BlogValero Texas Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Many will wonder if this is nothing more than a good time to take a week off. Despite having a great sponsor, this event wasn’t a marquee stop on the PGA Tour until 2024. In 2023, only 24 players in the top 100 of the world rankings played in the Valero Texas Open. That was the last year the Match Play Championship was played the week before Valero. With the demise of the Match Play, more players attended Valero, but we now see that Houston is taking a few more players.

In the past, many people have passed up the Valero Texas Open due to the winds, which blow in the 20 mph range. The last thing in the world players want to do is screw up their swings a week before the Masters. But by the number of players in the field, the worry is not as great. One thing is that the TPC San Antonio course is a tough test and is a perfect venue for players to prepare for the Masters.

The Masters field is pretty much set with 93 players (including Tiger, who may not play). The only exception or way for players to get into the field is winning this week. In 2024, one of the players looking at that was Akshay Bhatia, who won at the Barracuda Championship the previous July. There is no invite since that is a second-tier event, the same week as the British Open. He beat Denny McCarthy, who was already in the Masters, in a playoff.

Of the 132 playing this week, 22 are playing next week in the Masters, so that leaves 110 looking for that last-minute invite (Been updated after Morikawa and Berger withdrawal. One player still searching for that Masters Invite is Rickie Fowler, who has played in 11 Masters and was 2nd in 2018.  Fowler started the year 83 in the World Rankings and got himself to 60 after the Players, but after missing the cut in Houston, it’s down to him winning this week or no Masters.

Another player with a good chance of getting into the top 50 was Pierceson Coody.  He started the year at the Sony Open and was ranked 94th.  Coody played well, finishing T-2nd at the Farmers, and after finishing T-10th at Phoenix, moved up to 44th.  So it looks good for him, but he went to the Florida swing, missing the cut at the Palmer and Players.  He finished T-55th at Valspar and dropped to 51st.  No problem, he still had Houston and The Valor.  But Coody hurt his back and had to withdraw from both Houston and Valero, so no Masters for Coody.

Michael Thorbjornsen is another who will kick himself as he had several chances to pick up points.  His biggest problem came with his finish at Phoenix, where he finished bogey-bogey-par and dropped into a T-3rd.  If he could have gotten into the playoff, which Gotterup won, he would be in the Masters, but instead will tee it up at the Valero, knowing that he has to win for any chance to play in the Masters.

One person who will be at the Masters will be Gary Woodland.  His story has been well documented, between the brain surgery and all his problems with PTSD, it was one of the heartwarming stories for him to win last week in Houston.  Woodland played great a decade ago, ending with a U.S. Open victory in 2019.  Between 2011 and 2024, he played in 12 Masters; his last appearance at Augusta was in 2024.  But with the win in Houston, he will return to Augusta, and it will be a nice reward after years of struggle.

Still, for the 108 players in the field this week, a victory couldn’t come at a better time, as it will earn them the last spot to play in next week’s Masters.

Winning a major the week after winning on the PGA Tour

We talk about this all the time when the majors come around. Is it suitable for a player to participate the week before? That player is usually preparing to play in a major. The last thing most of these players think about is winning; of course, they want to get their games ready and don’t want to spend the energy it takes to win a week too early. 2022 was a perfect example; Rory McIlroy played in the Valero Texas Open, missing the cut, and then finished 2nd at the Masters the following week. In 2023, McIlroy didn’t play in the Valero and missed the cut at the Masters, so it’s a mystery to me what to do. This year, McIlroy decided it was best to rest for three weeks and hasn’t played since the Players Championship.

In the history of the majors since 1950, only six times has a player won on the PGA Tour the week before winning a major. Here is the list:

• Rory McIlroy – Won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2014 PGA Championship
• Tiger Woods – Won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2007 PGA Championship
• Phil Mickelson – won the BellSouth Classic, followed by the 2006 Masters Tournament
• Sandy Lyle – Won the Greater Greensboro Open, followed by the 1988 Masters Tournament
• Lee Trevino – Won the Canadian Open, followed by the 1971 British Open
• Art Wall – Won the Azalea Open, followed by the 1959 Masters Tournament

Who is the hottest player in the game, Rory or Scottie, or could it be Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Young, Jacob Bridgeman, or Chris Gotterup?

Hard to believe that between Rory and Scottie, they have won just once in the last six months. That came in January when Scheffler won the American Express. For Rory, his last win came in September at the Irish Open, and for Scottie, his last win came in September at the Procore.  Making things a bit more interesting, Scottie withdrew from Houston to go home and wait for the arrival of his second child. As of today, we have heard nothing, so we wonder if Scottie will be ready for Augusta. As for Rory, he has played a lot and, in the last six months, has runner-up finishes at the Genesis and the DP World Tour Championship. He was also T-3rd at the Dubai Invitational and at the Abu Dhabi Championship, but we have to wonder how he really was. He shocked a lot of folks a month ago when he withdrew before the third round of the Arnold Palmer and didn’t play well at the Players, finishing T-46th.  So we have to wonder if these two will be ready for the Masters.

Meanwhile, some are going into the Masters playing great golf. The first is Cameron Young, who won at the Players and is playing great, finishing in the top 11 in nine of his last 12 starts, going back to his win at the Wyndham. Young has played in four Masters, finishing T-9th in 2024 and T-7th in 2023. But in his other two starts in 2022 and 2025, he has missed the cut, so many will wonder if Young is a good pick.

Jacob Bridgeman has been on the PGA Tour since 2024. But he has been in the shadows until this year. In 2024, his best finish was T-11th at the Sanderson Farms, and last year, he was knocking on the door, finishing T-2nd at the Cognizant and 3rd at the Valspar. He has two other top-five finishes and made it through to all three FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing T-27th at the Tour Championship. 2025 has been great for him; in 8 starts, he has made the cut in all 8 and hasn’t finished worse than 18th. He started the year with a T-4th finish at the Sony Open and was close at the AT&T Pebble Beach, but had problems down the stretch, finishing T-8th. The next week, he won for the first time and finished T-5th at the Players. As for playing in the majors, Bridgeman played in the PGA Championship and U.S. Open last year, missing the cut in both, so one has to wonder if the Masters will be a learning experience for Jacob. But you never know: in 2024, Ludvig Aberg played in his first major, the Masters, and finished 2nd. The same happened in 2021, Will Zalatoris played in his first Masters and finished 2nd. So it is possible for Jacob.

Now, Jacob isn’t the only rookie that people will be watching; Chris Gotterup will be playing in his first Masters. The difference for Gotterup is that he has played in four majors, and at last summer’s British Open at Portrush, he finished 3rd. Gotterup has also had a great 2026; he started the year by winning the Sony Open and followed up a month later with the Phoenix Open. He hasn’t been as consistent as Bridgeman, but he did finish T-6th at Houston last week.

But the player who will get the most attention going into the Masters is Bryson DeChambeau. He has won his last two starts on LIV Golf, and last year he finished T-5th at the Masters, T-2nd at the PGA Championship, missed the cut at the U.S. Open, and was T-10th at the British Open. Bryson has been impressive in the majors, winning two U.S. Opens and being runner-up twice in the PGA Championship. One thing to worry about is the Masters; he has played in nine Masters, but he struggled in his first seven tries. He was T-6th in 2024 and T-5th last year and could have easily won. As a matter of fact, if you look at his game, it should suit him well at Augusta if he can find the patience, which is a problem for him. But I could easily see Bryson, along with Jon Rahm, as the top choices for the Masters, and both of them could be the betting favorites next week.

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open is a historic tournament; it’s the 6th-oldest professional tournament in golf worldwide, the 3rd-oldest on the PGA Tour, and the longest held in the same city. This is the 104th anniversary of the first one played in 1922 at Brackenridge Park. Robert MacDonald won that one, and in 1923, Walter Hagen won. The list of winners is good. Hagen, Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, and Sam Snead won. Arnold Palmer won three in a row between 1960 and 1962. Dating back to 1922, the tournament has been through 16 names to date, but it can always trace its lineage back to San Antonio, Texas. As for host courses of the Valero Texas Open, the Brackenridge Park Golf Course has predominantly hosted the event, as have the Willow Springs Golf Course, Fort Sam Houston Golf Course, and Oak Hills Country Club between 1995 and 2009, and The Resort at La Cantera. 14 years ago, they moved to the new TPC San Antonio, part of a two-course project.

Always known as a place where pros can score low on, the Valero Texas Open has been the site of numerous scoring feats. In the 1951 Texas Open held at Brackenridge Park, Al Brosch became the first PGA Tour player to post a score of 60. In 1955, just four years later, Mike Souchak, again playing at Brackenridge Park, posted a 72-hole score of 257, which would stand as the PGA Tour record until 2001. In the 2003 Valero Texas Open, Tommy Armour fired a 254 at LaCantera to set the record for the lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history. His score to par of 26-under was also a Tour record for Par 70 courses. His score eclipsed Donnie Hammond’s 22-under par, which he shot at the 1989 Valero Texas Open. But at TPC San Antonio, only a few records are broken, as the course is very tough.

Course information:

• TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
• San Antonio, TX.
• 7,438 yards     Par 36-36–72

AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating of 148 from the back tees. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains: Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens, and Bandera on the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those who stay on the path and its members.

The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. It has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.

There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera; the move was financial, since the event no longer has to pay a site fee, which had been reported at $300,000. The course being used is AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,438 yards with a par of 72. Greg Norman designed it with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted. The course opened in 2009 and is one of the 10 TPC courses used on the PGA Tour this season.

Here is a link to our Valero Texas Key Fantasy Stats.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valero Texas Open:

Key stat for the winner:

For the regulars of past Valero Texas Opens, 16 years ago was the start of a new era here. For players like Zach Johnson, who won twice, and Justin Leonard, who won three times at LaCantera, it was an unpleasant experience moving away from LaCantera, as Leonard has yet to finish better than T30th in eight tries. At the same time, Johnson missed the cut in 2010, 2017, and 2021. Looking at performance stats from 2010 through 2025, hitting greens is key for many in the top ten, along with good putting and hitting fairways. So a combination of that tells us that a player needs to hit lots of greens and putt well. In looking at the 15 winners at TPC San Antonio, all of them ranked in the top-20 in both greens hit and # of putts (all except for Brendan Steele in 2011, who ranked T40th in greens hit in 2017 Kevin Chappell ranked T-36th in putts in 2019 Corey Conners ranked T-30th in putts, in 2021 Jordan Spieth was T-57th in greens hit and in 2023 Corey Conners was 1st in Greens hit but T-53rd in # of putts). In 2025, Akshay Bhatia ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation and T-16th in # of putts. Last year’s winner, Brian Harman, ranked T-11th in Greens in Regulation and T-4th in # of putts.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

Unimportant stat: With the course new in 2010, it made sense given the wins by inexperienced winners. It’s been a mixed bag, with inexperienced players like 2022 winner J.J. Spaun, 2011 winner Brendan Steele, 2013 winner Martin Laird, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2017 winner Kevin Chappell, 2016 winner Charley Hoffman, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker, and 2014 winner Steven Bowditch. But we also have players with winning records like Jordan Spieth winning in 2021, Corey Conners winning in 2019 & 2023, Adam Scott winning in 2010, and Ben Curtis in 2012, and British Open winner Brian Harman is the defending champion, so the players should know the course by now, but look for a non-marquee guy to win.

TPC San Antonio is renowned for its challenging layout. Since its debut in 2010, it has consistently ranked among the top 20 most demanding courses on the PGA Tour. Even in 2019, when it dropped to 28th due to perfect weather conditions, it remained a formidable course. The course’s challenging nature adds to the intensity and excitement of the Valero Texas Open.

Look for the course to play tough, with thick rough and tight fairways that will play havoc on the players. Hitting it long doesn’t cut it at TPC San Antonio. Of those who have finished in the top 3, only ten have been in the top ten in driving distance. So this is a course where power won’t dictate a win.

17 of the previous 18 Texas Opens have been decided in the playoffs. But as a bit of an oddity, it took 14 tries before TPC San Antonio saw its first playoff, with Akshay Bhatia beating Denny McCarthy.