BlogRBC Canadian Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to say that we probably saw one of the greatest final round performances ever in a major championship with Henrik Stenson winning the British Open. Only one other time has 20 under par been recorded in a major as Stenson joined last year’s PGA Champion Jason Day at that 20 under figure.  But Stenson’s 264 total is the new low 72 hole score in a major.  With Stenson shooting 63 in the final round, he becomes the 28th player to accomplish that feat in a major.  Now five different players have shot 63 in the final round, but Stenson joins Johnny Miller (shot in the 1973 U.S. Open) as the only player to win by shooting 63 in the final round.

But let’s take it a step further.  Is it the best final round in a major?  To determine that you look at the scoring average of the field and the final round scoring average on Sunday was 72.802 so you subtract Stenson’s 63 and get a 9.802 under par score.  In looking through all the scores in major Championships going back to World War II Stenson’s round would go in second place behind Miller’s round which was rated 10.77 because the final round average for the 1973 U.S. Open was 73.77.  Oh for those wondering what the all-time under par total in a major championship was Tommy Bolt shot 67 in the first round of the 1955 U.S. Open when the scoring average was 79.76 for a 12.76 average.

As for Stenson who was 40 years, 3 months and 12 days old he becomes the oldest first-time winner of a major since Darren Clarke won the Open in 2011 at the age of 42. Age is becoming a theme in winning the Open Championship, Stenson joins Clarke, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson as over 40 Open champions so that’s 4 in the last six years.

Have to wonder also if this doesn’t open up the flood gates for Stenson.  He has knocked on heavens door many times in major championship golf, in 41 previous starts he has finished in the top-five, seven times in majors so he has been long overdue to win.

So with the last major of the year the PGA Championship just 10 days away you have a new favorite in Henrik Stenson.

Yes it’s hard to believe that as I leave Scotland for home I have just a week to unpack and pack again for the PGA Championship.  In a way I can now understand the reasons for all these guys not playing in the Olympics, there are way too many great events in a short period of time.  It seems that we have a big event ever two weeks now, just in the span of the next 11 weeks we have a major championship, four FedEx Cup playoff events and a Ryder Cup and that doesn’t include the Olympics.  Something has to give and in this case it’s the Olympics.

May seem hard to believe but we are getting close to the end of the season.  We have just five PGA Tour events left before the FedEx Cup playoffs and it’s impossible to tell you who the player of the year is.  Lot’s of great candidates between Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, you now have Henrik Stenson to throw into the equation.  I would say that if any of these five win the FedEx Cup playoffs or if they win the PGA Championship the winner will be determined, but with some time left it’s still up in the air.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the RBC Canadian Open:

This is based on the most vital stats from Glen Abbey, based on data from last year’s RBC Canadian Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.
Even though this event tries to move around to different courses in Canada, Glen Abbey has been used 8 times since 1998. So players have a good idea how to play the course.

The course is Jack Nicklaus first effort by himself. It’s very well loved by PGA Tour players who find the course challenging off the tee, but easy to score. Last year the course played to a 71.21 average, three quarter shots under par. It ranked 31st hardest on tour. One thing that really sticks out is that players have to drive it straight and the course can’t be overpowered. It has a very unusual finish as three of the final 6 holes are par 5, so scoring tends to come late. Even though four of the last six holes are the easiest on the course, the par 4, 14th was the hardest hole and the par 4, 17th hole was the 4th hardest. So the finish isn’t a complete lay down.

One thing that the players will have is another week of rain. In looking at the forecast for Glen Abbey it’s going to rain every day and it’s going to be hot with lot’s of thunderstorms in the afternoon. There will be some wind, with it averaging between 15 and 20 mph so it’s going to be down right awful. So again have to look for a mudder to win this week.

So will every phase of the game will be examined at Glen Abbey? Not really, yes it’s tough off the tee but then pretty easy with greens that are true and not that tough. It’s a course that anybody that plays it will have a chance to win.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Fairway Accuracy. It’s what makes this course tough and last year Glen Abbey ranked 4th hardest on tour, so you have to be straight to play well. Next up is Greens in Regulation, Glen Abbey ranked T-16th and you better be good with your irons to the greens. Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting, we chose that because Glen Abbey was easy in all putting stats including putting average were it ranked 44th. So look for good putter to do well. Last is birdie average, lot’s of birdies are made with the average being 3.91 per player which ranks 40th on tour.

But all of this will mean nothing if the weather is poor. Just looked at what happened at New Orleans, you may have a winner that you never would of imagined winning this week.
*Fairway Accuracy: The percentage of time a tee shot comes to rest in the fairway

*Greens in Regulation: The percent of time a player was able to hit the green in regulation

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made during a round.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Those that have played the course before will have a slight edge but the key to the course will be for those to manage the par 4s.  With the 16th playing as a par 4 in 2004 instead of a par 5, it was the 11th toughest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004.  In 2009 as a par 5 it was the 896th rank hole that year on the PGA Tour (out of 918) showing how much easier it is as a par 5.  Last year it was the 920th hardest hole on tour (out of 936) playing to a 4.457 avearge  The 14th hole was the 10th hardest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004 and the 48th hardest in 2009 as it played to a 4.276 average.  Last year it was the 47th hardest hole on Tour at 4.282 Both holes will be important for the winner to master.  Both of these holes will hold the key to a winners score.  Last year Day played the 14th hole in 1 over and the 16th hole in 3 under.  The real key for Day winning, he played 16, 17 and 18 in 10 under par.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Over the years Glen Abbey got a reputation as a long hitters kind of course, but if you look at all of the champions since 1990 all but Jason Day, Greg Norman, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh were short hitters.  Another thing, most of the winners at Glen Abbey fade the ball, that makes sense since five of the six holes that bend go to the right, a Jack Nicklaus design trait.
• Greens are contoured and well bunkered which means that those that scramble will do very well.
• Putting seems to be the key to success at Glen Abbey.  Those that have putted well tend to get the nod over players that hit lots of greens.  So a good putter and scrambler will prevail this week.
• With the last hole being a par 5, it has produced some wild finishes over the years. Final hole birdies were made by Greg Norman in 1992 to get into a playoff, and by David Frost (’93) and Nick Price (’94) to win by one.  ’98 was the most bizarre finish with Andrade winning the playoff with a par, while in  ’99 Hal Sutton birdied the hole three times and made par it in the final round.  2000 will always be tops on the highlight reel for Tiger Woods hitting the prettiest shot from a fairway bunker over the lake to made birdie and nip Grath Waite by a shot while in 2004 Vijay Singh made a birdie, Mike Weir didn’t which forced a playoff which Singh won.  In 2008 Chez Reavie played the hole in three under, including a birdie in the final round, an accomplishment that most of the winners achieve in the final round.  Last year Day birdied the final hole to win by a shot over Bubba Watson.  The 18th hole proved to be kind to Day last year as he made three birdies and a eagle on the hole.
• With all the rain predicted and a field that isn’t loaded with marquee names I would say a first time winner is very probable.  The last two winners Jason Day and Brandt Sneaker weren’t first time winners but the past has been loaded with them. Nathan Green was a first time winner in 2009 when the Canadian Open was held at Glen Abbey.  Chez Reavie was also a first time PGA Tour winner in 2008. The last time a first-time winner prevailed at the Canadian Open was in 2002 and previous to that was in 1996 when Dudley Hart won and before that it was in 1981 when Peter Oosterhuis won.  So the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey has favored non-winners, a trend that could continue this year.
• Now we tend to forget that this is the national open of Canada but it’s been a while since a Canadian has one it.  You have to go back to 1954 when Pat Fletcher won it.  Mike Weir came close to winning in 2004, only to give up a lead on the final holes and then lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that it’s been a bit bare as Dave Barr finished T4th in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5th in 2001.   Now Weir has always been the sentimental choice of this event, but for the first time since 1991 Weir won’t be in the field as he still has the injury with his elbow. There will be 12 Canadians in the field and frankly I can’t see any of them winning this year.