BlogBMW PGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to say the European Tour has had a lot of tough times since the COVID-19 became a reality in February.  The European Tour goes to not only Europe but South Africa, India, China, Australian, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia, to name a few.  Little did anyone know that when Jorge Campillo won the Qatar Masters on the first weekend in March, that about half of the European Tour would cancel events and that the Tour wouldn’t start up until the second week of July.  The only thing that got things going was the six-event UK swing, which proved to be a godsend for European Tour players even though the prize money available to players had dropped markedly, to the point in which players on the LPGA Tour were making more than European Tour players.  For 12 straight weeks, first-place prize money was between the high of $233,000 at the Andalucia Masters to the $93,376 of the Open de Portugal.  It didn’t matter for the players. Yes, the fields’ stature was very low as, at times, it looked more like a European Tour Challenge event as we saw newcomers like Garrick Higgo, John Caltin, and Rasmus Hojgaard win.  But all of that changed last week as the Aberdeen Standard Scottish Open had a $7 million purse with Aaron Rai winning $1,142,000.

This week the tour moves down outside London for the BMW PGA Championship.  It’s the most prestigious event on the European Tour, and this week has a pretty good field of five top-25 players in the field.

As a matter of fact, the field is so good that frankly, it’s the big tournament to watch and play DraftKings to.  Over the years, the course Wentworth has gone through some drastic changes as some have not liked what they have done, but the last Ernie Els tweaks look like they have addressed the problems, and everyone seems to like the way the course is now.

Plus, this is a week to celebrate the European Tour being able to come back and overcome the virus.  Still, the European Tour’s outlook is not as rosy as it is for the American Tour.  Yes, they will be playing for a $7 million purse this week. Still, when Midnight strikes Sunday night, the European Tour will return as a pumpkin as it’s next four events will have small $1.2 million purses, with the season coming to an end in Dubai in December with a still-unnamed figure on how much their final event will be played for.

The future is also very cloudy as the 2021 schedule hasn’t come out yet and the prospect of playing in places like Asia, China, India, and Australia are still closed down to the virus.  Since the European Tour is so cosmopolitan in traveling the world, the prospect is dim for half of the European Tour schedule’s events.  So the future for the European Tour in 2021 is to play in a lot of tournaments with the low million euro purses (about 1.2 million American dollars) which will create an even more immense strain on the Tour finances.  Things could get so bad that the European Tour could be forced to consolidate with other tours, including the PGA Tour, to keep it going.  Nobody really has the right answer but we all root for the powers to be at the European Tour find some viable path towards keeping its own identity and absorb another challenging year ahead.  Things will get better, and as we have seen with more folks playing the game right now than in the last decade, the same will happen with the European Tour picking up more sponsors and events when the virus finally gets defeated.

But we have this week, and it will be an excellent show with a good field on a great golf course.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the BMW PGA Championship.

The key stat for the winner:

Wentworth is a classic shotmaker course. That is why those that hit lots of greens like Luke Donald have done well at Wentworth.  Having a short game is also important because for those who miss the greens, getting it up and down is tough as there are many bumps and knolls around these greens.  But the key to playing well is to hit lots of greens like last year’s winner Danny Willett who was T-1st in greens hit.  The same from Byeong-Hun An, who in 2015 only missed 11 greens all week, leading the field in greens hit.  To show how important it is to hit greens, going back to 2009, nine of the 12 champions were in the top-ten of greens hit.  The only ones that weren’t in it were Rory McIlroy in 2014 (T-22nd), Alex Noren was T-18th in 2017, and Francesco Molinari was T-61st in 2018.

Since significant work was done on Wentworth in 2011, the par 4s are really tough, some of the hardest on the European Tour with five of the 12 playing over 449 yards.  In the last six years, those that made the cut have played the par 4s in 4.3 over par while those in the top-ten have averaged a half a shot under par.  So you can see how Luke Donald won in 2012 when he played the 4s in 3 under, Matteo Manassero was 1 over in his ’13 win, Rory McIlroy played the par 4s in 1 under in 2014, Byeong-Hun An was 3 under on the par 4s in 2015, and Chris Wood was 2 under on them in 2016, 2017 winner Alex Noren was 3 under, 2018 winner Francesco Molinari played them in 5 under and last year Danny Willett played the par 4s the best of anyone at 8 under.

On top of new greens that went in before the 2017 event, many other things have been done to Wentworth.  29 bunkers were removed entirely as ever bunker on the course was redesigned and rebuilt.  So now it’s going to be a lot tougher if you hit it into one of them.  Hopefully, with these changes and the ones a couple of years ago, it will be more appealing to the players.

Weather will be a problem for most of the week as it will rain lightly on Thursday, Friday, and in the morning on Saturday.  Sunday will be fine, but each day temperatures will be between 55 and 59 degrees.  Winds will be brisk all four days between 10 and 16 mph, with Thursday having the worst of it.  Because of this, I see scores higher than in past years and more marquee players at the top of the leaderboard.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Patrick Reed – $11,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $11,000
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,500
• Justin Rose – $10,000
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,800
• Erik Van Rooyen – $9,700
• Thomas Pieters – $9,600
• Shane Lowry – $9,500
• Bernd Wiesberger – $9,400
• Matt Wallace – $9,300
• Aaron Rai – $9,200
• Rasmus Hojgaard – $9,100
• Andy Sullivan – $9,000

Tough decisions to make, first of all of those in the under $9,000 category, only Thomas Pieters, Aaron Rai, and Rasmus Hojgaard have played well since the break.  As for Patrick Reed at $11,200, he is also playing well, he was T-13th at the U.S. Open after leading in the second round and was T-8th at the Tour Championship.  Reed was 3rd in his only Wentworth start last year so for him to get on an airplane and go over to England shows he feels his game is worth the gamble.  He is a lot of money, but it’s probably ok to go with Reed this week with all the others not worth the cost.  For Tommy Fleetwood at $11,000, he had his only great start since the break last week in Scotland, where he finished 2nd. Usually, I would say he is a go for this week, but he has struggled at Wentwork.  Since finishing T-6th in 2015, he was 69th in 2016, missed the cut in 2017, T-20th in 2018, and T-60th last year.  Over those last four years, he is 14 over par and tells us that this isn’t a course for Fleetwood.  As for Tyrrell Hatton at $10,500, he missed the cut last year and in 2018, and despite finishing T-7th in 2016, I still say a big fat no to Hatton.  Justin Rose, at $10,500, is a joke, even though he has played well at Wentworth.  But his last eight years has been a struggle, and frankly, he would be a toss-up pick if he was priced at $7,500.  Now Matthew Fitzpatrick at $9,800 is one to think about, he was T-8th in 2018 and T-12th in 2017.  Last year he was T-46th but what worries me is he missed the cut at the U.S. Open and was T-42nd in Scotland last week.  Still had was 3rd at Memorial, T-6th at the WGC event in Memphis, and T-6th on the challenging course at the BMW Championship.  So it’s a toss-up pick on Fitzpatrick, but I am not going to pick him.  Erik Van Rooyen, at $9,700, has played ok at Wentworth, was T-14th last year, and T-20th in his rookie start in 2018.  He played well at the U.S. Open, finishing T-23rd and last week shot a final round 65 to finish T-6th in Scotland, so yes, he can do well.  Thomas Pieters at $9,600 has not been great in six Wentworth starts, the best was T-14th in 2017.  He has limited success this year, and last week missed the cut in Scotland, so he is one to pass on.  Shane Lowry at $9,500 is one that many will pass on since he has struggled since he won the Open 14 months ago.  Had to be a bit low for him two weeks ago, returning to Northern Ireland in the Irish Open and missing the cut.  But in looking at his starts at Wentworth, they have been pretty good.  Other than missed the cut in 2016, he has been in the top-15 in six of his last seven Wentworth starts and was 2nd in 2014.  He was T-11th last year, but the point is he plays well at Wentworth and worth the gamble.  As for Bernd Wiesberger at $9,400, he has no redeeming value anywhere to justify a pick.  The same is Matt Wallace at $9,300, he hasn’t shown us any forum to playing well.  At $9,200, Aaron Rai will be chosen by many because of winning last week in Scotland.  But at Wentworth, he was T-26th last year and missed the cut in 2018, so I will pass on him.  Rasmus Hojgaard, at $9,100, is another pass, playing for the first time at Wentworth he did win the UK Championship a month ago but has struggled since.  Andy Sullivan, at $9,000, is another question mark, he has never achieved much at Wentworth, and since winning the English Championship two months ago, he has played terribly with missing the cut at Andalucia and the U.S. Open, along with a T-28th last week in Scotland.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, Ian Poulter at $8,900, is one to think about until you see his dismal record at Wentworth with only one top-ten in 16 starts.  He is one to pass on.  Lee Westwood, at $8,700, is a choice, he has two runner-up finishes at Wentworth, that along with having a lot of top-20 finishes, tells me he is worth the $8,700.  At $8,500, Sam Horsfield is worth the cost, he has played ok at Wentworth in two starts and won twice in August.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout, at $8,300, is worth is after a 3rd place finish last year.  At $7,600, John Catlin is worth the money since he has two wins in his previous four starts, but beware he missed the cut in Scotland last week and is making his first Wentworth start.

Any bargains out there?

At $7,500, George Coetzee is worth a look based on his play in Europe since the break.  He won the Portugal Masters and was T-3rd in his next start in Portugal.  But he has struggled at Wentworth, which could make up your mind.  Danny Willett is defending and frankly way too low at $7,500, so he will be picked by many others.  At $7,300, Andrew Johnston is worth the price just because he was T-9th last year and T-7th in 2016 at Wentworth.  At $7,000, Ross Fisher is always worth the price, was T-31st last year, but T-8th in 2019 and T=9th in 2017, so he does have good memories of the course.