Blog3M Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

We finally ended the major season in a significant way. Scottie Scheffler won the British Open in very impressive fashion.  As I wrote in my preview, I felt the British was the toughest of the majors for him to win, and he needed cooperation from Mother Nature in the form of terrible weather with a combination of wind and rain.  That never happened, and Scheffler had a course he could do well on (Is there a course he can’t play well?).
As for Rory McIlroy, he played well but not well enough, as everyone else saw Scheffler again pull out and play a Sunday game that we haven’t seen much of.  While most players tend to play cautiously when they have the lead, Scheffler looks stress-free, and instead of just playing for pars, Scheffler is aggressive in going after birdies and increasing the lead.
In the history of golf, we have not seen much of this, mostly from Nicklaus, Woods, and Ben Hogan.  So Scottie is just the U.S. Open away from the grand slam, and I can bet he will win it at either Shinnecock or Pebble.

Sorry, but I have to be short this week. I am still in London with computer problems, so I will make this preview short. The big thing about this week and next is for players to make it into the top 70 to get into the playoffs. Also, remember that it’s the top 100, not 125, that gets PGA Tour cards for 2025.

Course information:
TPC Twin Cities
Blaine, Minnesota.
7,431 yards     Par 35-36=71

2019 was the first year of the 3M Open and the first time TPC Twin Cities was used in a PGA Tour tournament. It had been a popular venue for a Champions Tour event and remained successful when it switched to the PGA Tour in 2019. The one thing about the course is that the time it’s played gets tougher. In the first year of 2019, the course played to a 69.45 scoring average, which is a shot and a half below par. Ranking-wise, it was T-36th hardest on the PGA Tour as seven other courses played easier. What happened in the event was that the first year was a straightforward course that catered to long-hitters. But the course was a bit different the next year. Rough was up, and the PGA Tour tucked away the pins. So, more traditional players who didn’t hit have long done well. The scoring average was up, 69.95, and the course rank also went up as the course ranked 23rd hardest. In 2021, we saw a combination of rough tucking of pins and wind blowing over 10 mph with gusts of up to 20 mph on Thursday as the course played to a 70.44 average, the 24th hardest for the year. In 2022, a combination of thicker rough and winds blew the scoring average to 71.44, making it the 14th hardest course for last year. In 2023 they had perfect weather; the scoring average was 69.71, and the course ranked 38th.  Last year, the scoring average was 70.49, which ranked 16th. Winner Jhonattan Vegas won with a 17 under-par average in his one-shot win over Max Greyserman.  Scoring conditions were tough all week with high winds; on Sunday, they gusted up to 30 mph.

The weather makes things more complicated, but because of the summertime, the course is dry and fast, along with the low humidity offered in Minnesota this time of year, and temperatures in the 90s could make the course easier. Despite the course having five holes with sharp doglegs, meaning players must be careful off the tee, the course is still considered a bomber’s haven. The greens are small at 6,500 square feet but very manageable. On the whole, good putters will love TPC Twin Cities. Again, look for players who hit greens and have deceitful putts at birdies.
Last year, 1,764 birdies were made on the course, ranking it 43rd in total birdies. It had 62 eagles.
Off the tee, the course will rely on a combination of lakes (10 in total will be in play off the tee), bunkers (33 fairway bunkers in total), and rough. Five of the holes have sharp doglegs, which players will have to lay back so that they don’t run out of the fairway, but still, long hitters will have their way with the course since the bluegrass fescue won’t be a problem for players. There is a total of 72 bunkers on the course, with 39 of them guarding the greens.

The big question is whether fans still come out and support the event with non-marquee players. In the 12 years that the seniors played the course, the average winning score was 19 and a half under par, and that was in tournaments that were only 54 holes. In 2010, David Frost won with scores of 64-66-61 in a 25 under-par total. The Arnold Palmer design course played at 7,114 yards, and a par 72 for the seniors, but tournament officials made severe changes in 2018. Not only has 354 yards been added to the course so that it will play at 7,431 yards, but par has been reduced to 71. Still, for the longest hitters in the world, this won’t present any problems. Another thing is that tournament officials are making holes 7, 10, and 16 easier by moving tees up on the holes, so they will play between 280 and 315 yards, making them drivable. Still, the holes are well guarded by water so that they won’t be automatic birdie holes. The three par 5s will play over 590 yards, so they will not be automatic birdie holes.

Despite not having the marquee names, it’s still a PGA Tour event with great players in an area that loves the event and will come out to support it, like those folks at other popular events like the John Deere Classic. One thing for 2025: it will be hot and muggy for the tournament, so it will make it a survival of the fittest.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Twin Cities.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Twin Cities, data from last year’s 3M Open, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2025.
Last year was the sixth year of the 3M Open. It was a popular venue for the Champions Tour event before switching to the PGA Tour in 2019. The switch proved very successful, as the community gave a lot of support to the tournament and made it a mainstay for the Minnesota area. The heart and soul of the event is the TPC Twin Cities course. Most players like it because they can produce a low score on it.
Last year, the scoring average was 70.49, which ranked 16th. Winner Jhonattan Vegas won with a 17 under-par average in his one-shot win over Max Greyserman. Scoring conditions were tough all week with high winds; on Sunday, they gusted up to 30 mph.
In 2023, things got back to normal with good weather, as the scoring average was 69.71, which ranked 38th. Winner Lee Hodges won with a 24 under-par average.
In 2022, the scoring average was 71.44 because of the weather. The course is almost half a shot over par and the 14th easiest. Winner Tony Finau was 17 under par, making 20 birdies in his three-shot victory.
In 2021, the scoring average was 70.44 (a shot easier than last year), half a shot under par, and the 24th hardest course on Tour. Winner Cameron Champ scored 15 under par and had 21 birdies for the week.
The previous year, it played to a 69.95 scoring average, a shot below its par. Ranking-wise, it was the 23rd hardest on the PGA Tour.
Last year, 1,764 birdies and 62 eagles were made. With the course playing easier in 2023, 1,869 birdies and 59 eagles were made, compared to 2022, when 1,510 birdies and 38 eagles were made. It was better than in 2019, when the course had more birdies made on it (1,976) than any other course in 2019. In 2020, the course had 1,769 birdies, placing it 36th out of 41 courses, and in 2021, 1,687 birdies were made, ranking it 42nd out of 51 courses. So, making birdies could be one of the essential parts of playing well at TPC Twin Cities.
The stats show that this is a bomber’s course. The same is true for Eagles; last year, 62 were made, which is good for a course that only has three par 5s.

We have picked four categories that are needed to win. First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-the-Green, which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens.
Last year, the average drive was 292.2 for all the holes, ranking T-25th. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 29th with 62.28% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at last year’s winner, Jhonattan Vegas, he ranked 9th in driving distance and T-12th in accuracy, so he ranked 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green.
Here is a look at the Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green of the 3M Open for the last few years:
In 2023, the average drive was 293.5 for all the holes, ranking 18th. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 41st with 62.78% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at 2023’s winner, Lee Hodges, he ranked 44th in driving distance and T-13th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green.
In 2022, the average drive was 288.8 for all the holes, ranking 16th. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 38th with 63.54% of the drives in the fairway. 2022’s winner, Tony Finau, ranked 17th in driving distance and T-6th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green.
In 2021, the average drive was 300.3 yards for measured drives and ranked 37th, meaning that only 14 other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 28th, with 62.66% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at 2021 winner Cameron Champ, he ranked 8th in driving distance and T-49th in accuracy, so he ranked 27th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In 2020, winner Michael Thompson ranked 46th in driving distance and T-22nd in accuracy, so he ranked 17th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
As for the 2019 winner, Matthew Wolff, he ranked 36th in Driving Distance and T-31st in Accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our second category is Greens in Regulation. This is a type of course where greens are pretty easy to hit in regulation, so TPC Twin Cities was ranked 24th on Tour with 67.93% of the greens hit. This shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner, Vegas, hit 57 of 72 greens last year for 79.17%, ranking T-7th.
Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the TPC Twin Cities and 3M winners in the last few years:
In 2023, TPC Twin Cities was ranked 48th on Tour, with 73.37% of the greens hit. This shows that many players hit the greens last year. The winner, Hodges, hit 58 of 72 greens last year for 80.56%, ranking T-9th.
In 2022, TPC Twin Cities was ranked 27th on Tour with 66.87% of the greens hit. This shows that many players hit the greens last year. The winner last year, Finau, hit 60 of 72 greens for 83.33%, ranking T-3rd.
The course ranked 38th on Tour in 2021, with 70.38% of the greens hit. This shows again that many players hit the greens last year. The winner in 2021, Champ, hit 54 of 72 greens for 75.00%, ranking T-22nd.
In 2020, Michael Thompson hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, ranking T-3rd. In 2019, winner Wolff hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, which ranked T-6th. Runner-up Louis Oosthuizen hit the most greens, 62 of 72.

Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting, an integral part of the game. Last year, the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.761, and the course ranked 22nd. It averaged 29.69 putts per round, ranking it 13th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 34th. As for last year’s winner, Jhonattan Vegas, he took 111 putts, ranked T-10, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked T-1st.
Here is a look at the Strokes Gained Putting of the TPC Twin Cities and 3M winners in the last few years:
In 2023, the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.763, and the course ranked T-29th. It averaged 29.13 putts per round, ranking it 23rd, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 23rd. As for last year’s winner, Lee Hodges, he took 112 putts, ranked T-4th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked 4th.
In 2022, the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.800, and the course ranked 13th. It averaged 29.65 putts per round, ranking it 10th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 17th. As for the 2022 winner, Tony Finau, he took 117 putts, ranked 37th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked 42nd.
In 2021, the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.775, and the course ranked 22nd. It averaged 29.49 putts per round, ranking it 14th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 37th. As for the 2021 winner, Champ, he took 109 putts, ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Putting, and was ranked 1st.
In 2020, Thompson took 115 putts, ranking 1st, and Strokes Gained Putting was 1st. In putts inside ten feet, he ranked 3rd, making 61 of 64 putts.
In 2019, Wolff took 115 putts, ranked T-25th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 39th. In the critical putts made inside 10 feet, Wolff made 65 of 71 and ranked T-27th.

The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 1,764 birdies were made on the course, ranking it 43rd in total birdies. It had 62 eagles, ranking it 45th.The course ranked 23rd in Par Breakers. Last year’s winner, Jhonattan Vegas, made 25 birdies, ranked 1st, and made 1 eagle. So Vegas was 1st in Par Breakers.
Here is a look at the Birdies and Eagles to see who had the lowest Par Breakers of the TPC Twin Cities and 3M winners in the last few years:
In 2023, 1,869 birdies were made on the course, and it ranked 53rd in total birdies. It had a total of 59 eagles, which ranked 53rd. Last year’s winner, Lee Hodges, made 25 birdies, ranked 1st, and made two eagles. So Hodges was 1st in Par Breaker.
In 2022, 1,510 birdies were made on the course, ranking 35th in total birdies. It had a total of 38 eagles, which ranked 33rd. Last year’s winner, Tony Finau, made 20 birdies, ranked T-4th, and didn’t make an eagle. So Finau was T-5th in Par Breaker. In 2021, 1,687 birdies were made on the course, with only nine other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 38 eagles, which ranked 33rd. 2021 winner Cameron Champ made 21 birdies, ranked T-2nd, and didn’t make an eagle. So Champ was T-2nd in Par Breaker. In 2020, Michael Thompson made 22 birdies, ranked T-7th, but didn’t make an eagle. So Thompson was T-12th in Par Breaker. In 2019, TPC Twin Cities had 52 eagles, ranked 43rd and 39th in Par Breakers. Now Wolff made 26 birdies and one eagle as he was 1st in Par Breakers.
Wolff had an epic battle with Bryson DeChambeau, and his eagle on the 72nd hole was the reason he won the tournament by a shot. Thompson played great and cruised to a two-shot victory, the same as Champ in 2021. Last year’s winner, Jhonattan Vegas, shot 70 in the final round and won by one shot over Max Greyserman.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee, and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent of putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 124 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2025.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the 3M Open:

Key stat for the winner:
In 2020, we told you that looking at the seniors that played well at TPC Twin Cities during the 3M Championship, the one stat that jumped out was how those who won and finished in the top-five were high up in hitting greens.  In 2021, winner Matthew Woof hit it long, and he hit 60 of the 72 greens, which ranked T-6th.  The same with 2021 winner Cameron Champ, he was 8th in driving and 22nd in Greens Hit.  The same with 2022 winner Tony Finau, he was T-6th in driving and T-3rd in Greens Hit. In 2023, Lee Hodges was T-9th in greens hit; last year, Jhonattan Vegas was T-7th, hitting 57 of 72 greens.

Here are some more key stats to look at for this week:

With the greens not having many undulations, good putters will do very well. In 2019, runner-up Bryson DeChambeau had only 107 putts, the fewest of anyone in the field. In 2021, Cameron Champ won thanks to his putter; he took just 109 putts and was co-leader. Last year, Lee Hodges won thanks to the putter; he was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting. So, look for those at the top of the Strokes Gained Putting to play well.
Another important thing we saw in previous years and among seniors playing TPC Twin Cities was making lots of birdies and eagles. Look for those players who make a lot of birdies and eagles week in and week out.
As we have stressed, this event won’t have many marquee names on the leaderboard.  For most of them, the players you least expect to be at the top, just like Matthew Wolff did in 2019, Michael Thompson in 2020, and Cameron Champ in 2021.

The weather should be very hot and muggy this week, with temperatures going into the high 80s and a bit of humidity. There is a possibility of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Other than that, it’s a good week on tap.