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BlogRBC Canadian Preview and Picks

RBC Canadian Open

July 21st – 24th, 2016

Glen Abbey G.C.

Oakville, Ontario, Canada

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,253

Purse: $5.9 million

with $1,062,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jason Day

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 23 of the top 100 players and 13 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with two of the top-ten in the field: #1 Jason Day and #2 Dustin Johnson.  Here are the other top 50 players in the field: #17 Matt Kuchar, #22 Jim Furyk, #23 Brandt Snedeker, #30 Kevin Kisner, #40 Emiliano Grillo, #41 Charley Hoffman, #43 Danny Lee, #44 K.T. Kim, #45 Matthew Fitzpatrick, #47 William McGirt, #49 Jimmy Walker.

Last year there were 9 players from the top 50 in the field

The field includes 6 of the Top 25 on this year’s FedEx Cup point list:  Those players include #1 Dustin Johnson, #2 Jason Day, #7 Brandt Snedeker, #12 Kevin Kisner, #15 William McGirt and #16 Matt Kuchar.

The field includes 6 of the Top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list:  Those players include #1 Dustin Johnson, #2 Jason Day, #11 William McGirt, #13 Brandt Snedeker, #14 Matt Kuchar and #17 Kevin Kisner.

The field includes 7 past champions: Jason Day (2015), Brandt Snedeker (2013), Sean O’Hair (2011), Carl Pettersson (2010),  Chez Reavie (2008), Jim Furyk (2006 & ’07) and Vijay Singh (2004).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the RBC Canadian Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at RBC Canadian Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the RBC Canadian Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

24/7 GOLF is no more.  We have retired the name and the app for a new and better app for golf.  So check out

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So if you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called GOLF IQ.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the RBC Canadian Open

Player British Open Barbasol Scottish Open WGC – Bridgestone French Open Barracuda Quicken Loans BMW Intern. U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters
Dustin Johnson
(540.67 pts)
T9
(90)
DNP DNP Win
(198)
DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(176)
5
(46.67)
DNP 3
(30)
DNP
Jason Day
(265.33 pts)
T22
(56)
DNP DNP T3
(135)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T8
(66.67)
DNP DNP T27
(7.67)
DNP
Matt Kuchar
(175 pts)
T46
(8)
DNP DNP T3
(135)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T46
(5.33)
DNP DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP
Jim Furyk
(164.67 pts)
T59
(0)
DNP DNP T42
(12)
DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T2
(133.33)
DNP DNP T52
(0)
DNP
Emiliano Grillo
(143 pts)
T12
(76)
DNP DNP T14
(54)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP T11
(13)
DNP
Greg Chalmers
(132 pts)
81
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Sam Saunders
(125 pts)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP DNP DNP T9
(45)
T21
(19.33)
DNP DNP T34
(10.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Si Woo Kim
(101.67 pts)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP T35
(15)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T74
(0)
DNP
Steve Wheatcroft
(99.33 pts)
DNP T20
(30)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(70)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T41
(6)
DNP DNP DNP
Jon Rahm
(96 pts)
T59
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T72
(0)
T3
(60)
DNP T23
(36)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Billy Hurley III
(95.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T36
(21)
DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T52
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Robert Garrigus
(94 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
DNP DNP DNP T29
(21)
T8
(33.33)
DNP DNP T50
(0.67)
DNP DNP DNP
William McGirt
(93.17 pts)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP T7
(82.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP Win
(44)
DNP
Kevin Streelman
(91.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP T13
(49.33)
DNP DNP T8
(16.67)
DNP
Colt Knost
(91.33 pts)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Michael Kim
(90.67 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
DNP DNP DNP T35
(15)
T29
(14)
DNP DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Michael Johnson
(90 pts)
DNP 3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Daniel Summerhays
(90 pts)
T59
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T8
(66.67)
DNP DNP T38
(4)
DNP
Ben Martin
(86.33 pts)
DNP T20
(30)
DNP DNP DNP T7
(55)
T44
(4)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T38
(4)
DNP
Brandt Snedeker
(86.17 pts)
T22
(56)
DNP DNP T21
(43.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Jhonattan Vegas
(80.67 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP T53
(0)
T44
(4)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Andres Gonzales
(75.33 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
T12
(25.33)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Richard H. Lee
(73.33 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Wes Roach
(72.33 pts)
DNP T76
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T13
(37)
T29
(14)
DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Graham Delaet
(71 pts)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP DNP DNP T29
(21)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the RBC Canadian Open

Player British Open Barbasol Scottish Open WGC – Bridgestone French Open Barracuda Quicken Loans BMW Intern. U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters
Carlos Ortiz
(-40 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T53
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Steven Bowditch
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP 58
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T70
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Martin Piller
(-33.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
J.J. Henry
(-30 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Dawie Van der walt
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
T64
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Andrew Loupe
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Scott Pinckney
(-26.67 pts)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Jordan Niebrugge
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Peter Malnati
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Cameron Smith
(-23.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP 65
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T59
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

 

Have to say that we probably saw one of the greatest final round performances ever in a major championship with Henrik Stenson winning the British Open. Only one other time has 20 under par been recorded in a major as Stenson joined last year’s PGA Champion Jason Day at that 20 under figure.  But Stenson’s 264 total is the new low 72 hole score in a major.  With Stenson shooting 63 in the final round, he becomes the 28th player to accomplish that feat in a major.  Now five different players have shot 63 in the final round, but Stenson joins Johnny Miller (shot in the 1973 U.S. Open) as the only player to win by shooting 63 in the final round.

 

But let’s take it a step further.  Is it the best final round in a major?  To determine that you look at the scoring average of the field and the final round scoring average on Sunday was 72.802 so you subtract Stenson’s 63 and get a 9.802 under par score.  In looking through all the scores in major Championships going back to World War II Stenson’s round would go in second place behind Miller’s round which was rated 10.77 because the final round average for the 1973 U.S. Open was 73.77.  Oh for those wondering what the all-time under par total in a major championship was Tommy Bolt shot 67 in the first round of the 1955 U.S. Open when the scoring average was 79.76 for a 12.76 average.

 

As for Stenson who was 40 years, 3 months and 12 days old he becomes the oldest first-time winner of a major since Darren Clarke won the Open in 2011 at the age of 42. Age is becoming a theme in winning the Open Championship, Stenson joins Clarke, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson as over 40 Open champions so that’s 4 in the last six years.

 

Have to wonder also if this doesn’t open up the flood gates for Stenson.  He has knocked on heavens door many times in major championship golf, in 41 previous starts he has finished in the top-five, seven times in majors so he has been long overdue to win.

 

So with the last major of the year the PGA Championship just 10 days away you have a new favorite in Henrik Stenson.

 

Yes it’s hard to believe that as I leave Scotland for home I have just a week to unpack and pack again for the PGA Championship.  In a way I can now understand the reasons for all these guys not playing in the Olympics, there are way too many great events in a short period of time.  It seems that we have a big event ever two weeks now, just in the span of the next 11 weeks we have a major championship, four FedEx Cup playoff events and a Ryder Cup and that doesn’t include the Olympics.  Something has to give and in this case it’s the Olympics.

 

May seem hard to believe but we are getting close to the end of the season.  We have just five PGA Tour events left before the FedEx Cup playoffs and it’s impossible to tell you who the player of the year is.  Lot’s of great candidates between Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, you now have Henrik Stenson to throw into the equation.  I would say that if any of these five win the FedEx Cup playoffs or if they win the PGA Championship the winner will be determined, but with some time left it’s still up in the air.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the RBC Canadian Open:

This is based on the most vital stats from Glen Abbey, based on data from last year’s RBC Canadian Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.
Even though this event tries to move around to different courses in Canada, Glen Abbey has been used 8 times since 1998. So players have a good idea how to play the course.

The course is Jack Nicklaus first effort by himself. It’s very well loved by PGA Tour players who find the course challenging off the tee, but easy to score. Last year the course played to a 71.21 average, three quarter shots under par. It ranked 31st hardest on tour. One thing that really sticks out is that players have to drive it straight and the course can’t be overpowered. It has a very unusual finish as three of the final 6 holes are par 5, so scoring tends to come late. Even though four of the last six holes are the easiest on the course, the par 4, 14th was the hardest hole and the par 4, 17th hole was the 4th hardest. So the finish isn’t a complete lay down.

One thing that the players will have is another week of rain. In looking at the forecast for Glen Abbey it’s going to rain every day and it’s going to be hot with lot’s of thunderstorms in the afternoon. There will be some wind, with it averaging between 15 and 20 mph so it’s going to be down right awful. So again have to look for a mudder to win this week.

So will every phase of the game will be examined at Glen Abbey? Not really, yes it’s tough off the tee but then pretty easy with greens that are true and not that tough. It’s a course that anybody that plays it will have a chance to win.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Fairway Accuracy. It’s what makes this course tough and last year Glen Abbey ranked 4th hardest on tour, so you have to be straight to play well. Next up is Greens in Regulation, Glen Abbey ranked T-16th and you better be good with your irons to the greens. Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting, we chose that because Glen Abbey was easy in all putting stats including putting average were it ranked 44th. So look for good putter to do well. Last is birdie average, lot’s of birdies are made with the average being 3.91 per player which ranks 40th on tour.

But all of this will mean nothing if the weather is poor. Just looked at what happened at New Orleans, you may have a winner that you never would of imagined winning this week.
*Fairway Accuracy: The percentage of time a tee shot comes to rest in the fairway

*Greens in Regulation: The percent of time a player was able to hit the green in regulation

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made during a round.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Those that have played the course before will have a slight edge but the key to the course will be for those to manage the par 4s.  With the 16th playing as a par 4 in 2004 instead of a par 5, it was the 11th toughest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004.  In 2009 as a par 5 it was the 896th rank hole that year on the PGA Tour (out of 918) showing how much easier it is as a par 5.  Last year it was the 920th hardest hole on tour (out of 936) playing to a 4.457 avearge  The 14th hole was the 10th hardest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004 and the 48th hardest in 2009 as it played to a 4.276 average.  Last year it was the 47th hardest hole on Tour at 4.282 Both holes will be important for the winner to master.  Both of these holes will hold the key to a winners score.  Last year Day played the 14th hole in 1 over and the 16th hole in 3 under.  The real key for Day winning, he played 16, 17 and 18 in 10 under par.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Over the years Glen Abbey got a reputation as a long hitters kind of course, but if you look at all of the champions since 1990 all but Jason Day, Greg Norman, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh were short hitters.  Another thing, most of the winners at Glen Abbey fade the ball, that makes sense since five of the six holes that bend go to the right, a Jack Nicklaus design trait.
  • Greens are contoured and well bunkered which means that those that scramble will do very well.
  • Putting seems to be the key to success at Glen Abbey.  Those that have putted well tend to get the nod over players that hit lots of greens.  So a good putter and scrambler will prevail this week.
  • With the last hole being a par 5, it has produced some wild finishes over the years. Final hole birdies were made by Greg Norman in 1992 to get into a playoff, and by David Frost (’93) and Nick Price (’94) to win by one.  ’98 was the most bizarre finish with Andrade winning the playoff with a par, while in  ’99 Hal Sutton birdied the hole three times and made par it in the final round.  2000 will always be tops on the highlight reel for Tiger Woods hitting the prettiest shot from a fairway bunker over the lake to made birdie and nip Grath Waite by a shot while in 2004 Vijay Singh made a birdie, Mike Weir didn’t which forced a playoff which Singh won.  In 2008 Chez Reavie played the hole in three under, including a birdie in the final round, an accomplishment that most of the winners achieve in the final round.  Last year Day birdied the final hole to win by a shot over Bubba Watson.  The 18th hole proved to be kind to Day last year as he made three birdies and a eagle on the hole.
  • With all the rain predicted and a field that isn’t loaded with marquee names I would say a first time winner is very probable.  The last two winners Jason Day and Brandt Sneaker weren’t first time winners but the past has been loaded with them. Nathan Green was a first time winner in 2009 when the Canadian Open was held at Glen Abbey.  Chez Reavie was also a first time PGA Tour winner in 2008. The last time a first-time winner prevailed at the Canadian Open was in 2002 and previous to that was in 1996 when Dudley Hart won and before that it was in 1981 when Peter Oosterhuis won.  So the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey has favored non-winners, a trend that could continue this year.
  • Now we tend to forget that this is the national open of Canada but it’s been a while since a Canadian has one it.  You have to go back to 1954 when Pat Fletcher won it.  Mike Weir came close to winning in 2004, only to give up a lead on the final holes and then lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that it’s been a bit bare as Dave Barr finished T4th in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5th in 2001.   Now Weir has always been the sentimental choice of this event, but for the first time since 1991 Weir won’t be in the field as he still has the injury with his elbow. There will be 12 Canadians in the field and frankly I can’t see any of them winning this year.

Who to watch for at the RBC Canadian Open

Best Bets:

Dustin Johnson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T2 WD

Hasn’t played much in this event or at Glen Abbey but still is the favorite based on his great play this year. Hasn’t been out of the top-10 since the Byron Nelson.

Jason Day

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
Win 52 T48

Has been flat in last two majors, taking it a step further hasn’t really been sharp since winning the Players. Has been in a funk since blowing Bridgestone, but has a good chance of getting that back this week.

Jim Furyk

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
4 2 T9 CUT T34 T14 Win Win

Been playing good, has always done well at Glen Abbey.

Best of the rest:

Charley Hoffman

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T7 CUT T16 CUT T4 T28

Plays good in bad weather, he was T7th last year.

Matt Kuchar

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T7 T4 T2 T34 CUT T4 CUT T14

Another good player at Glen Abbey, he also can hold his own in bad weather.

Brandt Snedeker

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T25 Win T34 CUT T5 T7

Guy won earlier this year in some really bad weather at Torrey, plus he is a past winner of this event.

Danny Summerhays

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Was T-11th last year, played ok at the British.

Solid contenders

Kevin Streelman

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T73 T34 CUT T31 T30

Guy has been solid of late.

Emiliano Grillo

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T22

Time to watch this kid, was T-12th at the British, T-14th at the Bridgestone and T-11th at the Memorial.

Ryan Palmer

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T41 T31 T19 T24 T64 T22 T3 CUT CUT

Always good in bad weather, has played ok this year but would love to make his year even better with a win.

Danny Lee

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T34 CUT CUT

A guy to watch, good in bad weather and his game is coming around.

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Long shots that could come through:

Ricky Barnes

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T11 T43 CUT T48 T37

Is a good bad weather player, watch him this week.

Bryson DeChambeau

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Still looking for his PGA Tour card for next year and is running out of time to get it.

Sam Saunders

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T22

Was T-8th at Barbasol and T-9th at Barracuda.

K.T. Kim

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Great record in Japan, this guy would be your best case for a longshot.

Comments

  1. Sal, no David Hearn? good form recently and played well last year here. Plus a Canadian.

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