BlogMasters Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

First, the Good…

We could see the widest Masters of all time in which the usual suspects, Rory and Scottie, aren’t the real favorites. Going into the Masters, the four most recent winners are Akshay Bhatia (Arnold Palmer), Cameron Young (Players), Matt Fitzpatrick (Valspar), Gary Woodland (Houston), and J.J. Spaun (Valero). Of the five, they have played in a total of 31 Masters. In those 31 starts, only two have top-tens (Matt Fitzpatrick – 2, and Cameron Young – 2), and of the two, their best finishes were T-7th for Young in 2023 and T-7th for Fitzpatrick back in 2016.

More realistically, two players from LIV golf, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau, have won in the last five weeks. For Rahm, he has won the Masters; for DeChambeau, he has two top tens at Augusta. He played in the final group with Rory McIlroy and finished T-5th. In my mind, my favorite is the player with a great Masters record and who has played well in 2026 is Xander Schauffele. He has five top-tens in eight starts and was 8th last year and in 2024. Need we forget that Schauffele was runner-up in 2019 and T-3rd in 2021? As for 2026, he didn’t play well on the West Coast, but his game has gotten sharper of late, as he was 3rd at the Players Championship and T-4th at the Valspar Championship.

Another player to watch is Ludvig Aberg, who finished 2nd in 2024 and 7th last year in two Masters. After a slow west coast swing, Aberg has found his game, finishing T-3rd at the Palmer, T-5th at the Players, and T-5th at the Valero Texas. His game has been sharp, but he played poorly in the final rounds of the Players and Valero. Still, he is one of the favorites.

Another player to watch is Justin Rose, who has been runner-up three times, including last year when he lost a playoff to Rory. Yes, Rose has mixed results for 2026, but he did win the Farmers and was T-13th in his last start at the Players.

Many will laugh at me, but I am watching Patrick Reed this week. He won the Masters in 2018 and has since had five top-12 finishes, including a 3rd last year. Reed decided to leave LIV Golf in January, despite having played in six DP World Tour events and won the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters. In between the two, he lost a playoff at the Bahrain Championship, so his game has been sharp.

Two Englishmen to watch are Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick. Both have had limited success in the Masters, but Fitzpatrick was 2nd at the Players and won the Valspar. Fleetwood was T-4th at Pebble, T-7th at Genesis, T-8th at the Players, and T-10th at the Valero.

Many will think of Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka, but all of them have a hangup: Koepka can’t seem to putt; Matsuyama has been terrible since losing the playoff at Phoenix. Hovland is still changing coaches, and for Henley, his game has been Jekyll and Hyde in 2026. Put that together with a lackluster performance at Augusta (he was T-4th in 2023, but that has been his only top-ten).

Now, the one record that has been in place at the Masters is the rookie jinx. In the 89 times the Masters has been played, the only rookie winners were Horton Smith in 1934, Gene Sarazen in 1935, and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, who won in a playoff. Last Thanksgiving, we lost Fuzzy to a heart attack, so it would only be fitting to see the first rookie winner in 46 years. This year, we have a fine crop of rookies, a total of 22, but of those, we like four of them: Tom McKibbin, Ben Griffin, Jacob Bridgeman, and Chris Gotterup.  All of them have won a tournament around the world. For McKibbin, he has a lot of promise and is still young, but don’t forget about him. Next up, and one I was surprised to see, is Ben Griffin as a rookie. He won three times in 2025 and had a three-month run between April and June in which he was only out of the top-14 twice in nine starts. Like that, Griffin hits it straight and may not be terribly long off the tee, but he can still keep up with the big boys. He hits lots of greens and ranks 36th in Greens in Regulation. He is also good when he misses greens; he ranks 11th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green and 62nd in Strokes Gained putting. So he could surprise a few. But the two I really love are Bridgeman and Gotterup, who showed in 2026 they can win and could do so this week.

The Bad…

Of the 91 players in the field, I see only two dozen with a chance of winning. Every year, we see the same thing: players like Adam Scott, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, J.J. Spaun, Corey Conners, Harris English, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, and Keegan Bradley who contend on the PGA Tour but seem to struggle this week. Sure, many will question putting 2013 champion Adam Scott in this group, but the last time Scott finished in the top ten was in 2017, and last year Scott missed the cut.

Two players who will struggle this week are Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa. As for Thomas, he has struggled in his 10 Masters starts, finishing in the top 10 just twice, with his best finish being 4th in 2020. During the fall, Thomas had back surgery, and since returning to the Palmer, he has struggled with his game. He did start well at the Players, but shot 72-72 over the weekend to finish T-8th.

But the biggest disappointment has to be Morikawa. In six Masters starts, he has been out of the top-14 just twice, both times in his first two starts in 2020 and ’21. Since finishing T-14th at the Masters last year, Morikawa has struggled with his game and putter; in his last 15 starts, he has had only one top-ten (T-8th at Rocket Mortgage). But when he won at Pebble, was T-7th at the Genesis, and 5th at the Palmer, many thought this would be a great year for him, and he was one of the favorites at the Masters. But on his second hole in the first round of the Players, Morikawa took a swing and walked in, saying the back just wasn’t right. Morikawa has had MRIs done on his back, saying that it’s “nothing worse than what it’s been” and that he expects to be able to get through it. The same last week, but Morikawa withdrew before the tournament began. “It’s been a little bit of a mental battle just trying to trust where it’s at,” Morikawa said. “The back actually feels fine. It’s just other parts of the body not cooperating a little bit how I want.”  He was at Augusta on Monday and hit balls, telling writers he remains optimistic but doesn’t know if that mental struggle could cause him to withdraw. Sure, Morikawa’s short game and putting are good right now, but he is more afraid of doing something terribly wrong, which could create a long pause. We all see what can happen with a bad back; ask Will Zalatoris, who won for the first time at the 2022 FedEx St. Jude but took an awkward swing the next week, forcing him to withdraw. In the three and a half years and two back surgeries, things still aren’t right for him, so don’t expect much from Morikawa this week.

And the Ugly…

Two players we haven’t talked about are Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Both are the number one and number two players in the world, but there are big question marks for both.

As for Scheffler, after he won the American Express in January, many thought the sky was his only limitation. At American Express, we learned for the first time that his wife, Meredith, was pregnant. No announcements on a due date, but many speculated that it was right around the Masters. Still, Scheffler’s game looked great at the Amex. In his next start, Scottie shot 73 in the first round and, after the terrible start, played his next three rounds in 17 under to finish T-3rd. The same thing happened at the AT&T Pebble Beach. Scheffler opened with a 72 and then played the last 54 holes in 20 under, thanks to a final round 63. The next week at the Genesis, Scheffler started with a 74 and scrambled to make the cut. He was 14 under on his final 54 holes and finished T-12th. The struggle continued as he shot rounds of 70-71-72-73 to finish T-24th at the Arnold Palmer. Then at the Players, Scheffler struggled with rounds of 72-73-67-71 to finish T-22nd.  Scottie was planning to play in Houston, but withdrew to help his wife. After that, we didn’t hear anything about Scottie until this Sunday, when AP writer Doug Ferguson wrote that Meredith gave birth to a boy on March 27. They named him Remy. When Scottie had his first son, Bennett, just before the 2024 PGA Championship, things seemed normal: he won the Masters and RBC Heritage weeks before the birth, and the Memorial and Travelers the month after. But it seemed back then that Scheffler was still able to practice and put everything in perspective before and after Bennett was born.

On Tuesday, Scheffler held his first press conference since playing in the Players Championship. He was very cagey about discussing his preparation for the Masters and whether the newborn was affecting his game. In the last year, Scheffler has talked about the golfer Scottie, Scottie’s family, and the striking tso find the time for both. Still, how do you question a person with such strict family values, and whether that makes playing at a high level possible. We have seen this many times; a perfect example is Jordan Spieth, who had four great years before he had a family, and today Spieth isn’t the same player he was in 2015. Even Tiger Woods showed a total commitment to playing great golf, making it his top priority. But when the kids came, along with back problems and a divorce, his game wasn’t the same after 2010.

So it will be interesting to see what happens to Scottie in the coming months. He is not sharing the day-to-day work he is putting into getting ready. We will not get anything from him, and we have to watch how he does. So that makes Scheffler a dangerous person to back, especially at the big odds that make him the favorite each week. We know he will give it 110%, but will that make him as good as the 110% he gave last year or the year before? I’m not saying that Scheffler will not play well; that is impossible. Scottie still has a lot of wins on the PGA Tour and in majors, but for this week, can he get back to where he was when he won the PGA Championship and British Open last year? It’s best not to bet too heavily on Scottie. I don’t see Scottie winning this week or next. Think of it as a timing issue, think that mentally Scottie can’t give as much of himself right now. I may be mistaken; we will see in a few days.

How about Rory?

Same thing about Rory, he is a totally different player than he was the week before winning the Masters. Yes, I feel that Rory is giving 110%, but I think he has accomplished most of his dreams, which may take him to a different level. Sure, Rory can tell us he has different goals and dreams, saying everything is normal. In the year since winning the Masters, Rory has only won once, in September at the Irish Open. Yes, he was T-3rd at Abu Dhabi and 2nd at the end of 2025 at the DP World. In 2026, he was T-3rd at the Dubai Invitational and T-2nd at the Genesis. But he just hasn’t been sharp this year, but that isn’t what should bother us. I have to wonder what the true state of Rory’s back is after withdrawing on the Saturday of the Arnold Palmer. He played at the Players and shot rounds of 74-71-72-71 to finish T-46th. I wonder why he decided not to add a tournament in between the Players and the Masters. In looking at Rory’s schedule for the last five years, Rory has never taken three weeks off before a major. So, is this because he feels he needs the rest, or is it a possible back problem, and is he giving it time to get better?

So that brings us to the question: Do we pass on Rory this week? It’s going to be a demanding week for him, a lot to do and limited time to practice. But have to wonder how his state of mind really is? I am passing on Rory. Yes, I am a little concerned about his back, but I am more concerned about the responsibilities that will take Rory away from really gearing down like he did last year. Love to see him win again this week, but I don’t think that is possible.

Things you need to know about the Masters

This week will be the 90th edition of the Masters. It has been played every year, except between 1943 and 1945, when the war suspended the championship.  It has been played at Augusta National every year, the only major played on the same course each year.

The Masters was conceived by Bobby Jones, who had always dreamed of having a U.S. Open played on Augusta National.  But with the hot June summers, Jones approached the USGA about playing the Open at Augusta in April, but the USGA turned him down.  So Jones and Clifford Roberts decided to hold their annual event beginning in 1934.  Roberts proposed that the event be called the Masters’ Tournament, but Jones objected, thinking it was too presumptuous.  The name Augusta National Invitation Tournament was adopted, and that title was used for five years until 1939, when Jones relented, and the name was officially changed.

Course information:

• August National Golf Club
• August, Georgia
• 7,565 yards     Par 36-36–72

While playing championship golf, Bobby Jones had always hoped that he would be able to build a championship golf course near his Atlanta home one day.  Upon his retirement after the 1930 U.S. Amateur, Jones set out to complete his dream.  In the 1920s, he met New York banker Clifford Roberts, who helped shape Jones’s vision. After looking at several places, they both decided on Augusta, Ga., because the site offered the best winter weather.  They scouted the area for a piece of land that, according to Jones, the plans would use the property’s natural shape and slope to build the course.  Jones didn’t want a venue that relied on severe rough as a hazard and hoped to find a piece of property with a stream running through it to build several holes around it as water hazards.  He also wanted to create a championship course that would be playable for the average golfer, using mounds and slopes as hazards instead of sand bunkers.

Also helping Jones and Roberts in their search was Thomas Barrett Jr. He knew of a piece of land in Augusta that he thought would be perfect for Jones’ dream course.  He recommended a piece of property called Fruitlands Nursery.  The land consisted of 365 acres, once an indigo plantation the family bought in 1857.  The man was Louis Mathieu Edouard Berckmans, who was a horticulturist by hobby.  Along with his son Julius Alphonse, an agronomist and horticulturist by profession, they formed a business in 1858 to import trees and plants from various countries.  It would be the first commercial nursery in the south, and they called it Fruitland Nursery. Even though Berchmans died in 1883, the business flourished. Many flowering plants and trees, including a long double row of magnolias, were planted before the Civil War, and today they serve as the club’s entrance on the property.  But, Prosper’s claim to fame was that he popularized a plant called the azalea.

Upon Prosper’s death in 1910, the business stopped operation, and the heirs sought a buyer.  That buyer appeared in late 1930 when Tom Barrett first showed Jones Berchman’s nursery.  Upon seeing the property from what is now the practice putting green, Jones knew he had the perfect land for an ideal golf course.  He told Roberts and Barrett that he thought the ground had been lying there all these years, waiting for someone to come along and lay a golf course on it.

An option was taken on the property for $70,000, and it was decided to establish a national membership for the club, and Jones proposed Augusta National would be an appropriate name. Jones also agreed in the planning stage he wanted Dr. Alister Mackenzie of Scotland to serve as the course architect since the pair held similar views. Before coming to Augusta, Mackenzie had designed two courses in California – Pasatiempo and Cypress Point.  Jones played those courses after failing in the first round of the 1929 U.S. Amateur and fell in love with the courses and MacKenzie’s design.  So that was the main reason he got MacKenzie to help him.

Jones and Mackenzie completed the plans, and the construction started in July of 1931. Unfortunately, after the construction work was completed, Mackenzie died before Augusta National was entirely covered with grass. The course was finished and opened in December 1932 with limited member play. A formal opening took place in January of 1933.

Since the course opened, it has been changed several times in 87 years. In 1934, the tournament nines were different and were changed for the 1935 event. Also, the grasses have changed over the years between bent and Bermudagrass. Today, Augusta National’s tees and fairways are Bermuda grass, but they are overseeded each fall with ryegrass. The greens are bentgrass, which gives them tremendous speed and smoothness.

The average green size at Augusta is 6,150 square feet, which is about the PGA Tour average. Water comes into play on five holes on the backside, with only 43 bunkers.

For the 2019 Masters, the 5th hole was lengthened.  The land purchase that they made many years ago allowed Augusta National to shut down Berkman’s Road, which the old 5th tee was up against.  So they could move the tee back 30 yards and now make the 5th hole an absolute monster.

When the players arrived two years ago, they noticed a couple of changes to three of the holes. The par 4 11th had a new tee that added 15 yards to the hole. The tee is also to the golfer’s left of the old tee. The fairway has been re-contoured, and several trees have been removed on the right side. This change does not make the hole harder but should make the fairway more obtainable off the tee.

The second change is to par 5, which is the 15th hole.  20 yards have been added to the hole, and the fairway was also re-contoured.  20 yards shouldn’t mean much for the players, for the long hitters will have to use a long iron to get home in two, but for the player that is average length off the tee, it may give them more of a decision if they want to hit the green in two.

The last change came on par 4, the 18th hole. For the players, this is a bit strange: 13 yards have been added to the back of the tee, but they say it doesn’t change the hole’s length. Officials have changed it because more players are driving it past the big bunker on the left side of the fairway. But despite the 13 added yards, because of the dogleg right nature of the hole, it won’t add 13 yards.

With the changes, 35 yards were added to the scorecard, bringing the total yardage up to 7,510.

Now, for 2023, the big change was to the 13th hole.  We have been told that this change was years in the making and that it required the purchase of land from the neighboring Augusta Country Club.  We thought that it would happen in 2022, and it didn’t.  For this year, 35 yards have been added to the 13th hole.  This is a monumental change, one that, for half the field, means they won’t be able to go for the green in two.  For the other half, it will mean a longer shot into the green, meaning more of a challenge.  But for some of the really long hitters who have been using 3-wood off the tee for placement of the drive, they can now flair away with the driver and not worry about rolling through the fairway into the trees and the hazards that brings.

Changes for 2024

Ten yards have been added to the 2nd hole, bringing the total yardage to 7,555.

For 2026 Augusta, they have added 10 yards to the 17th hole, making it play to 450 yards.

For a more comprehensive look at the course, look at this course overview done by Masters.Com.

One last thing, looking at the weather for Augusta

The good news is that winds for the four championship days will be mild, as it will be between 6 to 11 mph. It’s not going to be warm to start, as Thursday will be 73, with temperatures climbing each day, reaching 86 on Sunday.  There will be no rain, but there could be cloudy skies on Thursday, with a change to perfect for the weekend.  Other than Thursday, when winds will be 11 mph, the rest of the days will be in the 6 to 8 mph range, so look for good scoring this week, as the course will play dry with firm, fast conditions, but lack the wind to make it tough.

Here is a link to our Masters Key fantasy stats

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Masters:

• The key stat for the winner is always been a proposal
• There are a few things that all winners at the Masters have in common.  First, it’s precise ball striking, like a Ben Hogan, length and power like Tiger Woods, deft touch with a putter on the steeply contoured greens like a Ben Crenshaw, and the mind and wisdom of a Jack Nicklaus.  2024 champion Jon Rahm is great off the tee and balls close to the hole.  2024 winner Scottie Scheffler never gets in trouble at Augusta. In 24 rounds has only made five doubles and just 58 bogeys.  Compared to making four eagles and 100 birdies.   All of these are what it takes to win the Masters.
• Precise ball hitting is a must. With steeply contoured greens, you have to position shots to the green in an area where you will set up an easy putt. That’s why players like Nick Faldo and Ben Hogan have five titles. If you look at the champions of the Masters, a poor putter usually doesn’t win.  Being able to avoid three putts is essential.
• Zach Johnson had six three-putts in 2007, and Bubba Watson had four in 2012, which dents our theory about three putts.  In looking further back in history, both Vijay Singh in 2000 and Tiger Woods in 2001 had more in the year they won the Masters than the previous seven champions of the 1990s put together.  That doesn’t mean that we will have a new trend. I will bet that the winner this year has the least three putts of anyone else in the field. Last year, Scottie Scheffler had just two three-putts and 33 one-putts over the 72 holes. In 2023, Scheffler had two three-putts and one four-putt over the 72 holes. The year before, 2021, Hideki Matsuyama had four three-putts. In 2020, Dustin Johnson only had one three-putt.  In 2019, Tiger Woods had two in his win.
• To show you how theories don’t work continually, look at the argument that says you have to hit it long to win at Augusta.  Yes, Tiger, Rory, Phil, Scottie, and Vijay hit the ball long, but past champions like Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Zach Johnson, Mark O’Meara, and Ben Crenshaw could be the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour.  Gosh, look at Jordan Spieth in 2015; he ranked 52nd in driving distance at Augusta in his winning year.  No matter what, length is significant; look at Tiger Woods’s 1997 victory. Reaching par-5s with wedges is a considerable advantage over players hitting into the greens with long irons and woods.  But again, theories don’t always work at the Masters. Look at Zach Johnson in 2007. He lay up on all the par 5s and played them in 11 under par.  Wet fairways and greens due to the weather bring in shorter hitters and give them a chance.
• The stats are great, but in reality, they don’t mean much when it comes to picking a winner at the Masters.  Since 1993, the only real favorite to win the Masters was Tiger Woods, who won in 1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 & 2019, and Phil Mickelson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  Also, I must say that the 2023 champion, Jon Rahm, Scottie in 2024, and Rory last year were important favorites who won.  Also, you have to wonder about the non-favorite who finds that special spark. How many folks placed a bet on 2019 winner Tiger Woods, or the year before with Patrick Reed, or 2016 champion Danny Willett? I would say not many people. Still, players like Sergio Garcia in 2017, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Bubba Watson in 2014, and Adam Scott winning in 2013 weren’t a big surprise. But nobody would have thought that Bubba Watson would win in 2012. It was a big surprise for Charl Schwartzel in 2011, Angel Cabrera winning in 2009, Trevor Immelman in 2008, and Zach Johnson in 2007.  Still, in the folklore of Masters champions, some surprise champions include Mike Weir, who won in 2003, and Vijay Singh in 2000.  Even more prominent surprise winners have been Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O’Meara, Bernhard Langer, and Ben Crenshaw, who came out of nowhere to win.  Still, one thing is certain: you must have a track record to win at Augusta.  The last time a non-winner from the PGA or European Tour won was back in 1948 when Claude Harmon, father of Butch, won his first and only individual title on the PGA Tour at the Masters.  As the old saying goes, records are meant to be broken, and who knows, maybe a non-winner will surprise us this week, but it’s doubtful.  So let’s see who could possibly be a “surprise winner” this year.  My first choice is Jake Knazpp, who nobody is even thinking of, and could come out of it a hero; his game should be good for Augusta.
• I can say this: look at the top 30 or 40 players off the world rankings.  We hear it all the time how the best players seem to win majors.  If you go off the world rankings, Ben Curtis was 396 when he won the British Open in 2003, and Shaun Micheel was 169 when he won the 2003 PGA Championship.  At the Masters, you won’t find that kind of a winner. Since 1988, there have been only two Masters champions not in the top 50, #56 Zach Johnson in 2007 and #69 Angel Cabrera in 2009.  In 2020, Dustin Johnson was #1, and in 2019, Tiger Woods was 12th going into the Masters; in 2018, Patrick Reed was 24th in the rankings; in 2017, Sergio Garcia was 11th; in 2016, Danny Willett was ranked 12th going into the Masters; and in 2015, Jordan Spieth was 4th going into the Masters.  In the 35 years of the world rankings, the average Masters champion ranked 14th.  We’ve seen six #1s win; 20 of the 34 winners were in the top ten the week before their victory. 2024 and in 2022, Scottie Scheffler was number one, and in 2021, Matsuyama was 25th the week before his Masters win, while Rory was 2nd when he won last year. So who could possibly win while being low in the world rankings this week?  Not harping on this, but we could have that trend broken if Brooks Koepka, who is at 169th, wins, or even Cameron Smith, who is 222nd in the rankings right now.
• Lastly, experience and wisdom are essential, which is why Jack Nicklaus has six titles. The last player to win the Masters in his first start is Fuzzy Zoeller, who did it back in 1979.  Of the 22 “rookies” at the Masters, there are two or three I would bet a dollar or two on. Experience is always important at the Masters, so look for a winner, someone with a lot of experience.