BlogMasters Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Of course, and we are all getting sick of it, LIV golf. In some respects, the fans are tired of bickering about more money and status. We are seeing a drop in the TV ratings. When everyone across the globe is cutting back and watching their dollars, some players fly on private jets and bring their cooks and trainers, and others complain about not getting more money. Things are at a meltdown point between the tours and LIV golf. It’s nearly two years since it looked like LIV and the PGA Tour were finally going to work things out. I don’t see it happening now, as the two tours aren’t close.

Like anything, these adults don’t want to be part of this news. Like in life, people generally hang out with people they like and associate with, so I see very few problems. As for the Champions dinner on Tuesday night, I can’t see anyone wanting to make an ass of themselves. The past years have been very civil, and I don’t see it changing.

This year, LIV has gotten onto Fox. The first four starts played in Asia and Australia didn’t have very good ratings, but on Sunday at Doral, 484,000 TVs tuned in for the final round. It was the biggest TV rating that LIV has ever gotten, but it was nothing compared to the 1.75 million who watched the Valero Texas Open.

The one thing I can say about LIV golf is that some people watch it because they think it’s different, but those numbers are dwindling. I can’t tell you the importance of a LIV golfer winning this week. Many feel that LIV golf is like eggs being placed on a hot summer road: They are getting very overcooked and won’t be edible much longer.

But hey, there are 12 LIV golfers in the Masters. This week, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, and Cameron Smith will do well. I also would not be surprised to see Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson, and Patrick Reed doing well. As for their leading money winner for the year, Joaquin Niemann, I can’t see him winning. In five starts, he has made four cuts, and his best finish is T-16th in 2023. The course doesn’t suit his game.

But for either DeChambeau, Smith, Koepka, or Rahm, I can see one of them winning this week.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

As for those who are favorites and those who have fallen out of that circle, we have discussed Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy being big favorites for months. As for McIlroy, he will be making his 17th Masters start, and a lot is riding on him winning. First, it’s been 11 years since McIlroy won his last major, and it’s getting harder each time he plays in a major. But the Masters is the one he wants. A win gets him into a very elite club with only five members. Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player, and Tiger Woods have won all four majors. Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth, and Rory have won three of four majors and are looking for that last one. For Mickelson, it’s the U.S. Open, an event he has been runner-up at five times. For Spieth, it’s the PGA Championship, and for Rory, it’s the Masters. Now, Sergio Garcia won his Masters on his 19th try in 2017.

Gene Littler and Tom Kite have played in the most Masters without a victory, 26. I don’t think that Rory wants to do that. But Rory is getting to the spooky age, which gets more complicated at each start. No matter what Rory does, he will be on everyone’s radar screen, which is tough. Rory is in a weird group of players who have come close and never won the Masters. The first one who couldn’t win the Masters was Bobby Jones himself. The founder of Augusta was retired but decided to play in the first in 1934 to help attract fans to the new tournament. That first year, he finished T-13th, and little did he know that would be his best finish. He played a total of 12, the last coming in 1948 when he finished 48th. The next player who came close was Ken Venturi, who, in his second start in 1956, had a four-shot lead going into the final round but shot 80 and lost by a shot to Jackie Burke, Jr.  He finished T-4th in 1958, and in 1960 found himself sitting in the Butler Cabin with a one-shot lead over Arnold Palmer. But that would be the year that Palmer finished birdie-birdie to snatch the win away from Venturi. He played in 14 Masters before calling it quits in 1969. Next up had to be Tom Weiskopf, who in six years between 1969 was runner-up four times. The hardest one had to be the last in 1975 when Jack Nicklaus pulled some surprises down the stretch to beat Weiskopf.

But the biggest hard-luck player had to be Greg Norman. He played in 23 Masters and came close three times. The first was in 1986 when he birdied 14, 15, 16, and 17 to get into a tie with Jack Nicklaus going into the final hole. After a perfect drive, Norman hit a terrible shot to the right side of the green, leading to a bogey and one shot back of Nicklaus. The following year, Larry Mize made a birdie at the 72nd hole to get into a playoff with Seve Ballesteros and Norman. At the second playoff hole, the 11th hole, Mize was off the green and holed out the chip to beat Norman. But the worst defeat came in 1996 when he played brilliantly for 54 holes and went into the final round with a six-shot lead. Things got to a bad start with a bogey on the first hole, but things weren’t bad until the ninth hole. He was still leading Faldo with a comfortable three-shot lead, but when he made a bogey at nine, and Faldo made a birdie, things got tight. Norman made bogeys at 10 and 11, then dunked his tee shot at 12 and walked off the green four shots behind Faldo. Norman worked hard making birdies at 13 and 15, but he hit it into the water at 16 and found himself losing to Faldo by five shots. Norman played in seven more Masters and found himself in the battle in 1999, only to lose by three to Jose Maria Olazabal. So for Norman, he missed the cut in 2009, his 23rd start, and his career in the Masters was over.

The point in all this is how tougher it gets on each start.

For Rory, he has never really looked comfortable at Augusta after 2011. That year, he was just 22, and after a first-round 65, he was the leader and went into the final round with a four-shot lead. Things were okay on the front nine of the final day as he shot 37. But disaster struck with a terrible tee shot left at 10, which led to a triple bogey. Rory bogeyed 11 and made double at 12 and with a bogey at 15 shot a back nine 43 for 80 to finish T-15th ten shots back of the winner Charl Schwartzel.  After that, McIlroy struggled.  Since 2011, in his next 13 starts, his biggest problem is the first round.  He broke 70 once and a 69 in 2018 when he finished T-5th.  In 58 rounds, Rory has only been in the 60s 14 times, and since 2021 shot in the 60s only once, a final round 64 to finish 2nd in 2022.  So, McIlroy seems to have this mental block.  Yes, he is going into this year playing his best golf ever for January, February, and March.  He has won the Players and also won at Pebble Beach.  He played great at the Houston Open, finishing T-5th, but I hear him making little tweaks with equipment.  At the Tour Championship, Rory showed up with a new putter.  At Pebble Beach, he played with a new TaylorMade golf ball.  Things went well as he won. At Bay Hill, Rory put a new driver, 3 wood, and 5 wood into his bag.  A week later, he won the Players Championship.  Supposedly, according to the British press, Rory has teamed up with a leading psychologist, Bob Rotella, who helped Padraig Harrington win the British Open.  Rotella seems to be trying to get Rory into the “right state of mind.”

So I don’t know what to say about this.  I want to see Rory win the Masters and finally get the monkey off his back.  He is a great player and deserves a major, but we must be realistic.  I see what happened at Pinehurst and think those memories are deep inside Rory.  We will see, but seeing him struggling this week wouldn’t surprise me.

As for Scottie Scheffler, I think he is very close. The only reason he hasn’t won is his putter. It’s not that he is putting poorly; he isn’t in the groove yet. I have a feeling that he will find it this week and be very hard to beat. He is hitting the ball as well as last year, and I feel he is the most comfortable player in golf right now.

Things you need to know about the Masters

This week will be the 89th edition of the Masters. It has been played every year except between 1943 and 1945, when the war suspended the championship. It is the only major played on the same course each year at Augusta National.

The Masters was conceived by Bobby Jones, who had always dreamed of having a U.S. Open played on Augusta National.  However, with the hot summers in June, Jones approached the USGA with the idea of playing the Open at Augusta in April, but the USGA turned him down.  So Jones and Clifford Roberts decided to hold their annual event beginning in 1934.  Roberts proposed that the event be called the Masters’ Tournament, but Jones objected, thinking it was too presumptuous.  The name Augusta National Invitation Tournament was adopted, and that title was used for five years until 1939 when Jones relented, and the name was officially changed.

Course information:

• August National Golf Club
• August, Georgia
• 7,555 yards     Par 36-36–72

While playing championship golf, Bobby Jones had always hoped that he would be able to build a championship golf course near his Atlanta home one day.  Upon his retirement after the 1930 U.S. Amateur, Jones set out to complete his dream.  In the 1920s, he met New York banker Clifford Roberts, who helped Jones with his vision. After looking at several places, they both decided on Augusta, Ga., as the site provided the best weather in the winter months.  They scouted the area for a piece of land that, according to Jones, plans would utilize the natural shape and slope of the property to build the course.  Jones didn’t want a venue that relied on severe rough as a hazard and hoped that he could find a piece of property with a stream running through it to build several holes around it for water hazards.  He also wanted to create a championship course that would be playable for the average golfer, using mounds and slopes as hazards instead of sand bunkers.

Also helping Jones and Roberts in their search was Thomas Barrett Jr. He knew of a piece of land in Augusta that he thought would be perfect for Jones’ dream course.  He recommended a piece of property called Fruitlands Nursery.  The land consisted of 365 acres, once an indigo plantation the family bought in 1857.  The man was Louis Mathieu Edouard Berckmans, who was a horticulturist by hobby.  Along with his son Julius Alphonse, an agronomist and horticulturist by profession, they formed a business in 1858 to import trees and plants from various countries.  It would be the first commercial nursery in the south, and they called it Fruitland Nursery. Even though Berchmans died in 1883, the business flourished. Many flowering plants and trees, including a long double row of magnolias, were planted before the Civil War, and today they serve as the club’s entrance on the property.  But, Prosper’s claim to fame was that he popularized a plant called the azalea.

Upon Prosper’s death in 1910, the business stopped operation, and the heirs sought a buyer.  That buyer appeared in late 1930 when Tom Barrett first showed Jones Berchman’s nursery.  Upon seeing the property from what is now the practice putting green, Jones knew he had the perfect land for an ideal golf course.  He told Roberts and Barrett that he thought the ground had been lying there all these years, waiting for someone to come along and lay a golf course on it.

An option was taken on the property for $70,000, and it was decided to establish a national membership for the club, and Jones proposed Augusta National would be an appropriate name. Jones also agreed in the planning stage he wanted Dr. Alister Mackenzie of Scotland to serve as the course architect since the pair held similar views. Before coming to Augusta, Mackenzie had designed two courses in California – Pasatiempo and Cypress Point.  Jones played those courses after failing in the first round of the 1929 U.S. Amateur and fell in love with the courses and MacKenzie’s design.  So that was the main reason he got MacKenzie to help him.

Jones and Mackenzie completed the plans, and the construction started in July of 1931. Unfortunately, after the construction work was completed, Mackenzie died before Augusta National was entirely covered with grass. The course was finished and opened in December 1932 with limited member play. A formal opening took place in January of 1933.

Since the course opened, it has been changed several times in 87 years. In 1934, the tournament nines were different and were changed for the 1935 event. Also, the grasses have changed over the years between bent and Bermudagrass. Today, Augusta National’s tees and fairways are Bermuda grass, but they are overseeded each fall with ryegrass. The greens are bentgrass, which gives them tremendous speed and smoothness.

The average green size at Augusta is 6,150 square feet, which is about the PGA Tour average. Water comes into play on five holes on the backside, with only 43 bunkers.

For the 2019 Masters, the 5th hole was lengthened.  The land purchase that they made many years ago allowed Augusta National to shut down Berkman’s Road, which the old 5th tee was up against.  So they could move the tee back 30 yards and now make the 5th hole an absolute monster.

When the players arrived two years ago, they noticed a couple of changes to three of the holes. The par 4 11th had a new tee that added 15 yards to the hole. The tee is also to the golfer’s left of the old tee. The fairway has been re-contoured, and several trees have been removed on the right side. This change does not make the hole harder but should make the fairway more obtainable off the tee.

The second change is to par 5, which is the 15th hole.  20 yards have been added to the hole, and the fairway was also re-contoured.  20 yards shouldn’t mean much for the players, for the long hitters will have to use a long iron to get home in two, but for the player that is average length off the tee, it may give them more of a decision if they want to hit the green in two.

The last change came on par 4, the 18th hole. For the players, this is a bit strange; 13 yards have been added to the back of the tee, but they are saying it doesn’t mean a change in length to the hole. Officials have changed it because more players are driving it past the big bunker on the left side of the fairway. But despite the 13 added yards, because of the dogleg right nature of the hole, it won’t add 13 yards.

With the changes, 35 yards were added to the scorecard, bringing the total yardage up to 7,510.

Now, for 2023, the big change was to the 13th hole.  We have been told that this change was years in the making, and it took the purchase of some land from the neighboring Augusta Country Club for it to happen.  We thought that it would happen in 2022, and it didn’t.  For this year, 35 yards have been added to the 13th hole.  This is a monumental change, one that, for half the field, means they won’t be able to go for the green in two.  For the other half, it will mean a longer shot into the green, meaning more of a challenge.  But for some of the really long hitters who have been using 3-wood off the tee for placement of the drive, they can now flair away with the driver and not worry about rolling through the fairway into the trees and the hazards that brings.

Changes for 2024

Ten yards have been added to the 2nd hole, bringing the total yardage to 7,555.

For a more comprehensive look at the course, look at this course overview done by Masters.Com.

One last thing, the forecast for this week is mixed.  But once things clear up Friday afternoon, things will get better over the weekend:

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Augusta National.

This is based on the most important stats for Augusta National, based on data from last April’s Masters, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2025. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
How did the field score at the Masters
Last year’s Masters played to a 73.91 average and was the 3rd hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 50 courses charted in 2024. Weather was poor on Thursday, with wind gusts to 40 mph and rain. There was no rain the rest of the week, but winds did blow between 7 and 20 mph.
Here is a look at the scoring average at Augusta National for the last few years:
*2023 – Masters was played at its regular time in April for the third straight year. In April 2023, the course played to a 72.96 average and was the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 58 courses charted.
*2022 – Played at its regular time in April for the second straight year. The average was 73.95, which was the 3rd hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 71.75, it was the 21st hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Masters was played in November 2020, postponed due to COVID. Now, in this earlier 2020 Masters, the course played entirely differently in November, and its 71.75 made it the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021 (despite it historically being called the 2020 Masters, it was played in the 2021 PGA Tour season). Even more relevant, it was only the third Masters, in which the scoring average was below par and the lowest scoring average, beating out the 71.87 field average in 2019, ranking the course as the 16th hardest on the PGA Tour. Now that year had very wet conditions, and Sunday’s forecast was so bad with afternoon storms that they had to tee it up early at 7:30 am with threesomes off of both tees.

Looking at the weather for Augusta
The good news is that winds for the four championship days will be mild, as it will be between 6 to 11 mph. It’s not going to be warm as Thursday will be the highest temperature at 76 degrees, and Saturday will be the coldest at 68. The first three days will be partly cloudy, with showers on Friday morning. Sunday will be the best day, with sunny skies, winds of 6 mph, and a temperature of 73 degrees. The prospect of Augusta National playing fast probably won’t happen because of the rain that fell last week, plus the lack of wind. So, look for scoring to be on the low side. The course will lose some of its bite, something it is famous for. Even with the Subair pumps under all the greens, Augusta officials won’t have firm and fast conditions, which is how they hope the course will play.

Does Augusta favor the bomber?
One thing that we have to look at is the claim that Augusta is great for long-hitters. That is partly true. Hitting it long does have its advantage, especially on Augusta’s par 5s. Dustin Johnson proved this in 2020 when he was 6th in driving distance on the measured holes with a 306.7 average. Where Johnson was able to shine was on the par 5s, he was 11 under, and only one player was better than him. Johnson took advantage of his length as he hit 60 greens in Regulation, the best in the field.
The following year, 2021, went back to the norm as Hideki Matsuyama hit an average of 288.8 yards and ranked 47th of those who made the cut. Despite Matsuyama hitting it much shorter, he still played the Par 5s in 11 under, the same as Johnson.
In 2022, Scottie Scheffler ranked 16th in driving distance, and he was 8 under on the Par 5s.
2023 winner Jon Rahm’s drives were 298.8 yards, which ranked 24th. He hit 52 greens, which ranked 3rd, and was 10 under on the Par 5s.
Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, had drives of 305.8 yards and ranked 13th. He hit 46 greens that ranked T-7th and was 9 under on the Par 5s, showing that the last four winners, Matsuyama, Scheffler, and Rahm, didn’t win because of length.

Now, showing players who aren’t as long as Johnson, in 2018 and 2017, both winners Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia showed their advantage as they both ranked 6th in driving distance and played the par 5s in 7 under for Garcia and 13 under for Reed. But in looking at the past champions, it’s mixed with long hitters and short hitters.
The perfect example was in 2019. Tiger Woods ranked 44th in driving distance, the highest of champions since Jordan Spieth in 2015. Also, in 2016 and 2015. Danny Willett ranked 32nd in driving distance, while in 2015, Jordan Spieth ranked 52nd. But look at the top ten for the week in April of last year. Four of the top 11 were within driving distance. In 2021, five in the top 12 were in the top ten; in 2019, only 3; while in 2018, only 4; while in 2017, only 3 out of 10 while in 2016, 5 out of 14 while in 2015, only one of the 11 were ranked in the top-ten in distance, showing that there is more to Augusta than people think. They have been keeping stats at the Masters since 1980, and of the last 42 winners (Seve in 1980 had no stats), 19 winners were in the top 10, and only six were in the top 3. So hitting it long has advantages, but even short hitters win at Augusta. A perfect example is Zach Johnson, who won in 2007 and ranked 57th in driving distance. On the par 5s, he laid up on all of them and still played the par 5s in 11 under, so length means very little.

We need to go back to the dark ages of stat-keeping.
In looking at the stats, Augusta National doesn’t report stroke gain stats, which we have been using more, so we have to return to the old-fashioned stats. The same is true in putting. They don’t “publicly” tell us the stats for the number of putts made inside five feet or ten feet, so looking at putting stats available at the Masters, they don’t tell the story. So, in looking at the stats for Augusta National, one thing is obvious: the course caters to those who hit lots of greens, can scramble well, can avoid three-putts, and play well on the par 5s. So, these are the four stats we picked for this week’s key course stats. Remember, our hands are tied because of the lack of shotlink-style statistics.

So, which stats are vital?
Our first category is Greens in Regulation.  Last year, Augusta National ranked 8th in greens in Regulation (57.33) compared to other PGA Tour courses. Winner Scottie Scheffler ranked T-7th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 46 of 72 greens.
*In 2023, Augusta ranked 11th in greens in Regulation (60.65). Winner Jon Rahm ranked T-3rd, hitting 52 of the 72 greens.
*In 2022, Augusta ranked 5th in greens in Regulation (57.36). This was the lowest ranking since it ranked 1st in 2007. For the last six years, its average rank was 12.9, averaging 61.61%, which has been a very consistent number. As for the winner, Scottie Scheffler, he ranked T-5th, hitting 49 of 72 greens.
*In 2021, Augusta ranked 25th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 65.91 of the 72 greens. The 2021 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, was T-7th, hitting 50 of the 72 greens.
Of the 44 winners that have stats, 29 of them were in the top ten, with nine leading that stat. Jack Nicklaus in 1986 was 1st in Greens hit, and since then, only seven of them weren’t in the top 20. In 2018, Patrick Reed ranked 21st, which is a dramatic withdrawal because it was the 3rd highest rank in the previous 23 Masters championships going back to 1997. We can see the importance of not only hitting greens but placing the ball on the greens to have the best putt since the greens are very severe in slope and break. The last champion to lead the Greens in Regulation stat was Dustin Johnson in 2020. Tiger Woods also led that stat in 2019.

Our next category is scrambling, and last year, the course ranked 4th, while Scottie Scheffler ranked T-10th as he got it up and down on 17 of the 26 greens he missed (65.38%).
*In 2023 the course ranked 7th while Jon Rahm ranked 1st.
*In 2022 the course ranked 4th while Scottie Scheffler ranked T-2nd.
*In 2021, the stat was again influential as the course ranked 13th while Hideki Matsuyama was 2nd.
*In November 2020, Dustin Johnson was 4th in Scrambling.
*In 2019, Tiger was on the other end of the spectrum, ranking T-50th.
*In 2018 Augusta was 5th on Tour while winner Patrick Reed was T-16th.
The point is that Augusta is one of the most demanding courses to make par on when you miss the greens, so the winner better be able to get it up and down.

Our third stat to look at is three-putt avoidance at Augusta. The course was 1st, while winner Scottie Scheffler was T-16th as he had two three-putts throughout the play.
*In 2023, the course was 7th while Jon Rahm was T-51st (he had four three-putts and one four-putt over the 72 holes).
*In 2022, the course was 4th as Scottie Scheffler was T-23rd (he had two, three putts, and one four-putt over the 72 holes).
*In 2021, the course was 3rd while Hideki Matsuyama was T-33rd (He had four, three putts).
*In 2020, Dustin Johnson was T-5th (he had one three-putt all week).
*In 2019, the course was the 6th hardest on Tour, while Tiger was T-22nd (only had two three-putts).
*In 2018, Augusta played 5th hardest on Tour, while Reed only had two three-putts for the entire week and was ranked T-13th.
*To show the importance of not three-putting, when Dustin Johnson defended his Masters title in 2021, he missed the cut by making six three-puts over 36 holes.
*For those wondering who the last champion who went 72 holes without a three-putt, Jose Maria Olazabal accomplished that feat in 1999. Before that, Tiger Woods in 1997, Ben Crenshaw in 1995, and Olazabal had no three-putts for the week.

Our last category is par 5.
*Last year, the Par 5 average for the field I was ranked 6th with a 4.77 average or 4.40 under. Winner Scheffler was 9 under for the week, which ranked 2nd (Will Zalatoris was the best at 10 under).
*In 2023, the Par 5 average for the field ranked 20th with a 4.67 average or 6.30 under for the week. Winner Rahm was 10 under for the week, which ranked T-2nd (Brooks Koepka was the best at 11 under).
*In 2022, the Par 5 average for the field ranked T-6th with a 4.78 average or 2.82 under for the week. Winner Scheffler was 8 under for the week, which ranked T-2nd (Cameron Smith was the best at 9 under).
*In 2021 Augusta ranked 4th with a 4.311 average. As for Matsuyama, he ranked T-2nd at 4.31 or 11 under for the week.
*In 2020 the course ranked 34th at 4.59 while Johnson played the par 5s in 11 under.
*In 2019, the course average was 4.58, and was T-33rd on Tour. In 2019, Tiger was 8 under for the week, which ranked T-27th.
*In 2018, Augusta was 4.70 and T-17th on Tour. Reed was 13 under for the week, which is the key to how he won.
If you look at the history of the Masters, the best is 15 under by five different players (Greg Norman in 1995, Tiger Woods in 2010, Ernie Els in 2013, Phil Mickelson in 2015, and Marc Leishman in 2021). There were only five different players at 14 under, so you can see that 13 under by Reed was a milestone. Playing the par 5s was very important in Reed’s victory.
Since 1997, every winner has been under par on the par 5s except for Danny Willett, who played them in even par in 2016. But if you average out the winners in the last 26 years, they average 8 under, so you can see the importance of playing the par 5s well for the week.

So, let’s take a more careful look at how the last ten champions became victorious.
*Last year, Scottie Scheffler was T-7th in greens hit, T-10th in Driving Accuracy, 4th in scrambling, 3rd in Overall Putting Average, and 9 under on the par 5s. He dominated early, and his final round 68 was the 2nd-low round of the day (Tom Kim shot 66).
*In 2023, Jon Rahm was T-3rd in greens hit, T-4th in Driving Accuracy, 1st in scrambling, T-17th in Overall Putting Average, and 10 under on the par 5s. He dominated early and held on for the victory, doing just about everything right.
*In 2022, Scottie Scheffler was 5th in greens hit, T-2nd in scrambling, T-23rd in three-putt avoidance, and was 8 under on the par 5s. He dominated early in the first two rounds and held on for the victory.
*In 2021, Hideki Matsuyama was T-7th in greens hit but 2nd in scrambling and had an average putting week, which is good for him. Matsuyama played the par 5s in 11 under, which was 4th best.
*In 2020, Dustin Johnson did nothing wrong. It was probably the best overall display ever seen at the Masters. Of course, this claim does have an asterisk next to it since the tournament was played in November. That does make sense when you see the scores. What Augusta National prides itself on the course had a different bite than it typically has. In November, 43 players were under par, and two of its biggest records fell. The first was the low 72-hole score. Dustin Johnson became the first player in history to break the 270 mark as he shot 20 under 268. Of course, records are meant to be broken, but the one record that probably stings the most is, for the first time in Masters history, someone shot four sub-60 rounds. What makes the record being broken even more challenging to swallow is that the winner didn’t accomplish the record. Runner-up Cameron Smith will go into the record books with his rounds of 67-68-69-69. The Masters’ statistician was busy as 40 Masters records were broken and 14 were tied. So, the move back to April was well welcomed by those in charge of course setup.
Back to our roll call of recent winnings,
*In 2019, Tiger did it with his ironwork. He hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field. This helped him to make 22 birdies, which were 2nd best.
*In 2018, Reed did it with his putter. He had the least amount of putts and was the best in one-putts with 38. But playing the par 5s in 13 under put him over the top.
*In 2017, Sergio Garcia won it with his ball striking. He was 2nd in fairways hits and T-2nd in greens hits. This allowed him to miss the rare putt here and there, but still enough for the win.
*In 2016, Danny Willett was T-6th in greens in regulation. He was 1st in scrambling, T-2nd in three-putt avoidance, and 54th in par 5 average.
*How about 2015 for Jordan Spieth? He ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 75% of his greens. He was T-10th in scrambling, T22nd in three-putt avoidance, and T-4th in Par 5 Scoring. One other essential item that won’t be on this list but you should have in the back of your mind is making lots of birdies; in 2015, Spieth led that stat, making 28 birdies for the week, while Willett was T-16th, making just 13 for the week.

Again, if a person can hit a lot of greens, scramble well on the ones he misses, and make a good share of putts, especially in the 4 to 10-foot range, he is a can’t miss to not only contend but possibly win.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is an excellent barometer of how well players manage their games around Augusta National. Every year, the players who hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So, which course is challenging to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Scrambling is essential since all areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with tough shots to get it close. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some challenging places

*Three-putt avoidance: Augusta has the most challenging greens in the world to putt on. They only average 6,486 square feet, so they aren’t big or small, but they are sloppy, and you can face many ten-foot lag putts. So when you are 30 or 40 feet away, getting up and down in two putts is tough and essential.

*Par 5 scoring: This is the one place long hitters do have an advantage on, the par 5s. Three of the four are within reach of the longest hitters, and depending on how Augusta sets up the 8th hole, that could be easy or hard. But it’s essential to do well on the Par 5s to win.

Players from this year’s field have stats from 2025, with 71 of the 95 players having stats. One other thing: the Masters is not part of the PGA Tour’s shotlink program, so you won’t see stats like Strokes Gained this week.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

We have compiled a database covering 49 events, beginning at the start of the 2024 season and ending with the 2025 Valero Texas Open. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least eight events:

Be sure to check out our historical DraftKings data from the Masters

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,400
• Rory McIlroy – $11,100
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,800
• Collin Morikawa – $10,500
• Jon Rahm – $10,400
• Bryson DeChambeau – $9,900
• Xander Schauffele – $9,700
• Justin Thomas – $9,600
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,500
• Brooks Koepka – $9,400
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,300
• Viktor Hovland – $9,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
• Jordan Spieth – $9,000

Have to say that the Masters could be one of the hardest events to pick.  If you look at the 14 names above, 7 are great choices, with half being slam dunks to finish in the top five.  So you have to choose well in those below $8,400, and it’s very hard to pick once you get in the below $7,500 category.

When I look at these prices, my first thought is that they are more than fair. The last thing you hate to see is a couple of overpriced guys in the $10,000 or above range, but that isn’t the case. Maybe it is because the field is smaller. Of course, there has to be a scale based on the number of players in the field. So, with the Master’s field at just 95, maybe this is the reason.

On top is Scottie Scheffler at $12,400. Yes, a lot of money, but it is well worth the price.  Every phase of his game is perfect, and if his putting gets hot, he could be unbeatable.  So let’s put it this way: so many people will take Scheffler, and if you don’t take him and he wins or finishes 2nd or 3rd, you will be way out of it.  So sorry, have to take Scottie.  Next up is Rory McIlroy at $11,100, and despite him having the best season, it’s best to pass on him.  Rory struggles at the Masters, and with all of the attention he is getting, he is going to be under a lot of pressure.   As we said above, Rory’s biggest problem at the Masters is the first round, if he doesn’t shot under 70 he may be finding himself struggling to catch up.  I’m so sorry, but it’s a no for me on Rory.  Ludvig Aberg at $10,800 is also a no for me. he missed the cut at the Players and Valero, and he has struggled with his game since winning the Genesis.  Know he played well last year, finishing 2nd, but he was playing well in the weeks before.  Best to wait for the PGA Championship or even next week at Hilton Head.  Collin Morikawa at $10,500 is a very good choice. His game has been sharp, and if he had made a few more putts, he could easily have two victories this year.  Also, look at how he has done in past Masters: 5th in 2022, T-10th in 2023, and T-3rd last year.  He could easily be the winner this year.  Jon Rahm at $10,400 is a no for me.  Yes, he seems to finish in the top ten each week on LIV golf, but I don’t think his game suits that kind of golf course.  He shot 74 in the last round in Miami, his highest round of the year, but what worries me I just don’t think his game is ready for Augusta.  Showed last year when he finished T-45th. I don’t think Rahm finishes in the top ten this week.  Bryson DeChambeau at $9,900 is a flip-a-coin pick.  He seemed to struggle at Augusta until last year, finishing T-6th.  He looked good at Doral but struggled in the last round.  Think he wants to win badly enough. Yes, he can go in either direction.  Xander Schauffele at $9,700 is a big mystery. Augusta is perfect for him, but his game seems lost.  Since returning at the Palmer, he finished T-40th at the Palmer, 72nd at the Players, and T-12th at the Valspar.  He did show some spark at Valspar, but he still has a long way to go.  Justin Thomas at $9,600 seemed to be a good buy, but late in the beginning of the year, he has been up and down. He did look good in his last start at Valspar, finishing 2nd, and has had good moments at Augusta but has not played great in the last three years.  Sorry, but there are better choices than Thomas.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,500 is a no for me. He started strong with his Sentry win but has had no top tens since then and has missed the cut in his last two starts.  So stay away from him.  Brooks Koepka at $9,400 has me shaking my head.  He is the one person I always thought would win a Master’s or two.  But his game has struggled since winning the PGA almost two years ago. He is very unhappy with LIV golf and is looking for the end of his contract in September and returning to the PGA Tour.  Joaquin Niemann at $9,300 is a no for me. he just has never played well at Augusta, and no matter how many times he wins in LIV golf, he is not suited for Augusta National.  Viktor Hovland at $9,200 is still a big no for me.  Yes, he won at Valspar, but that doesn’t show he is ready to win a Masters.  Last year, Hovland played terribly but finished 3rd at the PGA Championship and T-2nd at FedEx St. Jude, so I just don’t get it.  Looking at his Masters record makes a decision to pass on him easy, he has struggled at Augusta National.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100 is hard to not think about, he was T-3rd last year at the Masters, his only top ten in 8 starts.  But he hasn’t played well in 2025, so pass on him.  Jordan Spieth at $9,000 is a hard pick.  He used to own Augusta National, but look at his last four years.  He was T-3rd in 2021 but missed the cut the next year.  He was T-4th in 2023 but missed the cut last year.  Since returning from wrist surgery, he has played okay, but not enough to spend $9,000 on him.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  Picking six players that play 72 holes is vital to playing well in DraftKings, and this list will help.  It’s a look at the records of those playing the Masters and who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Masters starts:

• Cameron Smith made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Jon Rahm made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,400.
• Tony Finau made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Scottie Scheffler made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 12,400.
• Collin Morikawa made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,500.
• Will Zalatoris made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 12 cuts in 13 starts for a 92.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,500.
• Adam Scott made 21 cuts in 23 starts for a 91.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Phil Mickelson made 28 cuts in 31 starts for a 90.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Matt Fitzpatrick made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Russell Henley made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.
• Keegan Bradley made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Xander Schauffele made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.
• Jordan Spieth made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Brooks Koepka made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,400.
• Justin Thomas made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,400.
• Bryson DeChambeau made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Russell Henley at $8,400 is a very good pick. Has had a good 2025, including being a winner at the Palmer.  Has been a part of Augusta, including a T-4th in 2023.  Will Zalatoris at $8,300, is good because of his great play at the Masters.  In three starts was 2nd in 2021, T-6th in 2022, and T-9th last year.  Cameron Smith at $8,200 is a must-take pick.  Has made 8 of 8 cuts at the Masters with five top ten finishes.  Was T-6th last year, yes hasn’t been great in LIV golf but showed some good play at Doral.  Corey Conners at $7,900 is a good buy. He has played great in 2025 and hasn’t played badly at Augusta, including three top tens in seven starts.  Tony Finau, at $7,800, may not be having a great 2025, but he always does well at Augusta, making 7 of 7 cuts.  Sepp Straka at $7,600 has played great in 2025 and has played well at Augusta, making 3 of 3 cuts.

Are there any Bargains out there?

Matt Fitzpatrick at $7,400 is a good buy considering he made 9 of 10 cuts at Augusta, including two top tens.  He was T-22nd last year and T-10th in 2023.  Patrick Reed at $7,300 is good for the Masters since he has made 9 of 11 cuts, including T-4th in 2023 and T-12th last year.  Adam Scott at $7,200 is good since he has made 21 of 23 cuts.  It still can get you a top 20.  Sergio Garcia at $7,100 is a dangerous pick, considering he has missed five of six cuts since winning in 2017.  But he has played so well on LIV in 2025 that you must take him this week.  Keegan Bradley at $7,000 is a great pick. He makes cuts at Augusta and has played well in 2025.  Phil Mickelson at $6,700 is a great price do to all of his great play at Augusta.  He remembers he was runner-up in 2023 and has played great on LIV golf in the last two starts.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Masters:

The key stat for the winner is, always been a proposal

• There are a few things that all winners at the Masters have in common.  First, it’s precise ball striking, like a Ben Hogan, length and power like Tiger Woods, deft touch with a putter on the steeply contoured greens like a Ben Crenshaw, and the mind and wisdom of a Jack Nicklaus.  2024 champion Jon Rahm is great off the tee and balls close to the hole.  Last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler never gets in trouble at Augusta. In 20 rounds has only made five doubles and just 49 bogeys.  Compared to making four eagles and 83 birdies.   All of these are what it takes to win the Masters.
• Precise ball hitting is a must. With steeply contoured greens, you have to position shots to the green in an area where you will set up an easy putt. That’s why players like Nick Faldo and Ben Hogan have five titles. If you look at the champions of the Masters, a poor putter usually doesn’t win.  Being able to avoid three putts is essential.
• Zach Johnson had six three-putts in 2007, and Bubba Watson had four in 2012, which dents our theory about three putts.  In looking further back in history, both Vijay Singh in 2000 and Tiger Woods in 2001 had more in the year they won the Masters than the previous seven champions of the 1990s put together.  That doesn’t mean that we will have a new trend. I will bet that the winner this year has the least three putts of anyone else in the field. Last year, Scottie Scheffler had just two three-putts and 33 one-putts over the 72 holes. In 2023, Scheffler had two three-putts and one four-putt over the 72 holes. The year before, 2021, Hideki Matsuyama had four three-putts. In 2020, Dustin Johnson only had one three-putt.  In 2019, Tiger Woods had two in his win.
• To show you how theories don’t work continually, look at the argument that says you have to hit it long to win at Augusta.  Yes, Tiger, Phil, Scottie, and Vijay hit the ball long, but past champions like Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Zach Johnson, Mark O’Meara, and Ben Crenshaw could be the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour.  Gosh, look at Jordan Spieth in 2015; he ranked 52nd in driving distance at Augusta in his winning year.  No matter what, length is significant; look at Tiger Woods’s victory in 1997. Reaching par-5s with wedges is a considerable advantage over players hitting into the greens with long irons and woods.  But again, theories don’t always work at the Masters. Look at Zach Johnson in 2007. He lay up on all the par 5s and played them in 11 under par.  Wet fairways and greens due to the weather bring in shorter hitters and give them a chance.
• The stats are great, but in reality, they don’t mean much when it comes to picking a winner at the Masters.  Since 1993 the only real favorite to win the Masters was Tiger Woods, who won in 1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 & 2019, and Phil Mickelson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  Also, I must say that the 2023 champion Jon Rahm and Scottie last year were important favorites who won.  Also, you have to wonder about the non-favorite who finds that special spark. How many folks placed a bet on 2019 winner Tiger Woods, or the year before with Patrick Reed, or 2016 champion Danny Willett? I would say not many people. Still, players like Sergio Garcia in 2017, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Bubba Watson in 2014, and Adam Scott winning in 2013 weren’t a big surprise. But nobody would have thought that Bubba Watson would win in 2012. It was a big surprise for Charl Schwartzel in 2011, Angel Cabrera winning in 2009, Trevor Immelman in 2008, and Zach Johnson in 2007.  Still, in the folklore of Masters champions, some surprise champions include Mike Weir, who won in 2003, and Vijay Singh in 2000.  Even more prominent surprise winners have been Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O’Meara, Bernhard Langer, and Ben Crenshaw, who came from out of the blue to win.  Still, one thing is certain: you must have a track record to win at Augusta.  The last time a non-winner from the PGA or European Tour won was back in 1948 when Claude Harmon, father of Butch, won his first and only individual title on the PGA Tour at the Masters.  As the old saying goes, records are meant to be broken, and who knows, maybe a non-winner will surprise us this week, but it’s doubtful.  So let’s see who could possibly be a “surprise winner” this year.  My first choice is Shane Lowry, who nobody is even thinking of and could come out of it a hero.
• I can say this: look at the top 30 or 40 players off the world rankings.  We hear it all the time how the best players seem to win majors.  If you go off the world rankings, Ben Curtis was 396 when he won the British Open in 2003, and Shaun Micheel was 169 when he won the 2003 PGA Championship.  At the Masters, you won’t find that kind of a winner. Since 1988, there have been only two Masters champions not in the top 50, #56 Zach Johnson in 2007 and #69 Angel Cabrera in 2009.  In 2020 Dustin Johnson was #1, and in 2019 Tiger Woods was 12th going into the Masters, 2018 Patrick Reed was 24th in the rankings, in 2017, Sergio Garcia was 11th, in 2016, Danny Willett was ranked 12th going into the Masters while Jordan Spieth in 2015 was 4th going into the Masters.  In the 35 years of the world rankings, the average Masters champion ranked 14th.  We’ve seen six #1s win; 20 of the 34 winners were in the top ten the week before their victory. Last year and in 2023, Scottie Scheffler was number one, and in 2021, Matsuyama was 25th the week before his Masters win. So you can expect someone who is low in the world rankings to win this week.  Not harping on this, but we could have that trend broken if Cameron Smith wins at 127 or Brooks Koepka wins; he is 249th in the rankings right now.
• Last, experience and wisdom are essential, so Jack Nicklaus has six titles. The last player to win the Masters in his first start is Fuzzy Zoeller, who did it back in 1979.  Of the 21 “rookies” at the Masters, there is not a single one I would bet a nickel on. Experience is always important at the Masters, so look for a winner, someone with a lot of experience.