BlogAbu Dhabi Preview and Picks

The Buzz

A critical next three weeks for the European Tour and World Golf on the desert swing. With the PGA Tour beefing up the Florida swing with the Players Championship now played to March, it seems that the marquee players will be in the United States for most of March. But the big thing that is happening in two weeks is Saudi International. It started on the European Tour, but that Tour dropped it for various reasons. With all of the prominent Saudi money, it has been resurrected as the first of the new tour, which has Greg Norman aboard. The event is now part of the Asian Tour, so it becomes more tricky for PGA Tour and European Tour officials not to allow players to participate. A lot will be said in the coming weeks, but first, we have the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

A new home for the championship

After 15 years at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, the event moves to the Yas Links Abu Dhabi. The Yas Island is Abu Dhabi’s premier leisure, retail, and entertainment hub, leading the way in supporting the emirate’s Economic Vision 2030. The new venue offers a unique blend of stunning views, first-class hospitality, and a diverse range of award-winning leisure and entertainment attractions, enhancing the experience for fans, whether they attend in person or watch from around the world.

The course was built by Kyle Phillips and has gotten a lot of great press. As the name suggests, the new venue has a links feel to it and, with the wind in the weather forecast, it looks set to provide a fascinating test. The Abu Dhabi course was more of a traditional course, while Yas Links will be more of a link feel, with holes that look like they’re being played in Scotland.

The field is good with Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy headlining. Also playing is Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, and Lee Westwood. A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Course Information

• Yas Links Golf Club
• Abu Dhabi, UAE
• Par  36-36-72  Yardage 7,425

Yas Links is situated on the popular Yas Island. Designed by Kyle Phillips, this links-style course brings a fusion of desert landscapes and tough playing conditions with the aim to test players to the maximum. With this being the inaugural event, it will be an interesting watch to see how the layout and the challenge fares against golf’s elite.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $10,900
• Collin Morikawa – $10,800
• Viktor Hovland – $10,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,200
• Shane Lowry – $9,900
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,800
• Robert Macintyre – $9,600
• Thomas Pieters – $9,500
• Adam Scott – $9,300
• Erik Van Rooyen – $9,200
• Min Woo Lee – $9,100
• Bernd Wiesberger – $9,000

So it’s a brand new year and a different golf course. Yas Links is different, the course has more links feel and look. The big question is, will the marquee players do well and figure out the course, or will it be some new player who has a great week.

Rory McIlroy, at $10,900, is always one of the favorites. He has won on links courses. 2022 is very important for McIlroy, he wants to regain some of the luster that hasn’t been around in years, so he spent a lot of time in the break realizing what he needs to do. He is an easy guy to pick, but he is very expensive again. I have more faith in Collin Morikawa at $10,800, he is playing well, showing his mite by winning in Dubai and the Race to Dubai. He was doing great and should have won the Hero World Challenge, only to wilt with a final round 76 to finish T-5th. On a challenging Kapalua course, Morikawa finished T-5th, so he is by favorite. If I am going to spend the money, I will spend it with Morikawa. That doesn’t mean that Viktor Hovland is a wrong choice at $10,500. He won at Mayakoba and the Hero, and right when we thought he was ready to break out, he floundered at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, finishing T-30th. Still, he is a good pick this week. If a player is upset about the move away from Abu Dhabi Golf Club, it has to be Tommy Fleetwood, who is at $10,200. He won twice and was in the top-ten four times so the question will be, can he play as well on the new course as he played on the old course. I say take a pass on Fleetwood, he just hasn’t been very sharp. Shane Lowry at $9,900 is a good choice, he won the Open Championship on a links course, but the big question can he do the same on a links course in the United Arab Emirates? I say don’t count him out. Tyrrell Hatton, at $9,800, is the defending champion, and I think he can do well this week on this course. Robert Macintyre at $9,600 is a good choice on this course, he hasn’t played since finishing T-4th in the season-ending DP World and worked hard on his game. Thomas Pieters at $9,500, had limited success in this event five years ago. He too hasn’t played since November in the DP World, I think he will be okay this week. Adam Scott, at $9,300, has only played in Abu Dhabi once finishing T-23rd in 2008. Can he rekindle his old play, maybe. I still am going to pass on him. Erik Van Rooyen is priced high at $9,200 even though he won last July at the Barracuda and has played ok since. The problem I have with him is the price is too high. Min Woo Lee at $9,100 is another price too high, and should pass on him. Bernd Wiesberger at $9,000 is priced well for his record, he has done ok in past Abu Dhabi’s, I think he will do well this week.

Here are those players with costs between $7,500 and $8,900 that are worth the price:

This is the portion of players you have to master; I feel the winner will come in this group. Players like Sam Horsfield at $8,900 could do well. He ended his season with a T-9th at the DP World Dubai. Matthias Schwab at $8,500, is a player to watch, was T-25th at Abu Dhabi last year, was T-9th the next week in Dubai. His season strong was T-12th at the BMW Championship and T-15th at Andalucia Masters. Nicolai Hojgaard at $8,200 is a great choice, he ended his year T-2nd at the Portugal Masters and T-4th at the DP World Championship, Dubai. Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $7,800 is someone worth watching, he won in the fall, and his game is coming around. He played well on the other course, I think he is a person to watch. Andy Sullivan, at $7,700, is also a player to watch, he ended his year T-4th at the AVIV Dubai Championship and has done well in Abu Dhabi in past years. Victor Perez at $7,700 is also a player to watch, his last half of the year wasn’t good, and he will be looking to regain his form. Also, have to watch Danny Willett, priced at $7,600. He is always a player that can be hit and miss, but he has won in the desert and on links courses, so he has to be watched.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

Want a cheap player with a major winner and played great in 2021? You can’t go wrong with Charl Schwartzel, priced at $7,300. That is an excellent price for a player who could win. Richard Bland at $7,300 is also an excellent price for a player who did great in 2021. Look for his excellent play to carry over to this week. Also, watch Hao-Tong Li at $7,200. Yes played terribly on the European Tour in 2021, but he finished T-12th at the Sony last week and was in the running the final day. George Coetzee, at $7,000, is always by ace in the hole, he always seems to make cuts and get lots of points. The same with Masahiro Kawamura, priced at $7,000, he makes cuts and does well in DraftKings points. Also hard to believe you can get Jason Scrivener at only $6,900. He was runner-up in this event last year and had a great 2021. Yes, he is a great bargain.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Abu Dhabi G.C.:

The key stat for the winner:

• There are no key stats since they are playing on a new course. Everything is up in the air as we see what is good, challenging, and straightforward.
• A new course gives that newcomer a good chance, so don’t be surprised to see a non-favorite do well.
• Guess what the weather is going to be? Easy, it’s going to be perfect with temperatures in the high 70s and no rain. In the past, the wind has been a problem, it will present a problem for players as each day it will blow between 15 and 25 mph.
• One last thing, it’s easy to say that a Rory McIlroy or a Collin Morikawa could win. Both players are great drivers and will give them a significant advantage as both can overpower the course. But a case in point, yes, McIlroy and Morikawa are the stars of the game as both won six majors, but you never know from week to week who could be on top.  But when you think about how easy it will be for McIlroy or Morikawa to win, remember that guys like Lee Westwood, Gary Stal, Pablo Larrazabal, and Robert Rock were not considered “favorites” in the years they won, so the point is don’t be surprised if the winner isn’t a marquee name.  Maybe a Viktor Hovland, Bernd Wiesberger or even a Nicolai Hojgaard will surprise a few folks.