BlogValspar Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So, a lot happened last week at the Players.  First, we are seeing a resurgence of Rory McIlroy at the Players.  He has always been a top player since he joined the PGA Tour in 2009.  In those years, he has never finished about 58th in the FedExCup standings and has been in the top ten, eight of his 14 years a member.  Since 2010, he has won a PGA Tour event in 14 of his 16 years on tour.  Sure, players like Tiger Woods, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, and Phil Mickelson have stolen some of his thunder. Still, McIlroy is probably the most consistent player in the last decade.  What really has surprised me about Rory is how many tournaments he has let slip through his fingers.  A perfect example was how McIlroy didn’t take care of business on the last three holes at Pinehurst, losing the U.S. Open.  But of all his sins, winning the Masters is probably his biggest.  In 16 Masters starts, he has let five Masters, which he was in contention for on the final nine holes, slip his grasp.  Of course, everyone points out the stat that Rory has not won a major since the 2014 PGA Championship, and as each year goes by, it gets harder and harder to accomplish.  Since 2022, McIlroy has played in 12 majors, finishing 2nd three times, finishing 3rd once, and in the top ten eight times, and we have been disappointed as each year goes by.  At age 35 his game is as good as it ever has been, but he can’t get over that hump to win that next major.  At Pinehurst, he missed short putts at 16 and 18 to lose to Bryson DeChambeau, and when he missed the cut at the British Open, many wondered if he has had enough.

But that isn’t the case; Rory is even more determined to win another major and is pointing towards this year’s Masters.  On the PGA and DP World Tours, he has won 39 times.  Of the 28 PGA Tour wins, 21 of them have come between April and September.  He has won four times in Florida in March, but the point is Rory has never been as successful in the first three months of his PGA Tour career until now.  After winning the Players, he told the media he would play one more time before the Masters but hadn’t decided if it would be next week in Houston or the week after in San Antonia.  So it’s interesting to see all of the stars aligning, and we can’t wait to see what he will do.

As for Rory, he is one of the hottest players in golf right now, along with Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, and Justin Thomas.  A couple of players I am watching in the next couple of weeks are Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Smalley, and Lucas Glover, who will be playing at Valspar this week.  Some people to avoid are Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Eric Cole, Nico Echavarria, and defending champion Peter Malnati.

About this week at Valspar, many of the top players in the field played well at the Players. After finishing T-3rd at the Players, Lucas Glover will play the Valspar.  Danny Walker, who had very little status on the PGA Tour, got into the Players on Thursday morning, just an hour and a half before his time, courtesy of Jason Day withdrawing.  He made the best of it, finishing T-6th and earning $843,750.  Going into the Players, he had only played in five PGA Tour events with earnings of just under $180,000. So with his great finish, he is over a million dollars and will get into more events for the rest of the Year, playing this week.  Bud Cauley also finished T-6th and is playing at Valspar.  With his great finish he earns an exemption on the PGA Tour for the remainder of the 2025 season by reaching the top 125 threshold via the Major Medical category.  Another T-6th was Corey Conners, and he will be one of the favorites at Valspar.

Things you need to know about the Valspar Championship

This will be the 24th Valspar Championship, the first played in 2000. The Valspar was the first full-field PGA Tour event held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open, which was played between 1930 and 1964.

The tournament was formally called the Tampa Bay Classic and then changed in 2003 to the Chrysler Championship.  Chrysler dropped out in 2006, and PODS took over sponsorship and got an added boost with the advent of the FedEx Cup series and the transfer of the Players Championship to May.  So in 2007, just six months after the close of the 2006 event, the tournament moved into its new March date. But that didn’t last long, as with a change of management at PODS; they left after the 2008 event.   The power of the PGA Tour shined through as Transitions Lens, an optical lens manufacturing company headquartered in the Tampa Bay area, came to the rescue with a four-year deal. Unfortunately, that deal ended after the 2012 event.  They got EverBank to write off some of the expenses in 2013, but for 2014, they got their sixth and present sponsor, Valspar, a company that is a paint and coatings manufacturer.  The 2001 event didn’t happen because of the 9/11 tragedy.

When the tournament first started in 2000, it was the first time that a full PGA Tour event was held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open,  held between 1930 and 1964.  The course was the home of the mixed-event JCPenney Classic, which ended in 1999.

Now, the event doesn’t have much history, which is a problem for attracting a great field.  But the Innisbrook Copperhead course is a hidden gem on the PGA Tour and one that gets players’ attention.  Accuracy is more of a premium at Copperhead than length.  This course can’t be overpowered like many other courses.

Course information:

• Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
• Palm Harbor, Fl.
• 7,340 yards     Par 36-35–71

The course has a 76.8 rating and a slope rating of 144 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those who stay there.  It also sells local memberships.

The course has 63 bunkers and eight water hazards, of which six holes have water in play for the professionals.

Larry Packard designed the Copperhead course, which opened in 1974.  It was restored in 1999, two years after Westin Inc. purchased it. The goal of the restoration project was to regain the shot values and still challenge today’s longer-hitting PGA Tour players when Innisbrook hosts PGA Tour events. The plan involved refurbishing all 18 greens, restructuring many of the bunkers, removing some trees around the greens to improve air movement and sunlight, and clearing out undergrowth between fairways. The length of the golf course is the most visible change from 7,087 to 7,230 yards by the addition of tournament tees on five holes.  Since then, minor renovations have added another 110 yards to the course, bringing the final yardage to 7,340.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Copperhead Course:

This is based on the most important stats for Cooperhead Course, data from the 2024 Valspar Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from this year. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
Is anybody else as excited about the Players Championship as I was? It produced a last-day shootout between “David and Goliath,” which spilled to a Monday playoff. The odds were overwhelming in that playoff that Rory McIlroy would beat J.J. Spaun. Still we have seen these stories before, at the 2020 Shriners Kevin Na beat Patrick Cantlay. How about Tyler Duncan beating Webb Simpson at the 2019 RSM. Even Tiger lost the 1998 Genesis playoff to Billy Mayfair.
For Rory, it sets up a possible run at the Masters. His only major missing would make him the sixth person to win all four major championships.
In the history of the Players, only two players have won a Players and Masters in the same year. They were Tiger Woods in 2001 and Scottie Scheffler last year. As for Rory, it’s the first time he has gone into a Masters with two PGA Tour victories. Taking Rory’s streak of wins a step further, he won the DP World Championship in November, winning three times in his last six starts. So, does this spell a lot of excitement in the coming weeks going into the Masters? Absolutely.
From day one in 2000, the Copperhead course has the reputation of being a fantastic, fair course that many of the players enjoy. You can’t overpower the Copperhead course, and by no coincidence, players that hit it long usually take this week off. So, the course demands hitting fairways and avoiding the rough. Another key to the course is the greens. They are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour because of the grain on the greens. Last year, the field finished T-40th in overall putting average (out of 47 courses), with only six courses having more challenging greens to putt, meaning players can make putts on this course. Last Year’s winner, Peter Malnati, was 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting. In 2023, winner Taylor Moore was 9th in Strokes Gained putting, while 2022 winner Sam Burns was 8th in Strokes Gained putting, so good putting is critical. Some other great putters that have won the Valspar include Jordan Spieth, Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, and 2022 winner Sam Burns.
The Copperhead course field’s scoring average was 71.41, and it was the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 50 courses charted in 2024.

Here is a look at the scoring average at the Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) for the last few years:
*2023 – Average was 71.94, was 7th hardest of the 50 courses that year. Because of winds all four days and brutal rough the course played a shot and a half harder than in 2022.
*2022 – Average was 70.23, was 29th hardest of the 50 courses that year. Despite high winds of up to 22mph on Friday and winds of 6 to 12 the other days, the course played easier, making 2022 the easiest it has played in its history. Historically, the course seems to be getting easier.
*2021 – Average was 70.96; it was the 20th hardest of the 51 courses that year. The weather was good; yes, the course saw winds of up to 15 mph every day except for Saturday, which was a great day, and the winds were only 8 mph. Now, the Cooperhead course is very demanding; the 70.96 average was the first time the course played under par since 2012, when perfect weather brought the scoring average below par at 70.73.
*2020 – The event wasn’t played due to COVID-19.
*2019 – Average was 71.98, was 6th hardest of 49 courses that year.
In 2018, the scoring average was 71.97; again, it was the 6th hardest course to score in 2018. What makes the course so hard is the winds that would blow up to 30 mph, making the course hard. In the wind, the course is a bear; look at 2015, when the average was 72.88 (3rd hardest); in 2014, the average was 72.59 (10th hardest); and in 2013, it played at 71.91, making it the 12th hardest course on tour. So historically, the Copperhead is a challenging course to start with, add some wind, and it’s a brute. But the course can become more manageable after four days of calm conditions. As in 2017, during perfect conditions with little winds, the course played to a 71.51 scoring average, making it the 17th hardest course. Now, in all those periods when the course played over par, the event was played in mid-March, which is the windiest time for that area, but in 2021, it was an exception to the rule since the course was played in April and spilled over to the first of May. So we can see the rest of the courses in Florida. Wind plays an essential part in bringing the scores high. This is the fourth straight event played in Florida, and we have yet to see many windy days, which is remarkable considering that there was very little wind in Florida in March. That streak will continue a bit this week. Thursday, winds will be in the 16 mph range; after that, the last three days will see wins in the 6 to 11 mph range, so look for low scores. Temperatures will be seasonably low, 75 on Thursday and 68 on Friday, with it climbing to 73 on Saturday and 78 on Sunday. There will be no rain for the four tournament days.

In looking at the stats for Cooperhead over the last few years, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy, and putting from 4 to 8 feet are important. To win on this Course, you have to be a great ball striker and also be able to putt.
Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as the most important of our four categories. The stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for the Cooperhead course over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and Driving Accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. In 2024, the course ranked 2nd in driving distance on all holes; in Driving Accuracy, the course was 5th; and in greens hit, it ranked 7th last year. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Peter Malnati ranked 16th in driving distance on all holes, averaging 283.5 yards per drive on all holes. He was T-46th in Driving Accuracy, hitting 27 of 54 fairways, and T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 47 of 72 greens. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Moore was 14th, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 4th.

Here is a look at Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green for the Valspar Championship by looking at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit for the winners in the last few years:
2023 – The course ranked 3rd in driving distance (all holes) with an average drive of 279.9 yards (out of 41 courses), 15th in driving Accuracy, and 3rd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Taylor Moore was 11th in the driving distance all holes, averaging 287.2 yards per drive, T-32nd in Driving accuracy, hitting 29 of 54 fairways, and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 2nd.
2022 – The course ranked 5th in driving distance with an average drive of 278.3 yards (out of 50 courses), 17th in driving Accuracy, and 14th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Sam Burns was 15th in driving distance all holes, averaging 284.6 yards per drive, T-38th in Driving accuracy, hitting 30 of 54 fairways, and T-13th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2021 – The course ranked 3rd in driving distance with an average drive of 2278.4 yards (out of 50 courses), 20th in driving accuracy, and 6th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Sam Burns (yes, won two straight) was T-17th in driving distance all holes, averaging 284.9 yards per drive, T-14th in Driving accuracy, hitting 34 of 54 fairways, and T-35th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked 5th in driving distance with an average drive of 276.2 yards (out of 50 courses), 11th in driving accuracy, and 1st in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Paul Casey, the defending champion, was 16th in driving distance all holes, averaging 281.5 yards per drive, 9th in Driving accuracy, hitting 35 of 54 fairways, and T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 46 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

The next important stat is Proximity to hole.
In our ranking, hitting greens is one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 7th in greens in regulation, again reflecting how hard-hitting the Cooperhead course’s greens are. Still, for the previous 23 years, 17 of the winners have been in the top 15 in greens hit; taking it a step further, those same champions, ten of them finished in the top five, with five in the top 3, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship.
Last year’s winner, Peter Malnati, hit 47 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th in his two-shot victory. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 16th as the field averaged 37 feet, 7 inches from the hole. Last year’s winner, Moore, ranked 7th and averaged 32 feet, three inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with Proximity to hole for the Valspar Championship, winners the last few years:
2023 – The course ranked 3rd in Greens in Regulation (out of 58 courses) and 18th in Proximity to hole, averaging 38 feet and 2 inches.
Winner Taylor Moore hit 54 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his five-shot victory. He was 23rd in Proximity to hole, averaging 35 feet and eight inches.
2022 – The course ranked 14th in Greens in Regulation (out of 50 courses) and 30th in Proximity to hole, averaging 34 feet and 8 inches.
Winner Sam Burns was T-13th in Greens in Regulation and T-34th in Proximity to hole, averaging 33 feet and ten inches.
2021 – The course ranked 6th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and 19th in Proximity to hole, averaging 36 feet and 7 inches.
Winner Sam Burns was 14th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in Proximity to hole, averaging 32 feet and seven inches.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and 15th in Proximity to hole, averaging 37 feet and three inches.
Winner Paul Casey was T-5th in Greens in Regulation and 65th in Proximity to hole, averaging 41 feet and one inch.
So we can see how tough it is on the Cooperhead Course.

Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting because putting well at Innisbrook is important. The greens are average size (5,822 sq. ft.) and have little undulation, so players can do well on them. We also picked this stat because most past Valspar winners are notoriously good putters. Last year, the Cooperhead course ranked 26th in Putting average, 40th in One-Putt Percentage, 44th in three-putt Avoidance, and 26th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.61% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Peter Malnati, who is one of the best putters in golf, ranked 1st in Putting Average, T-11th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-21st in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 66 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 2.090 shots.

Here is a look at the putting stats of the Cooperhead course and Valspar Championship winners in the last few years:
2023 – The Cooperhead course ranked 23rd in Putting Average, 50th in One-Putt Percentage, 45th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 19th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.80% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Taylor Moore, ranked 34th in Putting average, 50th in One-Putt Percentage, 45th in three-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 61 out of 70 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots.
2022 – The Cooperhead course ranked 32nd in Putting Average, 44th in One-Putt Percentage, T-43rd in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 27th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.56% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Sam Burns, who is one of the best putters in golf, ranked first in Putting average, T-5th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in three-putt Avoidance, and T-51st in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 60 out of 68 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, it’s no surprise that he was 8th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 5.163 shots.
2021-The Cooperhead course ranked 23rd in Putting Average, 46th in One-Putt Percentage, T-43rd in 3-putt Avoidance, and 15th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.55% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Sam Burns ranked 2nd in Putting average, T-11th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 1st in Putting Inside ten feet, making 59 out of 61 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 9.096 shots.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The Cooperhead course ranked 14th in Putting Average, 46th in One-Putt Percentage, T-24th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 14th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.46% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Paul Casey ranked 5th in Putting average, T-32nd in One-Putt Percentage, T-20th in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-50th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 67 out of 77 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 43rd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.392 shots. In the last eleven years, Burns, Casey, Luke Donald, and Jordan Spieth were the only good putters to win.

Our last important category is Par Breakers
because making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, the Cooperhead course had 1,425 birdies, 25th in birdies made, and 35 eagles made, which ranked T-26th. Winner Peter Malnati was T-1st in the field with 20 birdies and had no eagles. 27.78% of the holes were played under par, so he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Valspar Championship winners the last few years:
2023 – 1,264 birdies were made (28th hardest) and 23 eagles (T-14th) as 16.55% of the holes played under par, making it the T-6th hardest of the 58 courses that year
Winner Taylor Moore made 19 birdies (T-7th) but had 0 eagle (T-8th). As 22.22% of the holes were played under par, he ranked T-7th in Par Breakers.
2022 – 1,502 birdies were made (34th hardest) and 36 eagles (T-30th) as 19.78% of the holes played under par, making it the 18th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Sam Burns made 20 birdies (T-2nd) but had 2 eagles (T-1st). As 30.56% of the holes were played under par, he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
2021 – 1,408 birdies were made (29th hardest) and 30 eagles (T-24th) as 217.79% of the holes played under par, making it the 11th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Sam Burns made 21 birdies (2nd) and two eagles (T-2nd), and 31.94% of the holes were played under par, as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – 1,218 birdies were made (20th hardest) and 15 eagles (T-6th) as 16.04% of the holes played under par, making it the 2nd hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Paul Casey made 18 birdies (T-3rd) and one eagle, and 26.39% of the holes were played under par, ranking him T-1st in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

More Proof of the toughness of the course: in the history of this event, only 78 times has a player shot four, under-par rounds, with 3 doing it last year, 3 doing it in 2023, 13 doing it in 2022, and 7 doing it in 2021. Taking it a step further, only 23 times has a player shot four rounds in the 60s; Cameron Young did it in 2024, nobody did it in 2023, while seven players did it in 2022, and in 2021, three. Before that, the last time a player shot four rounds in the 60s was in 2012. We must understand that mother nature is one of the factors affecting this statistic. The winds of March show up each year this event is played, which is why the course has played over par every year between 2012 and 2019.

Look back at the last three Valspar Championships and why they won:

2024: Malnati was locked in a battle with Cameron Young, Malnati drilled a 5-iron into the wind to 6 feet on the par-3 17th for birdie to break out of a tie, and he closed with a par for a 4-under 67 to win by two and earn his first trip to the Masters. For the week, Malnati had one of his best tee to green game on tour as he was T-5th in Greens hit and 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting.

2023: Playing in his sophomore season, Taylor Moore played most of the final day under the radar screen, but with birdies at 9, 12, 15, and 16, Moore could jump into a share of the lead with Adam Schenk. Moore then saved par on the final two holes, including a five-footer at the last. He finished the week converting all 64 of his putts inside seven feet. Schenk gave the tournament to Moore with a poor drive on the final hole, which led to a bogey, and a win for Moore, who didn’t take the lead until the 72nd hole. For Moore, the victory came thanks to good putting and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Going into the week, Moore had career earnings of $3,048,976 in 45 events and added $1.458 million with the Valspar win.

2022: Sam Burns won the Valspar for a second straight year by beating Davis Riley on the second hole of a playoff when he made a 32-foot putt for birdie. Burns trailed Riley by three shots in the final round and shot 69 on Sunday, his eighth consecutive round in the 60s on the Cooperhead course. Keys to Burns’s victory first came from Riley, who made a triple bogey 8 on the fifth hole. As for Burns, he drove the ball well, finishing 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. He also finished 8th in Strokes Gained putting and was ten under on the par 5s.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL ON THE COOPERHEAD COURSE:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: This is a good indication of players that do the best at hitting it far, straight, and then hitting lots of greens to pick up the most strokes by perfecting those combined stats.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length that a player hits it to the hole from the fairway

Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is impossible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course.

136 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2024 season and going through the 2025 Players, a total of 46 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 70 playing in at least eight events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $10,800
• Xander Schauffele – $10,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300
• Sepp Straka – $10,000
• Sam Burns – $9,800
• Corey Conners – $9,600
• Shane Lowry – $9,400
• Will Zalatoris – $9,300
• Tom Kim – $9,200
• Jordan Spieth – $9,100
• Alex Smalley – $9,000

This is a tough tournament to gauge for many different reasons. First, it’s different from those events that players historically attend. A perfect example is Jordan Spieth, who won the tournament in 2015 but didn’t play in it for a couple of years. He returned in 2023 and finished T-3rd. Then you have the weather. Historically, winds play havoc with scoring. This week, look for the lack of winds to make scoring low. Yes, it was windy on Thursday, but it was very calm for the last three days.

However, the most critical problem with this event is that historical data may not help because the elements change yearly, and players only participate a few times a year. It’s essential to see which players produce a lot of offense every time they play. As you can see in the chart above, our top players do give a lot of offense, so it will be an exciting week. One other thing, you won’t see many marquee names winning this.  In the 23 times it’s been played, the biggest marquee names to win this event is Vijay Singh and Jordan Spieth.  Since Charl Schwartzel won in 2016, the champions have either won their first or second Tour wins, so look for that great player who hasn’t won or only has one victory.

So, let’s look at our top players. First off is Justin Thomas at $10,800, who has had a successful 2025 but hasn’t won.  He was good on the West Coast swing but has struggled a bit in Florida, finishing T-36th at the Palmer and T-33rd at the Players.  It could be a different story this week; he has played well at Innisbrook, including T-3rd in 2022.  Xander Schauffele at $10,500 is a tough question.  When he is on his game, this course is perfect for his game as he was T-12th in 2022 and T-5th last year.  In his three 2025 starts, he seems a bit lost. Yes, the two months off to heal his rib injuries are taking their toll on Schauffele.  Still, he is using these weeks to sharpen up his game for the Masters. I think he will get more comfortable with his game this week.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,300 is a great choice. He has played well at Innisbrook, including T-16th in 2022 and T-3rd in 2023.  For the year, his game is getting sharper. He was T-5th at Genesis, T-11th at Palmer, and T-14th at The Players.  Sepp Straka at $10,000, fits the model of the perfect champion at Valspar.  Hasn’t played that well on the course but has played well in Florida, finishing T-11th at Cognizant, T-5th at the Palmer, and T-14th at The Players.  Sam Burns at $9,800 is a no for me. He has won twice at the Valspar, but his game is in flux right now and has struggled; take a pass on Burns.  Corey Conners at $9,600 is a big yes, his game has been peaking, he was 3rd at the Palmer and T-6th at The Players.  Don’t think you can go wrong with him.  The same with Shane Lowry at $9,400; his game is perfect for the Cooperhead course, and his game has been sharp in 2025, including a 2nd at Pebble.  Will Zalatoris at $9,300 is finding his game in flux right now.  Hard to believe he has never played this event, and it should suit his game.  The only problem he has is that he has not been very consistent in 2025, and a perfect example of that was seen at The Players.  After 42 holes, he was close to the lead at 11 under par, but over the course of his last 23 holes, it turned into a nightmare.  He finished his third round with a Quadruple bogey 8 on 14, double bogey 6 on 15, double bogey 5 on 17 an bogey 5 at 18 shooting 44 on the back.  He struggled on Sunday and shot 71 as he played his last 23 holes in 8 over par to finish T-30th.  Will he be better this week, I wouldn’t count on it.  Tom Kim at $9,200 is a no for me. I played this event for the first time, and he has struggled in his last four starts, and I don’t see it changing for this week.  Jordan Spieth at $9,100 is a very good choice. he has played well at Innisbrook, and his game has shown some good parts; I think this will be a good week for him.  Alex Smalley at $9,000 has played well in 2025 and has been in the top 25 his last four starts.  Don’t like that he hasn’t played well at Innisbrook. Despite his good play, it’s best to pass on him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Lucas Glover at $8,800 is a very good pick because his game and putting have been coming around.  Innisbrook should be perfect for his game, and he has made many cuts.  Watch him. he was T-3rd at The Players, and his putting seems to come around.  J.T. Poston at $8,700 could work out, he does make a lot of cuts and Innisbrook is good for his game.  Ben Griffin at $7,900 is another to think about. He makes a lot of cuts and has his moments, like finishing T-4th at the Mexico Open and Cognizant.  Looking for that hidden gem for this week; it could be Keith Mitchell at $7,800.  Has played consistently in 2025; he has also played okay in the Valspar.  Thomas Detry at $7,700 is a great price for a player who has played well of late.  He was T-17th last year at the Valspar, and despite missing the cut at the Palmer and Players, I think he will be good this week.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,600 could be a solid pick, the course is good for his game, he was T-9th last year.  Just think he will find a way to crawl up the leaderboard this week.

Are there any Bargains out there?

Billy Horschel at $7,400 is worth it based on how well he plays from this week to the end of September.  He was T-12th last year at the Valspar, and his game showed signs of improvement last week at the Players.  Sam Stevens at $7,300 is a good buy, he started strongly being in contention at the Farmers, think it’s time for him to regain some of that momentum.  Nicolai Hojgaard at $7,300 is worth looking at, he was 8th in Mexico and could find Innisbrook to his liking.  Adam Hadwin at $7,200 is great at Innisbrook, winning in 2017 and finishing T-6th last year.  Kevin Roy at $7,100 was T-12th last year at the Valspar and was T-6th at Puerto Rico a few weeks back.  Rico Hoey at $7,000 is a cheap way of getting points for someone who will play 72 holes this week.  Brandt Snedeker at $6,400 is a good choice considering he has played at the Valspar 12 times, making 10 cuts.

Here is a secret of what it takes to play well at the Valspar Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

In looking at the 23 champions of this event, 14 of them have this in common.  They were in the top-13 in greens hit.  As a matter of fact, seven of them were in the top five, including 2019 champion Paul Casey, who was T-5th in Greens hit in 2019.  In 2022, winner Sam Burns was T-13th, 2023 champion Taylor Moore was T-2nd, and last year, Peter Malnati was T-5th. So it is crucial to hit lots of greens, and those that do usually have an advantage.

Who to watch for at the Valspar Championship