BlogBMW Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

As I mentioned in the prelude piece, I can’t say how weird last week was with all the key players either missing the cut or struggling to get into the top-40. Give you an example of how bad it was, I am pretty good at picking six players in DraftKings, last week I had two teams in which five of six players missed the cut. Gosh, that tells me something.

I have to think that maybe fatigue is setting in for many of these players. 2020 has not been a regular season with the pandemic claiming three months of play between mid-March and mid-June. When play resumed in June, many players said that they were going to play a lot in the 13 weeks coming back because of the break. Little did they also put in that the week after the Tour Championship, it’s off to California for the start of the 2020/21 season at the Safeway Open and then back across the country for the U.S. Open. So that’s 15 straight weeks, and for many, they are playing most of them. Usually, this would be a tough grind, but with the new issues due to COVID-19, families aren’t allowed on the course, so many families that generally would be traveling aren’t. So that has to add to the total grind. A perfect example of what I am talking about is Webb Simpson, who late Tuesday afternoon withdrew, saying that he needed the week off to be rested for the Tour Championship. Again, I feel that many players are getting tired from all this play if that makes sense.

Have to wonder how many of the players are missing the regular routine, which includes fans. At the PGA Championship, we heard from several players how they missed having fans. They have to wonder if this all adds up.

With the 2020 season coming to an end, have to wonder how widespread the fall swing will be. Including the U.S. Open, Masters, and Hero World Challenge is supposed to be 14 events over 13 weeks. But in the middle the Asian swing has fallen apart, the CJ Cup which was supposed to be played in Korea has moved to Las Vegas and will be the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek. Supposedly the Zozo Championship, which was supposed to be the week after in Japan, is rumored to be moving to Los Angeles and Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, but no official word. As for the WGC-HSBC Champions in China, that event is not going to happen, but there is no official word yet. But you have to wonder how many players will want to continue the grind. Then you have the big question, we know the only way to get rid of COVID-19 is a vaccine, and that probably won’t happen till the end of the year. If that’s the case, the first couple of months in January and February will have to be played like it is now. How are tournaments and sponsors like the folks at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, which usually gets close to 200,000 people for the week, be told that there will be zero fans at TPC Scottsdale? What will be the reaction of the folks of the American Express Championship in the Palm Springs area and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am if told they couldn’t have not only fans but the pro-am field? Will players still want to attend the WGC-Mexico Championship in Mexico City if COVID-19 is still the norm? Or what about the Florida swing, yes I see today that the Miami Dolphins will have up to 13,000 fans for their first season football game but what if the Florida swing has to be played with no fans? Will the tournament and sponsors go for it? In this time of pain and suffering in which MLB baseball players have taken a 50% pay cut, NBA is taking a pay cut of 25% how is it right and justified for the PGA Tour to be giving out $70 million to 150 players as part of the bonus for the three-week playoff? These are all questions that will be raised as the season continues.

We still have to give the PGA Tour a lot of credit for a great job in getting things up and running safely over the last 13 weeks. But questions are starting to be asked, and I have a feeling that in the future just playing golf like we are doing now just won’t cut it, the sponsors and tournaments are going to want things to get back to normal with fans and some things being like they use to be.

Going into this week, the big news will be getting into the top-30 and playing at the Tour Championship. We talked about the importance of it, first of all, the money and the potential money to be earned next week at the Tour Championship. But the second big perk and to some the biggest perk is those playing in the Tour Championship gets into just about any event in 2021 including the five majors (there will be six majors next year, the Masters’ field for November is set). If you look at the list of those on the bubble, for most of them, playing at East Lake is very important.

• 27 – Adam Long
• 28 – Kevin Streelman
• 29 – Tony Finau
• 30 – Billy Horschel
• 31 – Joaquin Niemann
• 32 – Tyler Duncan
• 33 – Matthew Wolff
• 34 – Mark Hubbard
• 35 – Byeong Hun An
• 36 – Mackenzie Hughes

Tournament information:

The Western Open was initially founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, this will be the 117th edition of the event.

From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at a variety of locations, including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco, to name a few. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.

In 1974, Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook became the Western Open’s annual venue. Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities to be members.

This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill played host to the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a change of name was in order. The event name change to the BMW Championship. Along with the change, it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008 for the first time since 1962, the event was not played in the Chicago area as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012 it went to Indianapolis, Indiana, in 2013 it went for the first time to Conway Farms, site of last year’s BMW Championship. In 2014 it was played at Cherry Hills in Denver, going back to Conway Farms in 2015, Crooked Stick in 2016, and Conway Farms for the 2017 BMW Championship. In 2018 it was played at Aronimink and last year at Medinah.

This year the event is being played at Olympia Fields, and it will be a bit of an experiment. It started with the USGA always finding a way to hold the U.S. Open in the Chicago area. With all the demands for size to hold more fans, hospitality, and traffic, when the U.S. Open was held at Medinah in 1990, the USGA was looking for more. At first, they thought Cog Hill was the answer, but when the course was redone, they weren’t happy and decided to try Olympia Fields for the 2003 U.S. Open. Things didn’t go wrong, but the course was soft for the first three days, and that turned the USGA off. Despite Olympia Fields getting raves from players, the USGA dropped it from consideration. But the PGA Tour, also looking for different venues in the Chicago area are giving Olympia Fields a lookover. If things are successful, look for more events in future years to Olympia Fields.

Course information:

• Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
• Olympia Fields, Ill.
• 7,366 yards     Par 35-35–70

This year the BMW Championship goes to Olympia Fields C.C., which has been steep in major championship history. It held the U.S. Open in 1928 and 2003, the PGA Championship in 1925 and 1961, and the U.S. Senior Open in 1997. The North Course also held five Western Opens on it, the last being in 1971. In 1968 Olympia Fields held the Western Open that was won by Jack Nicklaus, but it was the first tournament that Tom Watson ever played in, and he made the cut. In 2003 when the U.S. Open staged the U.S. Open, it was a championship of two different courses. The first three rounds saw low scoring as conditions made the course play soft as Jim Furyk shot 67-66-67, his ten under par totaled by three. But on a windswept final round, he shot 72 to win by three over Stephen Leaney. This week, four in the field also played at Olympia Fields 17 years ago, Tiger Woods, who finished T-20th, Charles Howell III who finished T-53rd, Paul Casey and Adam Scott who missed the cut.

The last significant event held at Olympia Fields was the 2015 U.S. Amateur, which Bryson DeChambeau won, beating Derek Bard 7&6 in the finals. Many players that were in this amateur is also playing this week. Jon Rahm made it to the quarterfinals before losing to Derek Bard 1 up. Maverick McNealy and Robby Shelton made it to the round of 16. Others in the field that didn’t make it to match play were Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler.

Even though the course was laid out in the age of hickory golf in 1916 by Tom Bendelow, Wilie Park Jr was mostly responsible for its design. 12 of the 18 holes are located on the hilliest of the gently rolling land, not too steep but with enough elevation changes to make it challenging. A creek runs through the property but doesn’t come much into play. There are two holes with water, but I don’t expect them to come into play much. There are 85 bunkers and many guards the greens, which are 6,000 square feet in size. The greens have a lot of undulation and will be hard to putt. It will take an excellent putter to win. Most of the holes are straight away, and there aren’t many blind shots. The fairways are not only tree-lined, but the rough is severe, and all of the holes have fairway bunkers that have to be avoided. The course will favor a player who hits it straight, and length will play very little in this since the total yardage is 7,366. Not only is accuracy important off the tee, but hitting greens are essential because around the greens between sand, and high grass will make it difficult to get it up and down on greens missed. Of course, hitting it long will help, but if you stray off the fairway, it will create a cascade of problems in getting a par. The course has gone through many updates, first before the 1961 PGA Championship, then before 1968 Western Open and the biggest before the 2003 U.S. Open. In that update, architect Mark Mungem was given photos of what the course looked like in the 1920s and did his refurbishments in changing the greens and the bunkering to bring the course back to that look.

Scoring will be tough because there are only two par 5s, the 1st, 626 yards, and the 15th, which is 606 yards so they won’t be pushover birdie holes. Look for both holes to play just a notch under par for the week. As for the par 4s, of the 11 of the seven of them are over 450 yards, which will be impossible to get home on if you’re off the fairway. Now the weather has been rainy the last week so things will be soft. For the days of the championship, they are forecasting for it to be ok, hot on Thursday and Friday, and great over the weekend. If the course dries up, the winning score may not get into double digits for the first time since Memorial.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at the North Course at Olympia Fields:

So for the first time this year and the first time since the Accordia Golf Narashino C.C. was played last October for the Zozo Championship a new course is being used. Olympia Fields Country Club, which is located about 35 minutes south of Chicago will be the venue this week of the BMW Championship. Now the North Course of Olympia Fields has held its share of championships, including the 1928 and 2003 U.S. Open, the 1925 and 1961 PGA Championship, and five Western Opens, the last in 1971 won by Bruce Crampton. The course is a gem, laid out in 1916 when hickory clubs were the norm. The course is of the tradition of most courses built in the 1920s, parkland courses on rolling terrain with a stream roaming through. The course is tree-lined and very well bunkered and has rough, so driving the ball is important. You have to find the fairways because the greens are small targets to hit, with sand guarding the front part of them. The greens are 6,000 square feet in size with a lot of undulation and will be hard to putt. Making things even tougher, if you miss the green it’s like any course of the region, hard to get up and down to save par.

The course is a gem and has not been a part of the PGA Tour since it held the U.S. Open in 2003. Unfortunately, because the course was soft the first two days of play, scores were low which the USGA didn’t appreciate. So in making the course tougher, of course, conditions dried up and made the final round super hard. Since then the course has not played into the USGA’s future plans, but the PGA Tour in a search to find courses in the Chicago area is giving the course a try. Unfortunately, they won’t get to see how it plays with crowds, but if the course seems to hold up to the challenge, the players like it the odds will be that it comes back again sometime in the future.

Since we have very little data to base our conclusions on our four categories, we will take an educated guess on which stats will be needed to succeed this week at the BMW Championship. The things to watch for, Accuracy will be the key to winning at Olympia Fields, not only in driving accuracy but precious iron play into the greens. This is a course that will demand great shotmaker and when you miss a green you will have to show the skill of being able to handle both sand play and pitch shots from gnarly rough around the green. If that isn’t enough, a poor putter won’t cut it on this course. The greens have a lot of undulations and mounds, so good lag putting is required along with the nerves to be able to make most of those nasty five and six-footers. When Olympia Fields held the 2003 U.S. Open it played to a 72.38 scoring average with was the 6th hardest course on tour in 2003. The final round was played at 73.03 which shows how hard the course could play if the greens get baked and are sped up. I don’t expect that to happen, still an average of close to par would be just fine for the week.

So this is based on the most important stats for the Olympia Fields, based on what I feel is important and using data from all the players in this week’s field with stats from 2020. Of course, weather plays a factor in scoring and with the course being a bit wet, the temperature high and conditions soft, the scoring could be low. But I see very little rain in the forecast so the course will dry out each day and by the weekend it could be very firm and the greens very quick.
Since it’s important to not only keep it in the fairway but also drive it far I use a stat that is a bit old and not used much but I feel important Total Driving which adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week. In 2003 Jim Furyk won the U.S. Open and he did it with his ball-striking skills from tee to green. He was the 25th longest driver of the week and was 2nd in Driving Accuracy so a total of 27 ranked T-3rd for the week.
Our second category is Greens in Regulation, which is the number of greens hit from the fairway. In order to score and score well on this course, hitting greens is key. Jim Furyk showed that as a key in his victory as he hit 53 of the 72 greens and led that stat for the week.
Our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from not only the short grass but from the bunkers around the greens which have close to 50 of them around them. Those stats weren’t available in 2003 but Furyk was 16th in scrambling and T-1st in Sand Save Percentage.
Our last category is strokes Gained Putting. This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens and since putting is a key to winning at Olympia Fields I don’t see any stat better to end this stat look with.

*Total Driving: It adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from not only the short grass but from the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with stroke figure.

The 69 of the 70 players from this year’s field with stats from 2020 (Tiger Woods hasn’t played enough rounds for official stats):

(Also Webb Simpson has withdrawn due to exhaustion.  Says he will be ready for next week and the Tour Championship)

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 59 player stats for the BMW Championship

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,500
• Jon Rahm – $11,000
• Justin Thomas – $10,800
• Bryson DeChambeau – $10,600
• Rory McIlroy – $10,300
• Xander Schauffele – $9,900
• Daniel Berger – $9,700
• Collin Morikawa – $9,500
• Jason Day – $9,200
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,000

The good news for this week, no cut. Boy, I was decimated in making my DraftKings teams last week. I even had two teams with five of the six players missing the cut, which is unheard of. I pride myself on making sure all my players are able and should make the cut. When five of six happen, something weird is happening.

This week off the bat, we see that Webb Simpson decided not to play, feeling it was better to go home, relax, practice, and be ready for East Lake. In a way that may change a lot of people’s way of thinking, I thought Olympia Fields would be suitable for Webb. Guess will never find out.

Dustin Johnson is $11,500, and frankly, I have to think he will do well. This is a lot like courses he has won on, and I can’t see him getting beat. But again, things aren’t the same, so anything is possible, but Dustin is my guy. Jon Rahm is $11,000, and he too is a great choice, he is starting to play well, and this course should be good for him. Hey, Rahm makes the quarterfinals of the 2015 U.S. Amateur, so he played the course well back then. Justin Thomas, at $10,800, is a hard choice. He is the defending champion on a course similar to this won. But still other than the WGC-FedEx St. Jude win, he didn’t play well at Memorial or the PGA Championship or last week. I say give him another week to get things going again. Bryson DeChambeau is $10,600, and you have a big choice. He won the 2015 U.S. Amateur on this course, so he likes it, but he is a different player now, and frankly, I don’t think he is thinking right now, it showed last week in him missing the cut. Do I think he will play well, no. But don’t figure he will play terrible, probably be like he was at the PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy at $10,300 is probably a waste, last week he admitted something that great players hate to say, that he is lost. So it’s best not to pick him. Xander Schauffele, at $9,900, is a tough pick. He did well finishing T-3rd at Aronimink in this event in 2018, that course is a lot like Olympia Fields, so he is a yes. Daniel Berger, at $9,700, is also the right choice, was 2nd in this event in 2015, and he is playing great, was 3rd last week at the Northern Trust. Collin Morikawa is $9,500, and I like his chances despite missing the cut last week and back in the 2015 U.S. Amateur at Olympia Fields. The only thing that worries me is the greens. They may be too harsh for him. Jason Day at $9,200 is a no for me. The course is just too much for him also worried that he missed the cut last week and played in nine events during the previous 11 weeks, for a player with a back like him that’s a lot of golf. Scottie Scheffler is $9,000 and the right choice since he was T-4th at both the PGA Championship and the Northern Trust.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Patrick Cantlay, at $8,900, could be the right choice this week. Last year was 2nd but frankly has not played well since the Workday. He has been very inconsistent, and he probably won’t have enough this week, probably best to pass on him. Patrick Reed is $8,800, and even though there are no signs to take him, this could be the week. He is right on these types of courses, and I can see him making enough points to make it worth your time. Tiger Woods is $8,600, and he has five wins in this event. But they were on Cog Hill, but this course should be good for Tiger. I like him for one reason, he shot 66 in the final round at Northern Trust, so maybe he found something. Watch out for Kevin Kisner at $8,400. He was T-9th last year at Medinah, but what I like is since the 3rd round of the PGA Championship, he has played great and is at 40 under in those ten rounds. Also, like Harris English at $8,300, he looked great last week at the Northern Trust the only thing I worry about his track record on this kind of courses like Olympia Fields isn’t great, but he looked great last week and think it will carry over. Adam Scott is $8,200 and does well on tough courses as Olympia Fields. He played the course in 2003, missing the cut. He has only played two events since the break, which has shown and has mixed rounds, but this could be a good week for him. It may be a good time to look at Billy Horschel at $8,000. Yes, he missed the cut last week but was 2nd at Wyndham, which is more of a course like Olympia Fields than TPC Boston. Russell Henley is $7,800, and he has done well of last, T-9th at Wyndham and T-8th at Northern Trust. Abraham Ancer is $7,700 and hasn’t played well but still thinks his game is close.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the BMW Championship

Digging in the bottom of the barrel and we will be looking for guys to make a lot of birdies.  Matt Kuchar is $7,400 and does well on these parkland type of courses.

Here are some of the secrets that it will take to play well this week at the BMW Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• So a big hitter doesn’t have the advantage and it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  Jim Furyk won the 2003 U.S. Open and he didn’t hit it far but hit lots of fairways (ranked 2ne) and did lead in greens hit.  So we want to find someone that will do the same things this week.  So short hitters may have a great shot this week.
• If you want to see who can win, just look at the winners at courses like Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, Colonial, Sedgefield, or even a modern course like Bay Hill.  I would almost bet the farm that whoever wins this week, will also have a title from one of those courses.
• A player that hit’s it straight and keeps it out of the rough.  Yes, the length will help but you want a player that hits it straight and long.
• Sharp iron play will also help along with the imagination when you do get in trouble.  The key is to be peaking about Wednesday right before the start of the championship. That’s what happened last week in Dustin Johnson’s remarkable runaway win.
• Look for good putters to have a significant advantage because Olympia Fields’s undulated greens should be dried out.  Monday will produce a lot of rain, but it will be dry the rest of the week making the greens hard.
• Also, the winner will be a good scrambler.  It’s going to be impossible to hit every green and for those that can get it up and down, they will be rewarded.