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BlogTour Championship Preview and Picks

Tour Championship

September 11 – 14, 2014

East Lake G.C.

Atlanta, Ga.

Par: 70 / Yardage:

Purse: $8 million

with $1,440,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Henrik Stenson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 26 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with nine of top-ten players in the field (#10 Phil Mickelson didn’t make it): #1 Rory McIlroy, #2 Adam Scott, #3 Sergio Garcia, #4 Henrik Stenson, #5 Justin Rose, #6 Bubba Watson  #7 Jim Furyk, #8 Jason Day and #9 Matt Kuchar.  From 11 to 25 there are 9 of the 15 with #11 Rickie Fowler, #12 Martin Kaymer, #13 Jordan Spieth,  #15 Zach Johnson, #18 Jimmy Walker, #19 Hideki Matsuyama, #20 Hunter Mahan, #23 Billy Horschel and #24 Chris Kirk. Between 26 and 50 there are 8 of the 25, they are   #28 Patrick Reed, #31 Bill Haas, #33 Webb Simpson, #36 Kevin Na, #44 Ryan Palmer, #46 Brendon Todd, #49 Gary Woodland and #50 John Senden.

Last year there was also players from the top-50 so both years had the same.

The field includes all 29 of the top-30 from the FedEx Cup rankings except for #30 Dustin Johnson.

The field includes 21 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list (Missing is #10 Dustin Johnson, #20 Ryan Moore, #23 Harris English and #24 Keegan Bradley).

The field includes three past champions: Bill Haas (2011), Jim Furyk (2010) and Adam Scott (2006).

The field includes a 18 players that have won 42 events on the PGA Tour this year: Jimmy Walker (Frys.com Open, Sony Open in Hawaii & AT&T Pebble), Webb Simpson (Shriners Hospitals); Chris Kirk (McGladrey Classic & Deutsche Bank); Zach Johnson (Hyundai T of C); Patrick Reed (Humana & Cadillac); Bubba Watson (Northern Trust & Masters); Jason Day (WGC-Accenture); Russell Henley (Honda); John Senden (Valspar Championship); Matt Kuchar (RBC Heritage); Martin Kaymer (Players & U.S. Open); Brendon Todd (Byron Nelson); Adam Scott (Colonial); Hideki Matsuyama (Memorial); Rory McIlroy (Open Championship, Bridgestone & PGA Championship); Geoff Ogilvy (Barracuda); Hunter Mahan (The Barclays) and Billy Horschel (BMW Championship).

 

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Tour Championship field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Tour Championship  field in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Tour Championship  field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Tour Championship

Player BMW Champ. European Masters Deutsche Bank Italian Open The Barclays Czech Masters Wyndham Champ. Made in Denmark PGA Champ. WGC Bridgestone Barracuda Champ. Canadian Open British Open
Rory McIlroy
(618 pts)
T8
(75)
DNP
 
T5
(105)
DNP
 
T22
(42)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(176)
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(88)
Rickie Fowler
(464.67 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP
 
T23
(40.5)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(120)
T8
(50)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
Jim Furyk
(450.5 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP
 
T23
(40.5)
DNP
 
8
(75)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(93.33)
T15
(35)
DNP
 
2
(33.33)
4
(53.33)
Billy Horschel
(328.33 pts)
Win
(198)
DNP
 
T2
(150)
DNP
 
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T47
(2)
DNP
 
T58
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
Adam Scott
(321.83 pts)
T8
(75)
DNP
 
T16
(51)
DNP
 
T15
(52.5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(46.67)
T8
(50)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(46.67)
Hunter Mahan
(315 pts)
T59
(0)
DNP
 
64
(0)
DNP
 
Win
(198)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(73.33)
T15
(35)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T32
(12)
Sergio Garcia
(306.67 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(20)
2
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
Bill Haas
(277.33 pts)
T16
(51)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
T15
(52.5)
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
DNP
 
T27
(30.67)
T41
(9)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T51
(0)
Jason Day
(266.67 pts)
WD
(-7.5)
DNP
 
T7
(82.5)
DNP
 
T2
(150)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(46.67)
WD
(-5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T58
(0)
Ryan Palmer
(264.33 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP
 
T16
(51)
DNP
 
T74
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(93.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T58
(0)
Geoff Ogilvy
(254.67 pts)
T36
(21)
DNP
 
T2
(150)
DNP
 
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(5.33)
DNP
 
Win
(88)
T34
(5.33)
DNP
 
Morgan Hoffmann
(240 pts)
3
(135)
DNP
 
T35
(22.5)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
T43
(2.33)
DNP
 
Chris Kirk
(235.33 pts)
T36
(21)
DNP
 
Win
(198)
DNP
 
T53
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T41
(9)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(20.67)
Bubba Watson
(217.83 pts)
2
(150)
DNP
 
T29
(31.5)
DNP
 
T30
(30)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T64
(0)
T37
(13)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
Jimmy Walker
(210.83 pts)
T20
(45)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(73.33)
T26
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(16)
Matt Kuchar
(207.17 pts)
T46
(6)
DNP
 
T29
(31.5)
DNP
 
T5
(105)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(38)
DNP
 
T4
(26.67)
T54
(0)
John Senden
(198.17 pts)
T23
(40.5)
DNP
 
T5
(105)
DNP
 
T22
(42)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T26
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T58
(0)
Justin Rose
(185.17 pts)
35
(22.5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T30
(30)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T24
(34.67)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T23
(18)
Cameron Tringale
(165.17 pts)
T31
(28.5)
DNP
 
T69
(0)
DNP
 
T2
(150)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DQ
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
Patrick Reed
(158.17 pts)
T53
(0)
DNP
 
T74
(0)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
T24
(17.33)
DNP
 
T58
(0)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
Gary Woodland
(152.5 pts)
T23
(40.5)
DNP
 
T29
(31.5)
DNP
 
T13
(55.5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T19
(31)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T39
(7.33)
Jordan Spieth
(145.5 pts)
T8
(75)
DNP
 
T29
(31.5)
DNP
 
T22
(42)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
49
(1)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T36
(9.33)
Russell Henley
(139 pts)
T59
(0)
DNP
 
T2
(150)
DNP
 
T61
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T41
(9)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
Hideki Matsuyama
(133.67 pts)
T20
(45)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T30
(30)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T35
(20)
T12
(38)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T39
(7.33)
Zach Johnson
(132.5 pts)
T43
(10.5)
DNP
 
T16
(51)
DNP
 
T22
(42)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T69
(0)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T47
(2)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Tour Championship

Player BMW Champ. European Masters Deutsche Bank Italian Open The Barclays Czech Masters Wyndham Champ. Made in Denmark PGA Champ. WGC Bridgestone Barracuda Champ. Canadian Open British Open
Brendon Todd
(24.33 pts)
T36
(21)
DNP
 
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T46
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
72
(0)
T45
(5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T39
(7.33)
Kevin Na
(72.17 pts)
T46
(6)
DNP
 
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T54
(0)
Webb Simpson
(98.17 pts)
T53
(0)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T5
(46.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T31
(19)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
Martin Kaymer
(105.17 pts)
T16
(51)
DNP
 
T7
(82.5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T56
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
70
(0)
Zach Johnson
(132.5 pts)
T43
(10.5)
DNP
 
T16
(51)
DNP
 
T22
(42)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T69
(0)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T47
(2)
Hideki Matsuyama
(133.67 pts)
T20
(45)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T30
(30)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T35
(20)
T12
(38)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T39
(7.33)
Russell Henley
(139 pts)
T59
(0)
DNP
 
T2
(150)
DNP
 
T61
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T41
(9)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
Jordan Spieth
(145.5 pts)
T8
(75)
DNP
 
T29
(31.5)
DNP
 
T22
(42)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
49
(1)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T36
(9.33)
Gary Woodland
(152.5 pts)
T23
(40.5)
DNP
 
T29
(31.5)
DNP
 
T13
(55.5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
T19
(31)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T39
(7.33)
Patrick Reed
(158.17 pts)
T53
(0)
DNP
 
T74
(0)
DNP
 
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
T24
(17.33)
DNP
 
T58
(0)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

A very interesting mix in the first three playoff events this year as no one player has dominated.  Six players have two top-tens (Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Jim Furyk, Billy Horschel, Jason Day and Morgan Hoffman with only one (Billy Horschel) having two top-3s.

Now for the three winners, Barclays champion Hunter Mahan followed that up with a 64th at the Deutsche Bank, followed by a T59th at the BMW.  Deutsche Bank winner Chris Kirk started the playoffs with a T-36th at the Barclays and then T-53rd at the BMW.  For BMW champion Billy Horschel, he missed the cut at Barclays, then finished T-2nd at the Deutsche Bank.  So for this FedEx Cup nobody has made a run.

But there are storm clouds brewing as the main focus is the fatigue of a lot of the players.  Frankly I can’t feel sorry for a bunch of guys playing a game who make millions of dollars and complaining.  Lot’s of regular folks like you and I are working hard to stay out from the poor farm, so I laugh when I here that another player needs time off.

On the other end, playing golf at this level does require a lot of stress.  Not playing well, but keeping your mental fitness to handle everything.  30 years ago it was the norm seeing players going five, six and up to ten straight weeks on tour.  Now it’s a stretch to see anyone playing three in a row, they just need that down time.  With the advent of the FedEx cup playoffs and the wrap-around schedule, things have changed.  Between July 14th and September 28th there are 11 weeks and in that span is two majors, a WGC event, four playoff events and the Ryder Cup.  That’s 8 big events in 11 weeks that is too much.  In a way I can understand the mental fatigue, yes they are playing a game and making millions, but still a lot of things are happening and I buy into this.

There are a lot of causes for this, but the FedEx Cup is the big cause of this.

A couple of weeks ago I suggestion a new format for the FedEx Cup playoffs, in which you would have between two or three of the playoffs in ten-week cycles with only two of them coming at the end of the year. In order of doing this, the Tour has to redo the schedule, to make sure golf is played in October and November, then picks up again in mid-January and end by Labor day.  In order to do this, you need to lose at least two events between January and Labor Day.  Since the tour plays twice in Asia in November why not move the two Hawaiian events to that period.  It’s not like they get marquee names now. The Hyundai Tournament of Champions has a tough time getting the year’s winners to come, so move it into November.  Who knows, maybe with the tour in Asia some will make it a four week Hawaiian/Asian swing.  One last thing, it’s not like they have a lucrative TV arraignment, Golf Channel would do those two events in November instead of January and you start the Tour right after the divisional NFL playoffs.

Would this help, who knows.  But right now the schedule is a mess, especially toward the last quarter of the season.

Ryder Cup

Oh for all of you that are interested in the history of the Ryder Cup, GOLFstats has put together the only database in being able to get information on every player that has participated in the matches and every result.  Not only is ours the only database on the Web, you can also sort each player to see how he has done in each format, with his partners and how he has fared among the players he has been in matches which.

For more try our our Ryder Cup database here:

Tournament information:

This is the 28th Tour Championship. Originally founded as the Nabisco Championship, it switched to the Tour Championship in 1991. In 2001, Coca-Cola became a title sponsor for the event, which still bears its name.

Through 2006, the top 30 players on the money list up to the Tour Championship qualified for the event. With a limited field, the event doesn’t have a cut.  2007 was the first year in which the top-30 of the FedEx Cup point list got in as it became the last leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Since 2004, the Tour Championship has been held at East Lake Golf Club outside of  Atlanta, Ga. Back then it was in November but with the advent of the new FedEx Cup, the Tour Championship was moved to mid-September. The event now is the final leg of the “Chase for the FedEx Cup.”   For most of the marquee players, this is the last PGA Tour event of the year as most of the top players won’t play in any of the seven fall events that are coming up.

This year just like the year before the scheme for the FedEx Cup hasn’t changed. After the BMW, points were redone thus giving the top-five leaders a chance at winning the FedEx Cup if they win the Tour Championship.  So even though Chris Kirk is the leader, if either Billy Horschel, Bubba Watson, Rory McIlroy or Hunter Mahan were to win this week, they would displace Kirk and win the FedEx Cup.

Mathematically every player has a chance at winning the FedEx Cup, but for those higher than tenth they have a very slim chance.  Now that is easy to say but in 2010 Jim Furyk came to East Lake 11th in the rankings, and his victory at East Lake worked out into a win in the FedEx Cup. More drastic in 2011 Bill Haas was 25th in the rankings, but his victory and some poor play by the leaders in the rankings rose Haas into winning the series.  In 2012 Brandt Snedeker was 5th and won, the same for Henrik Stenson so the last four winners of the Tour Championship also won the FedEx Cup playoffs.

The PGA Tour has put together a great “cheat sheet” in helping you figure out the scenarios to win of all the players.

Course information:

East Lake was designed by Tom Bendelow around 1905 and in 1913 Donald Ross completely reworked the course and even though the layout is the same today, it was altered by George Cobb before the 1963 Ryder Cup matches.

East Lake has had a rather tumultuous existence. From its inception until the early 1960s, East Lake was one of the top courses in the entire country. It was Bobby Jones’s home golf course. The Ryder Cup was held at East Lake in 1963. However, problems began to arise at the Atlanta country club as the area got seedy, and higher income people began emigrating to the suburbs, leaving only lower-income households to inhabit the area surrounding the once storied Country Club. In the ’60s, the membership decided to abandon the site and move to what is presently Atlanta Athletic Club, with East Lake becoming a public course.

For the next 30 years, the golf course, along with the community itself, floundered, as the area became the most dangerous part of Atlanta. Police often referred to the area in the 70s & 80s surrounding East Lake as “Little Vietnam.”

In 1993, Tom Cousins, an esteemed real-estate developer and East Lake resident, joined with a charitable foundation in an effort to restore the East Lake Golf Club and the surrounding community to its previously leviathan stature. The two-phase plan included restoration on all housing and an overhaul of the dilapidated golf course. Rees Jones was hired to do the restoration in 1994.

Jones revamped the grass, changed many tees, and completely changed the landscaping. Unfortunately, when Jones did all of the work, it wasn’t thought that the event would be played in September, weeks after the hot summer season.  Everyone was caught by surprise in 2007 when the greens were stressed by a combination of drought and 28 days in August of heat over 90 degrees.  With these conditions, there was not enough time for the bentgrass greens to adequately recover from Atlanta’s hottest summer on record in the midst of a drought. And it was determined that in the best interest that the Crenshaw creep bent grass would be replaced with Bermudagrass.  In making the changes to the greens, Jones also changed some of the contours of the greens and created some roll-off areas on greens.

In addition, the green on No. 7 was changed and pushed back 43 yards, extending the par-4 hole to 394 yards. The fairway and green on No. 17 were repositioned left, closer to East Lake’s shoreline, and new tees were added on No. 13, 15 and 16. New fairways bunkers were added on the left side of No. 3, 7 and 16, and to the right side of No. 15. Bunkers were reconfigured on the green at No. 16 and expanded on the right side of the green on No. 14, as well as the left side of No. 4 green. New hole locations were created on various greens and low-cut, roll-off areas were installed off of greens on No. 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 and 17.

Now the course was in great shape before the weekend, the rough was high and the fairways and greens were hard and fast.

Today, the course plays as a 7,307 yard, par 70. It features Meyer Zoysia grass on both the tees and fairways while the rough is 419 Bermuda Grass.  The greens are also Bermudagrass, thus it can tolerate the hot days of August and be in great shape for this week.

The signature hole at East Lake is the Par 3, 6th. The hole plays at around 209 yards, but the downhill shot eliminates some of the distance. The tee was expanded and if officials want, they can stretch the hole to 225 yards.  The challenge of the hole is provided by the green itself. Golfers must attack a peninsula green with water left, right and in front of the green, as well as part of the backside. Adding to the difficulty, is a small bunker on the front left and the green, effectively making this an island green.  One other change, the tee at 17 was expanded, and the hole can play to 470 yards even though the “official” yardage on the hole is 455.

Last year the course played to a 69.383 average, three-quarters of a shot under par.  It was the 30th hardest course.  Now don’t let this mislead you, East Lake is tough.  In 2012, the course played a shot harder at 70.417

Here are some of the secrets to playing well at East Lake:

Key stat for the winner:

  • As was proven in past Tour Championships played at East Lake it favors those that hit lots of greens.  Just look at the 11 winners of previous Tour Championships at East Lake. Hal Sutton in 1998 was 1st while in 2000 Phil Mickelson was T4th in greens hit, Vijay Singh was T8th in 2002, Retief Goosen was first in 2004 and Bart Bryant first in 2005, Adam Scott was T6th in 2006 while in 2007 Tiger Woods led, in 2008 Camilo Villegas was T3rd while in 2009 Phil Mickelson was T8th.  in 2010 Jim Furyk led the greens hit, but Bill Haas slacked off to T-11th in ’11, Brandt Snedeker was T-7th in 2012. But last year Henrik Stenson proved the importance of hitting greens as he led that stat. So we can see that hitting greens are important because if you miss a green at East Lake it will be very difficult to get up and down for par.
  • Another key is holding the lead going into the final round.  Since 1987, the player who either led or had a share of the lead through 54 holes has gone on to win 17 out of 27 times – Tom Watson (1987), Curtis Strange (’88), Jodie Mudd (’90), Craig Stadler (’91), Paul Azinger (’92), Billy Mayfair (’95), Tom Lehman (’96), David Duval (’97), Tiger Woods (’99), Vijay Singh (2002), Chad Campbell in 2003, Bart Bryant in 2005, Adam Scott in 2006, Tiger Woods in 2007, Jim Furyk in 2010, Brandt Snedeker in 2012 and Henrik Stenson last year.  So check it out at GolfStats.Com.
  • Experience and having a good year especially coming into the event is also a factor. Just look at the winners the last 11 years.  Henrik Stenson last year, Brandt Snedker in 2012, Jim Furyk in 2010, Phil Mickelson the year before, Tiger Woods in 2007, Adam Scott the year before that.  Bart Bryant in 2005 and Retief Goosen in 2004 were examples of this. Scott finished either 2nd or 3rd six times going into the event, Bryant had won the Memorial early in the year while Goosen won the U.S. Open and then capped off with the Tour Championship.  All of them won capping off great years so I really feel that this year’s victor will be one of the multiple winners like Rory McIlroy, Chris Kirk or even Patrick Reed.  In talking about experience it should be pointed out that nine players (Russell Henley, Morgan Hoffman, Martin Kaymer, Chris Kirk, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, Brendon Todd, Cameron Tringale and Jimmy Walker) have never competed before at East Lake, again giving the advantage to those that know East Lake.
  • One last thing to look for. Yes, the course is demanding, but as it goes into the year 14th overall and the 11 year in a row as the host course, the pros are starting to learn it better and shoot lower scores.  Yes, it’s going to take four rounds in the 60s to win, but other than Bart Bryant’s brilliant 17 under par performance in 2005 and Tiger Woods 23 under performance in 2007 it’s rarely been taken apart.  Look for that trend to continue this year even with the course playing fast.
  • Lastly, the weather in Atlanta.  In the summer they always seem to get late afternoon thunderstorms everyday, that’s just the life of Atlanta in the summer.  This week is more of the same, long range forecast is for 40% chance of rain on Thursday, 50% on Friday, 80% on Saturday and 40% on Sunday.

 

 

 

Who to watch for at the Tour Championship

Best Bets:

Rory McIlroy

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T10

Has been the cream of the crop in 2014, know that he is tired and fatigue but look for him to put it together for one last charge.

Jim Furyk

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T14 7 Win T7 T6 T11 2 13 8 T18

He won in 2010 and can do it again. Wouldn’t it be funny if the one victory he had in all of the chances since 2010 would be his biggest win financially.

Adam Scott

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T14 19 T6 27 T26 Win T7 T21

Been hampered with poor putting, if he can turn that around could be an easy winner this week.

Best of the rest:

Justin Rose

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
6 2 T20 T15 T11

East Lake is his type of a course and I can see him shining this week.

Webb Simpson

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
4 T5 22

Good track record at East Lake, has been up and down all year, it’s time for him to be up.

Bubba Watson

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5 T23 T17 30

Played well last week, could roll over to good play this week.

Martin Kaymer

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Would really pull off a great moment winning this week and putting a kink in Rory winning Player of the Year easily.

Solid contenders

Bill Haas

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T24 Win

Pulled off the surprises of surprises in 2011, could do it again this year.

Jordan Spieth

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T2

Showed some life in his game at Cherry Hills, could be a good omen for this week.

Hunter Mahan

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T20 T8 2 T15 24 T17 T5

Has had some good rounds at East Lake.

Geoff Ogilvy

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T11 T13 T16 T17 T19

Wouldn’t it be something special to have a person who last month was not good enough to keep his tour card for 2015 win the FedEx Cup playoffs?

Long shots that could come through:

Ryan Palmer

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
28

Game has been good and he is on a high, could prove perfect for him.

Brendon Todd

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Be a great way to end his season.

Gary Woodland

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T22 T13

Has the length to overpower East Lake.

Perfect reasons for not winning:

Sergio Garcia

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T9 T15 2 4 T20 T15 28

Again he is playing great but just has this block of winning big events. Look for some great play along with some moments that he won’t be proud of. What will it add up to, probably another top-five but no win.

Billy Horschel

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T7

Think he will be overwhelmed after playing well the last two weeks.

Comments

  1. Thoughts on Jason Day? This is the last week of my Survivor Pool and I still haven’t used Day, Mahan, Matsuyama, Horschel or Haas. I’m assuming you like Mahan from this list. Thanks for your insights all year, it’s been great.

  2. I also like Haas.
    Problem with Day is health, we don’t know if he still have problems with the wrist and thumb.
    Also a lot of players are dog tired, that is why I am not jumping on the Horschel bandwagon I don’t think their is anything left in the tank. As for matsuyama, he has been terrible since his Memorial win, don’t know if it’s because of too much celebration or some sort of issue. He should be better and he hasn’t been for three months now.
    Really hard week to pick, the choices are so easy but the issues on the players make our choices hard to decipher.

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