BlogCharles Schwab Challenge Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Championship gave us a lot of great stories. In my preview last week, I did get it right, saying that a marquee player would win (We can call Justin a marquee player, right?). But I got a lot wrong. The biggest was the assumption that Scottie Scheffler was going to win. Boy, was I dead wrong on not only that, but Scottie didn’t even make the cut. I shake my head at that. Sure, players miss cuts all the time, but for the #1 player in the world just off four wins in two months, sorry, that should never happen.

I was spoiled. Since Tiger Woods played in his first U.S. Amateur at Muirfield Village in 1992, I have witnessed some unbelievable golf. I and many others watching Tiger got spoiled. We watched Tiger win title after title after title. If he didn’t win, he was damn close and in contention. What Scottie Scheffler did last week at Southern Hills, missing the cut is something that we never saw happen in the Tiger Woods world. We got utterly hyped that Scheffler called Southern Hills one of his favorite courses. He won college events on the course and, most of all, shot 63 last month in practice round. All of this hype between the four wins and all of the background of Scheffler loving Southern Hills. It was a bit like all of the buildup of Tiger going to the 2000 British Open at St. Andrews. Could you picture if Tiger showed up at St. Andrews and missed the cut instead of winning? I got that feeling with Scheffler looking like a complete hack last week. Over the last decade, we have seen this story a half dozen times on players looking to be one of the greats and falling flat on their faces. Look at Jordan Speith and his problems after looking like a superstar. Look at Justin Thomas and talk about him before winning at Southern Hills. Or how about Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, or even our most recent superstars Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland. We have seen this story time after time after time.

Lots of reasons for all of this, especially for you and me and our betting dollars. But I can sum it up in just one word, “Life.”

We see what happens when success comes to a golfer. He automatically goes from coach to first-class when he wins on the PGA Tour. When a player wins a major, he goes from coach to NetJets. The difference between many winners on the PGA Tour and Tiger Woods, when Tiger won, he would celebrate for a few hours, and when he woke up the following day, it was time to practice and think about how he was going to win his next event.

A person from IMG told me a story that showed how Tiger was. He had just won at Torrey Pines and was with his entourage and his former wife, Elin Nordegren. They were having a private celebration when Tiger tried to end things. When Tiger wanted to stop, Elin stepped in, and an argument happened. The point Elin was trying to make is, hey Tiger, you should let your guard down and spend a few days enjoying his accomplishment. But for Tiger, there was no time to enjoy, he had to get ready for his next conquest.

That is what happens to many that achieve success on the PGA Tour. Instead of continuing to work hard after success, a player would rather make a call to Netjets and be whisked off to some enchanted sun-drenched island. In the case of Scottie, he went home to Texas and just relaxed. Sure he practiced some in-between throwing out first pitches at Texas Ranger game or going to watch the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs. He went home after winning the Masters and just hung out for four weeks before getting ready to play in the Byron Nelson. To be honest with Scottie, since I don’t know his day-to-day agenda after the Masters, I am not pointing any fingers, saying that he should have been working hard instead of relaxing. But let’s be frank on one thing. His game was scorching at the time, worst than a five-alarm fire. It seems that the scorching fire was put out during the time at home. By the time he started playing again at the Nelson, maybe the warning signs were out in his T-15th finish. Still, there were no indications that Scheffler would miss the cut.

Same with Justin Thomas, who won the PGA Championship. He was in the right place at the right time when Mito Pereira wilted and was able to capitalize by winning a major championship. For Pereira, it was a shocking conclusion to what should have been a big victory. We have heard the cliché phrase that TV announcers make when a player misses a big putt on the final hole to lose a title. “Oh no, that putt just cost Joe Pro zillions of dollars.” I can say that the combination of Pereira’s missed putt for birdie at 17 and then the drive into the water at 18 cost the youngster $2 million, the difference between the winner’s check and finishing T-3rd. Hopefully, this won’t leave any scars on the Young Chilean player.

The same for Will Zalatoris, who lost another playoff and finished 2nd. Have to say that Zalatoris had the spunk that Tiger Woods has. After he missed the cut at the Byron Nelson, he went straight to the range and found out what was wrong. I also like his answer to CBS turning a negative into a positive, saying that his 2nd place finish proves he belongs there, and it’s close for him to win a big title.

Funny showing how vulnerable we all are in gambling, I am in a huge pick-your-pro pool in which we draft different players each week. Out of the 40 of us each week, $300 is awarded to the person who picks the player with the highest finish of the 39 other player picks. To be “Skin eligible,” you have to be the only person with that pick. If no one wins, which happens a lot, the money is rolled over just like the giant Powerball lottery. Already we have nine turnovers, and my pick at the Nelson was Zalatoris, who missed the cut. If your player misses the cut, you have to pay $100 to the pot. Guess who I picked at the PGA? Of course, Scottie Scheffler, and it cost me another 100 bucks.

Guess that’s why they call it “gambling.”

Tiger and his plight

One last disappointment was seeing Tiger Woods have to withdraw on Saturday night. He showed moments of glory like his Friday 69, but the combination of a quick turnaround from Friday to Saturday didn’t give him enough time to prepare his body for a frigid Saturday morning. With him withdrawing, he has brought up all of the Monday Quarterbacks, saying that he shouldn’t have tried to play in the PGA and maybe should skip the U.S. Open. I have always thought that St. Andrews and the British Open are Tiger’s best shot to contend. The course won’t put much demand on his surgically fixed legs. Let’s face realities, Tiger showed his physical fragility on Saturday, but as each day, week and month go by, Tiger will get stronger. I am looking forward to watching Tiger play at St. Andrews, and I know that he will do what is best for him in playing the U.S. Open.

Things you need to know about The Charles Schwab Challenge and Colonial:

This is the 75th year of Charles Schwab Challenge. Commonly referred to as the Colonial National, it’s not the oldest event on the PGA Tour in longevity, several events have been played longer. As for the same course, Augusta National, and the Masters can claim to have been played on the same course longer on the PGA Tour, with Colonial being the second longest length of a course for a tournament. Colonial does have one distinction it’s the only course in America that has hosted the U.S. Open (1941), the Players Championship (1975) and the U.S. Women’s Open (1991).

The tournament got started in 1946 when it was apparent that the USGA wasn’t going to make Colonial an annual stop. The event was the inspiration of John Marvin Leonard, who operated a store in downtown Fort Worth and wanted to see the best golfers in the world play on his course. Having Ben Hogan win its first two events, gave the event and the course the recognition that it needed.

Hogan went on to win five times at Colonial, and the course got the name “Hogan’s Alley.” At one time, Hogan practically held every record of the tournament. In the 21 times Hogan played at Colonial, his highest finish was a T-56th in his last appearance in 1970 at the age of 58. Over Hogan’s career, he won 54 tournaments, with the last victory coming in the 1959 Colonial. One of Hogan’s most enduring records at Colonial was the 65 he shot in the 3rd round in 1948. It took seven years for someone to tie the record when Chandler Harper did it in 1955, and it took 22 years for someone to beat the record when Dale Douglass did it with his 63 in 1970. Hogan loved Colonial and became a due paying member of the club. So it’s no surprise that the greatest of Ben Hogan’s life and golf career is celebrated in the Hogan Room with an audio-visual presentation of his career and some memories of his career including clubs and replicas of all the trophies and medals.

Now the history of Ben Hogan and Colonial didn’t start with his win in 1946. It was started in the early 1930s when a young Ben Hogan decided to play on the PGA Tour. He received financial backing from Marvin Leonard, the man who built Colonial. Hogan wasn’t a big success; many times he was forced to drop off tour and take a job to earn enough money to rejoin the tour. However, as soon as Hogan began making money on tour he offered to settle his account with Leonard, who told him to forget about the money. However, in the 1950s, Hogan was able to pay back Leonard in an even bigger way. After Hogan launched the Ben Hogan golf equipment company, he offered Leonard the opportunity to purchase 50 percent of the company. Leonard seized the opportunity and along with Hogan made a handsome profit when the company was sold to AMF in 1960.

The Colonial Country Club was the vision of Leonard, a native of Fort Worth. He was considered a “workaholic” in the 1920s when his doctor told him he needed to slow down his pace. Leonard turned to golf and joined Glen Garden Golf Club and Rivercrest Country Club, the best courses of the time in Fort Worth. As Leonards interest in golf grew, he became more interested in all aspects of the course, including the types of grass. In the south, Bentgrass was thought to be impossible to grow, so all of the courses in Texas were Bermuda, which tended to be bumpy. Leonard thought it would be a good idea to have bent grass and in trying to get Rivercrest to change the club president got tired of the requests and told him, Marvin, if you’re so sold on bentgrass, why don’t you go build your own golf course and put it on that course?” So in 1934, Leonard did just that.

He acquired 157 acres in Southwest Fort Worth and hired golf architect John Bredemus to build him a championship course. On January 29, 1936, the course was opened, and many thought it could be one of the most magnificent courses in the world. In the late 30s, Leonard also felt that Colonial was the best and lobbied the USGA to hold the U.S. Open at Colonial. Even though the Open was never played in the South, when Leonard offered $25,000 to hold the event at Colonial, it was given the 1941 Open. To make sure that the course withstood the challenge of the best players in the world in 1940 he called in Perry Maxwell to redo holes 3, 4 & 5.

Even with the rain that hampered the Open it was a big success and plans to start a yearly tournament at Colonial were talked about but plans were put on hold because of World War II. When the war ended, the club decided to hold the Colonial National Invitational and to add some prestige offered a purse of $15,000, the third-largest sum on the PGA Tour. With a first-place check of $3,000 awaiting the winner, a field of 32 players teed off with Ben Hogan winning. Since then 74 Colonial’s have been held with the course pretty much the same as it was in 1941, with some minor revisions that were implemented in 1969 when several holes along the Trinity River were damaged by flooding.

One of the biggest distinctions of the Charles Schwab is the number of great players who have won it. In the 74 years of this event, 60 different players have won. Of those 60, 30 have won a major championship, and out of all of the winners, 16 are in the World Golf Hall of Fame, so this event has a great resume of past champions. Every great shotmaker from the last 75 years has won at Colonial (with the exception of Tiger Woods). The list includes Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Julius Boros, Gene Littler, Roberto De Vicenzo, Lanny Wadkins, Nick Price, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Justin Rose, Ben Crenshaw, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson to name a few.

Now this event almost was lost when tournament host Dean & Deluca begged out of their sponsorship a few years early. Frankly, when I heard that Dean & Deluca was sponsoring a tournament in Texas, it made no sense. You see Dean & Deluca is a bunch of high-end stores like Whole Foods or Wegmans, but they are mostly in the New York area. They were planning on putting one in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but when those plans went away, so did Dean & Deluca on the PGA Tour. As we can see with tournaments like Houston, you could be rolling along in great shape, but then your sponsor decides it’s not worth the $10 million a year investment, that event is in trouble. The good news, the Colonial found a new sponsor in time for the 2018 and with Charles Schwab will continue on the PGA Tour as they have signed on to 2026.

Course information:

• Colonial Country Club
• Fort Worth, Texas
• 7,209 yards     Par 35-35–70
• The Colonial has a 75.1 rating and slope rating of 138 from the championship tees. The course is very private. The tees, Fairways and rough are BermudaGrass while the greens are Bent.
• It was designed and built by John Bredemus, with Perry Maxwell doing some touch-up work and opened in 1936.  There were some minor revisions in 1969 to some of the holes to prevent flooding from the nearby Trinity River.
• In 2000, the club completed a two-year course renovation, which started in November of 1998 when they installed a new irrigation system.  The primary work was done in rebuilding all 18 greens with new A-4 bentgrass.  They also redesigned and rebuilt all the 84 bunkers, giving them a new definition so that they will be seen from tees and fairways.
• All of the green and bunker work were done three weeks after the 1999 tournament ended with the membership not having the full course reopen until April 1st of 2000. Club has also planted close to hundred trees that won’t be in play but in years to come will help define the holes.
• We usually don’t talk about technology in golf but when we talk about Colonial one of the reasons for it losing its fear factor is technology.  Colonial is one of golf’s treasured layouts that can’t keep up with technology.  The course sits next to the Trinty River on the north and houses on the East, South, and West of it, so there is no way to add any yardage.  So the course is at the mercy of mother nature, if it gets windy the course will play tough, but if not it’s easy.  We go more into detail on this later.
• This course for years was feared by all the touring pros; if you look at the winning score pre-1996, you saw years in which the winner was 7, 8, 9 and 10 under.  However, starting in 1997 every year but two (8 under in 1999 and 9 under in 2014) saw scores in the double digits for the winners showing how easy the course got.
• One advantage the course has being short, most of the holes at Colonial are doglegs so the driver is taken out of the hands of players which means most of the holes you have to lay up meaning more players hit more fairways.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Colonial.

This is based on the most important stats for Colonial, based on data from last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Colonial was 70.21, making it the 18th hardest course last year. The year before, it played three-quarters of a shot easier, mainly because it was played a month later as the course was dry, with no winds. That is the key for this course if there is no wind, it plays much easier, but with wind, like in 2019, it played to a 70.86 and was the 7th hardest course of the year. In 2018 with favorable wind conditions and a soft course, it played a 69.83 average, T-20th in course rankings. In 2017, Colonial was 71.15 (lots of wind every day), making it the 7th hardest course on Tour that year as the course played over a shot a round over par. In 2016 Colonial was 70.20, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour, a quarter of a shot over par and almost a half a shot harder than the course played in 2015 when it was 69.78 and the 21st hardest course to score on in 2015. So why the difference? Rain and wind in 2015, they had flooding conditions the week before the tournament, and the course was very wet. On top of that, winds averaged between 10-15 mph. In 2016 the course didn’t have as much rain, and winds blew up to 20 mph the first three days and calmed a bit for the final round. But in 2017, winds blew each day at around 20 mph, which made the course play very tough, the hardest it’s played since 2002 when the course played to a 71.21 average and ranked 6th on tour. So as we can see, mother nature and wind dictate how tough each Charles Schwab Challenge will be.

Colonial Country Club is a relic of a bygone era in which accuracy off the tee makes precision shotmaking to the greens essential. On top of that, when the course is dry with lots of run, put in some wind, and it can play tough. But with no wind and wet conditions, you will see many birdies and eagles, which has happened over the years. You can’t overpower this course. In past years, you didn’t see long ball hitters like Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Luke List, and J.B. Holmes here. But Bryson DeChambeau showed the vulnerability of Colonial Country Club in 2020. With his newfound power, DeChambeau could fly over the trees and cut off the doglegs. For four days at Colonial Country Club, DeChambeau flexed his muscles with 19 drives of 330 or more yards. DeChambeau missed a short putt at 17, making bogey, and was a shot back of the Daniel Berger/Collin Morikawa playoff at the end of the day. What DeChambeau did was lay out the groundwork for an all-out assault on Colonial Country Club. Surprisingly after what happened last year, DaChambeau decided not to play last year but, for the time being, is in the field this week.

Every great shotmaker from the last 75 years has won at Colonial (except for Tiger Woods), as Justin Rose was added to the list in 2018, which includes Hogan, Nicklaus, Snead, Boros, Littler, Wadkins, Price, Trevino, Casper, Watson, Scott and Mickelson to name a few. In looking at the key to playing well at Colonial, the most important stat is Ball Striking (which the PGA Tour doesn’t include in course stats). Looking at the list for 2021, the odds are a player in the top-30 of that list
http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.158.html
will come out on top this week. Just look at the list. Some of the players at the top in the field include Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Lucas Glover, and Mito Pereira, to name those in the top-12.

So who will win this week? Tell you this, it will be a guy with a lot of fitness and a sharp iron player. So why is this so important in a time when overpowering courses are the norm? There is no room to add yardage to Colonial. Since the course opened in 1946, only 169 yards have been added. With 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s being doglegs, players have to throttle back and hit fairway woods and irons to keep it in play, especially when the course is dry with a lot of run. So hitting it long gives you no advantage because length means nothing when you have to lay up, so short drivers will be in the same part of the fairway as long hitters. That is why players like Corey Pavin, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, and Daniel Berger have won this event.
In looking at our four categories, Fairway Accuracy is crucial. Last year, Colonial was the 16th hardest course to get into the fairway, while last year’s winner Jason Kokrak was 4th in fairway hit. Our second stat is greens in regulation, last year, Colonial ranked 15th while Kokrak ranked 2nd in this stat, hitting 54 of 72 greens. Since 2001, five of the winners have led this stat to show the importance of this stat, and in the last five years, Kevin Na and Justin Rose led the stat, 2017 Kevin Kisner was 2nd with Berger T-4th in 2020.
Our third stat is Par Breakers. Last year Colonial ranked 10th overall, while Kokrak was 1st in this stat. Our last stat is Strokes Gained Putting, as Kokrak was 7th in this stat. As Colonial doesn’t keep track of that stat tournament-wise, I can tell you this: six of the last 20 winners have led in the total number of strokes, so putting is very important.
Another essential element for this year is the weather, last year, it was good. But for this week, coming up will see temperatures in the high 80s with winds of only 10 mph the first two days, but starting on Saturday morning, it will blow over 22 mph. There isn’t supposed to be any rain other than a popup Thunderstorms over the weekend. So that will mean very fast, dry conditions, and with some wind, the course will play super-tough
With conditions like this, you won’t have any “non-marquee” type of winner, the man who wins on Sunday will be a player who has won before and many times on the PGA Tour.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of times a drive is in the fairway.

*Greens in regulation: Tells us which players hit the most greens during the week

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so parbreakers are the percent of time scores are under par.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

The 112 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to any 112 player stats for the Charles Schwab

DraftKings tips

Of the 120 in the field, 91 have played at least once at Colonial in the Charles Schwab since 2010.

• Jordan Spieth is 85 under in 36 rounds, playing 9 years
• Kevin Na is 53 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Zach Johnson is 47 under in 44 rounds, playing 12 years
• Charley Hoffman is 34 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Brian Harman is 33 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Kevin Kisner is 33 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Justin Rose is 33 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Tony Finau is 29 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Chris Kirk is 28 under in 40 rounds, playing 10 years
• Danny Lee is 28 under in 30 rounds, playing 8 years
• Brandt Snedeker is 28 under in 36 rounds, playing 9 years
• Patrick Reed is 22 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 20 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Collin Morikawa is 20 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Ryan Palmer is 20 under in 40 rounds, playing 12 years
• Rory Sabbatini is 19 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
• Bill Haas is 18 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Webb Simpson is 17 under in 14 rounds, playing 5 years
• Jason Kokrak is 16 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Maverick McNealy is 14 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Abraham Ancer is 13 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Daniel Berger is 13 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Russell Knox is 13 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Justin Thomas is 13 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• John Huh is 11 under in 22 rounds, playing 7 years
• Gary Woodland is 11 under in 11 rounds, playing 3 years
• Stewart Cink is 10 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Sebastian Munoz is 9 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years
• Billy Horschel is 8 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Viktor Hovland is 8 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Collin Morikawa is 20 under, playing 2 years (-10.0)
• Jordan Spieth is 85 under, playing 9 years (-9.4)
• Justin Rose is 33 under, playing 5 years (-6.6)
• Justin Thomas is 13 under, playing 2 years (-6.5)
• Kevin Na is 53 under, playing 10 years (-5.3)
• Tony Finau is 29 under, playing 6 years (-4.8)
• Maverick McNealy is 14 under, playing 3 years (-4.7)
• Sebastian Munoz is 9 under, playing 2 years (-4.5)
• Patrick Reed is 22 under, playing 5 years (-4.4)
• Kevin Kisner is 33 under, playing 8 years (-4.1)
• Zach Johnson is 47 under, playing 12 years (-3.9)
• Brian Harman is 33 under, playing 9 years (-3.7)
• Gary Woodland is 11 under, playing 3 years (-3.7)
• Danny Lee is 28 under, playing 8 years (-3.5)
• Charley Hoffman is 34 under, playing 10 years (-3.4)
• Webb Simpson is 17 under, playing 5 years (-3.4)
• Emiliano Grillo is 20 under, playing 6 years (-3.3)
• Abraham Ancer is 13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
• Daniel Berger is 13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
• Brandt Snedeker is 28 under, playing 9 years (-3.1)
• Chris Kirk is 28 under, playing 10 years (-2.8)
• Troy Merritt is 8 under, playing 3 years (-2.7)
• Jason Kokrak is 16 under, playing 7 years (-2.3)
• Russell Knox is 13 under, playing 6 years (-2.2)
• Bill Haas is 18 under, playing 9 years (-2.0)
• Billy Horschel is 8 under, playing 4 years (-2.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,200
• Justin Thomas – $11,000
• Collin Morikawa – $10,700
• Jordan Spieth – $10,400
• Will Zalatoris – $10,100
• Viktor Hovland – $10,000
• Sam Burns – $9,700
• Max Homa – $9,400
• Abraham Ancer – $9,300
• Sungjae Im – $9,200
• Tony Finau – $9,100
• Daniel Berger – $9,000

After seeing what happened at the PGA Championship, it’s going to be hard to pick players this week.  You will notice a lot of what happened last week, won’t pertain.  An example of that was Will Zalatoris missing the cut at the Byron Nelson and then finding his game just a couple of days later to finish 2nd at Southern Hill.  So there is no real rhyme or reason to pick this week.

Off the bat we have to make a decision on Scottie Scheffler at $11,200.  He is a really great player who could of just falling off track last week and find some magic this week.  I don’t think that will be the case.  The signs are he may hit the ball too far at Colonial and get in trouble after that.  Just the fact that in two starts at Colonial he finished T-55th in 2020 and missed the cut last year.  Based on that, I say no to picking him this week.  Justin Thomas at $11,000 is coming off a big high from his PGA Championship win and he has played well at Colonial finishing T-40th last year and T-10th in 2020.  I also say yes that in past events he has won, he has been able to play well in his next start so think of the train keep rolling along.  I was a bit surprise that DraftKings priced Collin Morikawa at $10,700.  He has played well at Colonial, was 2nd in 2020 and T-14th last year, still he is in a bit of a slump since the Masters and we just wondering if that effects Morikawa this week.  I really like Jordan Spieth at $10,400, in nine visits to the Charles Schwab he has a win, three seconds.  In those nine visits he has seven top ten and his worst finish was a T-32nd in 2018.  He will be fine this week.  The same with Will Zalatoris at $10,100, he has some feelings that he wants and should win soon, it could be this week at Colonial, his game is that good and poor putters have won at Colonial.  Viktor Hovland at $10,000 is a different story, his game is marred in a slump since the Players Championship, he will make the cut but not contend.  Sam Burns at $9,700 is also a no for me, hasn’t played well at Colonial and has not played well since winning the Valspar.  Max Homa at $9,400 is a tough one to judge.  Has not played well at Colonial, in three starts his only made cut was T-27th in 2019.  But he has played well of late, was T-13th at the PGA and does well on tough courses, he may be a sleeper.  The same with Abraham Ancer at $9,300, he has a pair of 14th place finishes in 2020 & ’21.  He was T-9th at the PGA Championship so maybe Colonial will be good to him.  Sungjae Im at $9,200 is a no for me, yes he was T-10th in 2020 but missed the cut in 2019 and last year.  Also he could be hurt, he was a last minute withdraw from the PGA and hasn’t played well since the Masters.  Tony Finau at $9,100 is a no, yes he was runner-up in 2019 but was T-23th in ’20 and T-20th last year.  Yes he has made his last six cuts in a row, was T-2nd at Mexico, but don’t think his game will do well at Colonial this week.  Daniel Berger at $9,000 is a yes for me, he won in 2020 and was T-20th last year.  I know that he missed the cut at the PGA Championship and he could be nursing his back that has given him problems this year.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Heritage on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Heritage starts:

• Jordan Spieth made 9 cuts in 9 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10400.
• Justin Rose made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7700.
• Maverick McNealy made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7500.
• Brandt Snedeker made 9 cuts in 9 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6200.
• Gary Woodland made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7900.
• Tony Finau made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9100.
• Abraham Ancer made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9300.
• Billy Horschel made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8500.
• Chris Kirk made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7900.
• Mark Hubbard made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6400.
• Charley Hoffman made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6500.
• Brian Harman made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7800.
• Bill Haas made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6200.
• Danny Lee made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 6300.
• Brian Stuard made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 6600.
• Cameron Tringale made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 7500.
• Robert Streb made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6000.
• Emiliano Grillo made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7000.
• Zach Johnson made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6400.
• Ian Poulter made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7200.
• Patrick Reed made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7400.
• Kevin Na made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8100.
• Talor Gooch made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8900.
• Kevin Kisner made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7400.
• Daniel Berger made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9000.
• Erik Compton made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6000.
• Rory Sabbatini made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6700.
• Jason Dufner made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6200.
• Jason Kokrak made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Talor Gooch at $8,900 is a player to watch, he was T-14th last year, but has been consistent this year.  He was T-20th last week at the PGA.  For some odd reason I really like Webb Simpson at $8,700.  He has missed the cut four of his six starts but at the same time he was 5th in 2017 and T-3rd in 2016.  The course should be in his wheelhouse and he has gotten over his neck surgery back at the first of the year and he seems to show signs of good play.  He had a third-round 65 last week at Southern Hills finishing T-20th and in the back of my mind I thought he will be in contention soon at some event, possibly Colonial.  Mito Pereira at $8,600 is a tough call, we don’t know how he will bounce back from last week.  Has never played at Colonial, I say there is too much scar tissue to pick him this week.  Davis Riley at $8,400 is a great pick, in Colonial for the first time but of late playing great, was T-13th at the PGA, T-9th at the Byron Nelson, 5th in Mexico and T-4th at Zurich.  Kevin Na at $8,100 is a thought, he is a past winner and has played ok this year, was T-23rd at the PGA.  Chris Kirk at $7,900 won the Charles Schwab in 2015 and has made 11 of 11 cuts so he is worth a look.  Also like that he was T-5th last week at Southern Hills.  Justin Rose is also a thought at 7,700, he won at Colonial and also finished 3rd.  But since missing the cut at the Masters he was T-14th at Zurich and T-13th last week at Southern Hills.

Any bargains out there?

Looking for those diamonds in the rough?  Not many, ne is Maverick McNealy at $7,500, he was T-20th last year at Colonial and been up and down this year. Another is Stewart Cink at $7,100 he can do what he did last year at Heritage and win at Colonial, a course he finished T-2nd at in 2000 and T-4th in 2006.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Charles Schwab Challenge:

Key stat for the winner:

• Experience at Colonial seems to be an essential part of winning.  Since 1996, 23 players have won at Colonial and have a total of 273 victories, so that means an average of 12.2 wins for each of the champions.  Last year’s winner Jason Kokrak won twich, Daniel Berger and 2019 champion Kevin Na won for the 3rd time and all won again within six months, Kokrak at Houston, Berger at the AT&T and Na at the Shriners Hospitals.  2018 winner Justin Rose won two other times after winning the Colinial, 2016 champion Jordan Spieth won for the 8th time while 2014 champion Adam Scott won for the 11th time.  In 2012 Zach Johnson won for the 8th time in his career as winners range from Tom Watson with 34 wins and Nick Price with 18 to Sergio Garcia who made Colonial his first PGA Tour win in 2001.  The fact is rookies don’t win at Colonial.  Yes, Sergio Garcia got his first PGA Tour win at Colonial but he had won in Europe.  The same with the next first-time winner Ian Baker-Finch in 1989, he had won in Australia.  In looking at the 75-year history of the Charles Schwab, only eight first winners have done the deed, that tells us to look for an experienced person to win.

Some other keys:

• Look at all of the champions; you will see one thing in common, they are accurate drivers of the ball, which historically has been very important in winning at Colonial.  The bottom line is wild drivers don’t win here.  Now, of course, there is always an exception to the rule, in 2016 Jordan Spieth only hit 38 fairways and ranked T-54th.  The previous year Chris Kirk only hit 28 fairways and ranked T-60th while in 2007 Rory Sabbatini only hit 29 fairways and ranked T60th.   However, last year Daniel Berger was T-17th, the same with Kevin Na. In 2018 Justin Rouse was 6th in driving accuracy, in 2017 Kevin Kisner hit 40 fairways and ranked 1st getting us back to the era of between 1998 and 2005 when all the winners didn’t rank higher than 9th in fairway accuracy, with seven of them being in the top-five. Driving accuracy is still critical in winning this event.
• An important stat to look at to gauge the champion this week is strokes gained tee-to-green.
• Look at this list of players for 2021 in strokes gained tee-to-green, I feel that one of those in the top-30 of this list will probably be the winner this week.  1st on the list is Will Zalatoris, 2nd on the list is Justin Thomas, 7th on the list is Chris Kirk, 8th on the list is Jordan Spieth and 14th on the list is Daniel Berger.
• Shot-making is almost a lost art, and if you look at all of the champions in this millennium, all of them were great shotmakers.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.  Now there is another way, if you don’t hit greens, that is scrambling.  Last year Jordan Spieth may not have been among the leaders in Scrambling, but he was 2nd in greens hit. Look at the chart below of the last eleven winners, in looking at the two stats hitting greens or scrambling, and you will see a key for winning.
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Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in Texas can sometimes be iffy in May. But this week is going to be one of the most consistent weeks, every day will be between 88 and 95, but look for the high winds on Saturday and Sunday