BlogU.S. Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This is the new direction of the USGA. It’s a different organization from a few years ago, with Michael Whan at the helm. We are now seeing a new direction for the USGA; over the last few years, the USGA has introduced new courses, such as Chamber Bay, Erin Hills, and Torrey Pines. In the case of Erin Hills and Torrey Pines, the decision was motivated by financial considerations, as they could accommodate more people and provide hospitality tents on-site. However, if you examine future venues, all of them are established U.S. Open venues. Over the next 18 years, ten courses that have hosted U.S. Opens will host more U.S. Opens. There isn’t an open date until 2040, so it will be at least a generation before any new courses can have a U.S. Open. Oakmont, this year’s Open site, will hold three U.S. Opens in the next 24 years.
Yes, Oakmont has been an institution for the USGA since its first appearance in 1927 and will continue to be so. Now, Oakmont will hold the most U.S. Opens, four in the next 22 years. Now Pebble Beach comes close; in the next 19 years, it will have four Opens (2027, ’32, ’37 & ’44). Next year’s venue, Shinnecock Hills, will host two events (2026 and 2036); Merion will have two (2030 and 2040). Rounding out the list are Winged Foot (2028), Riviera (2031, Oakland Hills (2034), The Country Club (2038), and Los Angeles Country Club (2039).  Will this change in the future? For people like me, in my late 60s, I will be long gone before that happens.

Let’s talk about Rory for a minute or two:
Boy, talking about going from the Pinnacle to the dumper in just a few weeks, Rory McIlroy holds the record. When he won the Masters, everyone thought that we were going to see a streak like Tiger Woods had in 2000. But that didn’t happen. Rory disappeared, off to London to put the finishing touches on the home at Wentworth, the house he will now live in during the summer. Rory showed up with Shane Lowry to defend their Zurich team title and finished T-12th. He seemed to play ok at the Truist Championship, but he wasn’t happy with his driver. The next week at the PGA Championship, strange things happened. He refused to talk to the media and seemed frustrated with his game and his driver. By Sunday, the truth had leaked that his driver was illegal, as revealed by USGA testing at Quail Hollow. It was amusing: Scottie Scheffler encountered the same issue; his driver was deemed illegal, but he was still able to play with his backup driver and win the Championship. For Rory, it was a struggling week as he finished T-47th on a course that he has owned throughout his career. The strange thing about the week was that he was very quiet and refused to talk with any of the media. Rory took two weeks off and reappeared to defend his Canadian Open title. He spoke to reporters, telling them how much the PGA Championship had frustrated him due to the numerous weather delays, his struggles with his game, the leak of his driver, and the week not going well. Still, many thought that Rory would get over all of that and play well at the Canadian Open. That never happened as his game seemed to get worse; he shot 71-78 to miss the cut. Again, his big problem was the driver; he hit only 13 of 28 greens, one of the worst performances with the driver. So it’s now the U.S. Open on a course where, if you struggle with the driver, you’ll have a terrible week. The big question is, in a matter of just days, can he reset and find some magic with any driver? As good as Rory is, I just don’t see it happening on this course, one that is not very forgiving. So, I am taking a pass on Rory this week, and you should follow suit.

So, who will win is the million-dollar question?
As we mentioned in our fantasy key stats for the nine previous Opens played at Oakmont, a good player typically wins. We also discussed how great Oakmont is; it could be the best test of golf on any course. It rates on the same level as courses like Augusta National, Shinnecock Hills, Winged Foot, Oakland Hills, Muirfield, and Carnoustie in Scotland. Of the 156 players who will tee it up on Thursday, I can only see 20 players with a chance. Those on the list include Rory, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, and Jordan Spieth. Of the newly bred-players who haven’t won a major yet, I like Ben Griffin, Tyrrell Hatton, Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Harris English, and Ryan Fox. After that, I don’t see anyone else winning. If I had to pick only three players this week, I would go with Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Jon Rahm. It’s a big toss-up between Rahm and DeChambeau; it’s tough to defend. Still, guys like DeChambeau, he was T-15th at Oakmont in 2016. Also, keep an eye on Shane Lowry; he was a nobody in 2016 and went into the final round leading but shot 76 to finish T-2nd.

One last thing about this week that shows a change in golf. One of the reasons for the limited number of players having a chance is the high number of rookies. This year, 44 of the 156 players have never played in the U.S. Open. Last year, the number at Pinehurst was 36. In 2023 at LACC, 49 U.S. Open rookies were there, the same as in 2022 at Brookline. In 2021, at Torrey, there were 43. In 2020 at Winged Foot, there were 39, the same number that played Pebble in 2019, but we have seen more. In 2018, 50 of the 156 players were U.S. Open rookies. This number seems remarkable until you realize it’s par for the course at the U.S. Open. In 2017, there were 52 U.S. Open rookies; in 2016, there were 51; in 2014, there were 53 rookies. All of these are extraordinary numbers. In the history of the U.S. Open, the year with the most first-timers was 86 in 1919. That was the first Open played after World War I, and the field increased in size. If you look at the most first-timers since World War II, it was 75 in 1948.
The last time a rookie won the U.S. Open was 112 years ago with Francis Ouimet in 1913, and I would bet my house that streak won’t get broken this week.

Championship information:
The inaugural U.S. Open was slated for September of 1895. However, the Open and the inaugural U.S. Amateur were delayed due to a scheduling conflict with the more popular sporting event, America’s Cup yacht races. Finally, the first U.S. Open was played on October 4, 1895, on a nine-hole course at the Newport Golf Club in Newport, Rhode Island. The first U.S. Amateur tournament overshadowed the first U.S. Open, played concurrently at the Newport Golf and Country Club. The small field consisted of just 10 professionals and one amateur. Horace Rawlins, the assistant at Newport Golf and Country Club, captured the first U.S. Open. The format for the tournament was 36 holes squeezed into one day, with four trips around the nine-hole course in Newport.

In 1898, the U.S. Open switched to a 72-hole format, consisting of two days of 36 holes. For the first few years, the field was routinely riddled with amateurs as well as British and Scottish professionals. The popularity of the event dwindled until Americans began to dominate, starting with John McDermott in 1911. The U.S. Open experienced a dramatic jump in popularity in 1913 when Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old American amateur, defeated famed British professionals Harry Vardon and Ted Ray in a playoff. Popularity for the U.S. Open began to soar even higher in the early 1920s. In 1922, the U.S. Open sold tickets to the event for the first time. A year later, Bobby Jones, an amateur golfer from Georgia, won his first of four U.S. Opens. By 1924, an enormous influx of applicants to compete in the U.S. Open forced the USGA to hold sectional qualifying to determine who would receive an entry into the field.

In 1926, the tournament’s format was again changed. Players would play 72 holes, 18 holes on each of the first two days, followed by 36 holes on the third and final day. The changes to the U.S. Open format were paralleled by an almost systematic phase-out of the amateur player. Though amateurs still compete annually, John Goodman was the last amateur to win the U.S. Open, taking the 1933 crown at the North Shore Country Club in Glenview, Illinois. Jack Nicklaus’s second-place finish at the 1960 U.S. Open is the best finish by an amateur since Goodman’s victory in 1933.

The U.S. Open saw relatively few changes between 1935 and 1954. In 1954, the course was roped off from tee to green for the first time and televised nationally for the first time. Arnold Palmer’s historic comeback victory in 1960 further boosted the tournament’s popularity. However, it was the 1962 U.S. Open, in which Jack Nicklaus defeated Arnold Palmer in a Monday playoff, that catapulted “America’s Championship” to the forefront of the golf world.

Over the next 18 years, from 1962 to 1980, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win four U.S. Opens. Fans flocked to the U.S. Open in droves to see the budding rivalry. In 1965, to accommodate the growing fan base, the U.S. Open switched from a three-day, 72-hole format to its current four-day, 72-hole format.

In 1971, Lee Trevino’s victory at the U.S. Open was the catalyst, as he went on to play arguably the three most significant weeks of golf. After winning the U.S. Open, Trevino captured the Canadian Open crown, followed by the British Open crown. A feat that to this day has not been matched. Trevino and the already well-established Nicklaus and Palmer created a trio that further launched the event into the American limelight. In 1977, ABC began live coverage of the final two rounds of U.S. Open play. By 1982, the upstart cable channel ESPN had begun broadcasting the Thursday and Friday rounds of the championship.

In 1994, the U.S. Open at Oakmont was the venue for Ernie Els’ first victory in America. Els and Loren Roberts both shot 74, while Colin Montgomerie shot a 78. Els claimed the title by defeating Loren Roberts on the second sudden-death playoff hole. Els and a slew of other foreign champions paved the way for the first qualifying tournaments held outside the United States.

But for the masses, nothing will compare to Tiger Woods’s victory in 2000 at Pebble Beach. First of all, it was the 100th U.S. Open. Secondly, it was held on one of the world’s great courses, which comprised a stunning oceanside course that captivated viewers and fans, as well as a challenging course where the wind played a significant factor. It was also perfect timing for Tiger Woods to win his first Open title in a dominating way. At 12 under, he finished 15 strokes ahead of Ernie Els and Miguel Angel Jimenez to become the first double-digit winner relative to par. The win brought the U.S. Open into a different focus as it began its second decade of play.

Course information:
Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, Pennsylvania
7,372 yards
Par will be 35 – 35  = 70

Based on the course setup for the championship, the Course Rating is 77.5. Its Slope Rating is 147.

A couple of oddities of the course: the 8th hole will play between 289 yards. In 2007, it played to 300 yards on the final day, the longest par 3 in U.S. Open history. In 2016, it played at just 299 yards, and this year, it will be ten yards shorter. The par 5, 12th hole will play at 632 yards. This is 52 years shorter than the 684 it played in the first round at Oakmont in 2016, making it the longest par 5 in the U.S. Open.

About Oakmont:
The golf course itself was the vision and creation of Henry Fownes, the founder of Oakmont Country Club. Construction on the course began in September of 1903. A team of around 150 men and two dozen mules worked tirelessly to complete the course before winter. However, six weeks later, with twelve holes finished, construction ceased for the winter. The other six holes were completed in the spring of 1904, with the course opening for play that summer.

Fownes’ goal from the outset was to design a course that would withstand the evolution of golf throughout the ages. When the course finally opened, Henry Fownes believed he had achieved perfection in his first attempt as a golf course designer. Consequently, he never built another golf course. To this day, Oakmont remains relatively unchanged, a point of pride among the Oakmont membership. The only significant alteration to the course came in 1951 when the 8th hole green was moved 10 yards to make way for the Pennsylvania Turnpike. To think that 17 of the 18 greens have not been altered since they were built over a hundred years ago.

A significant change occurred at Oakmont in the 1960s. A massive tree-planting operation turned what was once an open, links-style course into a woodland course that forced the golfer to hit blind shots frequently. The changes at Oakmont were undone a few decades later. After the 1994 U.S. Open at Oakmont, the course was stripped of over 7,000 trees over a decade in time for the 2007 U.S. Open. However, Ron Whitten reported in Golf Digest that an additional 7,500 trees have been removed since the 2007 Open. Initially, the decision to remove the trees was met with hostility, to the extent that the first trees were taken down at night. This marks the most drastic change to the golf course from the 1994 U.S. Open at Oakmont to the one in 2007 and now. Other minor changes were made before the 2007 Open, including a 284-yard lengthening and the addition of new bunkers on the 2nd hole. The hole most affected by the lengthening is the Par 3 Number 8. It could play as long as 300 yards. As for the bunkers, which reside on the right-hand side of the fairway, they have effectively trimmed the already small landing area. The course is more of a links-style course than a woodland course.

One of the most significant impacts of Oakmont is the bunkering, which has been a key factor in its fame. When Henry Fownes was dreaming and planning the course, he envisioned building a Scottish links course despite Oakmont being 300 miles from the sea. One of the items he couldn’t duplicate at Oakmont was the pot bunkers of Scotland due to the poor subsurface drainage in the clay soil. Oakmont’s bunkers had to be shallow, and Fownes adjusted to this deficiency by having the bunkers dragged with a rake that gouged deep furrows into the sand. When a ball landed in a bunker, a player found it nearly impossible to get the ball out because of the furrowed bunkers, which gave it the same effect as a buried golf shot, which meant that there was nothing to do but explode it out to a safe lie and sacrifice a stroke. There hasn’t been a professional who has ever talked kindly about the way Oakmont’s bunkers were raked, and, in all of the championships that have been played at Oakmont with the furrow bunkers, Willie Turnesa is the only person to have any success with them. In the 36-hole finals of the 1938 Amateur, Turnesa was able to get up and down 14 of 16 times he visited the sand, gaining the name “Willie the Wedge” for his efforts. These rakes were last used in the U.S. Open competition in 1962 and were eliminated from the club in 1964.

Talking about bunkers, in the first years after the club was founded in 1903, there were something like 350 bunkers at Oakmont because Fownes felt that “a shot poorly played should be a shot irrevocably lost.”  Since then, the number of bunkers has gradually been reduced; in the 1953 Open, there were 250. Since that Open, additional bunkers were removed from the course so that, by the 1962 Open, there were slightly more than 200 of them. For the 1973 and 1983 Open, there were 187 bunkers. In the 1994 Open, there were 180 bunkers on the course. For the 2007 and ’16 U.S. Open, there will be a total of 210 bunkers. As Mike Davis, the USGA president and the man who was in charge of setting up the course, said, “When you get in one of them, you are not going to get to the green.”  Since 2016, the number of bunkers has been reduced to 168, with only about 50 of them in play, as all the bunkers underwent a significant renovation in 2023. This renovation, led by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, included upgrades of approximately 150 yards of the course. The holes they made changes to were the 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 13th, and 17th.

There is no doubt about it. The talk of the players this week will be how tough Oakmont is. The touring pros haven’t played a course this tough since their last visit to Oakmont in 2016.  One last thing: in 2016, 14 of the 18 holes were played over par. The hardest was the 1st at 4.451, while the 17th was the easiest at 3.885.

Still, the main story this week will be how tough the course plays. On a calm day, Oakmont is the most challenging course in America to play, with Carnoustie and Winged Foot behind them. What I see happening is just what happened last year at Pinehurst – an epic battle like the one we saw between Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, with Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and Matthieu Pavon all in contention coming down the stretch. That produced compelling golf, which is what the USGA wants.

Still, there is a lot of interest this year, and if the weather holds up, it could be good theater.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Oakmont:

This is based on key statistics for Oakmont, using data from the 2007 and 2016 U.S. Opens held at Oakmont, as well as data from all players in the field with statistics through 2025. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories. In addition to these events, Oakmont has hosted a total of nine U.S. Opens (1927, 1935, 1953, 1962, 1973, 1983, 1994, 2007, and 2016). This being the 10th U.S. Open, it’s the most of any club; second is Baltusrol, which no longer will host any U.S. Opens.
Oakmont has hosted three PGA Championships – 1922 (won by Gene Sarazen), 1951 (won by Sam Snead), and 1978 (won by John Mahaffey).
Oakmont is hosting its 18th USGA event, the most of any club in the United States. The future holds Oakmont winning many more championships. It was announced in August 2021 that Oakmont would be a U.S. Open anchor site, hosting the championship in 2034, 2042, and 2049, as well as the U.S. Women’s Open in 2028 and 2038, the Walker Cup in 2033, and the U.S. Women’s Amateur in 2046.

For many purists, Oakmont is considered the finest course to hold a championship. At the U.S. Open, the Par is 70 and will play to around 7,372 yards, 153 yards longer than it played in 2016. The course has a rating of 77.5 and a slope of 147. The course features bent grass on both the tee boxes and fairways. The rough will be between 4 and 8 inches of Kentucky Bluegrass mixed with perennial ryegrass, and the greens are a minuscule 0.09-inch cut of Poa Annua grass. This thin cut leads to lightning-quick greens all over the course. In fact, the greens will be played between 14 and 15 on the stipmeter. Oakmont, over the years, has received critical acclaim from all aspects of golf. It has been routinely recognized as one of the top 10 courses in America since the 1960s. In this year’s edition, Oakmont ranks fifth among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Golf Courses”, trailing only Pine Valley, Augusta National, Cypress Point, and Shinnecock. Additionally, it received special distinction in 1987 when it became the first golf course to be designated a National Landmark.

No two ways about it, the talk of the players this week will be how tough Oakmont is. The touring pros haven’t played a course this tough since the last time they played at Oakmont in 2016. Yes, the course played to a scoring average of 73.56. Shinnecock Hills in 2018 played to a 74.65 average, Muirfield Village in 2020 played to a 74.01 average, and Bay Hill in 2020 played to a 74.11 average. In 2020 Winged Foot played to a 74.91 average. The point is, Oakmont is the most feared course for anyone playing competitive golf. No matter what event, a woman’s major, or the U.S. Amateur of the best players this week, all know that Oakmont will be one of the hardest challenges they will ever play on. A lot of rain has fallen already in the last couple of days and even if Oakmont is completely benign, the winning score could be anywhere from even to 3 over par. The point is, this is one really hard course.

Of the 156 players, only about 20 have any chance of winning. Look at the previous nine champions at Oakmont, 8 have one thing in common, they have all won multiple majors. Only Sam Parks, who won in 1935, is the only player not to win another major. Just look at the list of majors of the most recent winners. 2016 champion Dustin Johnson and 2007 champion Angel Cabrera won the Masters. 1994 champion Ernie Els won another U.S. Open plus two British Opens. Larry Nelson won at Oakmont in 1983; he also won the 1981 and ’87 PGA Championship. In 1962, Jack Nicklaus won the first of his 18 major championship titles, while Ben Hogan won the 8th of his 9 majors in 1953. So you get it, only the best seem to win at Oakmont. It’s not only the winners, look who was runner-up at Oakmont. In 2016 Jim Furyk and Shane Lowry were runner-ups; both won a major. In 2007 Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk were runner-ups. In 1994 Colin Montgomerie lost in the playoff to Ernie Els. Yes he never won a major, but he was runner-up in five different majors. In 1983 when Larry Nelson won, just a shot back in 2nd was Tom Watson. In 1962 when Nicklaus won, he beat Arnold Palmer in a playoff. In 1953 Hogan won by six shots over Sam Snead who has won seven majors. In 1935 when Sam Parks won, Walter Hagen who won 11 majors was 3rd, just three shots back. In 1927 Tommy Armour beat Harry Cooper in a playoff, but a shot out of the playoff was 7 time major winner Gene Sarazen. So you get the point, in all nine previous U.S. Opens held at Oakmont, the cream always rises to the top.

So we can see that Oakmont is a very demanding course. It would be helpful if a player could hit the ball hard, long, and straight. Data is very limited for the nine U.S. Opens played at Oakmont, as the ShotLink stats we are accustomed to are unavailable. We have some non-shotlink data from 2007 and 2016.
So, in the case of driving distance, only two holes have stats, unlike a regular PGA Tour event, in which every hole is measured. In 2007, the course averaged 290.3 yards, the 24th-longest course on the PGA Tour that year. In 2016, the course averaged 286.6 yards, the 33rd-longest course of the year. In 1994, winner Ernie Els’s average drive was 276.1 yards, which ranked 5th. In 2007, winner Angel Cabrera’s average drive was 310.9 yards, ranking him second. In 2016, Dustin Johnson drove an average of 317.1 yards and was the longest driver of that U.S. Open. The trend may be for longer drivers doing better.

One of the keys to playing well at Oakmont is hitting fairways. In 1994 winner Ernie Els hit 32 of 56 Fairways (57.14%) and ranked T-43rd. In 2007, the field hit 52.09% of the fairways and was the 5th hardest course for the year. Winner Angel Cabrera hit 27 of 56 fairways (48.21%) and ranked T-48th. In 2016, the field hit 57.18% of the greens and ranked 16th hardest of the 50th courses ranked that year. Winner Dustin Johnson hit 36 of the 56 (64.29%) and ranked T-18th.

The big key to playing well at Oakmont is hitting greens. In 1994, winner Ernie Els hit 51 of 72 greens (70.83%) and ranked 1st in the field. In 2007, the field achieved a score of 52.00% on the greens and was again the third hardest of 54 courses for the year. Winner Angel Cabrera hit 47 of 72 greens (65.38%) and ranked T-3rd. In 2016, the field hit 58.58% of the greens and ranked 9th hardest of the 50 courses ranked that year. Winner Dustin Johnson hit 55 of the 72 (76.39%) and ranked 1st.

So here we go with our four key categories. Our first key stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Unfortunately, this statistic was not available for the Opens played at Oakmont, so we only have hard data to work with. However, we can see who is best over the year to determine this statistic. This is a good barometer since you must hit it off the tee and play well with iron shots to the greens.
*1994 – Winner Ernie Els hit 32 of the 56 fairways, which was T-43rd. He hit 51 of 72 greens and ranked 1st.
*2007 – The field hit an average of 52.00% of the greens and ranked 3rd, while the field hit 52.06% of the fairways and ranked 5th. Winner Angel Cabrera hit 48.21% of the fairways, finished T-48th, and 65.38% of the greens, and was T-3rd.
*2016 – The field hit 57.18% of the fairways at Oakmont, which was 16th, and 58.58% of the greens, which was 9th best.
Winner Dustin Johnson was 1st in greens in regulation, hitting 76.39% of the greens and T-18th in hitting 64.29% of the fairways.

Scrambling is our second key stat, primarily due to the history of many missed greens and the difficulty of getting it up and down. At Oakmont, the course is adamant about getting it up and down, and historically, we can see those who do well scramble well.
*1994 – Only 45.45% of the missed greens got up and down, making Oakmont the hardest course to get up and down on. Unfortunately for winner Ernie Els, he didn’t rank well in scrambling.
*2007 – Only 37.95% of the greens the field missed, got it up and down, making Oakmont the hardest course to get up and down on. Winner Angel Cabrera didn’t perform very well in terms of getting it up and down, as he only managed to get it up and down on 9 of the 25 greens he missed, which ranked T-50th.
*2016 – Only 42.72% of the greens the field missed got up and down, making Oakmont the hardest course to get up and down on. Winner Dustin Johnson made scrambling one of the keys to winning as he got it up and down on 13 of the 17 missed greens and was the best in the field.

Another essential skill for success is putting. For our third category, we chose to make putts inside 10 feet.
Now, the USGA never kept this statistic, so we don’t have any historical reference to prove this. The most notable statistic is the overall putting average, which has some flaws due to the high number of missed greens.
In 1994, Ernie Els took 123 putts (30.75 per round) and ranked T-44th.
In 2007, the course ranked 2nd in Overall Putting average and 1st in putting average. Angel Cabrera took 124 putts (31.00 per round) and he ranked T-28th.
In 2016, the course ranked 1st in Overall Putting average and 2nd in putting average. Dustin Johnson took 124 putts (31.00 per round) and ranked T-49th.

Our final category is one in which players must find a way to make birdies and eagles to score well. Birdies and eagles are very dear at the U.S. Open, so Par Breakers, which is making eagles and birdies, is significant for Oakmont.

So here is a look at the Par Breakers for the U.S. Open Course and winners at Oakmont:
*1994 – Only 1,125 birdies were made, and even though 26 courses had fewer, they didn’t have full fields of 156 players. So, for the year, it yielded the fewest birdies at 2.52 per round. Now, for eagles, 27 eagles were made for the week. Winner Ernie Els made 17 birdies (5th) and one eagle, playing 25.00% of his holes under par and ranking T-1st in Par Breakers.
*2007 – Only 777 birdies were made, and even though 14 courses had fewer, they didn’t have full fields of 156 players. So, for the year, it yielded the fewest birdies at 1.78 per round. Now, 7 eagles were made for the week, which was the 3rd lowest of any full-field event on the PGA Tour. So that meant that the field averaged 9.97% under par holes, and again it was the lowest figure on the PGA Tour for 2005.
Winner Angel Cabrera made 13 birdies (T-2nd) and no eagles, as 18.06% of the holes were under par, ranking him T-2nd in Par Breakers.
*2016 – Only 1,042 birdies were made, and even though 16 courses had fewer, they didn’t have full fields of 156 players. So, for the year, it yielded the fewest birdies at 2.35 per round. Now for eagles, 19 were made for the week, making it the T-11th lowest on the PGA Tour. That meant the field averaged 13.31% under par on the holes, which was the lowest figure on the PGA Tour for 2016.
Winner Dustin Johnson made just 11 birdies (T-29th) and no eagle, as 15.28% of the holes played were under par, ranking him T-30th in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a fair share of birdies and eagles.

So, if you look at all these stats, who has played the best at Oakmont?
32 of the players in the field this year played in 2014. Here are the best results
Winner – Dustin Johnson
T-2nd – Shane Lowry
T-8th – Jason Day
T-13th – Brooks Koepka
T-15th – Bryson DeChambeau
T-18th – Marc Leishman
T-18th – Adam Scott
T-23rd – Byeong Hun An
T-23rd – Jon Rahm
T-32nd – Justin Thomas
T-37th – Jordan Spieth
T-37th – Daniel Berger
T-37th – Harris English
T-49th – James Hahn
T-54th – Emiliano Grillo
T-54th – Matt Fitzpatrick
T-59th – Cameron Smith
67th – Justin Hicks
Following players missed the cut: Justin Hicks, Lucas Glover, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Chris Kirk, Justin Rose, Denny McCarthy, Rory McIlory, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson, Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge, Hideki Matsuyama and Carlos Ortiz.

Only four players in the field this year participated in 2006
T-10th – Justin Rose
These three missed the cut: Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, and Lucas Glover.

Only one player in 1994, Phil Mickelson, was T-47th.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This statistic serves as a reliable indicator of how players perform from tee to green, encompassing a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: Which course is hard to get up and down on holes where players miss the greens? Since all the areas around the greens are mowed short, players are left with really hard shots to get it close, making scrambling important. You are not going to be perfect, so you need to make sure you can make pars from some tough spots.

*Putt inside 10 feet: Very simple, count every putt inside ten feet to see who makes the most.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

85 of the 156 players in this year’s field have stats from 2025. There are 15 Amateurs, foreign players, and LIV players in the field.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips
Most DraftKings points earned
We have compiled a database covering the last 58 events on the PGA Tour, spanning from the start of the 2024 season to the 2025 RBC Canadian Open. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 70 playing in at least eight events:

DraftKings tips
*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $14,400
  Rory McIlroy – $12,400
  Bryson DeChambeau – $11,000
  Xander Schauffele – $10,400
  Jon Rahm – $10,200
  Collin Morikawa – $9,800
  Ludvig Aberg – $9,600
  Patrick Cantlay – $9,300
  Justin Thomas – $9,000

A powerful field on a unique course will yield a very unique winner. Scottie Scheffler is $14,400, a ridiculously high price, but he is worth the cost. But buyer beware, last year Scheffler won the Memorial the week before, came to Pinehurst as the heavy favorite, costing $13,000, but never broke par, finishing T-41st and earning only 35.5 points, the lowest he has made since earning 32 points while missing the cut at the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Scottie learned a lot from last year’s debacle at Pinehurst. This will be better, but there are still several cost-related issues with Scottie this week. Rory McIlroy at $12,400 is a big no for me. Sorry, I worry that he isn’t in a reasonable frame of mind and may still struggle with his driver. Bryson DeChambeau at $11,000 is a reasonable price for an explosive player like Bryson. He has been tinkering a lot with his clubs and ball; I am going to pass on Bryson. I think it’s too much to ask for winning back-to-back U.S. Opens. On paper, Xander Schauffele at $10,400, is the best pick. In eight U.S. Opens, he has achieved seven top tens, with his worst finish being T-14th in 2022. He is at his best on challenging courses, and despite having a slow year due to his injured ribs in January, he is 100% this week and will be in the running. Jon Rahm at $10,200, is a great pick; although he may not have won this year on LIV golf, he consistently finishes in the top ten. In majors this year, he finished T-14th at the Masters and T-8th at the PGA Championship. He is ready to surprise the world. Collin Morikawa at $9,800 is a major disappointment in 2025. He was 2nd at the Sentry and Arnold Palmer but has struggled in the other events. He was T-24th at the Masters and T-50th at the PGA; his game is close but not running on all cylinders. Ludvig Aberg at $9,600, has been a Jekyll and Hyde this year, but his game is coming around, and he does his best work on challenging courses. Patrick Cantlay at $9,300, is always a person to watch. Yes, he missed the cut at the PGA and was T-36th at the Masters, but his game is too good not to play well at Oakmont. Justin Thomas at $9,000, should be a good bet; he was T-32nd at Oakmont in 2016. However, he has struggled at the U.S. Open, playing well only twice, and his last good start was a T-8th finish at Torrey in 2021. So, he’s a no for me.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:
Joaquin Niemann at $8,600 is the hottest player on LIV golf but has struggled in the majors. Until he finished T-8th at the PGA Championship, he is ready to contend at a major finally, and this could be a good week for him. Shane Lowry at $7,800 is a good bet. He has played well and been frustrated a lot, but he was T-2nd at Oakmont in 2016, so we know he can play the course and could be good. Sepp Straka at $7,700 is the steal of the century for a player who won on a challenging course at Truist and was 3rd at the Memorial. Tyrrell Hatton at $7,600 is an excellent price for a player like Hatton. He may not win, but he will make the cut and earn a lot of points at a cheap price.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the U.S. Open
It’s hard to find “bargains” at the U.S. Open, but here are a couple. Corey Conners at $7,300 is one; yes, he will make the cut and earn a lot of points at a low price. Was T-9th last year at Pinehurst. It’s hard to believe that this is Ben Griffin’s first U.S. Open at $7,200. He is a steal, having finished T-8th at the PGA, won at Colonial, and placed 2nd at the Memorial. His driving game will be perfect this week at Oakmont. Sam Burns at $7,100 is another bargain that will make the cut. He earns a lot of points. He was T-9th at Pinehurst last year and has played well since the Masters, including a 2nd last week in Canada. Maverick McNealy at $6,800 is too good to pass up. He has played well on challenging courses in 2025; look for him to shine this week. The same goes for Ryan Fox at $6,800. He has been playing too well in the last month to pass up. Harris English at $6,700, has a lot of U.S. Open experience, including finishing 3rd in 2021 and 4th in 2020. Played at Oakmont in 2016 and was T-37th.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the U.S. Open:

Since 1960, only nine players have made the U.S. Open their first PGA Tour victory: Jack Nicklaus in 1962; Lee Trevino in 1968; Orville Moody in 1969; Jerry Pate, 1976; Ernie Els, 1993; Retief Goosen in 2001; Michael Campbell in 2005, Angel Cabrera in 2007 and Graeme McDowell in 2010. But take a look at that list. Jack Nicklaus and Jerry Pate were U.S. Amateur champions, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els had almost a dozen wins around the world before they won the U.S. Open, and Lee Trevino became one of the greatest players in the world. Michael Campbell, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell won a lot worldwide, especially in Europe.   So, of these first-time winners, you have Orville Moody, who went on to win the Senior Open but could have been a better player. The point is to look for a big name to win the U.S. Open.

Could that open the door for another first-time winner? I can see only one: Tommy Fleetwood, who has played well and been in contention, but I find it hard to think of him winning on the PGA Tour, so a major is a big stretch.

Fifteen years ago, the 41-year streak of not having a European Tour player winner was finally broken by Graeme McDowell. Since then, the floodgates have opened as other Europeans, such as Rory McIlroy in 2011, Justin Rose in 2013, Martin Kaymer in 2014, Jon Rahm in 2021, and Matt Fitzpatrick in 2022, have won. Given the course’s challenging nature, it’s not surprising if another European wins this year, possibly Ludvig Aberg.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

So, what will it take to win at Oakmont?
The most important thing to remember about Oakmont is to have a lot of patience. Each week, these players compete in an environment in which they make a birdie every fourth hole or a total of five to six times a round. In 2007, the birdie average at Oakmont was 1.78 birdies per round, and in 2016, it was 2.35 per round. That means, over 72 holes, the average player makes just over seven birdies for a tournament. So these players need to realize that par is their best friend, and when that occasional birdie pops up, treasure it.
The most crucial aspect will be getting around the course. In 2016, Dustin Johnson choreographed a perfect 72 holes to get around Oakmont. The person who wins this week will have to do the same: think about the placement of each shot and pick your spots to go after a birdie while also making sure to make par. In 2011, Rory McIlroy won thanks to only making three bogies and one double bogey. Someone will be looking to do that this year.

How important is driving? Very important. As you can see on this page and in our course fantasy look, driving it far and straight will go a long way at Oakmont. But for those that have the power to hit it a long way, they better be straight. If you drive it into a fairway bunker, you’re dead, and if you drive it into the rough and over 130 yards from the green, you’re dead, so hitting it far and straight like Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy do is essential.

Hitting to the greens, how tough?
A lot will depend on whether the pin is tucked away on a plateau or is difficult to approach. Again, a player has to be smart; there are numerous dangers around the greens, so you must ensure that a shot is aimed at the right part of the green. The greens will also be tricky (unless rain makes them too soft); lots of shots won’t hold the greens and will roll off into a problematic situation. Sometimes, getting it up and down from rough off the green can be challenging, as is the case with greenside bunkers, which won’t be easy to get up and down from.

What about once you get there? Greens are expansive at 6,500 sq ft, featuring numerous undulations and rolls. They aren’t massive at 8,700 square feet, unlike Chambers Bay, but yes, reading the greens will be tough.

Weather
The weather is always a crucial factor at the U.S. Open.
This indicates that all the rain over the weekend is finished, and through Saturday, things will be dry. It will be in the 80s each day; the only problem comes on the weekend when scattered thunderstorms could affect play on Saturday and Sunday. The good news is that temperatures will be in the mid-70s, so it’s not hot enough for lightning to strike. We all know what happened at Oakmont in 1973 when heavy rain made the course soft, and Johnny Miller shot a final round 63. The USGA won’t be able to control the weather, so they look for low scoring with a dozen players being under par. However, the weather is expected to clear up, and the course will dry out. Remember, it’s on a hill, so it drains quickly. With no trees to block the sun, it gets baked more easily. So, the scoring will be tough over the weekend.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player winning the U.S. Open?
No.
In the past 25 years, it’s been won by grinders like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell, who may not look pretty but know how to place shots in the right spots. There have also been superstars like Tiger Woods, who were expected to win. It’s been won by great tour players like Tom Kite and Corey Pavin, who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major. It’s been won by up-and-coming stars like South African’s Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer, Retief Goosen, and Geoff Ogilvy, who won it in 2006. Additionally, long hitters like Bryson DeChambeau have demonstrated that they can win by driving it long and straight while also excelling in putting and chipping.
Who can forget the stars that many thought were past their prime, such as Payne Stewart and Hale Irwin? It’s also been won by tour grinders like Lee Janzen and Webb Simpson. Last but not least, the stray qualifiers, such as Steve Jones, who surprised the golfing world with his victory in 1996, and Michael Campbell in 2005, who was contemplating not going to U.S. Open qualifying the night before. How about 2009 winner Lucas Glover? Show me a person who has a winning Lucas Glover ticket, and I will show you my winning Irish sweepstake ticket. In the past Opens, we said that it was a wide-open field. But only the best will contend this week. It will be just like the Masters, where only a dozen or so players have a real chance at winning.