BlogThe Players Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

How time flies fast. To think that just five years ago, golf was getting over COVID-19. At the time, Bryson DeChambeau was a big deal. Dustin Johnson was considered the best player in the world; the PGA Tour shocked the world by raising the first-place prize at the Players from $2.25 million to $4.5 million. Five years ago, Phil Mickelson was the most popular player active on Tour, and the thought of Scottie Scheffler being the best player in the world was absurd. Just two years ago, it would have been unthinkable to think Jon Rahm wouldn’t be playing in this championship.

But in the five years since, more people feel that Scheffler has a brighter future than Rahm, Johnson, Koepka, DeChambeau, or Mickelson. Again, the first-place check of $4.5 million awaits the winner of this week’s Players Championship. To show you how shocking that figure is, in 1998 the total purse of the Players Championship was $4 million ($500,000 less than the winner will get this week), rising to $5 million in 1999.

What a difference a year has brought

Two years ago at this time, Scottie Scheffler was on the verge of greatness. He had just won the Arnold Palmer and would go on to win the Players Championship. This vaulted him to one of the greatest seasons on the PGA Tour since Tiger Woods. Including his Olympic and Hero World Challenge victories, Scheffler won nine times, including the Masters, and won the FedExCup.  He had nine wins in 21 starts, two runner-up finishes, and 14 top-five finishes. In those 21 starts, he was only out of the top ten just three times, and his worst finish was a T-41st at the U.S. Open. If there was a dark part of Scheffler’s year after winning the Masters, he found himself going into the final round of the three other majors with very little chance of winning. Still, nobody complains when you think he won the Masters, the Players Championship, the Olympics, and the Tour Championship.

On top of that, Scheffler won four of the eight signature events (Palmer, Heritage, Memorial & Travelers) and earned $30 million in his 21 starts. Now, if you pipe in all of the bonus money from the FedEx Cup Playoffs and Comcast Business Top 10, the final figure is $62 million. That is the most any golfer has won in a single year, and he was just $6 million short of the $68 million that Shohei Ohtani, the wealthiest athlete in the world, earned playing for the Dodgers the last two years. Of course, Scheffler’s stats were off the chart, but the most important thing for him was that at Arnold Palmer, he found his putting touch, and it carried him for the year. Many thought that Scheffler’s 2024 season could not be replicated. While making Christmas dinner in 2024, Scheffler severely sliced his hand, which needed surgery and delayed his season.

He struggled with his game in his first two starts before finishing T-3rd at the Genesis Invitational. Then again, Scottie struggled at the Palmer and Players before finishing T-2nd in Houston. This got him going; again, he found his putting stroke, but didn’t get his first win until May at the Byron Nelson. In his last 12 starts of the season, he had six victories, including wins at the PGA Championship and British Open, and even though he finished T-4th at the Tour Championship, he earned just over $27 million. Again, he showed he was the best player in the world, and when he made his 2026 debut at the American Express in January and won it, many thought Scottie would have another banner year.

But that isn’t happening.

Just like Superman collapsing when around Kryptonite, it seemed like Scheffler suffered his version of Kryptonite when he struggled to a first-round 73 at Phoenix and then 72 at Pebble. Despite the poor start, Scheffler’s game switched into overdrive as he shot 64 in the final round at Phoenix to finish T-3rd. The next week at Pebble, Scheffler opened with a 72, and it took a final round 63 for him to finish T-4th.  Again, his game was terrible at the Genesis, as he opened with a 74, but he was good, shooting rounds of 68-66-65 to finish T-12th.  So with a week off and the Tour moving to Florida, the thought was that Scottie would find some magic going into two events that he won, the Arnold Palmer and Players. But at Bay Hill, the complete opposite happened. Scheffler shot 70-71-72-73 and finished T-24th, the worst finish in his last 25 starts, dating back to his T-25th in Phoenix last year. When I was putting together that Key Fantasy stats chart for the players, I thought I had made an error when I saw that Scheffler ranked 24th, one of the worst stats that Scheffler has had.

Looking at the stats before the Players Championship in 2024, Scheffler ranked 7th, with 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 9th in Proximity to Hole, 24th in Scrambling, and 107th in Strokes Gained Putting.

Looking at the stats before last year’s Players, Scheffler ranked 4th, as he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 19th in Proximity to Hole, 5th in Scrambling, and 93rd in Strokes Gained Putting.

Looking at Scheffler’s stats for 2026, it shows how out of sync he is.

• In Driving Accuracy, he ranks 69th.
• In the Strokes Gained Approach to the Green, he ranks 88th.
• In Proximity to the hole, he ranks 120th
• In Scrambling, he ranks 54th
• Despite being 29th in Strokes Gained Putting, he is 146th in making putts inside ten feet.
• The good news is he leads Birdie Average and Par Breakers, which means he makes enough low scores to help him play well on days.

But this raises an important question: Do we continue betting on Scottie? No matter how poor the odds are, or how incredibly high his cost is in Fantasy Golf, he would always perform and bring in winners. But of late, he has dragged down your Fantasy Golf team, and with short winning margins, he is becoming a drag to pick.

The big question, with the first big event of the year and the Masters just four weeks away, can Scheffler break out of this funk? In 2024, Scheffler and his wife, Meredith, had their first child. Despite the May 8th birth, he won the Masters and Heritage the month before and the Memorial the month after.

In the coming months, Scottie and wife, Meredith, will be having their second child. Could this be the problem with Scottie’s game?

So the big question is: is this a good week to bet on Scottie? For the first time in a long time, I am taking a pass on Scottie this week and seeing if his game bounces back.

Looks like Rory’s back is a bigger problem than first thought.

To the surprise of many, the shocking news came Saturday morning that Rory McIlroy was withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer. For me personally, it was a big loss, as half of my bets were on Rory. The two dirtiest words in golf betting are missed cut and withdrawal. So when word came down that Rory suddenly withdrew on Saturday from the Arnold Palmer, it came as a shock for those who bet on him. According to Rory, he withdrew out of excessive caution. At the time, Rory was doing his morning exercises and felt a slight pain. He tried to loosen it up, but felt that, with the Players a week away and the Masters a month away, it would be best to rest it rather than play with the problem.

The plan was to rest on Sunday and go up to the Players on Monday. But on Monday night, Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis broke the news that McIlroy, in a text, said the back injury might be a bigger problem than he previously thought. McIlroy revealed that, since the back was still a problem, he would continue treatment at his Jupiter home and hoped to travel to the Players on Wednesday.

So the writing is on the wall: no matter what, betting on Rory is not very smart. Of course, there is an old sporting proverb, “Beware of the injured golfer,” but backs are always tricky, and it’s been rare in golf to see a player winning the week after experiencing back pain.

Golf is a much different game now. 

Gambling has become significant, and this week, for picking your pro players, choosing the right player is so important with such a high first-place prize. As for gamblers, The Players Championship is one of the most harrowing events to pick winners from. Over time, the course has evolved into a masterpiece, a different course each year. In looking at the Players Championship, it’s hard to find anyone you can say is the right horse this week for the TPC Sawgrass. In the 43 times that the Players have played at TPC Sawgrass, only six have won it twice: Rory last year, Davis Love III, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Steve Elkington, Tiger Woods, and Scottie Scheffler. Of all the tournaments played for over 20 years on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship was the only non-fall, full-field event the defending champion had yet to win until Scheffler won back-to-back in 2024. Looking at the Players Championship field, it’s hard to pinpoint a horseplayer for this course. Taking both Scheffler and Rory out of the equation makes for a wide-open field.

To show how hard this event has been on every player, looking at the 123 in the field this week (with 14 playing for the first time), the most top tens is just five by Rory McIlroy. After that, four others have four top tens: Adam Scott, who has played in 23 Players; Jason Day, in 13 Players; Brian Harman, in 13 Players; and Hideki Matsuyama, who has played in 10 Players, and frankly, he could be the favorite this week. Of those in the field, only three, which will surprise you, have three top-ten finishes: Lucas Glover, Si Woo Kim, and Justin Rose. Of the 123 players, 70 have never finished in the top ten, with Chris Kirk leading with 14 starts without a top ten. This shows that there are only a few favorites based on past performance.

Give an example of how you can’t count anyone as a favorite. Rory McIlroy won in 2019, and when he was the defending champion in 2021, he missed the cut. The same applies to Jason Day, who won the Players in 2016. He missed the cut the prior year, and in five previous visits to The Players before the win, he missed the cut three times. Last year’s back-to-back winner, Scottie Scheffler, played twice before his victory; he was T-55th in 2022 and missed the cut in 2021. Last year, while going for his third straight win, he finished T-20th. The 2021 champion, Justin Thomas, had played in five previous Players and had only one top-ten finish, so you couldn’t say he was a “horse for the course.”

Look at some of the best young players. 33rd-ranked Patrick Cantlay has played in eight Players and had his best finish, T-19th in 2023, but he missed the cut in his previous three starts. 10th-ranked Xander Schauffele finished T-2nd in his first start in 2018 but missed three cuts in a row before finishing T-19th in 2023, runner-up in 2024, and 72nd last year. Talking about top-ranked players globally, you can’t find a player with more honors than Justin Rose, who has won around the world, but in 20 starts at the Players, he has only three top-tens, the best being T-4th in 2014. He missed the cut in three of his last four starts.

The list of 36 champions is awe-inspiring, as many of the best golfers of the last 43 years have won the Players. Still, the TPC Sawgrass has an amazing aura, and we can say no one or set of golfers has ever dominated it. The term “Horses for Courses” is a gambling term in golf, referring to golfers who perform best on specific courses. Just look at Tiger Woods. He won nine times at Torrey Pines, eight times at Bay Hill and Firestone Country Club, and five times at Augusta National, Cog Hill, and Muirfield Village. Yes, he won The Players twice, but in 19 starts, he has only five top tens and the two victories to show that even the best in the world has problems playing the course. He hasn’t played the Players since 2019, and I wonder if Woods is finished with this event.

Looking at the world’s best players, Jack Nicklaus played at TPC Sawgrass ten times and never finished higher than T-17th. Tiger Woods won twice and was runner-up in 2000. But in his other 16 starts, he only had two top-ten and just six top-20 finishes, which showed that Tiger might have won twice but had a lot of tough times at Sawgrass. The point is to show that the Players Championship is the hardest event to pick a winner. There is no Horse for this course, and even though some of the top names in golf, like Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Nick Price, Davis Love III, and Fred Couples have won, we have also seen players like Craig Perks, Si Woo Kim, Tim Clark, Fred Funk, and Stephen Ames win in the last 20 years.

Who is hot right now

Not many players can claim to be “hot” right now. Of course, we can say that Akshay Bhatia is hot based on his Palmer victory, but after that, who do we have? Watch past champion Si Woo Kim, but have to like Collin Morikawa, who in his last three starts won at Pebble, was T-7th at the Genesis, and 5th last week at Bay Hill. Jacob Bridgeman and Chris Gotterup finished T-18th at Bay Hill this year as month players. Have to watch Ricky Castillo, who won in Puerto Rico and was 5th the week before at Cognizant. Cameron Young is also playing well; he was T-7th at Genesis and T-3rd at Bay Hill. Players Champion Adam Scott was 4th at Genesis and T-11th at Bay Hill. Last week, as this week, it’s Sepp Straka, who was T-2nd at Pebble, T-50th at Genesis, and T-13th at Bay Hill. Yes, not great numbers, but I still like him a lot.

One thing to watch for at the Players is one unsuspecting Player who always shines. Last year, it was J.J. Spaun, who lost a playoff to Rory. In 2023, Cam Davis shot 74 on Sunday to finish T-6th. In 2022, Anirban Lahiri hung tight and lost to Cameron Smith by a shot. Who could ever forget the saga of Len Mattiace, who, in 1998, was a shot back of Justin Leonard going into the 17th hole? He was an unknown pro whose mother, Joyce, was in a wheelchair in the final stages of cancer. But on the 17th tee, Mattiace hit it over the green and into the water; he got his third shot in a greenside bunker but skulled that shot into the water. Mattiace made a quintuple-bogey eight on the hole and finished T-5th.

These are all stories that are a part of the Player’s folklore.

The season is a quarter over. 

It may be early March, but we are playing the 10th of 37 events on Tour for the year. So it’s hard to believe the golf year is this far along. Over the next 25 weeks, along with this week’s Players, we have four majors to play, five more signature events, and three FedEx Cup playoffs, so I guess it’s easy to say this is the start of the massive events on the PGA Tour. But in a way, that isn’t true. In past years, the Players was the first time you could count all the best players in one spot. However, with three designated events already played, the Players is just another designated event, and we have seen the best play in three other events over the last nine weeks.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week, we have the crowning jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 52nd edition, played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Besides the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf. Looking at the field over the last couple of years, only one other tournament in golf has attracted more top-100 players: the PGA Championship. Thanks to LIV Golf, those days are over, as the four majors will be the only events where the best are together. We continue to see the importance of changing dates from May to March; this will be the seventh time in a row that the Players will be in March. But the course has had a lot of rain over the last couple of weeks, so tournament officials will need help getting it to a firm, fast condition. One thing that is up is the rough; it will be the hardest in the event’s history. Things could be very interesting if the weather gets windy, which is in the forecast for the weekend. Since the course is just a mile from the ocean, it could be very tough this year. So look for high scores over the weekend, as the weather and wind will make it challenging.

It may take a lot of experience to win the Players. Since the event moved to the Stadium course, 20 different players in their 20s have won, including 2024 champion Scottie Scheffler, 2022 champion Cameron Smith, 2021 winner Justin Thomas, 2019 champion Rory McIlroy, 2017 champion Si Woo Kim, 2016 champion Jason Day, and 2015 winner Rickie Fowler. The list is impressive: Jerry Pate in 1982, Hal Sutton in 1983, Fred Couples in 1984, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Jodie Mudd in 1990, Steve Elkington in 1991, Davis Love III in 1992, Justin Leonard in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2001, Adam Scott in 2004, Sergio Garcia in 2008, Martin Kaymer in 2014, Fowler in 2015, Day in 2016, Kim in 2017 and Rory in 2019. I also bring up guys like Craig Perks, Fred Funk, Henrik Stenson, and Tim Clark, who have won, so that anything can happen this week.

Course information:

• The Players Stadium Course
• Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.
• 7,352 yards     Par 36-36–72

TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration Bermudagrass, while the rough is 419 Bermudagrass. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda with some poa, which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course played to a 72.45 average last year and ranked 13th toughest on the Tour.

Here is a look at how hard TPC Sawgrass has played over the years.

Rank compared to

Year  Scoring avg    other courses

2024       72.393         13th

2024       71.471          15th

2023       72.449         13th

2022       72.619         12th

2021       72.421         16th

2019       71.513         23rd

2018       71.409        29th

2017       73.289          5th

2016       72.055        19th

2015       72.083        18th

2014       72.155        25th

2013       72.323        19th

2012       72.466        19th

2011       72.000        23rd

2010       71.804        28th

The course opened in 1981 and hosted The Players Championship in 1982. That year, it was very “raw,” with many players complaining that the greens and landing areas had too much slope. Winds in the early days didn’t help ease the pain of the mounds, but over the years, improvements have made the course more “player-friendly.”

Over the years, the TPC Sawgrass has gone from a course the players only cared a little about to one of the most beloved and robust courses on Tour. With the advent of the Players moving to May, the course underwent an extensive renovation in 2007, during which all the grass on the tees, fairways, and greens was removed, with a new drainage and irrigation system installed beneath. The greens were built with a sub-air system like the one at Augusta National, which can control firmness in any weather conditions.

At the same time, 122 yards were added to the course, and the rough was Bermuda instead of rye.

All of this, plus the new clubhouse, gave the Players a new dimension, making it one of the best tournaments in the world. It may even be considered a major one day.

A couple of things to know: The average green size is 8,500, which is medium to small, and makes the targets harder. Small greens emphasize shotmaking more, but you must be able to get it up and down. Water comes into play on 11 holes for the pros. There are 92 bunkers around the course, along with many waste areas in the fairways.

Two other things: In 2018 and 2017, the course played to a yardage of 7,189, which is 26 yards shorter than in 2016, before the 12th hole was changed.

Three years ago, the course was extended to 7,200 yards, and 19 yards were added to the 9th hole, making it a 602-yard par 5.

Over the last year, the course has undergone significant changes, adding 77 yards.

A look at the winners of the Players at TPC Sawgrass:

36 players have won the Players Championship since the event moved to its permanent home at TPC Sawgrass. Of those 36 champions, they have.

• Played in 17,543 PGA Tour events in their careers
• Won a total of $1,556,375,254. Yes, over a billion dollars have been won by the 36 winners
• With a total of $94.5 million being won at the Players
• The 36 have won a total of 503 times on the PGA Tour
• While 22 of the 36 won a total of 57 major championships
• Seven of the 36 are members of the World Golf Hall of Fame
• Eleven of the 36 winners spent a total of 1,477 weeks as world number one.
• (Woods 683 weeks, Greg Norman 311, Rory McIlroy 122, Scottie Scheffler 180, Jason Day 51, Nick Price 44, Fred Couples 16, David Duval 15, Adam Scott 11, Martin Kaymer 8, and Justin Thomas 5 weeks)
• Of the players’ winners, only two won their first event at the Players: Craig Perks and Tim Clark. For Perks, it was his only win on the PGA Tour, while Clark won again four years later.
• Of the 36 winners, these nine did it on their second start: Adam Scott, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, Stephen Ames, Steve Elkington, and Si Woo Kim.
• Only four made the Players their last PGA Tour victory: Jerry Pate, Craig Perks, K.J. Choi, and Justin Thomas.

Here is a link to key fantasy stats at TPC Sawgrass.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at The Players Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

Craig Perks blew the greatest stat the tournament had going for it with his 2002 win. Before his victory, nobody had ever won the Players without a win on the PGA Tour. On top of that, since 1982, when the Players switched to the Stadium course, there have been 36 different winners, with 22 winning 54 major championships. Still, the cream always rises to the top if the course is dry and firm without rain hampering it. But that will be different, so look for someone who may have struggled in the past to shine this week, someone like Keegan Bradley, Michael Kim, or Tom Hoge.

Just look at the list of champions at TPC Sawgrass: Scheffler, Thomas, Sutton, Couples, Kite, Love, Norman, Leonard, Garcia, Duval, Mickelson, Day, McIlroy, and Woods. It’s not a bad list. But the one thing they have in common is firm and fast conditions, so if that won’t happen, what do we expect?

The Tour has featured marquee winners such as Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and Russell Henley. Still, at the same time, we have had some really off-the-wall players like Brian Campbell, Joe Highsmith, and Karl Vilipps.

Craig Perks has some company as Tim Clark became the second player to win for the first time at the Players Championship. Talking about weird winners, 2017 champion Si Woo Kim also goes down in the annals of the Players as a long-shot winner. He became the youngest winner at 21 years, 10 months, and 16 days, and he had only 61 career PGA Tour starts, the 2nd fewest of anyone to win the Players (Henrik Stenson won on his 44th PGA Tour start). In his winning year, the weather saw four days of winds up to 20 mph. Also, remember one of the worst weather weeks the Players had ever seen in 2005; it was terrible that the tournament finished on Monday with Fred Funk winning. This may open the door for a non-marquee winner if the weather is terrible.

Totally useless stat:

One of the most significant oddities of The Players Championship is that no one had ever repeated as champion until 2024, when Scottie Scheffler did.

Seven players have won this event multiple times (including all years), but none have won consecutively. Nicklaus is the only three-time winner (1974, 1976, 1978). Two-time winners include Rory McIlroy (2025, ’19), Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Fred Couples (1984, 1996), Davis Love III (1992, 2003), and Scheffler. There have been only 7 multiple winners since it moved to TPC Sawgrass.

The most unusual winner of the Players has to be Sandy Lyle, who won in a playoff in 1987. It is remarkable because, in his 13 starts, he made only three cuts: his win in 1987, a T74th in 1994, and a T70th in 1997. Craig Perks only made two cuts in six tries, but after winning the 2002 Players, he finished T17th the following year. Also, I must add the 2016 winner, Jason Day, to this list. He missed the cut three times before he won.