BlogThe American Express Preview and Picks

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History of the American Express:

For years, the event was one of the top events, and it never had to worry about sponsorship, as Chrysler was part of it since its early years.  But Chrysler dropped sponsorship in 2008, leaving the tournament vulnerable.  It no longer had Bob Hope’s influence, who grew too old to participate in the 90s, and when he died in 2003, the event was in chaos.  With Hope, the event had a firm footing, as players loved being part of it and got the best of the stars playing alongside them.  But just after Hope died, the stars didn’t show up, and players found participating in a five-day, 90-hole event too much.  The difference in this event was that it was played in five days on four different courses, and the pro was paired with four amateurs.  The AT&T Pebble Beach was over four days across three courses, but it paired each golfer with a celebrity for 3 days, with each pairing consisting of two professionals and two amateurs.  So, this was more of a team event between the player and the amateur.  But the Hope had a professional with four different amateurs over four days; players hated this more and more.

This went on for three years after Chrysler left, and after the 2011 event, many thought the tournament was finished. That wasn’t the case; Tim Finchem and the Tour arranged with Bill Clinton to get his foundation involved, then had Humana take over sponsorship.  The format changed from a 90-hole tournament to a 72-hole, which helped coax more players to attend.  Humana stuck around for four years before leaving as the sponsor, but the Tour got CareerBuilder to step in and take over through 2021, so it was thought the event was on a solid foundation.  But CareerBuilder stepped away after 2018, and things got foggy again.  The event went on in 2019 without a sponsor, while another was found, which happened to be American Express.

A sponsor was easier to find because of what the tournament did after the 2015 event was played.  The most popular home venue for the tournament was the Palmer Course, which hosted 14 of the 17 tournaments from 1999 to 2015.  But after 2015, the Palmer private and Nicklaus private didn’t want to participate in the tournament. It was a terrible deal for tournament officials because they realized the importance of the Palmer course after a disastrous change in 2006, when the event was played at the Classic Club for three years.  Along with the PGA Tour, Tournament officials made what could have been a very controversial decision to bring the Stadium Course, the Pete Dye design that hosted the event in 1987, out of retirement, prompting a lot of complaints.

Back then, the course was stunning on television, but the players hated it.  In the age of persimmon drivers and balata balls, the players thought the Dye track was too complicated and “gimmicky”  with its island green, 20-foot-deep bunkers, a green surrounded by a nine-foot moat-style bunker.  Hitting drives was demanding because if the fairway was missed, the ball was likely in a bush or behind a tree.  The course was the most penal course in the Palm Springs area and the country.  On top of that, the players hated how long it took to play.  Playing with amateurs, it took over six hours to get around.

The players demonized the course as being too hard, and it was.  Over 25 years, all the courses that hosted the Desert Classic ranked very quickly and were known for making lots of eagles and birdies.  But that wasn’t the case with PGA West in 1987. The field played two rounds on the course in 1987, and they disliked it.  It played to a 74.157 average for the week,  two shots over par for the field.  It ranked as the 7th hardest course that year, and players loudly voiced their displeasure in the days after Corey Pavin won.  When the Tour dropped the TPC Stadium Course a few weeks later, many players were very happy, and it was thought the course would never host another PGA Tour event.

In 1987, of the 18 holes played at PGA West, 16 were played over par.  The only ones under were the par 5, 8th, and the par 4, 12th. It’s hard to believe that three of the four par 5s were over par, and the 11th hole played to a 5.308 average.  In the 38 years since, only 10 par 5s have played harder, with the 14th at Pebble Beach the hardest.

So the question in 2016 was if players thought that PGA West, which was impossible 29 years previously, would play differently.  Over the three decades, the course was softened.  Bushes and small trees that used to line the fairways had been removed, making the fairways more generous.  The moat bunker at 12 is gone, and with golf equipment better and the course gaining only 190 yards, it still looked spectacular on TV but didn’t kill the pros. When the course returned in 2016, it played to an average of 70.818, making it the 41st hardest of 50 courses.  In 1987, 16 of the 18 holes were played over par.  In 2016, only seven played over par.  More importantly, the players loved playing the course; many thought it was one of the best courses of the year.  So, going into the 2017 event, the course was again the star.  Things didn’t change that year, as the course played to an average of 71.588 and ranked 30th hardest of the year (primarily because of the wet weather all four days).  Despite it being more challenging, there was nothing but praise from players, who loved the Stadium Course.  In 2018, things were more of the same; it played to a 71.18 average and ranked 36th hardest for the year.  In 2019, the course posted a 70.24 scoring average and ranked 40th hardest. In 2020, the course played to a 70.36 average and ranked 36th hardest.  In 2021, it played to a 70.81 average and was the 36th hardest (out of 51 courses), while in 2022, it played to a 70.57 average and was the 37th hardest course.  In 2023, it played to a 69.20 average and ranked 55th hardest.  In 2024, it played to a 69.15 and ranked 47th hardest (out of 50).

Last year, with some tough conditions, the course played to a 71.35 average and was the 19th hardest course (out of 49).  As a matter of fact, last year, the other two courses that hosted the American Express saw the Nicklaus Tournament course rank 3rd-easiest and La Quinta rank 4th-easiest. So, the course went from one of the most difficult golf courses to a very manageable one.  More importantly, players have loved the course, making it a fixture of this event. Reflecting how much the course is loved, this year will feature the best field the event has seen since the world ranking was established in 1986. Five of the top 10, including Scottie Scheffler is playing.  The field of 156 this year will see 63 players who are in the top 100 of the rankings; these are big numbers for a non-major or Signature event.

So, how many of you know who Bob Hope is???

For many, you ask them who Bob Hope was, and they will have a blank look on their face. Unfortunately, many don’t realize his importance in the entertainment and golfing world.  He was probably the most significant comedian between the 1930s and 90s, and he hosted this event from 1965 until his death in 2003 at age 100. Hope’s name was the fixture until it was dropped in 2012.

Yes, Bob Hope would be proud that the event is still popular today.  Of course, this event has competition as it’s played the same week as the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour.  Dubai has an excellent field of marquee players like Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Ryan Fox and Patrick Reed are in the field.  Another disadvantage is due to LIV Golf.  Phil Mickelson, who used to host this event along with past champions Hudson Swafford, Patrick Reed, and Pat Perez, can’t play in the event they won. Still, the field is great and much better than Dubai’s.

So, will the low scoring continue at American Express?

Scoring has always been low in this event.  Since it went from 90 holes to 72 in 2011, the range of scores has been from 20 under par (in 2017) to as low as 28 under by Patrick Reed in 2014.  59 has been shot twice in this event, first by David Duval in the final round at the Palmer Course in 1999.  In 2017, Adam Hadwin shot 59 at La Quinta.  As for the Stadium course, Patrick Cantlay shot 61 in the final round in 2022.  Showing how you have to shoot low: of the 10 players who finished in the top ten in the 2022 American Express, only one round saw a score over par. Of the 40 rounds played by those 10 players, 32 were in the 60s, indicating that scoring will be low. Again, 2023 showed that scoring has dropped; of the 69 players who made the cut, only four shot over par in the final round. In 2024, only five players finished over par and missed the cut.  Of the 67 players who made the cut, Will Gordon finished 9 under par as he shot 78 in the final round.  The winner, Nick Dunlap, who was an amateur, shot 29 under par, the lowest winning score since the event went to 72 holes in 2012.

Last year, the Pete Dye course was tough, with a scoring average of 71.35.  Even with the conditions on the Pete Dye Stadium Course, all 71 players who made the cut shot under par.  For the 54-hole cut, it took a 9-under par figure to make the cut, so the courses played easily.

So you have to go low to win the American Express.

Last week in Hawaii, Chris Gotterup was 16 under at the Sony Open. Unfortunately, Gotterup is not playing, but one person in the field that I would watch is Scotsman Robert MacIntyre.  He shot 63 on Sunday to finish T-4th, but was very disappointed with his attitude.  After shooting 67 in the first round, he struggled in the second round, which included a double Bogey on two. After making a bogey on 17, he broke his putter and on 18 missed a three-footer for par.  Playing with a backup putter, he again struggled playing his first ten holes one over par.  But on the back nine, he shot 31 for a 67 and was seven under on Sunday, meaning he played his last 26 holes in 11 under par.  His game seems to get better as he goes along and he now comes to America with the attitude that he can win each time he plays.  MacIntyre has only played once in the American Express, missing the cut in 2024, but I expect big things from MacIntyre, who plays well on tough courses like the Pete Dye Course.

Course information:

A unique event that will return to three courses this year, with Pete Dye Stadium hosting two of the four rounds.

7,210 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 76.1 rating and slope rating of 150 from the championship tees, making it one of the country’s hardest.

The course was designed by Pete Dye and opened in 1986.  Dye was hired by the Landmark developing company, which was big in the 80s with over a dozen courses worldwide.  Landmark owners Ernie Vossler and Joe Walser gave Dye the task of building the most challenging course in the World.

Along with the 1987 Desert Classic, the Skins Game was held on the course between 1986 and 1991.  PGA Tour qualifying school was held six times, the last in 2008, but the hint that the course was becoming more playable came when the Champions Tour held the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf there in 1995 and ’96.  The seniors took a liking to the course, which was softened for that event.

The average green size is 6,500 square feet, and the course has nearly a hundred bunkers around it.  Water comes into play on nine of the holes, and the Desert Classic course record is 61 by Patrick Cantlay in the final round in 2021.

In 2024, the course played to a 69.15 average and ranked 4th-easiest on tour (out of 50 courses).  Last year it played tougher at 71.35 and ranked 19th on tour.

Now, the course may be one of the most intimidating on the PGA Tour, but thanks to some work, it’s very manageable.  In 2023, 225 rounds were played on it, with 177 under-par rounds, 17 rounds at even par, and only 31 rounds over par.  Last year, 223 rounds were played on it, with 172 rounds under par, 16 rounds at even par, and 35 rounds over par.  Last year, 227 rounds were played with 132 rounds under par.

One reason the course played hard was its construction in the summer of 2025, when all 18 greens were rebuilt and returned to their original, larger size.  Also, all of the bunkers were redone, again bringing the bunkers back to the way they were when the course opened.  With the greens bigger, PGA Tour officials tried some new pin placements, which could make the course play a notch easier.

Other courses used in the Rota:

La Quinta C.C.

La Quinta, Calif.

7,060 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 74.2 rating and a slope rating of 136 from the championship tees

The course is private and not open to the public.

La Quinta was designed by Billy Bell and Lawrence Hughes and opened in 1959.  In 1999, Robert Muir Graves and Damian Pascuzzo came in and rebuilt all the greens, bunkers, and tees.  He has also taken all the water hazards on the course into play. The flagpole at the first tee is the official flagpole from the 1960 Winter Olympics at Squaw Valley. The Novotny family gave it to La Quinta Country Club in memory of Frank Capra, who was a living legend in the 30s and 40s at the La Quinta Inn.

The average green size at La Quinta is 5,500 square feet, and the course has 101 bunkers.  There are five water hazards affecting eight holes.  La Quinta was first used as a tournament course in 1964, and since then, it has been part of 51 of the 64 Desert Classics and has historically been the hardest of the courses used.  It was the host course in 1970, 1977, 1980, and 1983.

Here is the scoring average of the La Quinta course compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:

• 2025 – 68.60 average, 4th easiest of the 49 courses used for the year
• 2024 – 67.902 average, 2nd easiest of the 50 courses used for the year
• 2023 – 69.583 average, 5th easiest of the 58 courses used for the year
• 2022 – 69.917 average, 8th easiest of the 50 courses used for the year
• 2020 – 69.176 average, the easiest of the 41 courses used for the year
• 2019 – 68.718 average, the easiest of the 49 courses used for the year
• 2018 – 68.831 average, the easiest of the 51 courses used for the year
• 2017 – 69.635 average, 2nd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2016 – 69.148 average, 3rd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2015 – 70.083 average, 6th easiest of 52 courses used for the year
• 2014 – 69.768 average, 4th easiest of 48 courses used for the year
• 2013 – 69.487 average, 3rd easiest of 43 courses used for the year
• 2012 – 70.678 average, 41st hardest of 49 courses used for the year
• 2011 – 70.024 average, 43rd hardest of 51 courses used for the year
• 2010 – 69.969 average, 47th hardest of 52 courses used for the year

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

• La Quinta, Calif.
• 7,147 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 75.3 rating and a slope rating of 143 from the championship tees.

The course is open to the public.

The course is a tamer version of its neighbor, the Stadium course.  Look for lots of birdies to be made, as the fairways are generous, and the greens should be easy to hit.  The Nicklaus course held the final PGA Tour qualifying tournament on the course in 1988, ’90. ’93, 2000, ’02, ’04, ’06, ’08, ’12, and ’13, so many of the players in the field will have played it.

Last year, the course was used for the 9th straight year and blended seamlessly into the tournament.  The course had a 68.25 average, making it the 3rd hardest of 49 courses used on the PGA Tour in 2025.

COURSE KEYS

We won’t have course keys since the event was played on three different courses in previous years.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Desert Classic

The key stat for the winner:

The addition of Pete Dye Stadium Course gives the tournament a bit more of a challenge.  You won’t find any 59s shot on this course, in its first year 2016, 65 was the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2017, Dominic Bozzelli shot 64 in the first round, making it the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course, which was one of the 50 rounds shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2018, Kevin Chappell shot 64 in the second round, and Sam Saunders shot 64 in the final round, the low at the Stadium Course.  In 2019, several 64s were shot at PGA West, but still, the possibility of someone shooting 63 or lower is small.  In 2020, we saw a new course record as Sam Burns and Abraham Ancer both shot 63. Now, Patrick Cantlay broke all of the records in 2021 when he shot 61 in the final round.  In 2023, the low round on the Pete Dye course was 62 by Xander Schauffele and Erik Van Rooyen in the final round. Last year, Justin Thomas set the Stadium course record when he shot 61 in the third round, making 11 birdies.  Still, the key here is that low scores aren’t shot on this course like the others.

The most important stat is how many birdies are allowed on the three courses.  In 2021, due to COVID, the rules changed, and only two courses were used.  But in 2022, the three courses returned, and we can see that 658 birdies with 30 eagles were made at La Quanta, 683 birdies and 17 eagles on the Nicklaus course, and 1006 birdies with 16 eagles on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.  In 2023, we saw 862 birdies with 37 eagles made at La Quanta, 875 birdies and 25 eagles on the Nicklaus course, and 1,156 birdies with 29 eagles on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.  In 2024, we saw 713 birdies with 29 eagles made at La Quanta, 803 birdies and 25 eagles on the Nicklaus course, and 1,128 birdies with 24 eagles on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.  Last year we saw 771 birdies with 37 eagles made at La Quanta, 848 birdies and 20 eagles on the Nicklaus course, and 860 birdies with 14 eagles on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.

So a key stat, to look at for this week, is Par Breakers on tour. Of the top-10 on that list playing this week is Davis Riley, Daniel Berger, Jacob Bridgeman, Ryan Gerard, Robert MacIntyre, Sahith Theegala, John Vanderlaan, and Sudarshan Yellamaraju, all good picks this week.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

This week, the pros will play over three courses in four days, which is quite a learning curve with very little time to prepare and learn two new courses.  This makes it even harder for those coming from Hawaii; unless they take red-eyes on Sunday night or miss the cut, they won’t get to start practicing until Tuesday.  Still, it’s better than when this event was played over five days.

Another problem for the pros is that they play with two amateurs in the first three days.  So patience is needed to tolerate those five-plus-hour rounds.  Look for experienced players to do well; those with a long track record at the Desert Classic should be your favorites. Since 1984, the champion has averaged winning in his 6th starts; last year, Sepp Straka won on his fifth trip to the American Express.  In 2024, Nick Dunlap won in his first start.  But things have changed over the years; Jon Rahm made his fifth start in 2023, when he won the Amex for a second time. In 2022, Hudson Swafford won the Amex a second time in his ninth start. In 2021, Si Woo Kim played in his fourth Amex.  In 2019, Adam Long played in his first American Express; in 2018, Jon Rahm won on his second try.  In 2017, Hudson Swafford won on his fourth start; in 2016, Jason Dufner won on his 7th try.  In 2015, Bill Haas won on his 11th try, while the year before, Patrick Reed won in only his second start.  In 2013, Brian Gay won on his 12th American Express start, while 2012 winner Mark Wilson made his fourth start when he won.  Experience is a must in this event.  Yes, Adam Long won in 2019 in his first Amex, Jhonathan Vegas won the first time around in 2011, and Charley Hoffman in 2007 was the first player to make his Hope debut a victory since Donnie Hammond did it in 1986.  Still consider Dunlap, Long, Hoffman, Vegas, and Reed are exceptions to the rule.

As we said before, the winner must make lots of birdies and eagles to win. When it was played over 90 holes, Phil Mickelson made 37 birdies in 2004, while Justin Leonard made 33 in 2005.   D.J. Trahan made 35 in 2008, along with Pat Perez in 2009,  Bill Haas made 34 in 2010, and Jhonathan Vegas made 34 in 2011.  When the event changed to 72 holes in 2012, Mark Wilson made 24 birdies, while Brian Gay made 27 in 2013. In 2014, Patrick Reed went crazy with 30 birdies and two eagles, while in 2015, Bill Haas made one eagle and 22 birdies.  In 2016, Jason Dufner went low on new courses and had 30 birdies.  In 2017, Hudson Swafford had 26 birdies.  In 2018, Jon Rahm had an eagle and 26 birdies; in 2019, Adam Long made 3 eagles and 24 birdies.  In 2020, Andrew Landry made 31 birdies and not eagles, which helps make the point that to win, they will have to birdie at least 3 out of every 10 holes played.  2021 was a bit different since the Stadium Course was played three times, and the winner, Si Woo Kim, only made one eagle and 23 birdies.  In 2022, when the event returned to three courses, winner Hudson Swafford made 29 birdies and an eagle.

In 2023, Jon Rahm won the event, making an eagle and 26 birdies, 2024 winner, Nick Dunlap, made three eagles and 26 birdies.  Last year, Straka made no eagles and 27 birdies.

Look at someone who destroys the par 5s.  The last 28 winners have averaged a bit under 14 under on them, with Phil Mickelson playing them at 14 under in 2002.  Mike Weir played them in 15 under in 2003, and Phil Mickelson played them in 12 under in 2004.    Justin Leonard played them in 10 under in 2005; Chad Campbell played them in 18 under in 2006; Charley Hoffman played them in 15 under in 2007; D.J. Trahan was 13 under on them; and Pat Perez set the record by playing them in 19 under in 2009.  Bill Haas played them in 16 under in 2010, while Jhonathan Vegas was 11 under the last year it was held at 90 holes.  In 2012, Mark Wilson was 15 under, while Brian Gay was 10 under in 2013.  In 2015, Patrick Reed was 14 under on them.  Jason Dufner went low in 2016, playing the par 5s in 12 under.  In 2017, Hudson Swafford broke tradition as he played the par 5s in 8 under, the first time since 1997 that someone was in single figures on the par 5s.  In 2018, Jon Rahm played the par 5s at 13 under par, while in 2019, Adam Long played them at 11 under par.  2020 winner Andrew Landry also played the par 5s in 11 under.  Even though Si Woo Kim had to play the Stadium Course three times, he did great on the par 5s, playing them in 13 under.  In 2022, Hudson Swafford was 12 under on the par 5s, while Jon Rahm was 13 under in 2023.  In 2024, Nick Dunlap was 15 under par on the par 5s; he made three eagles on them.  Last year, Sepp Straka was just 8 under on the par 5s.

The weather will be picture-perfect as in past years. Temperatures will be in the low-70s each day, with sunny skies. With this kind of weather and very little wind, expect low scores.