
• Tony Finau – $9,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
• Sam Burns – $9,000

Before you start, you must be aware that even with a limited field of 72 players, there still is a 36-hole cut. Just like at the Genesis three weeks ago, it will be the top 50 and ties, plus any player within ten shots of the 36-hole lead.

It’s been a very interesting week, and the top of the list has some people who could win this week. But at the end of the day, we may be better served this week by some players below $9,000.

First off is Scottie Scheffler at $12,000, and we know that of anyone in the field, Scheffler always makes a lot of DraftKings points. In his last 45 starts going back to the 2023 Sentry, he has averaged 105.8 points per start, a boatload. His low in the 45 events was 35.0 at the U.S. Open last year at Pinehurst, and his 45 starts has only been 11 times. Gosh, there are people in this field that average just 62 points.  Last year, with his win at the Palmer, Scheffler earned 122 points, so you can expect, at worst, 100 points if you pick him.  Even with his hand injury that prevented him from playing in the Sentry and Amex, I have to say Scheffler’s West Coast swing was the same this year as it was in 2024.  Scheffler’s problem seems to be Poa Annua greens, and now that he is in Bermuda, expect a good week from Scottie. So could this week be a week that he avoids Scheffler and goes for Rory McIlroy at $10,800?  Rory plays well at Bay Hill, and in 38 starts on the PGA Tour since the 2023 Sentry, he averages 85.1 DraftKings points per event.  Yes, it’s 20 points below Scottie, but we have to think that Rory is playing well and playing on a course he does well on.  As for Xander Schauffele at $10,100, he is a no just because we don’t know how he is playing and how severe his rib injury was.  I know that if he plays well, people will not be happy, but in such a completive week, it’s best to wait and see how rusty Schauffele is.  Remember this: there will always be next week.  Ludwig Aberg at $9,900 was in the same boat as Schauffele, he had surgery in September and took a bit to get back to 100% and then he was sideline with a stomach virus at the Farmers and AT&T Pebble.  But he showed us that he is back winning the Genesis.  But before you dive in and pick Alberg, one distrusting note: Aberg has struggled the last two years in Florida events.  Yes, he won the RSM Classic on the same conditions as Florida courses and a few miles from the Florida border, but his past play in two years in the Palmer, Players, and Valspar is not so good, yes he was 8th at the Players last year, but with his high price tag best to avoid Aberg this week.  I am also showing caution on Collin Morikawa at $9,800, he has missed his last two Bay Hill cuts and in four starts his best finish is T-9th in 2020.  I am cautious of him since he was T-17th in his last two starts at Pebble and Genesis.  It could be a good week for Patrick Cantlay at $9,500.  He was T-4th at Bay Hill in 2023 and T-36th last year, but in his first four starts, he has been Ok, he was T-5th at American Express and Genesis.  We can flip a coin on Justin Thomas at $9,400.  He has been playing well since the FedEx Playoffs, and many feel he is ready to win again.  He was 2nd at the American Express, T-48th at Pebble, T-6th at Phoenix and T-9th at Genesis.  I do not want to throw cold water on this, but he hasn’t been great at Bay Hill, only playing it three times with the best finish of T-12th last year.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,300 is another tough choice, but he is a no for me.  His record at Bay Hill is solid, in ten starts has made nine cuts.  But I don’t like that he only has one top ten, T-6th in 2016.  On top of that, since winning at the Sentry, his best finish in his next five starts was T-13th at the Genesis.  Tony Finau at $9,200 is a no for me, and his Florida record is not good.  At Bay Hill, in five starts only made three cuts and a best finish of T-24th in 2023.  Sure, he was 5th in his last start at the Genesis, but that doesn’t spell him playing well in Florida.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100 is a tough choice, he has mixed results in Florida and Bay Hill, yes was T-3rd at Bay Hill but that was in 2019.  Last year, he missed the cut at Bay Hill.  He played Ok in 2025, and his last start was T-5th at the Genesis.  Sam Burns at $9,000 is a not for me, his record at Bay Hill is not great with just one top ten in seven starts and after finishing T-8th at the Sentry, his best finish since was T-22nd at Pebble.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

As I have said above, the difference between failing and winning comes down to some of these picks. SungJae Im at $8,900 has a good record at Bay Hill with two top tens in six starts. After finishing 3rd at the Sentry, he missed the cut at the American Express but finished T-4th at the Farmers.  But it’s not been great since, and in his last two starts, he missed the cut at the Genesis and Cognizant.  Maverick McNealy at $8,700 is a good choice, he has played Ok at Bay Hill, but his game is getting better as he was T-9th at Phoenix and 2nd at Genesis.  Will Zalatoris at $8,600 could be a good pick.  Was T-4th last year at Bay Hill, his game is still in progress and it will only be a bit before he starts rolling again.  Daniel Berger at $8,500 is a good buy, his game has come along, was T-2nd at Phoenix, 12th at Genesis and T-25th at Cognizant after opening with a 63.  Shane Lowry at $8,200, is a player we watched in 2025.  He was 3rd at Bay Hill last year and is playing well right now, he was 2nd at Pebble and T-11th last week at the Cognizant.  Sepp Straka at $8,100 has been one of the hottest players in 2025, he won the American Express, was T-7th at Pebble and T-11th at Cognizant.  But buyer beware, Straka has struggled at Bay Hill, missing four cuts in five starts.  Matt Fitzpatrick is $7,700 and someone we must flip a coin over.  He has played well at Bay Hill and was runner-up in 2019, one of four top-ten finishes.  He hasn’t played great in 2025, but that is his M-O, in which he suddenly contends and wins after playing poorly.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Gosh, we picked clean the $7,500 to $8,900 price range. So, are there any bargains? Sahith Theegala at $7,400, is a good pick, he was T-6th last year at Bay Hill, his game has been slow in 2025, had his best finish a T-17th in his last start at the Genesis.  Thomas Detry is $7,200, and his only Bay Hill start was T-24th in 2023.  His year has been good, with a victory in Phoenix, and I expect him to play well.  Harris English at $6,600 is a good pick, he plays well on tough courses and has made the cut nine times in 12 Bay Hill starts including a runner-up in 2023.  Also watch Aldrich Potgieter at $6,500, yes he hits it long and sometimes not straight, playing at Bay Hill for the first time.  His game shined in Mexico when he lost the playoff to Brian Campbell, I still think he has the type of game he can play well on any course.  He is dirt cheap and should make the cut.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $6,500 is also cheap. He has a top ten at Bay Hill and has played well in 2025.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Key stat for the winner:

• This is the last tournament before the Players Championship, the most important PGA Tour event.  After that, the Masters is five weeks away.
• Kenny Perry had a perfect combination of being ranked fourth in driving distance and accuracy in 2005.  Look for accuracy to once again prevail and look for another player like Perry, who combines straight driving with a bit of length.  So, how do we determine a player like this?  Look at the total driving stat that combines distance and accuracy ranks to help determine your winner.  This year’s total driving stats are in our GOLFIQ stat section.  Players like Taylor Pendrith, and Daniel Berger are in the top ten.

Unimportant stat:

• Tiger Woods has won in eight of the last 25 years. So what does that mean?  Experience seems important in many tournaments, but not at Bay Hill.   Since 1979, 15 of the winners either became first-time winners or had only won once before, just like 2023 champion Kurt Kitayama and 2022 winner Scottie Scheffler.  Also, 2017 champion Marc Leishman claimed his second PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer.  Matt Every won for the first time at Bay Hill in 2014 (then prevailing for the second time in 2015), Martin Laird in 2011, Rod Pampling in 2006, and Chad Campbell in 2004.  But on the other side of the coin, the tournament has had some great players winning, like 2018 winner Rory McIlroy, 2016 champion Jason Day, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Ben Crenshaw, Fred Couples, Tom Kite, Paul Azinger, Payne Stewart, Fuzzy Zoeller and Tiger Woods.
• Birdies and patience are essential at Bay Hill. On most courses, the norm is making lots of birdies to keep pace, but at Bay Hill, pars are just as important.
• The odds are pretty good that the winner will be from either Florida or the Orlando area.  Of the 72 in the field this week, a quarter of the field live in Florida, with a half dozen or so having ties in the Orlando area.