BlogPalmetto Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week the Tour moves back to South Carolina for its third event in the state in the last nine weeks.  The Palmetto Championship at Congaree is replacing the RBC Canadian Open for this year, which for the second year in a row was canceled due to COVID-19.

The good news is that the PGA Tour picked a great course to introduce to Golf.  Because the Congaree Golf Club is so exclusive (in reality it has only one member), most of the golfing world doesn’t know the charm of the place.  In some sense because of their philanthropy work, a lot of people you least expected have been on the course.  But on the whole, the course is hidden in the sticks of South Carolina.  It will be interesting the reception that it gets this week because even though the course is only three years old it has already bid for the Presidents Cup and PGA Championship.  It’s a course that is so good and ready right now for any kind of big tournament.  The PGA Tour saw it and grasp at the ring.

But the reality is the logistics of the whole thing.  How great the course is, this is not the way to prep for the U.S. Open on a course with totally different grass, cool weather with winds coming ff the Pacific.  In studying Congaree it’s the total opposite of Torrey, so that is the reason so many marquee players aren’t here this week, what a shame.  You would never see a Rory McIlroy or a Dustin Johnson or a Brooks Koepka prepping for the British Open at the John Deere Classic.  The same this week.

The 2nd reason is the logistics of getting from Ridgeland, South Carolina to San Diego which is just over 2,000 miles away.  Delta doesn’t have many flights out of Ridgeland going to San Diego, even though Ridgeland does have an airport.  But you won’t find any Netjets flying into Ridgeland Airport since its main runway is only 2,700 feet long.  The point is getting from Congaree to Torrey Pines is too hard and probably at best take most of the day to achieve, something that most of the players want to avoid.

So what is the plan for Congaree?

Just like the Concession Golf Club in Florida, this week will be about watching and seeing the reaction of players, gallery and home viewers.  Concession got nothing but praise from everyone involved so the odds are good we will see it again in the future.  As for Congaree, the same holds true.  One thing the tour will be interested in is how many people make the trek to the lowlands of South Carolina to watch play.  The tour will also want to see what the players think of the course and its playability.

Last week’s “800-pound Gorilla,” Jon Rahm

Sunday was a great day of golf at the Memorial with a mano-a-mano battle between Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa.  Frankly, the TV was better than seeing Jon Rahm running away with a big final-round lead.  But what Cantlay and Morikaw gave us was a great duel for most of the day, and in a playoff, Cantlay won with a par on the first extra hole.  It’s was a great show watching these two youngsters, but this storyline was different than what it should have been.

On Saturday, the storyline was Jon Rahm.  After a front nine 34, he took control of the Memorial with six birdies on the back nine to shot 64, which should have given him a six-shot lead going into the final round.  As we all know now, Rahm was met by PGA Tour officials to provide him with the horrible news that the COVID test he took before teeing off had come up positive.  With that and according to PGA Tour rules and protocol, a positive test result meant he had to withdraw.

This has caused quite a firestorm.  The big question that is still gathering speed is the thought of how on June 5th could something like this really happen?  In this day and age in which so many great vaccines are readily available since April, could a PGA Tour player test positive for COVID?  We would of thought by now most of the players, like other athletes in other sports like Baseball and Basketball, would have done the shots.  Unfortunately, this incident has peeled off the skin of a very smelly situation in which we are finding out that Jon Rahm was probably not vaccinated.  When he arrived at the Memorial on Monday, he was told that he was subject to contact-tracing protocols, as he had come in close contact with a person who was COVID positive.  That meant he had to be tested daily and restricted to indoor facilities.  Despite that, and through the week of tests, Rahm remained asymptomatic.

On Saturday, Rahm completed his second round (rain-delayed) was given his daily COVID test.  Unfortunately, it took a bit of time for the results, and while Rahm was on the back nine of his third round, the test returned positive.  The Tour requested a second test and while Rahm was finishing his round that test was also positive.

So that is why Rahm found out on the 18th green and doubled over with the bad news.  This set up a big firestorm not only on the PGA Tour but Rahm, who, despite not getting it verified, looks like he either never got the vaccine.  There are some reports that state Rahm did get the vaccine probably on Tuesday at Muirfield Village, but it wasn’t in time for Saturday’s test.  The smelly part of all this reflects the lack of news because the Tour keeps players’ medical situations confidential.  Another ugly moment occurred when Andy Levinson, the PGA Tour VP of tournament administration, said that the percentage of Tour players vaccinated is “north of 50%.”  With that statement, he told the world that up to 49% of the players on Tour had not been vaccinated.  So many are wondering how in this day and age when we felt that COVID-19 was in our rearview mirror, it isn’t.  The United States, despite its aggressive attitude to get people vaccinated, is still having a tough time getting that 30% of unvaccinated people vaccinated.

For the fans, what happened stinks.  But for those that are placing bets on golf, this is terrible.  Here is just one example of why this isn’t good.  For the last year, the PGA Tour has made millions embracing themselves with gambling interests.  In doing this, everyone wants this to be as clean as possible.  But with the forced withdrawal of Rahm for many, this was very unfortunate.  The one significant example is in DraftKings PGA Tour $1 million game.  In it, 58,823 plucked down $20 for the chance of winning the first-place prize of $300,000.  Of those in the game, 7,454 people, or 12.7%, picked Jon Rahm.  On Saturday night, 15 of the top-25 people had picked Jon Rahm.  ZEUSMAN1711 was the leader over three days, his team of six players accumulated 455 points, 12.5 points more than the person in second.  So with Rahm, ZEUSMAN1711 also had Morikawa and Cantlay he was well on the way to winning $300,000.  But when he had to drop Rahm on the final day, he earned fewer points because only five players earned points, and ZEUSMAN1711 finished the contest in 5th place.  He won $20,000, which is nice but nothing compared to the $300,000 he probably would have won.  He wasn’t the only one affected, of the 15 that ended Saturday in the top-25, only six finished in the top-28.  On Saturday, joepesci11 was in second place, on track for a $100,000 payday.  But without Rahm on Sunday, joepesci11 finished 12th and only won $3,000.

The point is, there are now a lot of moving parts to the story.  With the Tour accepting gambling, this is not the story you want.  Now in individual betting, Rahm started the week 10 to 1 odds.  Of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas, most of them decided that Rahm tickets would not be winners.  But most of the online betting companies starting with William Hill and DraftKings, FanDuel, and Bet MGM, will honor Rahm tickets as winners.

To summarize all of this, the PGA Tour has to make sure to protect gamblers, from who they are making a lot of money from.  Of course, they can’t force players to take the vaccine in a perfect world, but if a player doesn’t want the vaccine, his wishes should be honored.  At the same time, the PGA Tour has to make public situations in which players are under contact-tracing protocols and tell the public those players who haven’t been vaccinated so that each gambler could monitor the status.  We got an example of this when the PGA Tour on Wednesday said that Rory McIlory withdrew from the Pro-am due to a family problem.  With this news, bets on Mcilroy went way down because people were worried over his news that he could withdraw on Thursday.

The bottom line is just like it’s the players’ responsibility to protect the field while on the course. The PGA Tour has to protect gamblers who aren’t privy to information that could hurt them if a player is forced to withdraw.

One thing that has happened.  A lot more players that haven’t been vaccinated are now saying that getting their first shot because of what happened to Rahm.  Yes it’s hard to fathom that if he would have gotten the shot last month he could be $1.65 million dollars richer, a very costly mistake that other players don’t want to do

Things you need to know about Palmetto Championship at Congaree and the Congaree Golf Club

This is the first and probably last Palmetto Championship at Congaree.  It was put together as a stop-gap for the RBC Canadian Open not being played.  But the Tour assures that the Canadian Open will be back, so this tournament will disappear after it’s played.

We are hearing more from players who turned up to play Congaree on Monday.  Kevin Kisner was one and he told Bob Spear of The Stats that there isn’t anything like Congaree on the PGA Tour.  PGA Tour player Mark Anderson said the course reminded him of playing in Australia.

Now the course is very long, but the fairways are hard so there will be a lot of runs.  Many of the players were opening that PGA Tour officials would set up the course to make the 4th and 15th holes drivable.

On the whole, all of the news is positive on this course and will probably be that way during the tournament.

Course information:

Congaree Golf Club

• Ridgeland, South Carolina
• 7,655 yards     Par 36-35–71
• This is a rare course that doesn’t have a slope rating or course rating.  Have to remember that there is really only one member/owner.  But there is no argument, the course has a lot of character like Pine Valley, Pinehurst, or Royal Melbourne.  This could be one of the first courses on the PGA Tour that doesn’t have rough.  Instead, it has bunkers, water, and native areas.  So those players that come here are tickled pink that the course has no rough.  But what the course does have do help bring out the best of those playing it.
• One of the things players have to get used to is bumping shots into the greens.  That is the way Fazio built it, with that in mind.
• There are several other little items that we are used to my you won’t find at Congaree.  There are no cart paths, as the course is meant to be walked.  There are also no tees.  While the scorecard has tees measured off, each group is free to tee up where they would like.  There’s also no slope rating here.
• If you miss a green expect the ball to roll into a collection area.  From there you will be presented with the way you try and get it up and down.  Some will fly it to the pin while others will bump and run it up.  You fly it to the pin your bound to not get it right and have more problems.  So most of the time you will see a player bump it onto the green and close to the hole.
• So is the course hard enough so that a marquee player has the advantage of winning?
• I say no, frankly I can’t see a Dustin Johnson or a Brooks Koepka winning this week.  The winner will be the player who finds all of these special areas to be important and they are able to produce the shot to get it up and down.  Again the old saying the hottest golfer as of today will make this a very hard event to pick.  So keep a very open mind while making your picks, it will be hard for success this week.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Congaree Golf Club.

Back in March, when it was announced that the country of Canada couldn’t accommodate the RBC Canadian Open, the PGA Tour went into action to find a replacement course. Last year when the John Deere couldn’t be played, the tour added another tournament at Muirfield Village, the week before the Memorial. Back in early January, when it became know that the PGA Tour couldn’t be played in Mexico, they found a great course just outside of Sarasota and Bradenton, Florida and the WGC-Workday Championship at the Concession turned into a great event. Both events were placed in towns that had the infrastructure to handle a PGA Tour event.
But when the PGA Tour announced the Palmetto Championship at Congaree, the course was not in a big city, a matter of fact, Congaree Golf Club is in rural South Carolina. The course is “officially” located in Ridgeland, South Carolina. The town is in Jasper and Beaufort Counties, with a population of 4,036. But in reality, the course is about 9 miles up the Grays Highway just outside the unincorporated community of Gillisonville, South Carolina, which was nearly obliterated by order of Major General William Tecumseh Sherman during the Civil War. In reality, the course is 50 miles north of Savannah and 40 miles north of Hilton Head.
Still, the course is one of the best in the world. It is the vision of its two owners, in which one is dead. Dan Friedkin and the late Bob McNair had a philanthropy image of the course on a natural surrounding to help complement the low country landscape. They brought in renowned architect Tom Fazio who transported gigantic oak trees and created hills, ridges, and lakes that appear like they’ve been there for hundreds of years, and routed a superb design around those features. Both Friedkin and McNair paid the price tag that was reported at least $45 million for the course.
Friedkin, as owner, is technically the club’s only member. Congaree’s mission is to help financially strapped golfers get a college education. The club runs weeklong golf academies in which youngsters worldwide are also given intensive training that involves life-skills lessons and sessions with an athletic counselor who matches students with colleges. Friedkin has been able to talk to Mark O’Meara, Tom Watson, Morgan Pressel, and business leaders as Jim Crane, Jim Pallotta, and Dermot Desmond to get involved as ambassadors.
When the coursed opened in 2017, it was voted as Golf Digest’s “best new private course.” The course has the look and feel of two courses, the first Shadow Creek, the course Fazio built 30 years ago in Las Vegas. The other course it looks like is Pine Valley in New Jersey, one of the most famous courses in the world in which the fairways are like ribbons of grass placed in between natural wasteland of sand and sagebrush. One other course that people say Congaree reminds them of is Augusta National. While Augusta has Magnolia Lane leading to its clubhouse, Congaree has two roads flanked by live oaks, not magnolias, and they weren’t transplanted. They’ve been “Oak Lanes” since the plantation started sometime before the Civil War. Other than Friedkin, the club has “ambassadors” who, just like Augusta, are invited to join Congaree. They pay annual dues of $12,000 and make considerable contributions to the Congaree foundation.
This is going to be a special treat for players. Not many of those in the field have any prior knowledge of the course and how hard it will play. The course will be at 7,655 yards and to a par of 71. So the course is long, but this time of year, the course is very firm, which means the ball will go a long way. So could this be a bombers course? In looking at pictures, you can probably tell that the course is pretty tight, and if you miss the fairway, you’re on sand or brush or in the trees. There are six lakes on the course that will come into play on 10 holes. The greens are 6,150 square feet and had some undulation in them, so hitting greens will be essential. On top of looking like Shadow Creek, Pine Valley, and Augusta, course architect Fazio and the two owners envisioned a curse that plays firm and fast, similar to the sandbelt courses in Australia.

Since we have no data to base our conclusions for our four categories, we will take an educated guess on which stats will be needed to succeed this week at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. The First will be Accuracy off the tee. Remember a year ago when they held an exhibition match with Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady at the Medalist Golf Club? That course was challenging because they tunneled 18 holes through dense forest, and there was no bail-out. You either hit it in the fairway or die in the forest of problems off the tee. The same with Congaree, there is no bail-out on any hole, so driving accuracy will be necessary. In a way, the course is a lot like Concession Golf Club, which played the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession in March. That course too, was very tight off the tee and led to a lot of high numbers. So our first category is Total Driving. The course is not only an excellent driving course but demands great shotmaking to the greens as it takes precious iron play. The course has the same values as Augusta National or Concession Golf Club, in which you have to put the shot on the green but in the correct quadrant, so our second category is Greens in Regulation.

Of course, the greens have lots of mounds and changes in elevation and will be challenging but won’t break any players because of them being impossible. All 18 greens are well guarded, mistakes will be made, and that puts many skills in getting it up and down from just off the greens. So our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. This combination of all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens, which have sand and waste areas all around them.
Our last category is Strokes Gained Putting. Remember how tricky the greens are, I have a feeling that a lot of pros will go crazy with their severe nature of them. So Strokes Gained Putting is an excellent way in determining how a player does overall on the greens, and since putting will be a key to winning at Congaree, I don’t see any stat better to end this stat look with.

*Total Driving: It adds up the Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy rank to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items essential for the week.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from not only the short grass but from the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is an excellent way in determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt, and coming up with a stroke figure.

The 108 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to the 108 stats from 2021

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,400
• Brooks Koepka – $11,100
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,400
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,200
• Harris English – $9,900
• Sungjae Im – $9,700
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,500
• Ian Poulter – $9.200
• Patton Kizzire – $9,100
• Garrick Higgo – $9,000

Before we start this week’s Palmetto Championship at Congaree it’s important to note that we have no information on past results so we don’t know who likes and plays the course well.  This is also a week that has not many marquee players, so all of the values of players are greatly skewed.  Frankly of the ten players listed above, I am only comfortable with two, Tyrrell Hatton and Sungjae Im.  Of the others, I can tolerate Brooks Koepka and Garrick Higgo so it’s best to find those best picks in the 8,000 price range.  One thing that you should think of, instead of looking for winners, in a full field of 156 players if you pick-six that make the cut you will win money.

Our first player Dustin Johnson at $11,400 is a hard one to pick.  He has played terribly, he may be injured, we just don’t know anything.  Of course, I felt that way about him going into the Travelers and look what happened, he won.  Still think it’s best with him so much money to take a pass on him.  Brooks Koepka at $11,100 is also a lot of money for a guy that hasn’t played much.  Yes, he was runner-up in his last start at the PGA Championship, but he putted terribly and we just don’t know if he will have the same tee to green game.  I am taking a pass on him but I can understand if you want him on your team, his stats for the year says he is perfect for this course.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,400 is a lot of money for a guy that has seriously underperformed this year.  Still, he is high on our key stat list and did finish T-4th at the Heritage and T-11th at Concession, a course similar to Congaree.  Now I like Tyrrell Hatton at $10,400 despite him not having as high of stats as Koepka and Fitzpatrick.  Think that Hatton has the game to do well at Congaree, his one weakness is around the greens.  Still, I like him.  Harris English at $9,900 has the stats to do well and him being from the south should play this course well.  He hasn’t played well since winning in Maui back in January but maybe this week will be his week, but I doubt it.  Sungjae Im at $9,700 is someone to watch, he plays well on hard courses with Bermuda, just look at his Florida swing.  Just looking at his stats is a giveaway that this course could be perfect for his game.  All I can say about Tommy Fleetwood at $9,500 is that I have given up on him for a bit, just don’t think he will be a factor and is too much money.  Hard to see how they priced Ian Poulter at $9.200 so high?  He is not only short off the tee and not very straight, but also doesn’t hit many greens.  Yes, he is a great putter and can scramble, but that isn’t going to be enough for him.  Patton Kizzire at $9,100 I can see, he finished T-3rd at the Byron Nelson and Charles Schwab but then missed the cut at the Memorial.  He has played a bit on this course which should help him.  Garrick Higgo at $9,000 is interesting because he has won twice in the last two months. But it was on the European Tour with weak fields and on very easy courses.  Once he got onto a tough course he was T-64th at the PGA Championship.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Keith Mitchell at $8,800 is a good pick considering he plays well on firm courses with Bermuda.  Was T-3rd at the Wells Fargo, his rounds have been good of late.  Lucas Glover at $8,600 is one to think about. He has played a lot at Congaree and is great from tee to green.  Again Glover is great from tee to green and around the greens. But with the flatstick he is painful to watch.  Harold Varner III at $8,500 is a solid pick, all of his stats are good for the course, he has knocked on the door at several events and it’s only a matter of time before he wins.  Brandt Snedeker at $8,400 has been weak this year with the driver, but he is great around the greens and with the putter so we should think of him.  Scott Stallings at $8,000 is worth looking at him, I like the way he has played well in his last five starts.  Luke List at $7,900 is like picking Lucas Glover, List hits the ball well but is a terrible putter which is his Achilles heel.  Now the one thing that swayed him as a pick is that he has held the course record at Congaree.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree

I like James Hahn at $7,200, he is great with the driver and hitting the greens.  The rest of his game isn’t bad, he was 56th in Strokes Gained putting. Now the bad news about Hahn, he hasn’t played 72 holes since the Players, his next seven starts have missed the cut in six of them and WD from the Honda.  Also at $7,200 is Jason Dufner whose game has gotten better.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree:

The key stat for the winner:

Lots of patient in learning the course, also will take a lot of patients in which birdies are rare and pars are great.  This doesn’t happen much on the PGA Tour.

Another key:

The ability to hit it long and straight could be the way to winning this event.

The greens are very demanding and with them being hard (it hasn’t rained in two weeks) they will bounce off the greens and give players challenging pitches in which they either have to bump and run them to the pin or fly it to the pin

Last we have to talk about the weather.  The course hasn’t seen any rain in two weeks now so it’s going to be hard and firm.  But looking at the weather forecast, starting on Wednesday it’s supposed to rain and there are scattered thunderstorms every day of the tournament.  So that could play a part in making the course easier not only in the fairways, but shots to the green will hold better.

Who to watch for at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree

Best bets:

Sungjae Im – Season has been a disappointment, of late has struggled since the Masters, still he was T-17th at the PGA Championship.  Average off the tee (T-93rd driving distance) but very accurate (14th Driving Accuracy) spells a good combination with his 39th in Greens in Regulation.

Keith Mitchell – Plays his best in hot, steamy conditions.  His best finishes are on courses that have bermuda all around and he is good on long courses, all of these conditions will be at Congaree this week.  Just a couple weeks back was T-3rd at Wells Fargo.

Kevin Kisner – Was born and raised in South Carolina.  He loves playing in front of those from South Carolina, almost won the RSM Classic which is right below South Carolina in Georgia.  Now Kisner loves playing in front of those from South Carolina and would love some redemption since he missed the cut at Hilton Head and the PGA Championship.  Yes has played terrible of last since the Players have only made two cuts in eight starts, but he has played a lot at Congaree and could unravel the mysteries of this course.

Best of the rest:

Brooks Koepka – Course is right up the alley for Koepka.  Glad to see him playing means that he is doing better. Him playing this week is a great sign, showing he has the energy to do well.

Patton Kizzire – Good in the south and on courses with Bermuda.  Yes he missed the cut at the Memorial, but was T-3rd at Colonial and T-3rd at Byron Nelson.

Tyrrell Hatton – Been an up and down year for him, this is a course that his game will help him on since he hits for good distance (T-87th in driving distance all measured) and keeps it in the fairway (53rd fairway accuracy). Like that he is T-12th in Proximity to hole, can scramble (58th) an is T-51st in Strokes Gained putting.  Was T-3rd at Shadow Creek last year and won on a course with a lot of sand, Abu Dhabi.  His game has been cold of late, but not bad this is the type of guy who can win this week.

Garrick Higgo – Is interesting because he has won twice in the last two months. But it was on the European Tour with weak fields and on very easy courses.  Onces he got onto a tough course he was T-64th at the PGA Championship.

Lucas Glover – He is one to think about. He has played a lot at Congaree and is great from tee to green.  Again Glover is great from tee to green and around the greens. But with the flatstick he is painful to watch.

Solid Contenders

Matt Fitzpatrick – Looking to bounce back, was T-4th down the road at Heritage and T-12th at CJ Cup at Shadow Creek, I like that he was T-11th at WGC-Concession could spell this could be his week. Short off the tee (T-160th Driving Distance) but very accurate off the tee (15th Driving Accuracy) rounds things up but at the end of the day he lives by his putter (19th SG Putting).

Dustin Johnson – We will see if he is ready to play good golf again, important event in his home state. We know he hasn’t played well in months, but his time off may of helped him, so this is a good start. The problem will be if he plays well which he could, you don’t want to win this week and spend all of the bullets that are meant for Torrey Pines.

Harris English – Still looking to regain his form that brought him a win at Pebble Beach.  Was 10th at CJ Cup at Shadow Creek. Average off the tee (92nd Driving Distance) and (51st in Driving Accuracy) along with a hot putter (36th in SG Putting) all spells that we have to watch him.

Brandt Snedeker – Has been weak this year with the driver, but he is great around the greens and with the putter so we should think of him.

Long Shots

Luke List – Despite being born in Seattle he is a southern boy through and through.  Has played a lot at Congaree, he has the curse record. His best finish of the year was T-6th at Wells Fargo. Hits it long (7th, driving distance), hits greens (48th Greens in regulation) but his putting is weak (199th in SG Putting).  If he can overcome that could be good.

Ian Poulter – Now he doesn’t have the length, but does have the game and loves to win these type of events.  He was T-3rd in his last start at the Charles Schwab but like that he was T-12th at the CJ Cup, played at Shadow Creek that has a lot of characteristics that line up with Congaree Golf Club.

Scott Stallings – Statistically is a middle of the run type of guy, is 81st in driving distance and 129th in Driving accuracy all in the middle of the pack. 4th in scrambling and 105th in Strokes Gained putting. Was T-3rd a few weeks ago at the Byron Nelson, he has won three times when he least expected to do so, maybe this week is his week to do it Again