BlogThe Players Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

How time flies fast. To think that just four years ago, golf was getting over COVID-19. At the time, Bryson DeChambeau was a big deal. Dustin Johnson was considered the best player in the world; the PGA Tour shocked the world by raising first place at the Players from $2.25 million to $4.5 million. Four years ago, Phil Mickelson was the most popular player active on Tour, and the thought of Scottie Scheffler as the world’s best player was absurd. Just two years ago, it would have been unthinkable to think Jon Rahm wouldn’t be playing in this championship.

But in the four years since, more people feel that Scheffler has a brighter future than Rahm, Johnson, Koepka, DeChambeau, or Mickelson. Again, the first-place check of $4.5 million awaits the winner of this week’s Players Championship. To show you how shocking that figure is, in 1998, the total purse of the Players Championship was $4 million ($500,000 less than the winner will get this week), with it going up to $5 million in 1999.

What a difference a year has brought

Last year at this time, Scottie Scheffler was on the verge of greatest. He had just won the Arnold Palmer and would win the Players Championship. This vaulted him to one of the greatest seasons on the PGA Tour since Tiger Woods. Including his Olympic and Hero World Challenge victories, Scheffler won nine times, including the Masters, and won the FedExCup.  Nine wins in 21 starts, he also had two runner-up finishes and 14 top-five finishes. In those 21 starts, he was only out of the top ten just three times, and his worst finish was a T-41st at the U.S. Open. If there was a dark part of Scheffler’s year after winning the Masters, he was going into the final round of the three other majors with very little chance of winning. Still, nobody complains when you think he won the Masters, the Players Championship, the Olympics, and the Tour Championship. On top of that, Scheffler won four of the eight signature events (Palmer, Heritage, Memorial & Travelers) and earned $30 million in his 21 starts. Now, if you pipe in all of the bonus money from the FedEx Cup Playoffs and Comcast Business Top 10, the final figure is $62 million. That is the most any golfer has won in a single year, and he was just $6 million short of the $68 million that Shohei Ohtani, the wealthiest athlete in the world, earned playing for the Dodgers last year.

Of course, Scheffler’s stats were off the chart, but the most important thing for him was that at Arnold Palmer, he found his putting touch, and it carried him for the year.

Now, things are not as rosy for Scheffler this year. Going into the Players last year, Scheffler had earnings of just a notch below 6.5 million. This year is drastically different, as he goes into the Players with earnings of just $2.25 million, as ten others. Twelve other players, including Michael Kim, Thomas Detry, and Maverick McNealy, have won more than Scottie.

This doesn’t mean Scheffler can’t find his putting stroke this week and rip through the rest of the year. It’s not like he has played poorly this year. He was T-3rd at the Genesis and has three top-11 finishes in four starts after starting the year on the injured list after cutting his hand while cooking Christmas dinner.

A dozen other players on Tour that week in and week out putt better than Scheffler. But none of these players have the same tee-to-green game, along with being able to get it up and down from off the green. So the big question for betters this week, can Scheffler win despite not putting great? Of course, he can. When he won the 2023 Players, he ranked 48th in Strokes Gained Putting and was 60th in putting inside ten feet, missing nine of 70 putts in that range. Even last year, when his putting was better, he won the Players ranked 37th in Strokes Gained Putting as he was T-23rd in Putting inside ten feet, missing six of 67 putts in that range.

Of course, Scheffler will remain the favorite this week, with Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele close behind him.

So, who do you want to keep out this week? We have talked all year about how poorly Viktor Hovland has been playing, and it’s not improving. Past Players champion Rickie Fowler, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, and Max Homa are also big no-nos.

Golf is a much different game now.

Gambling has become significant, and this week, for picking your pro players, choosing the right player is so important with such a high first-place prize. As for gamblers, The Players Championship is one of the most harrowing events for picking winners. Over time, the course has evolved into a masterpiece and a different course from year in and year out. In looking at the Players Championship, it’s hard to find anyone you can say is the right horse this week for the TPC Sawgrass. In the 42 times that the Players have played at TPC Sawgrass, only five have won it twice: Davis Love III, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Steve Elkington, Tiger Woods, and Scottie Scheffler. Of all the tournaments played for over 20 years on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship was the only non-fall, full-field event the defending champion had yet to win until Scheffler won back-to-back last year. Looking at the Players Championship field, it’s hard to pinpoint a horseplayer for this course, but can Scheffler go three in a row this week? I don’t think so.

To show how hard this event has been on every player, in looking at the 144 in the field this week (with 25 playing for the first time), the most top-tens is just four; Adam Scott, who has played in 22 Players, Rory McIlroy, who has played in 14 Players, Jason Day in 13 Players, Brian Harman in 12 Players and Hideki Matsuyama who has played in 9 Players and frankly he could be the favorite this week. Of those in the field, only two, which will surprise you, have three top-ten finishes: Si Woo Kim and Justin Rose. Of the 144 players in the Players, 108 have never finished in the top ten. This shows that there are only a few favorites based on past performance.

Give an example of how you can’t count anyone as a favorite. Rory McIlroy won in 2019, and when he was defending champion in 2021, he missed the cut. The same applies to Jason Day, who won the Players in 2016. He missed the cut the prior year, and in five previous visits to The Players before the win, he missed the cut three of the five years. Last year’s back-to-back winner, Scottie Scheffler, played twice before his victory; he was T-55th in 2022 and missed the cut in 2021. 2021 champion Justin Thomas had played in five previous Players and only had one top-ten, so you couldn’t say he was a “horse for the course.” Look at some of the best young players. 17th world-ranked Patrick Cantlay has played in seven Players and had his best finish, which was T-19th in 2023, but he missed the cut in his previous three starts. 3rd ranked Xander Schauffele finished T-2nd in his first start in 2018 but missed three cuts in a row before finishing T-19th in 2023 and runner-up again last year. Talking about top-ranked players globally, you can’t find a player with more honors than Justin Rose, who has won around the world, but in 19 starts at the Players, he has only three top-tens, the best being T-4th in 2014. He missed the cut last year

The list of 36 champions is awe-inspiring as many of the best golfers of the last 42 years have won the Players. Still, the TPC Sawgrass has this amazing aurora, and we can say that there has never been anyone or a set of golfers that have dominated at TPC Sawgrass. The term “Horses for Courses” is a gambling term used in golf, indicating those golfers who do their best on specific courses. Just look at Tiger Woods. He won nine times at Torrey Pines, eight times at Bay Hill and Firestone Country Club, and five times at Augusta National, Cog Hill, and Muirfield Village. Yes, he won The Players twice, but in 19 starts, he only has five top-tens and the two victories to show that even the best in the world has problems playing the course. He hasn’t played the Players since 2019, and I wonder if Woods is finished with this event.

Looking at the world’s best players, Jack Nicklaus played at TPC Sawgrass ten times and never finished higher than T-17th. Tiger Woods won twice and was runner-up in 2000. But in his other 16 starts, he only had two top-ten and just six top-20 finishes, which showed that Tiger might have won twice but had a lot of tough times at Sawgrass. The point is to show that the Players Championship is the hardest of all events to pick a winner. There is no Horse for this course, and even though some of the top names in golf, like Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Nick Price, Davis Love III, and Fred Couples have won, we have also seen players like Craig Perks, Si Woo Kim, Tim Clark, Fred Funk, and Stephen Ames win in the last 19 years.

Who is hot right now

Not many players can claim to be “hot” right now. Of course, we can say that Russell Henley is hot based on his Palmer victory, but after that, who do we have? We could say watch Sepp Straka, who leads the FedExCup point list. Along with his American Express win, he was T-11th at the Cognizant and T-5th at the Palmer. Justin Thomas is another to watch; after finishing 2nd at the American Express, he was T-6th at the Phoenix Open and T-9th at the Genesis. He finished T-36th at the Palmer but struggled over the weekend, shooting 74-76.  One of the best from the West Coast swing is Maverick McNealy, but after his runner-up at the Genesis, he missed the cut last week at the Palmer, shooting 80 in the second round. The hottest player is Michael Kim, who seems to get better each week. After missing the cut at the Sony and Farmers, he was T-2nd at Phoenix, T-13th at Genesis and Mexico, then T-6th at the Cognizant, and 4th last week at the Palmer. Each year, an unknown player seems to dominate the Player’s leaderboard. In 2023, Cam Davis shot 74 on Sunday to finish T-6th. In 2022, Anirban Lahiri hung tight and lost to Cameron Smith by a shot. Who could ever forget the saga of Len Mattiace, who, in 1998, was a shot back of Justin Leonard going into the 17th hole? He was an unknown pro whose mother, Joyce, was in a wheelchair in the final stages of cancer. But on the 17th tee, Mattiace hit it over the green and into the water; he got his third shot in a greenside bunker but skulled that shot into the water. Mattiace made a quintuple-bogey eight on the hole and finished T-5th.

These are all stories that are a part of the Player’s folklore

The season is a third over.

It may be early March, but we are playing the 12th of 39 events on Tour for the year. So it’s hard to believe the golf year is this far along. Over the next 25 weeks, along with this week’s Players, we have four majors to play, four more signature events, and three FedEx Cup playoffs, so I guess it’s easy to say this is the start of the massive events on the PGA Tour. But in a way, that isn’t true. In past years, the Players was the first time you could count all the best players in one spot. However, with four designated events played already, the Players is just another designated event, and we have seen the best play in four other events in the last ten weeks.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week, we have the crowning jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 51st edition, played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Besides the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf. In looking at the field over the last couple of years, only one other tournament in golf has gotten more top-100 ranked players, the PGA Championship. Thanks to LIV Golf, those days are probably finished, as the four majors will be the only place where all the best will be together for one event. We continue to see the importance of changing dates from May to March; this will be the sixth time in a row that the Players will be in March. But the course has had a lot of rain in the last couple of weeks, so tournament officials will need help getting a firm and fast course. One thing that is up is the rough; it will be the hardest in the event’s history. Things could be very interesting if the weather gets windy, which is in the forecast for the weekend. Since the course is just a mile from the ocean, we could have a very tough course this year. So look for high scores over the weekend, as the weather and wind will make it challenging.

It may take a lot of experience to win the Players. Since the event moved to the Stadium course, 20 different players in their 20s have won, including last year’s champion, Scottie Scheffler; 2022 champion, Cameron Smith; 2021 winner, Justin Thomas; 2019 champion, Rory McIlroy; 2017 champion, Si Woo Kim; 2016 champion Jason Day and 2015 winner Rickie Fowler. The list is impressive: Jerry Pate in 1982, Hal Sutton in 1983, Fred Couples in 1984, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Jodie Mudd in 1990, Steve Elkington in 1991, Davis Love III in 1992, Justin Leonard in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2001, Adam Scott in 2004, Sergio Garcia in 2008, Martin Kaymer in 2014, Fowler in 2015, Day in 2016, Kim in 2017 and Rory in 2019. I also bring up guys like Craig Perks, Fred Funk, Henrik Stenson, and Tim Clark, who have won so that anything can happen this week.

Course information:

• The Players Stadium Course
• Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.
• 7,352 yards     Par 36-36–72
• TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration Bermudagrass, while the rough is 419 Bermudagrass. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda with some poa in them, which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course played to a 72.45 average last year and was the 13th toughest course on the Tour.

Here is a look at how hard TPC Sawgrass has played over the years.

Rank compared to

Year  Scoring avg    other courses

2024       71.471                  15th

2023       72.449                13th

2022       72.619                 12th

2021       72.421                 16th

2019       71.513                 23rd

2018       71.409               29th

2017       73.289                5th

2016       72.055              19th

2015       72.083              18th

2014       72.155               25th

2013       72.323              19th

2012       72.466              19th

2011       72.000            23rd

2010       71.804            28th

2009       72.690            12th

2008       74.286             6th

2007       73.248           12th

2006       73.529           7th

2005       72.841           17th

2004       73.004          12th

2003       72.541           21st

2002       73.500          3rd

2001       73.536            3rd

2000       74.451          2nd

1999       74.642          3rd

1998       73.375           7th

The course opened in 1981 and hosted The Players Championship in 1982. That year, it was very “raw,” with many players complaining that the greens and landing areas had too much slope. Winds in the early days didn’t help ease the pain of the mounds, but over the years, improvements have made the course more “player-friendly.”

Over the years, the TPC Sawgrass has gone from a course the players only cared a little about to one of the most loved but most robust courses on Tour. With the advent of the Players moving to May, the course underwent an extensive renovation in 2007 in which all of the grass on the tees, fairways, and greens were stripped off with a new drainage and irrigation system placed underneath. The greens were built with a sub-air system like the one at Augusta National, which can control firmness in any weather conditions.

At the same time, 122 yards were added to the course, and the rough was Bermuda instead of rye.

All of this, plus the new clubhouse, gave the Players a new dimension, making it one of the best tournaments in the world. It may even be considered a major one day.

A couple of things to know: The average green size is 5,500, which is small and makes the targets harder. Small greens emphasize shotmaking more, but you must help get it up and down. Water is on all 18 holes, but it comes into play on 11 holes for the pros. There are 92 bunkers around the course, along with many waste areas in the fairways.

Two other things: In 2018 and 2017, the course played to a yardage of 7,189, which is 26 yards shorter than in 2016 before the 12th hole was changed.

Three years ago, the course went back over 7,200 yards, and 19 yards were added to the 9th hole, making it a 602-yard par 5.

In the last year, the course has seen a lot of changes, with 77 yards added.

A look at the winners of the Players at TPC Sawgrass:

36 have won the 42 Players Championship since the event moved to its permanent home of TPC Sawgrass. Of those 36 champions, they have.

• *Played in 16,543 PGA Tour events in their careers
• *Won a total of $1,232,375,987. Yes, over a billion dollars have been won by the 36 winners
• *With a total of $85.3 million being won at the Players
• *The 36 have won a total of 486 times on the PGA Tour
• *While 22 of the 36 won a total of 54 major championships
• *Seven of the 36 are members of the World Golf Hall of Fame
• *Eleven of the 36 winners spent a total of 1,423 weeks as world number one.
• (Woods 683 weeks, Greg Norman 311, Rory McIlroy 122, Scottie Scheffler 157, Jason Day 51, Nick Price 44, Fred Couples 16, David Duval 15, Adam Scott 11, Martin Kaymer 8, and Justin Thomas 5 weeks)
• *Of the players’ winners, only two won their first event at the Players, Craig Perks and Tim Clark. For Perks, it was his only win on the PGA Tour, while Clark won again four years later.
• *Of the 36 winners, these nine did it on their second start: Adam Scott, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, Stephen Ames, Steve Elkington and Si Woo Kim.
• *Only four made the Players their last PGA Tour victory: Jerry Pate, Craig Perks, K.J. Choi, and Justin Thomas.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Sawgrass.

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Sawgrass, data from last year’s Players Championship, and data from all in the field at the Players with stats from 2025. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
In 2019, the Players Championship returned to its March date, thinking the course would have more bite with March winds. When it was played in May, the course played differently due to the heat, but mainly because of the lack of winds. Between 2013 and 2018, the course only played tough once; in 2017, all four days saw the wind blowing 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph over the weekend. The course played to a 73.29 average and was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The following year, in 2018, a combination of low winds, thunderstorms, and rain helped make the course play to a 71.41 scoring average, the easiest it has ever played. So it was essential to change dates, and even though they did change dates in 2019 and saw winds in the 8 to 20 mph area each day, the scoring was still low, with the average being 71.51, which ranked T-23rd.
Still, the weather and wind are two of the things that make TPC Sawgrass unique. It’s about a mile from the Atlantic, and if the wind blows, it plays tough. When course architect Pete Dye was still alive, he said many times over the last 40 years of his life that he kept in the back of his mind in designing the holes in the March winds. Each hole is challenging with water on everyone, but water becomes a hazard on 12 holes, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9,11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, and 18. Bunkering is also challenging, along with chipping, as most of the greens are raised, so a shot missing a green is an adventure getting it up and down.
Between the first year, it was played at TPC Sawgrass in 1982, and its last year with a March date in 2006, it always seemed harsh due to higher winds and cooler weather. When the dates changed from 2007 to May, winds decreased and became much warmer. The change of dates made the event play easier because of the lack of wind. So when the tournament returned in March 2019, we had already seen drastically different conditions. In looking at the long-range forecast for this week, we know that weather will be a factor this year. Thursday and Friday will be perfect, with temperatures of 73. But things will change for the weekend as temperatures will go up to close to 80 and winds of 20 mph. On Sunday late afternoon, Thunderstorms will also plague players.

So look for much of what happened at the Palmer, with a winning score in the six to ten under range.
Some changes have been made to the course for this year’s Players Championship. The most significant change is that 77 yards have been added to the course, which will be played at 7,352 yards. The rough was also overseeded this winter with the goal to get the rough up to 4 inches and up to 3.5 inches. Some other changes made for this year: a new tee to the par 5 second hole adds 23 yards, making it play at 555 yards. At the sixth hole, a tree just off the tee, forcing players to hit it low, blew down in 2014. For this year, the iconic tree is back, and 20 yards have been added, making the hole 413 yards, so again, players will have to take care of their tee shots. A new tee to the par 5 11th adds 15 yards, making it play at 573 yards. The par-4 14th now features stronger, deeper, and more dramatic moguls with additions of palms, oaks, and native grasses to the right rough with four yards added, making it play 483 yards. The par 5 16th hole has 14 yards added and now plays at 537 yards. So, since 2019, 70 yards have been added on just the par 5s.

Last year, the Players Championship field’s scoring average was 71.47, and it was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 50 courses charted in 2024.

Here is a look at the scoring average at TPC Sawgrass for the last few years:
*2023 – Average was 72.45, was the 13th hardest of the 58 courses that year
*2022 – Average was 72.62, was the 12th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 72.42, it was the 16th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – The event wasn’t played due to Covid
*2019 – Average was 71.51, was T-23rd hardest of 49 courses that year

Still, how much did the date change affect the course’s play? The winners have been consistent, as hitting greens has been important for most years.
Between 1997 and 2006, seven of the ten winners were in the top ten in greens hit, with four leading that stat.
Since the change to May, six of the 12 winners have been in the top ten, with only one, Sergio Garcia, leading in greens hit. In 2018, Webb Simpson was T-5th, but most of the time, on the May dates, it wasn’t that important.
With the change to March in 2019, Rory McIlroy was T-3rd, hitting 58 of 72 greens.
In 2021, Justin Thomas was T-17th, hitting 52 of 72 greens.
In 2022, Cameron Smith had a tough time, only hitting 45 of 72 greens and ranking T-52nd.
In 2023, Scottie Scheffler was 1st hitting 54 of the 72 greens.
Last year, Scottie Scheffler was T-3rd, hitting 55 of the 72 greens.

After playing at TPC Sawgrass 42 times, there have been a lot of changes and refinements to the course. Most players agree that the course is one of the best, most challenging, and fairest courses played on Tour. In talking about those who have won at the Players, it’s interesting to note that the new breed of winners, those at the top of the world rankings, struggle at the Players. Of the top ten, only Scottie Scheffler, #2 Rory McIlroy, and #9 Justin Thomas have won at TPC Sawgrass. Here is what has happened to all ten in the World Rankings:

To win, you have to be a great ball striker and also be able to putt.
In our four categories, we have seen Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as very important. The stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for TPC Sawgrass over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. Last year the course ranked 11th in driving distance on all holes, 26th in driving accuracy, and 16th in greens hit. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Scottie Scheffler ranked 5th in driving distance, averaging 293.2 yards per drive on all holes (out of 50 courses). He was T-18th in Driving Accuracy hit, and 1st in greens hit. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Scheffler was 1st, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 5th.

Here is a look at Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green for the Players Championship by looking at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit for the winners in the last few years:
2023 – The course ranked 8th in driving distance with an average drive of 283.9 yards (out of 58 courses), 31st in driving accuracy, and 9th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 5th in driving distance all holes, averaging 293.2 yards per drive, T-18th in Driving accuracy, hitting 38 of 54 fairways, and 1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 54 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 5th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee.
2022 – The course ranked 4th in driving distance with an average drive of 277.6 yards (out of 50 courses), 21st in driving accuracy, and 22nd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Cameron Smith was 21st in driving distance all holes, averaging 298.1 yards per drive, 70th in Driving accuracy, hitting 24 of 54 fairways, and T-52nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 45 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 68th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. (Terrible stats for the winner, but he made up with supreme putting stats)
2021 – The course ranked 10th in driving distance with an average drive of 283.8 yards (out of 50 courses), 24th in driving accuracy, and 27th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Justin Thomas was 3rd in driving distance all holes, averaging 295.9 yards per drive, T-32nd in Driving accuracy, hitting 44 of 54 fairways, and T-17th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 52 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked T-15th in driving distance with an average drive of 284.3 yards (out of 50 courses), 25th in driving accuracy, and 35th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Rory McIlroy was T-4th in driving distance all holes, averaging 295.8 yards per drive, T-49th in Driving accuracy, hitting 33 of 54 fairways, and T-3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 58 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
Going further, in 2018, Webb Simpson was 16th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In 2017, Si Woo Kim was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green in his win.
In 2016, Jason Day was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In 2015, Rickie Fowler ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In 2014, winner Martin Kaymer was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
While 2013 champion Tiger Woods was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
So you can see that Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is very important in winning at the Players, as proven by the fact that eight of the last ten winners, other than Smith and Simpson, finished no higher than 5th, with Scheffler in 2023, Thomas in 2021, McIlroy in 2019, and Woods in 2013 all ranking 1st.

The next important stat is Proximity to hole.
In our ranking, hitting greens is one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 16th in greens in regulation, again reflecting how hard-hitting greens at TPC Sawgrass are. Still, for the previous 20 years, 14 of the winners have been in the top 15 in greens hit; taking it a step further, those same champions, 12 of them finished in the top five with ten in the top 3, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship.
Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, hit 55 of 72 greens and ranked T-3rd in his one-shot victory. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 10th as the field averaged 40 feet from the hole. Last year’s winner, Scheffler, ranked 19th and averaged 34 feet, 11 inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with Proximity to hole for the The Players Championship, winners the last few years:
2023 – The course ranked 9th in Greens in Regulation (out of 58 courses) and 10th Proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and no inches.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 1st in Greens in Regulation hitting 54 of 72 holes and T-17th in Proximity to hole, averaging 36 feet and nine inches.
2022 – The course ranked 22nd in Greens in Regulation (out of 50 courses) and T-9th Proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and no inches.
Winner Cameron Smith was T-52nd in Greens in Regulation and T-11th in Proximity to hole, averaging 34 feet and seven inches.
2021 – The course ranked 27th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and T-9th in Proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and no inches.
Winner Justin Thomas was T-17th in Greens in Regulation and T-8th in Proximity to hole, averaging 35 feet and seven inches.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked 24th in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and T-6th in Proximity to hole, averaging 38 feet and 11 inches.
Winner Rory McIlroy was T-3rd in Greens in Regulation and 11th in Proximity to hole, averaging 35 feet and three inches. So we can see how tough it is on TPC Sawgrass.

Our third important stat is scrambling since the course is a shot-maker delight. You can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you had better get it up and down to play well. Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 14th in scrambling out of 47 courses, getting it up and down 56.05% of the time. Winner Scheffler was ranked 8th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 17 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling of The Players Championship, winners the last few years:
2022 – TPC Sawgrass finished 13th in scrambling, getting it up and down 55.98% of the time
Winner Scottie Scheffler was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 18 greens he missed.
2022 – TPC Sawgrass finished 12th in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.92% of the time
Winner Cameron Smith was ranked T-22nd, getting it up and down in 17 of the 27 greens he missed.
2021 – TPC Sawgrass finished 6th in scrambling, getting it up and down 52.19% of the time
Winner Justin Thomas was ranked 14th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 20 greens he missed.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – TPC Sawgrass finished 8th in scrambling, getting it up and down 55.08% of the time
Winner Rory McIlroy was ranked T-40th, getting it up and down in 8 of the 14 greens he missed.
So, the winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Our final stat is vital: Strokes Gained Putting.
We picked this stat because most past Players’ winners are notoriously good putters, but poor putting has won the Players. Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 33rd in Putting average, 33rd in One-Putt Percentage, 24th in three-putt Avoidance, and 20th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.14% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, ranked 37th in Putting Average, T-49th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-23rd in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 67 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 37th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .307 shots. Have to say, for Scottie, this was a good week in putting.

Here is a look at the putting stats of the TPC Sawgrass and The Players Championship winners in the last few years:
2023 – TPC Sawgrass ranked 45th in Putting Average, 51st in One-Putt Percentage, 28th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and T-28th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 86.34% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Scottie Scheffler ranked 34th in Putting average, T-70th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in three-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 61 out of 70 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, Scottie was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots to show that you don’t have to putt great to win The Players.
2022 – TPC Sawgrass ranked 11th in Putting Average, 14th in One-Putt Percentage, 5th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 13th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.68% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Cameron Smith, who is one of the best putters in golf, ranked first in Putting average, first in One-Putt Percentage, T-5th in three-putt Avoidance, and 12th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 60 out of 65 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, it’s no big surprise that he was first in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining a whopping 11.521 shots.
2021 – TPC Sawgrass ranked 10th in Putting Average, 7th in One-Putt Percentage, 9th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 12th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.26% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Justin Thomas ranked T-14th in Putting average, T-7th in One-Putt Percentage, T-25th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 21st in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 66 out of 73 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 42nd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.632 shots Gained.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – TPC Sawgrass ranked T-23rd in Putting Average, 18th in One-Putt Percentage, 14th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 7th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 86.75% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Rory McIlroy ranked 9th in Putting average, T-42nd in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-61st in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 65 out of 76 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 45th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.632 shots.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important last year TPC Sawgrass ranked 16th, but in proximity to the hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Sawgrass ranked 17th as the players averaged hitting it 37 feet, 6 inches away from the hole.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The greens average 5,500 square feet at TPC Sawgrass, so if you hit the green, you won’t have a long putt. So, with shots ending up on the green, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall, putting stats ranked TPC Sawgrass as the 22nd hardest in putts made in 2024, with the field making an average of 73 feet, five inches of putts made. In looking at one putting, it ranked 33rd hardest to one putt as 40.94 one putts were made. In 3-Putt Avoidance, the course was in the middle as it ranked 24th, with 275 three putts last year.

Here are the 141 of 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2025:

Please note that Xander Schauffele has been out due to a rib injury, so we use his 2004 stat rankings.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

#	Name	*Strokes Gained tee-to-green	*Proximity to hole	*Scrambling	*Strokes Gained Putting	Total Rank All Categories	DraftKings Salary
1	Collin Morikawa (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	1	1	9	43	54	10500
2	Shane Lowry (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	14	3	24	54	95	9100
3	Hideki Matsuyama (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	10	43	1	56	110	9900
4	Scottie Scheffler (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	2	19	5	93	119	12800
5	Daniel Berger (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	12	19	13	76	120	9600
6	Alex Smalley (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	6	79	14	28	127	5400
7	Russell Henley (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	20	6	87	14	127	9500
8	Sepp Straka (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	11	4	66	50	131	8600
9	Michael Kim (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	5	62	4	82	153	5900
10	Kevin Roy (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	40	16	6	96	158	5700

 

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2024 season and going through the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational and Puerto Rico, a total of 45 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least eight events:

 

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,800
• Rory McIlroy – $11,500
• Xander Schauffele – $11,100
• Collin Morikawa – $10,500
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,200
• Justin Thomas – 10,100
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,000
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,900
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,800
• SungJae Im – $9,700
• David Berger – $9,600
• Russell Henley – $9,500
• Wyndham Clark – $9,400
• Sam Burns – $9,300
• Tony Finau – $9,200
• Shane Lowry – $9,100
• Viktor Hovland – $9,000

Remember what I told you before: there are no real favorites at the Players, and this is a tournament that is hard to gauge since there are no “horses for courses.”  Making things even harder, the course will be firme despite all the rain in the last few weeks.  But winds will be a factor over the weekend. The strategy should be to go low and not get caught up with many high-paying players. Also, you have to pick six players who will make the cut. In all cases, that is very hard.

One thing that we need to see first is Scottie Scheffler, which is $12,800, which is a lot of money. You pick him, and you only have $37,200 left over, which leaves us with only $7,440 for each of the other five players. So, if you take Scheffler, you cannot pick another player over $9,000. This week, 17 players are $9,000 and over, the most I have ever seen. So this week, the rules are a lot tougher for taking marquee guys. Let’s look at this differently. First, Scottie Scheffler is the best in DraftKings; he averages 106.2 points per event, which is awesome. Scheffler is the biggest favorite this week, so if you don’t take Scheffler and he wins or finishes 2nd, you will have a tough time winning anything since between 40 and 50% of the players will pick Scheffler. So frankly, you may have to play in more than one game and, say, pick him in two and not in the other two. So yes, he is a good pick, but he leaves you with few options. After that, I can also see Rory McIlroy at $11,500, Colin Morikawa at $10,500, Justin Thomas at 10,100, and Ludvig Aberg at $10,200. All four could win, but will all four play well this week?  I say yes. So, with their high prices, I may take McIlroy, not Scheffler. Xander Schauffele at $11,100 is a choice, I was impressed at how he played last week after an opening round of 77, still I don’t think he is ready to win this week.  Collin Morikawa at $10,500, played well last week and could have won, but Henley was better in the last three holes.  Still, I am not taking him due to his poor record at TPC Sawgrass.  Ludvig Aberg at $10,200 is a great choice, he finished T-8th last year in his rookie trip and he didn’t play that bad at the Palmer.  This course is right up his alley.  As for Justin Thomas at 10,100, yes, he has won at the Players in 2021 but hasn’t played well since.  I still think his game is ready for a big win.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,000 is a big no, he has never been able to play at TPC Sawgrass.  A great pick is Hideki Matsuyama at $9,900.  He has played well since the summer and, more importantly, is healthy.  Of anyone in the field besides Scheffler, he has played the best with four top-tens in nine starts.  He was T-6th last year and 5th in 2023, I can see him winning this.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,800 is someone to consider, you know he won’t win but can get you a top five finish.  Yes, he has struggled on TPC Sawgrass the last five years, but still, he can pop up, considering how well he has played in 2025, including a T-5th at Genesis.  Sungjae Im at $9,700, has had good times at the Players, but still, he has not shown worth a pick this year.  David Berger at $9,600, has played well in 2025 and at Sawgrass, but his price is too high for me.  Russell Henley at $9,500 is a no for me because I can’t see lightning striking two straight weeks, but I am not taking him because of his poor record at Sawgrass.  Wyndham Clark at $9,400 is a thought; he played well last year, finishing T-2nd, and has been close in 2025. He could surprise us, but I say no to him.  Sam Burns at $9,300 is a no; he has not played well at the Players and hasn’t played well since his T-8th at The Sentry.  The same goes for Tony Finau at $9,200; he never played well at the Players and has not shown us much besides his 5th at the Genesis.  Shane Lowry at $9,100 is a possibility, he has had a great year and seems to stick around on Sunday, only a matter of time when things work out.  Viktor Hovland at $9,000 has me asking how he could be priced this high.  Even if he was $7,000 I would say no to him.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament. Picking six players who play 72 holes is vital to playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help. It’s a look at the 2010 Players Championship to see who has made the most cuts. Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful. To get on this list, you have to make at least four Players starts:

• Tom Hoge made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Denny McCarty made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Justin Thomas made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.8%. His DraftKings cost is 10,100.
• Si Woo Kim made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%. His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Tommy Fleetwood made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%. His DraftKings cost is 9,800.
• Keith Mitchell made 5 cuts in 6 starts for an 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.7%. His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Brian Harman made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Jason Day made 9 cuts in 13 starts for a 69.2%. His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Adam Scott made 18 cuts in 22 starts for an 66.6%. His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Justin Rose made 11 cuts in 19 starts for a 66.6%. His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Shane Lowry made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.6%. His DraftKings cost is 9,100.
• Keegan Bradley made 8 cuts in 13 starts for a 61.5%. His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Rory McIlroy made 8 cuts in 14 starts for a 57.1%. His DraftKings cost is 11,500.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Jordan Spieth at $8,800 is a thought, as he will show us in which direction his game is going this week.  That, he was T-9th last week at Cognizant and has struggled at the Players, but I think this will be a good week.  Sepp Straka at $8,600, is a good pick; they played ok at Sawgrass but have played great in 2025, including T-11th at Cognizant and T-5th at Palmer.  Jason Day at $8,100 is back with his old instructor and got good results at the Palmer, he knows how to play at Sawgrass and think he will be great this week.  Corey Conners at $7,900 is a great price for a player who will make the cut and do well this week.  Adam Scott at $7,800, is a good player who will make the cut and is cheap.  Keegan Bradley at $7,700 is another great player at a cheap price, played well last Sunday at the Palmer and has had his moments at The Players.  Denny McCarthy at $7,700, is another reliable player at the right price, he has made five cuts in five Players starts.  Brian Harman at $7,600 is one of those players you never know when he will put everything together and finish T-2nd like he did last year.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $7,500 is one of those players that can play well at Sawgrass and surprise us all.

Are there any “Bargains” at the Players Championship?

Yes, there are, and the most significant, I like Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,100.  He plays well at the Players, was T-13th the last two years, and has played consistently in 2025.  Justin Rose at $6,300 is a steal for a player with a good record at TPC Sawgrass and was T-3rd at Pebble and T-8th at the Palmer.  Tom Hoge at $6,100 is a bargain for a player who has made 5 of 5 Players cut and played ok in 2025.  It’s cheap for a guy who will be around four rounds.  Michael Kim is $5,900, which is a steal when you consider how well he has played with five T-13th finishes, including T-2nd at Phoenix, T-6th at Cognizant, and 4th at the Palmer.  The bad news is that he has missed three of four cuts at the Players, but I still think he can rise above that.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at The Players Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

Craig Perks blew the greatest stat the tournament had going for with his win in 2002. Before his victory, nobody had ever won the Players without a win on the PGA Tour. On top of that, since 1982, when the Players switched to the Stadium course, there have been 36 different winners, with 22 winning 54 major championships. Still, the cream always rises to the top if the course is dry and firm without rain hampering it. But that will be different, so look for someone who may have struggled in the past to shine this week, someone like Keegan Bradley, Michael Kim or Tom Hoge.

Look at the list of champions at TPC Sawgrass: Scheffler, Thomas, Sutton, Couples, Kite, Love, Norman, Leonard, Garcia, Duval, Mickelson, Day, McIlroy, and Woods. It’s not a bad list. But the one thing they have in common is firm and fast conditions, so what do we expect if that probably won’t happen?

The Tour has had marquee winners like Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and Russell Henley, but we have also had some really off-the-wall players like Brian Campbell, Joe Highsmith, and Karl Vilipps.

Craig Perks has some company as Tim Clark became the second player to win for the first time at the Players Championship. Talking about weird winners, 2017 champion Si Woo Kim also goes down in the annals of the Players as a long-shot winner. He became the youngest winner at 21 years, 10 months, and 16 days, and he only had 61 career PGA Tour starts, the 2nd least of anyone to win the Players (Henrik Stenson won on his 44th PGA Tour career start). In his winning year, the weather saw four days of winds up to 20 mph. Also, remember one of the worst weather weeks the Players had ever seen in 2005; it was terrible that the tournament finished on Monday with Fred Funk winning. If the weather is terrible for a non-marquee winner, this may open the door.

Useless stat:

One of the most significant oddities of The Players Championship is that nobody has ever repeated as champion until last year with Scottie Scheffler.  So, could we be on the cusp of a three-peat with Scottie?

Seven players have won this event multiple times (including all years), but none in consecutive years. Nicklaus is the only three-time winner (1974, 1976, 1978). Two-time winners include Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Fred Couples (1984, 1996), Davis Love III (1992, 2003), and Scheffler. There have only been six multiple winners since it moved to TPC Sawgrass.

The most unusual winner of the Players has to be Sandy Lyle, who won in a playoff in 1987. It is remarkable because of his 13 starts; he only made three cuts: his win in 1987, a T74th in 1994, and a T70th in 1997. Craig Perks only made two cuts in six tries, but after winning the 2002 Players, he finished T17th the following year. Also, I must add the 2016 winner, Jason Day, to this list. In five tries before he won, he missed the cut three times.

So what does it take to win at the Players?

• Going back to 2000, every winner but nine have been in the top 10 of greens hit category, and six of them have led (Scottie Scheffler-2023, Sergio Garcia-2008, Stephen Ames-2006, Fred Funk-2005, Adam Scott-2004, Hal Sutton 2000). In 2012, Matt Kuchar was T3rd in hitting 53 of the 72 greens; in 2013, Tiger Woods was also T3rd in hitting 55 of 72 greens. In 2014, Martin Kaymer also finished 3rd, hitting 54 of 72 greens. In 2015, Rickie Fowler had the worst greens-hit performance of any champion in 1997; he hit only 45 of 72 greens and ranked T-51st. In 2016 Jason Day hit 52 of 72 greens and ranked T-15th; in 2017, Si Woo Kim hit 45 of 72 greens (the least of any champion since 1997) and ranked T-37th. In 2018, Webb Simpson hit 55 of 72 greens and was T-5th; in 2019, Rory McIlroy hit 58 of 72 greens and was T-3rd. In 2021, Justin Thomas hit 52 of 72 greens and was T-17th, while Cameron Smith hit 45 of 72 greens in 2023 and ranked the worst of all the champions at T-52nd.  Scottie Scheffler regained the #1 title in greens hit lin 2023 with 54 of 72 greens hit.  Last year, he was T-3rd, hitting 55 of 72 greens.
• Great putting is a must for the week. The greens are always tricky and fast; historically, players have needed help making putts inside of ten feet. Looking at the rankings last year, TPC Sawgrass was the 20th hardest course in making putts inside ten feet TPC Sawgrass, with an average of 88.14%.  The year before it was T-28th hardest course in making putts inside ten feet, with an average of 88.34%. In 2022, it was the 15th hardest course in making putts inside ten feet, with an average of 87.68%. In 2021, it was T-23rd hardest course in making putts inside ten feet, with an average of 86.75%. In 2018, it was ranked T-14th hardest course with an average of 87.02%. In the past, the number of putts hasn’t been the key, as between 2004 and 2010, nobody was in the top ten in the number of putts made. K.J. Choi broke that streak, finishing T6th in 2011 with only 108 putts, while Kuchar was T5th in 2012 with 110 putts. In 2013, Tiger Woods was T35th, taking 114 putts; in 2014, Martin Kaymer also took 114 putts, ranking T38th. In 2015, Rickie Fowler was T-2nd, taking only 106 putts; in 2016, Jason Day was T-3rd, taking just 107 putts. In 2017, Si Woo Kim kept the streak going as his 108 putts ranked T-3rd, and in 2018, Webb Simpson also had 108 putts, which ranked T-4th. In 2019, Rory McIlroy had 116 putts, which ranked T-43rd. In 2021 Justin Thomas had 112 putts and ranked T-8th, while last year, Cameron Smith putted lights out with only 101 putts to lead that stat and have the lowest putts of any champion going back to 1997. The opposite happened in 2023 when Scottie Scheffler ranked 34th in Putting Average, T-70th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 70 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots.
• Last year, Scheffler ranked 18th in Putting Average, T-49th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-23rd in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 67 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 37th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .307 shots.
• Scrambling is essential; no matter how well a player does, he will still miss greens and have to be able to get it up and down to win. Winner Scheffler was ranked 8th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 17 greens he missed. Last year, it was the 14th hardest on the PGA Tour, with the field averaging getting it up and down 56.05% of the time.  In 2023 winner Scheffler was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 18 greens he missed. in 2023, it was the 13th hardest on the PGA Tour, with the field averaging getting it up and down 55.99% of the time. The previous year, 2022, was the  12th hardest on the PGA Tour, with a field average of 53.92. Winner Cameron Smith was T-22nd in scrambling; Smith got it up and down 18 of the 27 greens he missed. In 2021, TPC Sawgrass was the 6th hardest, with a field average of 52.19. Justin Thomas was 14th last year, getting it up and down 13 of 20 greens missed. In 2019, TPC Sawgrass was the 8th hardest course to get up and down, as the field averaged 55.08 in getting it up and down. McIlory finished T-40th in scrambling. In 2018, it was the 7th hardest course to get it up and down as the field averaged getting it up and down 53.013%, with Webb Simpson finishing 24th. But in 2017, SiWoo Kim and Jason Day in 2016 leading the scrambling stat, getting it up and down 81.48 for Kim and 85% for Day. There are a lot of tough chips on this course, and it will take a lot of chips and runs instead of pitching it in the air.
• Lastly, the last three holes are the most talked about holes in golf. They all represent their challenges, problems, and drama, as water plays a prominent role. Between 2003 and 2022, 2,434 balls have gotten wet on the three holes; compare this to holes 1 through 15, which have had a total of 2,376 balls in the water. The 17th has the most with 932; the 18th has seen 872 go in the water, while the 16th has seen 626 balls in the water. So, in doing the math, these three holes have been played 8,299 times, with 2,434 in the water, which is a 29.3% average. So the chances of getting your ball wet on those holes in any given round are a shade under 3 in 10. In 2005 & ’07, 50 balls went into the water on the 17th hole, the most of any year since 2003.