BlogCharles Schwab Challenge Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Championship gave us a lot of great stories, from Scottie Scheffler putting on his big boy pants to play a great final nine after struggling on the front nine, to Rory McIlroy returning to a course that has been great in the past but played terribly last week.

But the big news had to be Quail Hollow and how it didn’t live up to its promise to be a great PGA Championship course. For years, the golf world has considered Kerry Haigh a hero. Haig is the chief championship officer for the PGA of America. Haigh has been setting up golf courses for the PGA Championship for 1990 35 years. For years, he has been the best at setting up golf courses, making them competitive and fair. For years, there have been very few complaints; he has been the unheard-of man who has set up great venues.
Over the last couple of years, there has been some quiet blowback in how courses have been set up. Things came to a head at this year’s PGA Championship as the course lacked the buzz to make it a great place to hold a championship. It’s not that Quail Hollow isn’t one of the best courses in the world; it is. But a spark was missing this week. A lot of it was due to the weather. In the days leading up to the first round, the Charlotte area received five feet of rain, and the course played differently. We can see a pattern in the last three PGA Championships. Until 2019, the PGA Championship was played in August and experienced heat, humidity, and golf courses that were dry and fast. When the PGA moved to May in 2019, little was thought about Bethpage, but yes, the course played differently as it was wet and very lush. In 2020, the PGA moved to August because of the pandemic, but little came out because it was played in San Francisco. For 2021, it was played on Kiawah Island, and since it was warm and the course was on the Atlantic Ocean, it played fast and dry. But we started seeing the change when Southern Hills held the PGA in 2022. Golf course maintenance has gotten so good that even in the Northeast, they could have snow in March and cold conditions in April, but by mid-May, the course would be perfect, with excellent conditions but a lush course. Before this week, we saw how much Southern Hills, Oak Hill, and Valhalla had played differently than in previous years. No matter how good maintenance can be, getting a course that plays fast and firm is impossible if you have a lot of rain and colder weather. The mystic of the four majors is they are played on firm and fast conditions. We no longer see that in the PGA Championship. This move shows that it was a mistake to change dates. This hasn’t been mentioned much in the last three years because the courses were in good shape and had great play. But this week,  we wonder if the PGA of America made a big mistake in choosing to play the ball up for the week and not allowing players to clean their balls in the fairways. In the history of the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, both organizations have tried to maintain the history and integrity of the game so as not to allow preferred lies. On the PGA Tour, they are very liberal in enabling players in wet conditions to pick up balls in the fairway, clean them, and improve their lies. However, in the history of the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, officials only allowed players to lift, clean, and place the ball once, and that was in the final round of the 2016 PGA at Baltusrol. A lot of rain fell in the morning before the final round, and the PGA decided to allow players to prefer lies. That decision drew criticism and complicated future PGAs on the issue of preferred lies. It came to a head this week as heavy rains brought very wet fairways, and it was impossible for players not to have numerous shots with mud on the ball. The PGA will never say that they could have made a bad decision, but for players, they were in uproar all week. Nobody wants to see the game’s integrity compromised, but not allowing players to clean muddy balls was not the right decision.
It will be interesting to see what happens at future PGA events. Next year, they go to Aronimink, just outside of Philadelphia, and wet fairways could be the same problem. Still, the decision to play in May could affect this championship for many years.

Is LIV Golf ready for major championship golf?
We know of the battle with LIV golf trying to make that league as good as the PGA Tour. The league has great players and the mystic of playing around the world. But the character of the courses isn’t that great. Sure, the courses are nice, but other than Valdarama, most courses are easy and not set up tough for the players. So the big question is, has LIV golf created a scenario in which its players have a tough time playing in the majors? We saw Bryson DeChambeau stumble over the weekend at the Masters and PGA Championship. We saw Jon Rahm stumbling on the last three holes to blow the championship. Of course, we won’t get the truth from the players, or anyone from LIV golf, but playing a league on easy courses may not help players. Another example is Brooks Koepka, who won the PGA Championship two years ago but has struggled since. Bryson winning the U.S. Open last year showed he is okay with playing in any tournament. But we all have to wonder if Bryson and Rahm were to return to the PGA Tour, they would be better in the majors; this will come up next month at the U.S. Open and then the British Open.

Rory McIlroy
Many felt that Rory would dominate this week. His record at Quail Hollow has been terrific, and he played well leading up to the PGA Championship. So when Rory birdied his first hole on Thursday, many thought that Rory would win. But it wasn’t to be as Rory only birdied one other hole in the first round and went on to shoot 74. So, what was Rory’s problem? It was easy to see his driving was terrible, as in the first round, he only hit four of 14 fairways. Rory was able to play well in the second round to shoot 69, which helped Rory make the cut on the number. But over the weekend, he shot 72-72 to finish T-47th. For the week, Rory hit just 26 of 56 fairways and ranked 68 out of 74 players. Hitting fairways wasn’t Rory’s only problem, he hit just 37 of 72 greens to rank T-60th.
Nobody knew what was wrong, but when Rory refused to talk to the media after each round, many started to look at what was wrong. By Saturday, the media may have realized Rory’s problem as it was found that earlier in the week, the USGA determined that Rory’s driver wasn’t legal, and he had to scramble for a replacement, and maybe that was the problem. Sure, it is a good excuse, but he wasn’t the only player told that his driver was illegal. The same happened to Scottie Scheffler, who switched to another driver and still won the tournament. I’m not making excuses for Rory, but it’s understandable that this became a big problem for him and set him off to his worst finish since missing the cut at the British Open last July.

How about Scottie
When Rory won the Players Championship and then the Masters, many wondered if there would be a change at the top. For the last 141 weeks, going back to the 2023 PGA Championship, Scottie has been number one in the Official World Golf Rankings. But after Rory won the Masters, things got tight, and it could have been just a matter of weeks before Rory overtook Scheffler. However, Scheffler, with his win at the Byron Nelson and PGA Championship, has taken a significant lead over Rory and should be at the top when the season ends in August at the Tour Championship.
Now, because of Rory’s win at Pebble and the Players, he is still the player of the year, but as the season is in the second half, it’s only a matter of time before Scottie can overtake Rory. I was lucky to watch Tiger Woods’s epic run between 1997 to 2019. I saw all his 15 Major wins and about half of his 82 PGA Tour victories. I saw something that I thought could never be topped. Week in and week out, Tiger was the best and worked very hard on it. He loved winning, and between 1999 and 2009, there wasn’t a week that the golfing world thought he wouldn’t win. Tiger had a particular passion for winning; he did everything he could to be in the best shape to win. That included making golf the number one importance in his life. I was told the degree of Tiger’s passion to win came up at a victory dinner after winning the Farmers Insurance Open. Halfway through the dinner, he grew impatient and told those at the table that it was time to start thinking about his next tournament.
As we learn more about Scottie, we learn that he possesses the same passion for working hard to win, but he can just as easily change his passion for his family and life outside of golf. Scottie is married to his childhood sweetheart, and she, along with his family, is number one. But at the same time, Scottie knows how to change his attitude to work on his game and wants nothing more than winning.
I never thought I would say this, but Scottie could be a better player than Tiger, but, at the same time, he has more drama in him. How many times have we seen Tiger come up with that key shot at the key time to win? You don’t see the same dramatics from Scottie, who is more consistent from the first hole to the last. Scottie is also more in control of his game and knows how to change things himself. We witnessed this in the final round of the PGA Championship when Scottie was not playing well. As he told the media after the round, it wasn’t like he was swinging poorly; things seemed not to go his way. After nine holes, he blew a five-shot lead and went into the back nine tied with Jon Rahm. After making a bogey on nine, he played his next six holes in three under. After hitting only two of seven fairways on the front, Scottie hit four of seven on the back, and by the time when he made birdie on 15, he was back to five up and could cruise from there. But again, Scottie won due to consistent play and didn’t do anything “dramatic” as Tiger did.
So Scottie will continue his excellent play and win several more times this year. I watched this year’s PGA from the comfort of my office recliner, and Scottie makes things look easy. So, I’m looking forward to watching Scottie continue this great conquest of golf.

Things you need to know about The Charles Schwab Challenge and Colonial:

This is the 78th year of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Commonly referred to as the Colonial National, it’s not the oldest event on the PGA Tour in longevity. Several events have been played longer. As for the same course, Augusta National and the Masters can claim to have been played on the same course longer on the PGA Tour, with Colonial being the second longest length a course has been used for a tournament. Colonial does have one distinction: it’s the only course in America that has hosted the U.S. Open (1941), the Players Championship (1975), and the U.S. Women’s Open (1991).

The tournament started in 1946 when it became apparent that the USGA wasn’t going to make Colonial an annual stop. John Marvin Leonard, who operated a store in downtown Fort Worth, inspired the event and wanted to see the best golfers in the world play on his course. Having Ben Hogan win its first two events gave the event and the course the recognition they needed.

Hogan went on to win five times at Colonial, and the course got the name “Hogan’s Alley.” At one time, Hogan practically held every record of the tournament. In the 21 times, Hogan played at Colonial, his highest finish was a T-56th in his last appearance in 1970 at the age of 58. Over Hogan’s career, he won 54 tournaments, with the previous victory coming in the 1959 Colonial. One of Hogan’s most enduring records at Colonial was the 65 he shot in the 3rd round in 1948. It took seven years for someone to tie the record when Chandler Harper did it in 1955, and it took 22 years for someone to beat the record when Dale Douglass did it with his 63 in 1970. Hogan loved Colonial and became a dues-paying member of the club. So it’s no surprise that the greatest of Ben Hogan’s life and golf career is celebrated in the Hogan Room with an audio-visual presentation of his career and some memories, including clubs and replicas of all the trophies and medals.

The history of Ben Hogan and Colonial didn’t start with his win in 1946. It was started in the early 1930s when a young Ben Hogan decided to play on the PGA Tour. He received financial backing from Marvin Leonard, the man who built Colonial. Hogan wasn’t a big success; he was often forced to drop off the tour and take a job to earn enough money to rejoin the tour. However, as soon as Hogan began making money on tour, he offered to settle his account with Leonard, who told him to forget about the money. However, in the 1950s, Hogan was able to pay back Leonard in an even bigger way. After Hogan launched the Ben Hogan golf equipment company, he offered Leonard the opportunity to purchase 50 percent of the company. Leonard seized the opportunity and, along with Hogan, made a handsome profit when the company was sold to AMF in 1960.

The Colonial Country Club was the vision of Leonard, a native of Fort Worth. He was considered a “workaholic” in the 1920s when his doctor told him he needed to slow down his pace. Leonard turned to golf and joined Glen Garden Golf Club and Rivercrest Country Club, the best courses of the time in Fort Worth. As Leonard’s interest in golf grew, he became more interested in all aspects of the course, including the types of grass. In the South, Bentgrass was thought impossible to grow, so all of the courses in Texas were Bermuda, which tended to be bumpy. Leonard thought it would be a good idea to have bent grass, and in trying to get Rivercrest to change, the club president got tired of the requests and told him, Marvin, if you’re so sold on bentgrass, why don’t you go build your own golf course and put it on that course?” So, in 1934, Leonard did just that.

He acquired 157 acres in Southwest Fort Worth and hired golf architect John Bredemus to build him a championship course. On January 29, 1936, the course was opened, and many thought it could be one of the most magnificent courses in the world. In the late 30s, Leonard felt Colonial was the best and lobbied the USGA to hold the U.S. Open at Colonial. Even though the Open was never played in the South, when Leonard offered $25,000 to hold the event at Colonial, it was given the 1941 Open. To ensure that the course withstood the challenge of the best players in the world in 1940, he called in Perry Maxwell to redo holes 3, 4 & 5.

Even with the rain that hampered the Open, it was a big success, and plans to start a yearly tournament at Colonial were discussed, but plans were put on hold because of World War II. When the war ended, the club decided to hold the Colonial National Invitational and, to add some prestige, offered a purse of $15,000, the third-largest sum on the PGA Tour. With a first-place check of $3,000 awaiting the winner, a field of 32 players teed off with Ben Hogan winning. Since then, 76 Colonials have been held with the course as it was in 1941, with minor revisions that were implemented in 1969 when several holes along the Trinity River were damaged by flooding.

One of the most significant distinctions of the Charles Schwab is the number of great players who have won it. In the 76 years of this event, 62 different players have won. Of those 62, 30 have won a major championship, and out of all the winners, 16 are in the World Golf Hall of Fame, so this event has an incredible resume of past champions. Every great shotmaker from the last 76 years has won at Colonial (except Tiger Woods). The list includes Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Julius Boros, Gene Littler, Roberto De Vicenzo, Lanny Wadkins, Nick Price, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Justin Rose, Ben Crenshaw, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson to name a few.

This event almost was lost when tournament host Dean & Deluca begged out of their sponsorship a few years early. Frankly, when I heard that Dean & Deluca was sponsoring a tournament in Texas, it made no sense. You see, Dean & Deluca is a bunch of high-end grocery stores like Whole Foods or Wegmans, but mainly in New York. They were planning on putting one in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but when those plans went away, so did Dean & Deluca on the PGA Tour. As we can see, with tournaments like Houston, you could be rolling along in great shape, but then your sponsor decides it’s not worth the $10 or $12 million-a-year investment, and that event is in trouble. The good news is that Colonial found a new sponsor in time for 2018, and Charles Schwab will continue on the PGA Tour as they have signed on to 2026.

Course information:

• Colonial Country Club
  Fort Worth, Texas
  7,289 yards     Par 35-35–70

The Colonial has a 75.1 rating and a slope rating of 138 from the championship tees. The course is very private. The tees, Fairways, and rough are Bermuda Grass while the greens are Bent.

It was designed and built by John Bredemus, with Perry Maxwell doing some touch-up work, and opened in 1936. In 1969, some holes were minimally revised to prevent flooding from the nearby Trinity River.

In 2000, the club completed a two-year course renovation, which started in November 1998 when they installed a new irrigation system. The primary work was rebuilding all 18 greens with new A-4 bentgrass. They also redesigned and rebuilt all 84 bunkers, giving them a new definition so that they could be seen from tees and fairways.

All of the green and bunker work was done three weeks after the 1999 tournament ended, and the membership did not reopen the full course until April 1st, 2000. The club has also planted close to a hundred trees that won’t be in play but will help define the holes in years to come.

We usually don’t talk about technology in golf, but when we talk about Colonial, one of the reasons for it losing its fear factor is technology.  Colonial is one of golf’s treasured layouts that can’t keep up with technology.  The course sits next to the Trinty River on the north and houses on the East, South, and West of it, so there is no way to add any yardage.  So the course is at the mercy of Mother Nature; if it gets windy, the course will play tough, but if not, it’s easy.  We go more into detail on this later.

For years, this course was feared by all the touring pros; if you look at the winning score pre-1996, you see years in which the winner was 7, 8, 9, and 10 under. However, starting in 1997, every year but two (8 under in 1999 and 9 under in 2014) saw scores in the double digits for the winners, showing how easy the course got.

One advantage the course has is being short. Most of the holes at Colonial are doglegs, so the driver is taken out of the hands of players, which means most of the holes you have to lay up, meaning more players hit more fairways.

One thing: the day after Emiliano Grillo won in 2023, Gil Hansen completely tore up and redone the course. Normally, this job takes 18 months, but they completely rebuilt and reseeded all of the fairways and greens. It will be interesting to see the reaction to the new renovations.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Colonial.

This is based on Colonial’s most important stats, based on data from last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, and data from all players in the field with 2025 stats. We take their rank for each statistic and then add up the four categories.
Colonial Country Club is a relic of a bygone era, where accuracy off the tee makes precision shotmaking on the greens essential. On top of that, when the course is dry with firm fairways and greens, add some wind, and it can play tough, as it has in recent years. But with no or little wind, along with wet conditions, you will see a lot of birdies and eagles, which has happened over the years.
The most important secret for those playing this week is that you can’t overpower this course. In years past, we have yet to see the long ball hitters do well. This year, Rory McIlroy, Niklas Norgaard, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Gary Woodland, who are all in the top ten in driving distance, are missing this year.
Now, Bryson DeChambeau has shown the vulnerability of Colonial Country Club in 2020. DeChambeau could fly over the trees and cut off the doglegs with his newfound power. Over four days at Colonial Country Club, DeChambeau flexed his muscles with 19 drives of 330 yards or more. DeChambeau missed a short putt on the 17th for bogey, and by the end of the day, he was one shot behind in a playoff with Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa. DeChambeau laid the groundwork for an all-out assault on Colonial Country Club. Surprisingly, after what happened in 2020, DeChambeau did not return to Colonial with him on LIV.

Every great shotmaker in the last 75 years has won at Colonial (except Tiger Woods, as Justin Rose was added to the list in 2018), including Hogan, Nicklaus, Snead, Boros, Littler, Wadkins, Price, Trevino, Casper, Watson, Scott, and Mickelson, to name a few. When looking at the key to playing well at Colonial, the most important statistic is ball striking (which the PGA Tour doesn’t include in course stats). Looking at the list for 2025, the odds of a player finishing in the top 30 of this list will finish at the top this week. Check out the list of players in the field this week: Rico Hoey (1), Steven Fisk (3), Scottie Scheffler (4th), Michael Thorbjornsen (5th), Kevin Yu (6th), Ricky Castillo (T-7th), J.J. Spaun (T-7th), Keith Mitchell (T-9th), and Alex Smalley (T-9th) to name those in the top 10.
So, who will win this week? I can tell you this: it will be a guy with much conditioning and a sharp iron. So who fits this bill perfectly? Scottie Scheffer. In looking at past championships, look at the 2022 winner, Sam Burns, who also fits the bill perfectly when you see that Burns was 1st in Strokes Gained Total at Colonial. So why is this so important in an era where overpowered courses are the norm? Only after the new renovation was there room to add yardage at Colonial. Since the course opened in 1946, only 169 yards have been added. With 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s being doglegs, players must throttle back and hit fairway woods and irons to keep it in play, especially when the course is dry with a lot of run. So, hitting it long gives you no advantage because length means nothing when you have to lay up, so short drivers will be in the same part of the fairway as long hitters. This is why players like Corey Pavin, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, and Daniel Berger have won this event.
Now, the course was getting beat up as technology was beating Mother Nature at Colonial, so after the 2023 event, bulldozers came in and gave Colonial a total facelift.
So here are the changes Gil Hanse’s renovation made last year to the yardage of each hole. The renovations added 80 yards from 2023, primarily by moving the greens around. Here are the holes that gained yardage:

1st – par 5 Went from 565 to 581, adding 16 yards
2nd – par 4 Went from 389 to 385, 4 yards shorter
3rd – par 4 Went from 483 to 475, 8 yards shorter
4th – par 3 Went from 247 to 248, adding 1 yardage
5th – par 4 Went from 481 to 476, 5 yards shorter
6th – par 4 Went from 406 to 410, adding 4 yards
7th – par 4 Went from 440 to 480, adding 40 yards
8th – par 3 Went from 199 to 194, 5 yards shorter
9th – par 4 Went from 407 to 413, 1 yard shorter

Front nine went from 3,617 to 3,662 with 45 yards added, 40 of that on the 7th hole

10th – par 4 Went from 408 to 407, 1 yard shorter
11th – par 5 Went from 635 to 639, adding 4 yards
12th – par 4 Went from 445 to 457, adding 12 yards
13th – par 3 Went from 190 to 199, adding 9 yards
14th – par 4 Went from 464 to 456, 8 yards shorter
15th – par 4 Went from 430 to 431, adding 1 yard
16th – par 3 Went from 192 to 197, adding 5 yards
17th – par 4 Went from 387 to 399, adding 12 yards
18th – par 4 Went from 441 to 442, adding 1 yard

Back nine went from 3,592 to 3,627, adding 35 yards

The renovations added little to the yardage, 80 yards, with 40 of them on the 7th hole. Another thing Hanse did was remove any trees, which is becoming a big deal with course renovations. So, Hanse added a few yards, ever so slightly. Seven of the holes are now shorter than in 2023. So, where is the change?

Hanse took it back to the way it was when the course opened in 1936. He moved most of the 27 fairway bunkers, so they come more into play. Hanse also significantly changed the par-3 holes, altering the 8th, 13th, and 16th. On the 8th, he moved the green 30 yards to the left, bringing the creek back into play on the left side. The other change that will be widely recognized is the removal of the concrete spillway that runs from the par-3 16th and intersects between the 17th and 18th fairways. The stream will still be part of the drama on the home stretch. Hanse moved the 16th green to the left to put the creek into play. Water now guards the left and right sides of the green.
He left the famous “Horrible Horseshoe,” holes three, four, and five, untouched.
The biggest changes were cosmetic. He redid all the greens, again using photos from the early days of the course to make them look like they did in the 1930s and 1940s. They also installed a system that runs cold water under the greens to help preserve the bent grass during the hot summer months.
When the players return this week, they will be surprised to see a course that looks like it did in the past. However, the course will have more hazards that will come into play and make scoring tougher.
The reaction was very positive as the players loved the changes and the fact that the course played dry and fast. They also raved at how well the new greens looked, and many talked about how the bent greens looked more like Bermuda grass. The scoring average wasn’t affected, as the winning score by Davis Riley was 14 under, but the day of being 20 under par is gone. The big goal is to get more marquee names, but that is a tough proposition when you see that last week was the PGA Championship, next week is the Memorial, followed by the Canadian Open and the U.S. Open.

The scoring average of the Colonial field last year was 70.82, and it was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 50 courses charted in 2024.

Here is a look at the scoring averages at Colonial over the last few years:
*2023 – Average was 70.72; it was the 9th hardest of the 58 courses that year.
*2022 – Average was 70.72; it was the 11th hardest of the 50 courses that year.
*2021 – Averaged 70.21, was the 18th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Averaged 69.57, was the 13th hardest of 41 courses that year. It played three-quarters of a shot easier at 69.57, mainly because it was played a month later when the course was dry with no wind. That is the key to this course. When there is no wind, it plays much easier, but when there is wind, as in 2019, it played to a 70.86 and was the 7th hardest course of the year.
*2019 – Averaged 70.86, was the 7th hardest of 49 courses that year.
*2018 – With favorable wind conditions and a soft course, it played to a 69.83 average, T-20th in course rankings.
*2017 – Colonial played to an average of 71.15 (lots of wind every day), making it the 7th hardest course on tour that year as the course played over a shot over par per round.
*2016 – Colonial played to an average of 70.20, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour, a quarter shot over par and almost half a shot harder than the course played in 2015, when it was 69.78 and the 21st hardest course to score on in 2015.
So why the difference? In 2015, there was rain and wind. The week before the tournament, there were flooding conditions, and the course was very wet. On top of that, the wind averaged between 10 and 15 mph.
In 2016, the course received less rain, and the winds blew up to 20 mph for the first three days, then died down a bit for the final round.
But in 2017, the wind blew around 20 mph daily, making the course very tough to play, the toughest since 2002, when the course averaged 71.21 and ranked sixth on the tour.
As we can see, Mother Nature and the wind dictate how tough each Charles Schwab Challenge will be.
The big question is, with the renovations, how tough will Colonial play in 2025? Before 1990, with the advent of metal drivers, better irons, and golf balls, Colonial was considered one of the toughest non-major events of the year. Between 1970 and 1989, the average winning score was 7 under par. Between 1990 and 2023, the average winning score was 13 under par.

The weather will dictate the average score. The last few weeks have been very hot in the Fort Worth area, with a fair amount of rain. But this week is calling for dry conditions. During the tournament, winds will average 12 to 15 mph, making conditions more difficult as scoring goes up.

Let’s look in depth at our four essential stats for Colonial:

Driving is essential, so our first category combines driving distance but mostly driving accuracy for the Charles Schwab. In 2023, the course ranked 14th on the PGA Tour in driving distance (all holes) and 13th in driving accuracy (out of 50 courses). Winner Davis Riley ranked 9th in driving distance (all holes) and T-38th in driving accuracy (32 of 56).

Here is a look at the driving Average at Charles Schwab for the last few years:
*2023 – Colonial ranked 7th in driving distance and 25th in driving accuracy.
Winner Emiliano Grillo was T-53rd in driving distance and T-25th (34 of 56) in accuracy.
*2022 – Colonial ranked 1st in driving distance and 13th in driving accuracy.
Winner Sam Burns was 12th in driving distance and T-38th (30 of 56) in accuracy.
*2021 –Colonial ranked 5th in driving distance and 16th in driving accuracy.
Winner Jason Kokrak was 8th in driving distance and 4th (41 of 56) in accuracy.
*2020 – Colonial ranked 8th in driving distance and 15th in driving accuracy.
Winner Daniel Berger was 24th in driving distance and T-17th (35 of 56) in accuracy.
*2019 – Colonial ranked 13th in driving distance and 3rd in driving accuracy.
Winner Kevin Na was 55th in driving distance and T-17th (34 of 56) in accuracy.
So driving it straight and in the fairway is important.

Our second category is critical for Colonial: getting the ball close to the hole from the fairway. If you look at the winners at Colonial, hitting the greens is something all the winners have in common. Since 2017, eight of the last eight winners have finished in the top eight, and 13 of the 28 have finished in the top five. Additionally, over the past 27 years, five winners have led Greens in Regulation.
Last year, Colonial ranked 6th out of 50 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 56.75% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Davis Riley, hit 49 of 72 greens (68.06%) for a T-3rd ranking.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation at the Charles Schwab over the years:
2023 – Greens in Regulation was 57.51%, the 5th hardest of the 58 courses that year.
Winner Emiliano Grillo hit 47 of 72 greens (70.83%) and finished T-8th.
2022 – Greens in Regulation was 59.59%, the 15th hardest of the 50 courses that year.
Winner Sam Burns hit 48 of 72 greens (66.67%) and finished T-7th.
2021 – Greens in Regulation was 61.27%, the 15th hardest of the 51 courses this year.
Winner Jason Kokrak shot 54 of 72 (75.00%) and finished 2nd.
2020 – Greens in Regulation was 67.45%, the 24th hardest of 41 courses this year.
Winner Daniel Berger hit 56 of 72 greens (77.78%) and finished T-4th.
2019 – Greens in Regulation was 60.17%, the 8th hardest of the 49 courses this year.
Winner Kevin Na hit 56 of 72 greens (77.78%) and finished 1st.
Again, I can’t stress how important it is to hit many greens.

Our third category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies is essential. Last year, Charles Schwab had 1,116 birdies, 3rd in birdie average, and 11 eagles, tied for 2nd. Winner Davis Riley was T-1st in the field with 21 birdies but didn’t make an eagle. He was 1st in Par Breakers with 29.17%.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers of the Charles Schwab winners in recent years:
2023 – Made 1,079 birdies (16th hardest) and 12 eagles (5th) as 15.78% of holes were under par, making it the 3rd hardest of the 58 courses that year.
Winner Emiliano Grillo made 18 birdies (his best) but one eagle, as 26.39% of the holes were under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
2022 – Made 1,114 birdies (19th hardest) and 19 eagles (T-12th) as 19.70% of holes were under par, making it the 9th hardest of the 50 courses that year.
Winner Sam Burns made 20 birdies (his best) but no eagles, as 27.78% of the holes were under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
2021 – Made 1,230 birdies (21st toughest) and 14 eagles (T-5th) as 17.77% of holes played were under par, making it the 10th toughest of the 51 courses that year.
Winner Jason Kokrak made 23 birdies (best) but had no eagles as 31.94% of the holes were under par, ranking him 1st in Par Breakers.
2020 – Made 1,489 birdies (27th toughest) and had 20 eagles (9th) as 19.50% of holes played were under par, making it the 12th toughest of the 41 courses this year.
Winner Daniel Berger made 22 birdies (T-2nd) but had no eagles. As 30.56% of holes were played under par, he ranked T-2nd in Par Breakers.
2019 – Made 1,111 birdies (16th hardest) and 12 eagles (4th) as 16.20% of the holes played were under par, making it the 3rd hardest of the 49 courses that year.
Winner Kevin Na made 17 birdies (T-2nd) and one eagle, and 25.00% of holes were played under par, ranking him second in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

Our final category is Strokes Gained Putting.
We chose this statistic because most past Charles Schwab winners are notoriously good putters. Last year, Colonial ranked 12th in putting average, 37th in one-putt percentage, 43rd in three-putt Avoidance, and 327th in putting inside ten feet, making 88.62% of his putts in that range.
Last year’s winner, Davis Riley, ranked 8th in Putting Average, 2nd in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 1st in Putting Inside ten feet, making 66 of 67 putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting as he gained 1.479 strokes gained.

Here is a look at Colonial’s putting stats and the Charles Schwab winners over the past few years:
2023 – Colonial ranked T-19th in Putting Average, 46th in One-Putt Percentage, 53rd in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 37th in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 89.27% of their putts in this range.
Winner Emiliano Grillo, ranked 4th in Putting Average, T-18th in One-Putt Percentage, T-22nd in 3-Putt Avoidance, and T-62nd in Putting Inside ten feet, making 59 of 68 putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting with a 7.439 Strokes Gained.
2022 – Colonial ranked T-17th in Putting Average, 34th in One-Putt Percentage, 31st in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 12th in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 87.51% of their putts in this range.
Winner Sam Burns, one of the best putters in golf, ranked 4th in Putting Average, T-8th in One-Putt Percentage, T-55th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 9th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 65 of 71 putts in this range. With all these stats, it is no surprise that he was 8th in Strokes Gained Putting with a 5.033 Strokes Gained.
2021 – Colonial ranked 29th in Putting Average, 37th in One-Putt Percentage, 47th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 34th in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 88.81% of his putts in this range.
Winner Jason Kokrak ranked T-9th in Putting Average, T-19th in One-Putt Percentage, T-45th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 10th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 60 of 64 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, with 5.501 strokes gained.
2020 – Colonial ranked 27th in Putting Average, 22nd in One-Putt Percentage, 30th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 21st in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 88.24% of his putts in this range.
Winner Daniel Berger ranked 8th in Putting Average, T-11th in One-Putt Percentage, T-445th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 62nd in Putting Inside ten feet, making 56 of 66 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 8th in Strokes Gained Putting, with 5.168 strokes gained.
2019 – Colonial ranked T-12th in Putting Average, 30th in One-Putt Percentage, 37th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 27th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 88.41% of the putts in this range.
Winner Kevin Na ranked 5th in Putting Average, T-25th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-Putt Avoidance, and T-12th in Putting Inside Ten Feet as he made 61 of 66 putts in that range. With these stats, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting with 7.033 strokes gained.

As you can see, to win at Colonial, you have to hit a lot of fairways and greens and putt well. Right now, that is Scottie Scheffler. So, do we hand him the trophy right now?

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of times a drive is in the fairway.

*Greens in regulation: Tells us which players hit the most greens during the week

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so par breakers are the percentage of time scores that are under par.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

The 120 of the 135 players from this year’s field with stats from 2025:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned
We have compiled a database covering the last 55 events on the PGA Tour, beginning at the start of the 2024 season and ending with the 2025 PGA Championship. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 70 playing in at least eight events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys who will make lots of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $13,700
  Tommy Fleetwood – $10,000
  Daniel Berger – $9,900
  Jordan Spieth – $9,800
  Hideki Matsuyama – $9,600
  Maverick McNealy – $9,500
  J.T. Poston – $9,400
  Robert MacIntyre – $9,300
  Harris English – $9,200
  Aaron Rai – $9,100
  Keith Mitchell – $9,000

Off the bat, we have to make a decision on Scottie Scheffler at $13,700.  As I wrote above, he has had many things happen to him in the last few weeks, but no matter what his price, he usually gets the job done and racks up a lot of points.  Last year he was T-2nd, in 2023 T-3rd, in 2022 was 2nd, and all year has played great, don’t see any reason not to pick him other than the high price.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,000 is overpriced and I have to say no to.  His DraftKings average of 72.8 points per event makes his $10,000 price too high.  I am trying to justify Daniel Berger at $9,900.  He has played great since Phoenix and has won at Colonial, but the price is too high for him.  The big decision for Jordan Spieth at $9,800 is which Jordan Spieth shows up on Thursday.  In his favor, he plays well at Colonial and played well a few weeks ago in Dallas.  But he is still not playing the way he used to, I think it’s best to pass on him.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,600 is an easy no, not playing great, and never played at Colonial.  Maverick McNealy at $9,500 is a no for me. I don’t think the course suits his game, and he just hasn’t played well lately.  J.T. Poston at $9,400 is priced a bit high for me, but has played consistently in 2025 and will get you a good number of DraftKings points.  Robert MacIntyre at $9,300 is a no for me, as his putting is not up to Colonial standards. Harris English at $9,200 is the right person at the right time.  Has to play well on tough courses; he was T-11th at Truist and T-2nd at the PGA Championship.  Aaron Rai at $9,100 is worth a look.  His game is suited for Colonial as he is one of the straightest drivers on tour and hits a lot of greens.  Keith Mitchell at $9,000 is a toss-up pick.  Not that great of a driver or putter, but has played great other than the missed cut at the PGA.  I say no, but it’s still worth a look.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Brian Harman at $8,500 is worth a look, his game should suit Colonial, and his record is good on the course.  He could be that sneaky player who does well and pulls out a win.  Lucas Glover at $8,100 is a good choice, has played well at Colonial and his tee to green game is one of the best.  Harry Hall at $8,000 is a very good pick, has been playing well, and did finish T-3rd at Colonial in 2023.  Ryan Gerard at $7,900 is another good pick. He has had a lot of good things happen to him in 2025 and is playing well.  Alex Smalley at $7,700 is a good pick because he drives well, hits a lot of greens, and putts well.  He has played great lately. I look for him because of his cheap price.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,500 is cheap and makes cuts, he is a good driver and could surprise us this week.

Any bargains out there?

Tom Hoge, at $7,400, makes a lot of cuts and has played well at Colonial the last two years. Nico Echavarria, at $7,000, is playing well. He is a good driver and great putter. Mac Meissner, at $6,800, played well last year, finishing T-5th. Maybe this is a good course for him.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Charles Schwab Challenge:

Key stat for the winner:

Experience at Colonial seems to be an essential part of winning.  Since 1996, 26 players have won at Colonial and have a total of 291 victories, so that means an average of 12.2 wins for each of the champions.  Last year’s winner Davis Riley and Emiliano Grillo won twice, 2022 winner Sam Burns won four times, Jason Kokrak won twice, Daniel Berger and 2019 champion Kevin Na won for the 3rd time and all won again within six months, Kokrak at Houston, Berger at the AT&T and Na at the Shriners Hospitals.  2018 winner Justin Rose won three other times after winning the Colonial, 2016 champion Jordan Spieth won for the 8th time, while 2014 champion Adam Scott won for the 11th time.  In 2012, Zach Johnson won for the 8th time in his career, as winners range from Tom Watson with 34 wins and Nick Price with 18 to Sergio Garcia, who made Colonial his first PGA Tour win in 2001.  The fact is that rookies don’t win at Colonial.  Yes, Sergio Garcia won his first PGA Tour at Colonial, but he had won in Europe.  The same with the next first-time winner Ian Baker-Finch in 1989, he had won in Australia.  In looking at the 76-year history of Charles Schwab, only eight first-time winners have done the deed, which tells us to look for an experienced person to win.

Another key:

Look at all of the champions; you will see one thing in common: they are accurate drivers of the ball, which historically has been very important in winning at Colonial.  The bottom line is wild drivers don’t win here.  Of course, there is always an exception to the rule is 2023 winner Emiliano Grillo hit 34 fairways and ranked T-25th.  In 2016, Jordan Spieth only hit 38 fairways and ranked T-54th.  The previous year, Chris Kirk only hit 28 fairways and ranked T-60th; in 2007, Rory Sabbatini only hit 29 fairways and ranked T-60th.   However, in 2020, Daniel Berger was T-17th, the same as Kevin Na. In 2018, Justin Rouse was 6th in driving accuracy. In 2017, Kevin Kisner hit 40 fairways and ranked 1st, getting us back to the era of between 1998 and 2005 when all the winners didn’t rank higher than 9th in fairway accuracy, with seven of them being in the top-five. Driving accuracy is still critical in winning this event.

An important stat to look at to gauge the champion this week is strokes gained tee-to-green.
Look at this list of players for 2025 in strokes gained tee-to-green. I feel that one of those in the top 30 of this list will probably be the winner this week.  1st on the list is Scottie Scheffler, Daniel Berger is 4th, Alex Smalley is 8th and Tommy Fleetwood is 10th.

Shot-making is almost a lost art, and if you look at all of the champions in this millennium, all of them were great shotmakers.